The Zeitgeist List · history

The perception gap.

The AP poll has ranked Northwestern about 29 spots better than they actually played, on average, across 5 ranked seasons.

Mean rank gap, production minus final poll rank

Northwesternn=5+29.0Cincinnatin=6+22.7Georgia Techn=6+20.8Iowan=9+19.3Arizona Staten=5+16.4Michigan Staten=8+16.0Pittsburghn=5+12.8UCLAn=5+12.6BYUn=8+11.6Oklahoma Staten=11+10.8Nebraskan=7+9.1Boise Staten=13+8.8Oklahoman=17-0.4Ole Missn=7-0.4South Carolinan=6-0.8Florida Staten=11-1.1Texas A&Mn=9-1.1Floridan=12-1.2Texasn=12-1.2Alabaman=19-1.3Clemsonn=15-1.3Georgian=17-2.8Mississippi Staten=5-4.8LSUn=17-5.5

Positive (gold) = the poll ranked them better than production did. Negative (blue) = the poll undersold them relative to production. Showing the 24 biggest gaps in either direction, of 45 programs that cleared the 5+ ranked-season floor.

Per-team detail

Northwestern +29.0 mean gap · 5 seasons
#1#25#6720082012201520172020pollproduction

2015 · final poll rank #12 · production rank #67 · 10-3

Cincinnati +22.7 mean gap · 6 seasons
#1#25#50200720082009201920202021pollproduction

2009 · final poll rank #4 · production rank #44 · 12-1

Georgia Tech +20.8 mean gap · 6 seasons
#1#25#51200520062008200920142025pollproduction

2008 · final poll rank #15 · production rank #51 · 9-4

Iowa +19.3 mean gap · 9 seasons
#1#25#56200420052009201520162019202020212023pollproduction

2015 · final poll rank #6 · production rank #47 · 12-2

Arizona State +16.4 mean gap · 5 seasons
#1#25#5020042007201320142024pollproduction

2007 · final poll rank #13 · production rank #39 · 10-3

Michigan State +16.0 mean gap · 8 seasons
#1#25#5020082010201120132014201520172021pollproduction

2010 · final poll rank #7 · production rank #43 · 11-2

Pittsburgh +12.8 mean gap · 5 seasons
#1#25#5120042008200920162021pollproduction

2004 · final poll rank #19 · production rank #51 · 8-4

UCLA +12.6 mean gap · 5 seasons
#1#25#5020052012201320142022pollproduction

2005 · final poll rank #11 · production rank #42 · 10-2

BYU +11.6 mean gap · 8 seasons
#1#25#5020062007200820092020202120242025pollproduction

2021 · final poll rank #12 · production rank #41 · 10-3

Oklahoma State +10.8 mean gap · 11 seasons
#1#25#5520082009201020112013201520162017201920212023pollproduction

2015 · final poll rank #13 · production rank #55 · 10-3

Nebraska +9.1 mean gap · 7 seasons
#1#25#582006200920102011201220142016pollproduction

2016 · final poll rank #24 · production rank #58 · 9-4

Boise State +8.8 mean gap · 13 seasons
#1#25#502004200620072008200920102011201220142017201820192024pollproduction

2019 · final poll rank #18 · production rank #40 · 12-2

Oklahoma -0.4 mean gap · 17 seasons
#1#25#5020042006200720082010201120122013201520162017201820192020202120232025pollproduction

2011 · final poll rank #19 · production rank #8 · 10-3

Ole Miss -0.4 mean gap · 7 seasons
#1#25#502008201420152021202320242025pollproduction

2021 · final poll rank #8 · production rank #25 · 10-3

South Carolina -0.8 mean gap · 6 seasons
#1#25#50201020112012201320222024pollproduction

2022 · final poll rank #20 · production rank #34 · 8-5

Florida State -1.1 mean gap · 11 seasons
#1#25#5020042005201020112012201320142015201620222023pollproduction

2011 · final poll rank #25 · production rank #11 · 9-4

Texas A&M -1.1 mean gap · 9 seasons
#1#25#50200420062010201220132018202020212025pollproduction

2021 · final poll rank #23 · production rank #7 · 8-4

Florida -1.2 mean gap · 12 seasons
#1#25#50200420052006200720082009201220152016201820192020pollproduction

2012 · final poll rank #4 · production rank #14 · 11-2

Texas -1.2 mean gap · 12 seasons
#1#25#50200420052006200720082009201820202022202320242025pollproduction

2007 · final poll rank #17 · production rank #8 · 10-3

Alabama -1.3 mean gap · 19 seasons
#1#25#502005200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025pollproduction

2010 · final poll rank #15 · production rank #1 · 10-3

Clemson -1.3 mean gap · 15 seasons
#1#25#50200520072011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222024pollproduction

2011 · final poll rank #14 · production rank #36 · 10-4

Georgia -2.8 mean gap · 17 seasons
#1#25#5020042005200720082011201220132014201720182019202020212022202320242025pollproduction

2013 · final poll rank #23 · production rank #8 · 8-5

Mississippi State -4.8 mean gap · 5 seasons
#1#25#5020102014201720182022pollproduction

2018 · final poll rank #18 · production rank #7 · 8-5

LSU -5.5 mean gap · 17 seasons
#1#25#5020042005200620072009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920222023pollproduction

2015 · final poll rank #22 · production rank #5 · 9-3

How to read this. Production rank = FBS-only power-model rank at that season’s final graded week. Gap = production rank minus final poll rank, so positive means the poll had them higher than the numbers did. A team needs 5+ seasons finishing ranked by this poll to appear at all — and the whole board is conditional on being ranked in the first place: a team the poll never ranked can’t be over-ranked by it.

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