Memphis8-5AP #223Ryan Silverfield's third straight top-10 portal class arrives with just 2% QB production returning and zero continuity at quarterback — an extreme rebuild for a program that went 8-5 last year.
Memphis builds 10-win teams and watches them get raided — for the players, for the coach, for the conference invite that never comes — and the chip is that the city keeps producing winners the powers keep treating as a parts bin.
The fanbase watches every realignment shuffle leave Memphis on the outside while it out-wins programs that got the call — the sense that the city beats people who'll never have to share a conference w…
Approaching
24 days
until kickoff · at UNLV · Sun Aug 30 · 02:00 UTC
Memphis is the American Athletic program whose Mike Norvell era produced multiple top-25 finishes and whose 2024 11-2 ceiling under Ryan Silverfield kept the trajectory upward.
The team returns only 12% of its roster, with 51 transfers in and 47 out, and recruits ranked #72 nationally. The heavy reliance on new talent and the need to fill key positions like IOL and DL will shape the team's performance.
TOM the Tiger watches the corner.
the open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
Memphis has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-14% tier since 2024 raises questions about sustaining an 8-5 standard with #59 talent.
Ryan Silverfield enters his sixth season with an 8-5 record, but a coordinator change and uneasy fan sentiment signal unmet expectations for a program aiming to build on its recent upward trajectory.
Brendon Lewis (QB) headlines Memphis' top-2 portal class as Ryan Silverfield rebuilds 98% of a roster that reached an 11-2 ceiling last season.
Cortez Braham is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
Charles Huff took over as Memphis's head coach, replacing Ryan Silverfield.
Memphis: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Brady Kluse is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Frank Peasant sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
Ryan Silverfield's third straight top-10 portal class arrives with just 2% QB production returning and zero continuity at quarterback — an extreme rebuild for a program that went 8-5 last year.
DL Chris Stokes dismissed from team
Silverfield cuts Stokes loose after a handgun arrest on campus — roster already thin up front, and now the DL room takes a hit right before Jackson's commitment window closes.
American Conference announces revenue sharing
Revenue sharing hits the American and Memphis — sitting at #72 nationally in class rank with IOL depth still a real concern — now has a financial argument it couldn't make two years ago when portal recruiting was pure hustle over dollars.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
75th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Memphis · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Memphis has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 34% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 27%. It is a 25-11 record over the last three regular seasons. The data dipped but the coverage hasn't followed. Either the model is ahead of the room or the room is wishful.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Memphis: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 7 of 44 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
Board health this week (65 posts): 20% positive · 57% neutral · 23% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Opens Aug 30
vs UNLV · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
GA leads the 2026 class with 8 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
95 signees across 17 states, 2023-2026. GA leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
11 games with TV coverage: 1 national broadcast, 7 ESPN, 3 streaming
Kickoff windows: 3 noon, 3 afternoon, 5 primetime
The bounces have gone their way on their own fumbles: 67% recovered, vs. ~51% expected.
4 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves; 7 of 14 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Cashing in at a normal clip: 23% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~19% league-wide.
12 interceptions of 53 disrupted passes (41 deflected, 12 intercepted), 2025 only.
The flags have favored them: 84 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 72 committed, 49 yards to the good.
625 penalty yards committed vs. 674 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 2 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Memphis fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
I mean being in a P4 is always gonna give you a better shot than being in a G5 due to sheer amount of spots available for playoff inclusion alone much less the resource gap.
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readMemphis fans are split right down the middle, and they're backing it with about as much hard evidence as anyone.
✓ counted We read 65 posts from Memphis fans this week.
