Washington State
No. 2 and No. 12Georgia at Ole Miss
Ole Miss’s playoff chance goes from 51% to 67% with a win, 38% with a loss.
▼38%
▲67%
Our ratings, playoff odds and what fans are saying, next to the polls.
Top-ranked matchup this week · Sat, Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET · NBC
No. 1 Miami at No. 4 Notre Dame
Miami 8-0 · Notre Dame 7-1
67%Our model gives Notre Dame a 67% chance to win (run Nov 5).Betting line: Notre Dame by 7
Miami’s playoff chance: 91% with a win, 83% with a loss
Notre Dame’s playoff chance: 77% with a win, 51% with a loss
Your team’s game can take this spot.
Games that matter this week
Our model’s playoff chances if each team wins or loses · run Nov 5 · week 10
No. 9 and No. 15Alabama at LSU
Alabama’s playoff chance goes from 64% to 79% with a win, 51% with a loss.
▼51%
▲79%
No. 8 and No. 16Kentucky at Tennessee
Kentucky’s playoff chance goes from 42% to 59% with a win, 34% with a loss.
▼34%
▲59%
No. 7 and No. 3BYU at Utah
Utah’s playoff chance goes from 48% to 57% with a win, 33% with a loss.
▼33%
▲57%
Out or in doubt this weekend
Leading players on the conference availability reports, as filed.
How we pick and order these
Each team’s leading players by this season’s stats: the top passer, the top two rushers, the top three receivers and the sack leader, plus our Heisman board. Teams in the AP Top 25, in this week’s Games that matter, or with a Heisman board player listed come first. Then a listed starting quarterback before a leading rusher or receiver, out and doubtful before questionable. Backup quarterbacks are left out, because the report does not say who starts. A player who is not here may still be on a report, and each game page has the whole report. The conferences give no reasons, so none are shown, and reports can change until kickoff.
Every game this weekend, by report
On the report No report filed yet This conference lists only flagged players, so no entry does not mean no report.
USC made the biggest jump in our playoff chances since Oct 30, to 34%
In-season forecast · our model, 20,000 simulated seasons, run Nov 5
Big for the playoff this week
Oregon at Ohio State
Playoff chance: 31% with a win, 8% with a loss
No. 11 Ohio StatePlayoff chance: 88% with a win, 68% with a loss
Bars run from a loss to a win, on a scale of 0 to 100%.
Next most at stake
- Texas at MissouriMissouri: 40% with a win, 18% with a loss
- Oklahoma at FloridaFlorida: 28% with a win, 11% with a loss
Who gets in
Share of our simulated seasons in which each team makes the field. Arrows: change in points since the Oct 30 run (5 or more).
Georgia89%up 8 points- Miami85%
- Ohio State80%
Texas80%up 5 points- Notre Dame68%
Alabama64%down 5 points
Ole Miss51%up 10 points
Utah48%up 12 points
LSU44%down 8 points
Texas Tech43%up 13 points
Indiana43%up 10 points- 11 places for these teams. The 12th is reserved for a team from the conferences outside the Power Four.
Kentucky42%down 8 points
USC34%up 16 points
UCLA33%down 9 points
Missouri27%up 7 points
USC rose the most since Oct 30, 18% to 34%. It won 30-18 against Ohio State.
Florida fell the most since Oct 30, 36% to 22%. It lost 27-8 to Georgia.
Who takes the reserved place: Boise State 53%, UTSA 16%, New Mexico 6%.
What coaches said
From articles published Nov 4 to Nov 5
Oregon at No. 11 Ohio State
Saturday · 3:30 PM ET
“Our status report will come out on Wednesday”
Dan Lanning, Oregon coachOregon running back Jordon Davison not expected to play against Ohio State
On3 · Nov 4“So, ultimately, that leads me to believe that we’re not where we need to be. So, we got an opportunity here against Oregon now to go turn that around.”
Ryan Day, Ohio State coachUpDAYtes: Ryan Day stresses need for improved play, coaching heading into Oregon gameThe Lantern · Nov 4“We play hard all the time, but we do execute all the time”
Jimmy Rogers, Iowa State coachSouth-searching Cyclones look for first road win
Iowa State Daily · Nov 5Saturday at Baylor · 12:00 PM ET
“That was embarrassing. Florida State’s better than that”
Dabo Swinney, Clemson coachTait Reynolds jokingly says Florida State used piped in crowd noise: 'There was nobody there'On3 · Nov 4Saturday at Syracuse · 12:00 PM ET
Georgia is our model’s favorite, with a 1-in-5 shot at the title
Our model, 20,000 simulated seasons, run Nov 5
1Georgia18.3%
Where Georgia’s simulated seasons end
11.3% missed the playoff8.3% lost first round28.4% lost quarterfinal21.0% lost semifinal12.7% lost final18.3% champion
The market prices the title at 16.6%, below our 18.3%.
