Welcome back

Houston fans are all in. Ohio State fans are cautious.

Fan mood index · this week

Houston
Cooking
steady~ our read
106 posts→ 7d vol this week ✓ counted
r/CFB·this week

"Great. Another win against a team with a losing record."

4.5k✓ counted
Vegas win total
8.5 wins
Median O/U
8.5

3 books · O/U line ✓ counted

CFBD2026 offseason data

Strong by historical standards.

Close to the all-time high of 81.8. One of the better stretches on record.

Fan mood index76.0 / 100 ✓ counted
Now: 76.0Peak: 81.8
1 / 4
Ohio State
Watching
steady~ our read
1.6k posts→ 7d vol this week ✓ counted
r/CFB·this week

"So for those of you keeping track at home, Indiana's last four weeks have consisted of: * Beating Ohio State for the first time in 35 years. * Winning the co…"

7.3k✓ counted
Vegas win total
9.5 wins
Median O/U
9.5

3 books · O/U line ✓ counted

CFBD2026 offseason data

Near a historical low.

The current reading of 48.3 is one of the lowest recorded. Historical lows rarely last.

Fan mood index48.3 / 100 ✓ counted
Now: 48.3Peak: 89.6
1 / 4
7-week mood trajectory ✓ counted
What this gap means

Houston fans are cooking. Ohio State fans are watching. A 27.7-point gap — one of the wider splits in the FBS this week.

Fanbase momentum

Rising and falling — 7-week trend in fan confidence.

Players trending up

The CFB Index Score's biggest climbers this season.

From the 90-year archive

The Zeitgeist List · coaches · the talent factory
95
point
market-vs-fan
gap
The contrarian
Vegas has them at 10.5 wins (97th pct) — but fan confidence sits at just the 2nd percentile. The widest market-vs-fan gap in FBS right now.
The biggest thing today

Texas A&M has reached elite-tier consistency — a 26-10 record over three seasons raises the question of whether Mike Elko's second year can hold the program's top-12% power rating amid rising expectations.

Texas A&M — a 26-10 record over the last three regular seasons

728 counted
posts measured in the latest pulse
8.5 counted
win total — the line has moved

What's blowing up

the day's stories, sorted by why they matter

From the community

The posts r/cfb fans are upvoting most — last 6 months

Clemson

Indiana won the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff. This isn't new information, it's just Insane to Accept as Reality, even 6 m…

1,449 upvotes · r/cfb community
Oklahoma

Tomorrow may mark the nation's 250th year of existence, but today is a milestone of equal importance...

862 upvotes · r/cfb community
Penn State

Need a photo of the championship team with all the fired people greyed out like you see of the original Dexter cast who

713 upvotes · r/cfb community

Fanbase mood rankings →

236
of 20,757
player-seasons
Two-way elite · 2021-2025
236 player-seasons were elite at two different things
Jaishawn Barham — his label says he lives in the backfield. It never mentions that he covers, too. In 2025 he was elite at both.
he lives in the backfield
100
the part the label misses
100

The playoff forecast

16%
Ohio State
champion — our model

Ohio State leads our model — but the market isn't as sold yet

Preseason baseline · as of 2026-06-18 · static until kickoff

missed fieldfirst roundquarterfinalsemifinalfinalchampion
Ohio StateBig Tenmissed field: 19%first round: 9%quarterfinal: 27%semifinal: 18%final: 11%champion: 16%16%mkt 10+6 ⚠
GeorgiaSECmissed field: 32%first round: 11%quarterfinal: 24%semifinal: 15%final: 9%champion: 10%10%mkt 7
AlabamaSECmissed field: 34%first round: 11%quarterfinal: 24%semifinal: 14%final: 8%champion: 9%9%mkt 3+6 ⚠
Texas A&MSECmissed field: 35%first round: 11%quarterfinal: 23%semifinal: 14%final: 8%champion: 9%9%mkt 4+5 ⚠
OregonBig Tenmissed field: 43%first round: 11%quarterfinal: 20%semifinal: 12%final: 7%champion: 7%7%mkt 8
Notre DameFBS Independentsmissed field: 48%first round: 13%quarterfinal: 17%semifinal: 10%final: 6%champion: 6%6%mkt 9
Show all 12 teams+129 more
Texas TechBig 12missed field: 45%first round: 17%quarterfinal: 18%semifinal: 10%final: 5%champion: 6%6%mkt 3
TexasSECmissed field: 45%first round: 12%quarterfinal: 22%semifinal: 11%final: 5%champion: 5%5%mkt 9−4 ⚠
OklahomaSECmissed field: 53%first round: 12%quarterfinal: 17%semifinal: 9%final: 5%champion: 4%4%mkt 2
ClemsonACCmissed field: 63%first round: 12%quarterfinal: 12%semifinal: 6%final: 3%champion: 3%3%mkt 1
Penn StateBig Tenmissed field: 66%first round: 10%quarterfinal: 13%semifinal: 6%final: 3%champion: 3%3%mkt 1
USCBig Tenmissed field: 67%first round: 10%quarterfinal: 12%semifinal: 6%final: 3%champion: 2%2%mkt 2
Full bubble watch →
How we forecast

Our model ran 20,000 season simulations from team strength ratings and schedule difficulty to produce this preseason baseline (as of 2026-06-18). The percentage shown is our championship probability. It is a static snapshot — it sharpens once games are played.

The mkt figure is aggregated from major sportsbooks with the house margin removed — what bettors collectively believe. Large gaps are worth watching.

Bars desaturate early in the season and sharpen as games are played. Full methodology →

On the Clock

the countdown & the openers worth circling
Preseason AP Poll in 11 daysWeek 0 Kickoff in 16 daysWeek 1 Kickoff in 23 days
Ohio Dominican at Morehead State2026-08-27
Mercyhurst at Youngstown State2026-08-27
Maine at Towson2026-08-27
Stony Brook at Delaware State2026-08-27
Gardner-Webb at Austin Peay2026-08-27
Straight from the timelinefirst-party posts — tap to load the original