Fanbase divided: 46% believers, 54% skeptics
Fan opinions split nearly 50/50 right now · See all divided fanbases →
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Memphis · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.22 EPA/play | 2 | 13 | 253 / 368 | 68.8 | 2673 #55 FBS | 7.3 | 16 #63 FBS | 7 | 140.3 | 62.4 | 6.2 | 6.8 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage29.1% 74th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Plays like View Brendon Lewis's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.01 EPA/play | 3 | 2 | 19 / 32 | 59.4 | 223 | 7.0 | 1 | 1 | 122.0 | 29.2 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| +0.20 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 5 / 10 | 50 | 59 | 5.9 | 0 | 0 | 99.6 | 42.5 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.11 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 102 | 669 | 6.6 | 7 | 84 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 21.0 | 16.2 | 5.9% (20/337) | |
Yards by week → Speed Merchant· Boom-or-bustCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.7 90th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate6.9% 83th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.27 EPA/play | 13 | 10 | 99 | 563 | 5.7 | 7 | 90 | 17.5 | 14.1 | 20.8 | 13.5 | 11.3% (38/337) | |
Yards by week → Satellite Back· Boom-or-bustDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share24.4% 98th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate7.1% 85th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 54th percentile among FBS RBs to the 84th | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.31 EPA/play | 22 | 13 | 63 | 279 | 4.4 | 7 | 19 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 29.8 | 21.1 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.6 bottom 23th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate11.1% 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Frank Peasant's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.21 EPA/play | 21 | 4 | 22 | 64 | 2.9 | 3 | 9 | 10.9 | 1.3 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.75 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 63 | 889 #40 FBS | 14.1 | 8 #23 FBS | 73 | 13 | 15.5 | 25.8% (87/337) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume63 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)60.3 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.47 EPA/play | 9 | 13 | 38 | 623 | 16.4 | 2 | 57 | 4.5 | 5 | 13.6% (46/337) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception17.8 88th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate5.3% bottom 29th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 70th percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 0th | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.44 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 27 | 287 | 10.6 | 0 | 40 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 10.7% (36/337) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.8 bottom 25th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Marcello Bussey's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.77 EPA/play | 12 | 11 | 22 | 240 | 10.9 | 2 | 25 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 8.0% (27/337) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class View Brady Kluse's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.48 EPA/play | 15 | 10 | 18 | 174 | 9.7 | 1 | 37 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 5.9% (20/337) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.3 bottom 30th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate5.6% bottom 29th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Christian Ross's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.64 EPA/play | 87 | 7 | 12 | 101 | 8.4 | 0 | 15 | 4.3 | 3.3 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception6.4 bottom 9th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Bryce Anderson's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.37 EPA/play | — | 6 | 8 | 86 | 10.8 | 0 | 40 | 1.3 | 2.2 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.61 EPA/play | 32 | 9 | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 3 | 10 | 3.5 | 3 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception5.8 bottom 8th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate25.0% 98th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Matt Adcock's full player page | |||||||||||
| -0.07 EPA/play | 8 | 6 | 8 | 69 | 8.6 | 0 | 49 | 3.3 | 1.1 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 93 | 11 | 36 | 13 | 5.5 | 2 | 4 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.3% 52th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jalen Bell's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 9 | 12 | 31 | 17 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View William Whitlow Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 11 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0.5 | 4 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Pooda Walker's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · junior View Taylor Burton's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 98 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jayden Marable's full player page | |||||||
| 88 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 3 | 11 | 90 | 40 | 50 | 11 #74 FBS | 4.5 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume90 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 83rd percentile among FBS LBs, fell to 51st, now back up to 93rd | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 6 | 10 | 58 | 26 | 32 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 4 | 1 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.9% 94th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate11.2% 60th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Everett Roussaw Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 31 | 10 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 58th percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 0th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 23 | 8 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume23 bottom 16th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate15.2% 80th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Crews Law's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 48 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume15 bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden Flaker's full player page | |||||||||
| 33 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 24 | 12 | 78 | 4 | 2 | 6.5 | 1 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume78 96th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 0th percentile among FBS Ss to the 92nd | |||||||