Georgia’s team page2Ohio State14.1%
Where Ohio State’s simulated seasons end
19.7% missed the playoff10.3% lost first round25.6% lost quarterfinal18.9% lost semifinal11.4% lost final14.1% champion
The market prices the title at 6.6%, below our 14.1%.
Ohio State’s team page3Notre Dame13.7%
Where Notre Dame’s simulated seasons end
31.7% missed the playoff13.5% lost first round17.1% lost quarterfinal14.4% lost semifinal9.6% lost final13.7% champion
The market prices the title at 12.1%, below our 13.7%.
Notre Dame’s team page4Texas9.5%
Where Texas’s simulated seasons end
20.0% missed the playoff14.3% lost first round27.3% lost quarterfinal19.1% lost semifinal9.8% lost final9.5% champion
The market prices the title at 6.1%, below our 9.5%.
Texas’s team page5Miami8.3%
Where Miami’s simulated seasons end
14.9% missed the playoff22.8% lost first round28.0% lost quarterfinal17.1% lost semifinal8.9% lost final8.3% champion
The market prices the title at 9.1%, above our 8.3%.
Miami’s team page6Alabama7.3%
Where Alabama’s simulated seasons end
36.2% missed the playoff15.9% lost first round19.4% lost quarterfinal13.8% lost semifinal7.4% lost final7.3% champion
The market prices the title at 6.1%, below our 7.3%.
Alabama’s team pagePlays that swung the game
The biggest win-chance swing in each game played Oct 31 to Nov 4
Ball State at MassachusettsFinal: Massachusetts 31, Ball State 30Watson 13-yd TD run, Massachusetts goes ahead 31-30OvertimeMassachusetts win chance 29% → ▲100%A tight one: Massachusetts bottomed out at 26% and won.
Oklahoma State at Iowa StateFinal: Iowa State 51, Oklahoma State 49Konrardy 34-yd field goal, Iowa State goes ahead 51-49Q4, 0:00Iowa State win chance 30% → ▲100%A 10-point underdog, Iowa State won it.Big 12 Conference · 2026 · Week 9 · Game highlightsKansas State at ColoradoWilson 11-yd TD pass to Williams, Colorado goes ahead 27-24Overtime · Colorado 27, Kansas State 24Colorado win chance 43% → ▲100%▶Watch the play, Kansas State at Colorado, 2026 Week 9. Colorado win chance 43% to 100%Big 12 ConferenceESPN College Football · 2026 · Week 9 · Game highlightsSMU at SyracuseAngeli 2-yd TD pass to Meyers, Syracuse goes ahead 30-27Q4, 0:17 · Syracuse 30, SMU 27Syracuse win chance 38% → ▲94%▶Watch the play, SMU at Syracuse, 2026 Week 9. Syracuse win chance 38% to 94%ESPN College Football
Minnesota at IndianaFinal: Indiana 23, Minnesota 16Drzewiecki 60-yd field goal, Minnesota goes ahead 16-13Q4, 0:19 · Minnesota 16, Indiana 13Minnesota win chance 36% → ▲83%Up to 83% in the fourth quarter, then Minnesota lost it.
Texas State at Boise StateFinal: Boise State 46, Texas State 45Jackson 72-yd TD pass to Sample, Texas State goes ahead 45-40Q4, 3:46 · Texas State 45, Boise State 40Texas State win chance 23% → ▲64%Texas State led by 11, was as high as 91% in the fourth quarter, and still lost.
Buffalo at Miami (OH)Final: Buffalo 34, Miami (OH) 31McLaughlin 45-yd field goal no goodOvertimeBuffalo win chance 62% → ▲100%Buffalo came back from 15 down, at one point just a 1% chance in the fourth quarter.ESPN College Football · 2026 · Week 10 · Game highlightsOhio at AkronPoulos 60-yd TD pass to Dorwart, Ohio goes ahead 21-17Q4, 9:22 · Ohio 21, Akron 17Ohio win chance 39% → ▲76%▶Watch the play, Ohio at Akron, 2026 Week 10. Ohio win chance 39% to 76%ESPN College FootballWin chance as on each game page, set to the closing line. Official highlights play in the channel’s own player. Clips checked Nov 5.
