Memphis routs Charlotte 59-8
Memphis routed Charlotte 59-8. Share this game
We had Memphis favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Memphis a 77% chance, and the closing betting line (Memphis was a 18.5-point favorite) put it at 93%.
Charlotte · Q3 14:49
Memphis 59-8 CharlotteMemphis wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Charlotte 8-59 MemphisCharlotte lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The play that swung it
- 1Q1 10:25Stokes 93-yd TD pass to Hayes, Memphis goes ahead 7-0Memphis 84% → 94% (+10)
The play that swung it
- 1Q1 10:25Stokes 93-yd TD pass to Hayes, Memphis goes ahead 7-0Charlotte 16% → 6% (−10)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Memphis -18.5), at 86% for Memphis (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Memphis scored on 9 of its 13 drives; Charlotte on 1 of its 11.
Memphis’s drives are teal, Charlotte’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Memphis’s chance to win the conference rose from 14% to 16%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Memphis 59, Charlotte 8
Memphis covered −18.5 by 32.5. The total, 67, went over 52.5.
| Team totals | Memphis | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 674 | 209 |
| Passing | 25 of 31, 386 yds | 7 of 16, 77 yds |
| Rushing | 58 for 288 yds | 24 for 132 yds |
| First downs | 36 | 8 |
| Third down | 10 of 16 | 1 of 10 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 4 |
| Penalties | 5 for 40 yds | 5 for 43 yds |
| Time of possession | 40:25 | 19:35 |
Memphis leaders
- Passing Marcus Stokes 20 of 25, 318 yds, 5 TD
- Rushing Jaylin Carter 15 for 76 yds; Marcus Stokes 9 for 61 yds
- Receiving Jermane Hayes 6 for 123 yds, 1 TD; Hunter Tipton 3 for 60 yds, 2 TD
Charlotte leaders
- Passing Cole Gonzales 6 of 14, 73 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Henry Rutledge 6 for 111 yds, 1 TD; Khamani Alexander 6 for 25 yds
- Receiving Derrick Eley 1 for 36 yds; Khamani Alexander 3 for 23 yds
Rain for part of the game
73° at kickoff · 0.3 in of rain by radar over the stadium; the airport 5.6 miles away recorded no rain
The usual here around this date is 68°, with about 7 in 10 games between 60° and 78°.
October game-day temperatures at Jerry Richardson Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Concord airport, 5.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Memphis · 3-1
Rated 100th in our preseason ratings, 96th now.
3-1 in its last 4, including a 6-point win over UNLV as a 4.5-point underdog.
Last 4 games
Charlotte · 0-4
Rated 166th in our preseason ratings, 168th now.
4 straight losses.
L 41-43 vs The Citadel #210 of 668
lost by 2 as a 20.5-point favorite
Week by week
Charlotte
- Wk 1Lvs The Citadel41-43
- Wk 2Lat Ole Miss9-41
- Wk 3Lat App State21-26
- Wk 4Lvs Louisiana7-34
Memphis
- Wk 1Wat UNLV27-21
- Wk 1Wvs Arkansas State42-24
- Wk 2Lat Boise State20-38
- Wk 3Wvs UT Martin45-21
Power rating by week
Memphis is rated 5.4 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Memphis’s passing EPA against Charlotte, 79 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Memphis’s passing EPA against Charlotte’s defense
Memphis offense, 90th percentile · Charlotte defense, 11th
Memphis’s success rate against Charlotte’s defense
Memphis offense, 79th percentile · Charlotte defense, 3rd
Memphis’s explosive plays against Charlotte’s defense
Memphis offense, 82nd percentile · Charlotte defense, 37th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Memphis leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2023 · Memphis has won the last 2
- 2024Memphis 33-28
- 2023Memphis 44-38
Each line is Charlotte’s chance to win through that meeting. Charlotte is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Memphis fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (88th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 23%
- Line · 7%
- Charlotte fans · 4th
- Memphis fans · 88th
Memphis favored by 18.5 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
Memphis by 18.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Charlotte.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: +21.5 → +18.5 · Total: 54.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 78° at kickoff.
Memphis at Charlotte · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte
- 78°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 90weather score, Comfortable
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 9 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Jerry Richardson Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm or 8 pm kickoff would have scored 98, against 90 at 11 am.
- 11 am: 90, Comfortable (this game)
- noon: 88, Mixed
- 12:45 pm: 87, Mixed
- 2 pm: 88, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 97, Comfortable
- 4:15 pm: 97, Comfortable
- 6 pm: 97, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 98, Comfortable
- 8 pm: 98, Comfortable
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Charlotte has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.9 points (±4.0), home against road — 6th percentile of FBS.
36% at home, 24% on the road against FBS opponents (14-25 home, 12-37 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -8.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — outside the ±6.1 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 521 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.