| Rover | 5 | 12 | 71 | 9 #36 FBS | 1 | 7 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.7% 73th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Centerfielder to Rover, his CFB Index score moved from the 15th to 85th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Box Safety | 7 | 11 | 69 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume69 90th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Drue Watts's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 12 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Omarion Cooper's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 13 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate31.6% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jeremiah Jordan's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | 7 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · senior View Jaidyn Denis's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 21 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate13.3% 76th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Samson Israel's full player page | |||||||
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 25 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 44 | 12 | 14/19 | 73.7 | 46/46 | 88 | 55 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 30 | 13 | 46 | 1994 | 43.3 | 55 | 20 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.11 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 5 | 155 | 31 | 1 | 99 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.11 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 15 | 125 | 8.3 | 0 | 34 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+15 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #64 | #179 | -30.5 | Chattanooga | W 45–10 117 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #72 | #102 | -15.5 | @Georgia State | W 38–16 128 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #71 | #74 | -4.5 | @Troy | W 28–7 127 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #56 | #58 | +7 | Arkansas | W 32–31 137 | 4-0 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #53 | #136 | -13.5 | @Florida Atlantic | W 55–26 145 | 5-0 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 5 | #51 | #124 | -21.5 | Tulsa | W 45–7 136 | 6-0 | 2-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #45 | #161 | -23.5 | @UAB | L 24–31 128 | 6-1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #54 | #14 | +3.5 | South FloridaTop 25 win | W 34–31 161 | 7-1 | 3-1 |
| 10 | Oct 31 | #47 | #122 | -14 | @Rice | W 38–14 119 | 8-1 | 4-1 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #42 | #67 | -3 | Tulane | L 32–38 125 | 8-2 | 4-2 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #46 | #41 | +2.5 | @East Carolina | L 27–31 149 | 8-3 | 4-3 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | #54 | #57 | -4 | Navy | L 17–28 134 | 8-4 | 4-4 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 16 | Dec 19 | #58 | #44 | +3.5 | NC State (N) | L 7–31 | 8-5 | 4-4 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19 | NC State | L 7–31 | — | — | — | -0.114 | 36.5% | 112.4% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 28 | Navy | L 17–28 | 288 | 0 | 24:31 | +0.054 | 31.8% | 118.2% | |
| Nov 15 | @East Carolina | L 27–31 | 457 | 1 | 35:33 | +0.208 | 38.8% | 125.9% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | Tulane | L 32–38 | 435 | 1 | 34:28 | +0.351 | 47.2% | 140.6% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 31 | @Rice | W 38–14 | 355 | 0 | 27:38 | +0.448 | 47.5% | 168.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 25 | South Florida | W 34–31 | 450 | 0 | 33:52 | +0.230 | 45.7% | 129.5% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | @UAB | L 24–31 | 362 | 1 | 24:55 | +0.196 | 49.2% | 118.3% | One-score loss |
| Oct 5 | Tulsa | W 45–7 | 457 | 2 | 39:11 | +0.267 | 51.9% | 107.3% | Blowout win |
| Sep 27 | @Florida Atlantic | W 55–26 | 487 | 1 | 31:12 | +0.412 | 47.7% | 155.3% | Blowout win |
| Sep 20 | Arkansas | W 32–31 | 493 | 2 | 32:05 | +0.308 | 43.1% | 149.7% | One-score win |
| Sep 13 | @Troy | W 28–7 | 430 | 1 | 36:55 | +0.166 | 45.1% | 119.0% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 6 | @Georgia State | W 38–16 | 401 | 0 | 29:53 | +0.301 | 46.0% | 139.8% | |
| Aug 30 | Chattanooga | W 45–10 | 432 | 1 | 28:26 | +0.441 | 56.7% | 122.0% | Best success rate |
| Season average (13 games) | 421 | 0.8 | +0.251 | 45.2% | 131.3% | ||||
Memphis fields an elite offense behind a leaky defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
80th percentile quality, 24th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 84th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 85th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
75th percentile success on standard downs, 68th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 90th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 64th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.25; 77th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.06. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.44 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Memphis reads strongest in rushing epa (top 4%) and epa / play (top 16%); the crux lives in passing epa allowed, where Memphis sits at the 7th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Memphis
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Memphis · 2018-present
83% home win rate vs 52% on the road. margin runs +10.8 better at home. Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium seats 58,325, averaging 47% full (27,275 attendance, 25 games reported).
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Cortez Braham (WR) and Christian Ross (TE) split the targets (82/101 vs 19/101) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 14 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Memphis’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.8% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 115-play sample) — mid-pack, 43 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
69°F average kickoff temp; 8% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 80 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Memphis's 2014–2025 record is 106-48. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1921 · 83 seasons · .482 win rate
Memphis beat Arkansas 32-31 in 2025. Arkansas hired the Memphis head coach away the next week. It is the cleanest summary of what it means to build a program in this city — you win, and the bigger programs treat your staff as a parts bin.