Miami is No. 1 in the AP and fifth for us
Our top 10 against the AP and Coaches polls · our ratings updated Nov 5 · polls through week 10
| Our rank | Team | CFB Zeitgeist Score | AP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | 15.5 | 4up 1 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 15.1 | 11down 9 |
| 3 | Georgia | 13.9 | 2up 1 |
| 4 | Indiana | 13.8 | 6down 2 |
| 5 | Miami | 13.0 | 1 |
| 6 | Texas | 12.6 | 10up 1 |
| 7 | LSU | 12.5 | 15 |
| 8 | Alabama | 11.9 | 9up 1 |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 11.7 | 12 |
| 10 |  Northwestern | 11.3 | NR |
Ohio State is shaded: second for us and No. 11 in the AP, the widest gap in our top 10.
Darian Mensah is No. 1 on our Heisman board for the tenth straight week
Our model’s chances · week 10 board, updated Nov 5 · moves since the week 9 board
- 1
Miami · QB
Wwon 38-35 at North CarolinaOct 31 · 22 of 29, 274 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 4 rushes, 36 yds
18%to win63% to be a finalist - 2
Utah · QB
Wwon 49-25 at CincinnatiOct 31 · 22 of 29, 260 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 9 rushes, 45 yds
7%to win33% to be a finalistup from No. 4 on the week 9 board - 36%to win31% to be a finalistdown from No. 2 on the week 9 board
- 4
Georgia · QB
Wwon 27-8 vs FloridaOct 31 · 13 of 23, 101 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · 12 rushes, 45 yds
6%to win29% to be a finalistup from No. 5 on the week 9 board - 56%to win27% to be a finalistdown from No. 3 on the week 9 board
Last game lines are from the box score of each player’s most recent game.
The wire
Latest Nov 5 · roster moves, money and governance, coaching and staff moves
Today
Oregon player enters diversion programOregon · Roster movesSaturday at No. 11 Ohio State · 3:30 PM ET
UNC paid $800K for investigationNorth Carolina · Money and governance · 
The Daily Tar HeelSaturday at UConn · 12:00 PM ET
Seminole Boosters add three membersFlorida State · Money and governanceSaturday at Boston College · 12:00 PM ET
Deion Sanders resolves lawsuit over 'Prime' logosColorado · Money and governance · 
USA TodaySaturday at Arizona State · 7:30 PM ETOle Miss RB Kewan Lacy ruled outOle Miss · Roster moves · On3Saturday vs. No. 2 Georgia · 7:30 PM ETFlorida suspends DT for gameCollege football · Roster moves · 
Saturday Down South
Kaden Robnett out for seasonNew Mexico · Roster moves · Albuquerque JournalFriday at Nevada · 9:00 PM ETMalachi Toney out indefinitelyAlabama · Roster movesSaturday at No. 15 LSU · 3:30 PM ETShow more moves
Yesterday
Safety Lyrik Rawls out for seasonArizona State · Roster moves · 
The Arizona RepublicSaturday vs. Colorado · 7:30 PM ET
Comstock, Butler and Solomon to serve on Board of RegentsNebraska · Money and governance · 
Daily NebraskanFriday at Illinois · 8:00 PM ET
Illinois forward Jake Davis out indefinitely after shoulder surgeryIllinois · Roster movesFriday vs. Nebraska · 8:00 PM ETMakai Sat starts third straight gameIowa State · Roster movesSaturday at Baylor · 12:00 PM ET24-team CFP bracket seededKentucky · Money and governance · On3Saturday at No. 16 Tennessee · 6:15 PM ETCFP expands to 24 teamsNCAA · Money and governance · On3
Rice alumnus Adam Robinson dies in plane crashRice · Program news · 
The Rice ThresherSaturday at North Texas · 4:00 PM ETTuesday
Venables admits team embarrassingOklahoma · Program newsSaturday at No. 25 Florida · 7:45 PM ETMonday
WMU Board approves Asylum Lake transferWestern Michigan · Money and governance · 
Western Herald
Glenville playoff eligibility decision postponedOhio · Money and governance · WKYC
Rick Stockstill named FSU interim coachMiddle Tennessee · Coaches and staff · 
MTSU SidelinesSaturday vs. Western Kentucky · 3:30 PM ETStill going
Stories in the news on more than one day, newest Oct 30
BaylorBaylor fires Dave ArandaDave Aranda fired after loss
Whole sport · In the news Oct 25 to Oct 29 · It became the story of the week.
- UCLANico Iamaleava out for season
Whole sport · In the news Oct 12 to Oct 30 · It became the story of the week.
What fans are saying this week
Oct 26 to Nov 1, against the four weeks before
“yarders”
An Ohio State fan, in the game thread
Said across many fanbases
Minnesota 16 at Indiana 23 · Sat, Oct 31
“Back to back 60 yarders lol”
An Ohio State fan, in the game threadAlso said in this game: “bench Hoover”
Found by software from fan comments and whole game threads, and not checked by a person.