The 2019 Memphis team went 12-2, won the AAC championship, and played in the Cotton Bowl. Mike Norvell built that team, then left for Florida State. Ryan Silverfield stepped up, went 50-25 over six years with back-to-back 10-win seasons in 2023 and 2024, then beat Arkansas and left for Arkansas. The pattern is the Memphis story: a city that generates football success and watches the architects get harvested by programs with more money and a bigger brand. The fanbase has built a chip around it that is now structural — not anger, exactly, but a specific, calibrated awareness that the city has to produce better than the invitation it gets.
Silverfield's exit stung because it came with a tailored kicker: the school that hired him was the school he'd just beaten. Memphis finished 8-5 without him, losing the Gasparilla Bowl 31-7 to NC State under interim coach Reggie Howard. The program turned to Charles Huff — who had just completed a one-year turnaround at Southern Miss — to keep what the Silverfield era built from evaporating. Huff arrives with portal-era credibility and the task of convincing a fanbase that has done this before that the machine, not the man, is why Memphis wins.
The 2026 season asks the question the program always eventually faces: is Memphis a sustained-success engine or a product of a specific staff's work? The fanbase's answer is the machine. The evidence for that argument is the back-to-back 10-win seasons, the AAC infrastructure, and a DeAngelo Williams-to-Norvell-to-Silverfield lineage that outlasted every departure. The evidence against it is that the program is now on its third coach in six years and has never forced the conference door the city's results deserve.
Up-tempo, points-focused offense fused to a city identity borrowed from the Grit-and-Grind NBA teams that made Memphis a sports town. Memphis scores, distributes the ball quickly, and plays with a pace that stresses opposing defenses before halftime. Huff's approach at Southern Miss suggests he'll maintain the offensive philosophy while emphasizing defensive physicality. The portal strategy has consistently prioritized proven AAC contributors over developmental projects.
Memphis 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.01 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 4.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 8-5 · AP #22
Memphis: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
American Athletic Standing · 2025
Memphis sits 6th of 14 in the American Athletic at 4-4. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | 8-1 |
| 2 | Tulane | 8-1 |
| 3 | North Texas | 7-2 |
| 4 | East Carolina | 6-2 |
| 5 | South Florida | 6-2 |
| 6 | Memphis | 4-4 |
| 7 | UTSA | 4-4 |
| 8 | Army | 4-5 |
| 9 | Florida Atlantic | 3-5 |
| 10 | Temple | 3-5 |
| 11 | Rice | 2-6 |
| 12 | UAB | 2-6 |
| 13 | Tulsa | 1-7 |
| 14 | Charlotte | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Memphis
Charles Huff took over from Ryan Silverfield for the 2026 season.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2010s
Memphis 'Grit and Grind' — borrowed from the city's Grizzlies basketball culture — became the football program's identity descriptor through the 2010s. The defensive mentality + blue-collar city image + Beale Street cultural anchor make Memphis CFB feel different from its AAC peers.
since 2016
Mike Norvell's tenure (2016-2019) produced four straight bowl appearances (all losses), the real 2019 AAC championship (beat Cincinnati 29-24), the Cotton Bowl appearance (lost to Penn State), and multiple top-25 finishes. Norvell's 2019 departure to Florida State left Memphis with a structural ceiling Ryan Silverfield has continued to defend.
since 2010s
Beale Street — the historic blues-music corridor in downtown Memphis — becomes the postgame celebration site after Tigers wins. The fan culture that connects football wins to the city's cultural identity is unique among AAC programs.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
A 12-2 season, the conference title, and a Cotton Bowl berth — the program's modern high point
2025
Memphis beats Arkansas 32-31, and Arkansas responds by hiring Silverfield away
Wound
Moment of the Year · Memphis · 2025
Week 16 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — loss 31-7 (away). Last 5 postseason: 4-1.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–20264 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Kevin Decker / co-David Weeks — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Hired for 2026: Lance Guidry — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Memphis · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Memphis · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Memphis
Season Standing · 2025 · 8-5 · AP #22
Coaching Era · Memphis
Moment of the Year · Memphis · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline