UT Martin · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · UT Martin · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · UT Martin2021 FCS playoff appearance
UT Martin makes the FCS playoffs, proving the Skyhawks can compete on the national stage
UT Martin6-6Hope-Doping·Offseason
UT Martin is the West Tennessee Skyhawk program, a consistent OVC champion that owns five titles in the past two decades and a playoff regular under coach Jason Simpson.
Standard GapFive OVC championships and multiple FCS playoff appearances vs the chall…
UT Martin has won five OVC titles (2006, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024) and made FCS playoffs twice (2021, 2024) under coach Jason Simpson in his two decades at the helm. The wound is the…
low signal
Approaching
21 days
until kickoff · vs Central Arkansas · Thu Aug 27 · 23:30 UTC
The experience
UT Martin is the West Tennessee Skyhawk program, a consistent OVC champion that owns five titles in the past two decades and a playoff regular under coach Jason Simpson.
Skyhawks country waits.
UT Martin · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 4-8
Base 6-6
Ceiling 9-3
floor4-8Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base6-6Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling9-3Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Warming
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Aug 27
vs Central Arkansas · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on UT Martin
—
Skyhawks country waits.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Skyhawks."
— UT Martin fanbase · recurring line
3 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · UT Martin · medium confidence
Stable (48)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 6-6 (50% win rate)58
Volume — 2 effective signal-N38
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#115 / 138 · 17th pct20.7
Pts allowed/game#54 / 138 · 62nd pct23.9
All 24 stats
Other
H1 epa per play#141 / 162 · 14th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct0.00.0
H1 epa per play opponent#156 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct0.40.0/gm
First down pass rate#173 / 215 · 20th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#8 / 11 · 36th pct0.30.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team60.5/gm#143 / 167 · 15th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct
Opp131.1/gm#23 / 166 · 87th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct
Red zone score %
Team83.3%83.3%#54 / 167 · 68th pct#29 / 70 · 60th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct
Opp92.3%92.3%#152 / 166 · 9th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct
Points / drive
Team0.90.1/gm#142 / 167 · 16th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct
Opp30.2/gm#144 / 166 · 14th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Yards / drive
Team28.22.3/gm#152 / 167 · 10th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct
Opp39.93.3/gm#63 / 166 · 63rd pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.10.5/gm#134 / 167 · 20th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct
Opp5.80.5/gm#5 / 166 · 98th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team19.4%19.4%#138 / 167 · 18th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct
Opp13.5%13.5%#85 / 166 · 49th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#28 / 145 · 81st pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct+6.1%+6.1%
Standard-downs success
Team37.5%37.5%#150 / 154 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp45.3%45.3%#42 / 172 · 76th pct#24 / 70 · 67th pct
Passing-downs success
Team29.5%29.5%#88 / 153 · 43rd pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct
Opp41.1%41.1%#146 / 149 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.52.5#134 / 143 · 7th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct
Opp2.62.6#23 / 155 · 86th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct
Stuff rate
Team18.6%18.6%#73 / 143 · 50th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct
Opp23.9%23.9%#12 / 155 · 93rd pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
UT Martin · 2025 schedule & results6-6Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 40% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #113 | #78 | — | @Oklahoma State | L 7–27 72 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #111 | #160 | +7.5 | @UTEP | L 17–42 54 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #131 | #207 | +3 | Southern Illinois | L 10–37 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #159 | #126 | +14.5 | @Missouri State | L 10–42 58 | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #190 | #216 | +3 | Southeast Missouri State | W 34–10 | 1-4 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #181 | #207 | -1.5 | @Lindenwood | L 14–30 | 1-5 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #207 | #247 | -14.5 | Western Illinois | W 32–31 | 2-5 | 2-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #224 | #158 | +8 | @Gardner-Webb | W 37–7 | 3-5 | 3-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #184 | #224 | -4.5 | @Eastern Illinois | W 27–20 | 4-5 | 4-1 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #177 | #243 | -14.5 | Tennessee State | W 26–7 | 5-5 | 5-1 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #168 | #208 | -10 | Charleston Southern | W 17–14 | 6-5 | 6-1 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #176 | #98 | +17.5 | @Tennessee Tech | L 17–20 | 6-6 | 6-1 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Tennessee Tech | L 17–20 | — | — | — | +0.043 | 37.7% | 127.8% | One-score loss |
| Nov 15 | Charleston Southern | W 17–14 | — | — | — | +0.175 | 43.1% | 115.7% | One-score win |
| Nov 8 | Tennessee State | W 26–7 | — | — | — | +0.080 | 38.6% | 122.3% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 1 | @Eastern Illinois | W 27–20 | — | — | — | +0.112 | 53.8% | 72.4% | Best success rate |
| Oct 18 | @Gardner-Webb | W 37–7 | — | — | — | +0.314 | 42.9% | 141.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 11 | Western Illinois | W 32–31 | — | — | — | +0.291 | 50.7% | 112.1% | One-score win |
| Oct 4 | @Lindenwood | L 14–30 | — | — | — | +0.083 | 48.4% | 84.8% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 27 | Southeast Missouri State | W 34–10 | — | — | — | +0.292 | 44.1% | 133.0% | |
| Sep 20 | @Missouri State | L 10–42 | — | — | — | +0.140 | 35.2% | 108.1% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 13 | Southern Illinois | L 10–37 | — | — | — | +0.002 | 35.0% | 109.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 7 | @UTEP | L 17–42 | — | — | — | +0.059 | 37.3% | 134.7% | |
| Aug 28 | @Oklahoma State | L 7–27 | — | — | — | +0.045 | 33.9% | 120.3% | |
| Season average (12 games) | — | — | +0.136 | 41.7% | 115.2% | ||||
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does UT Martin hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
2nd percentile success on standard downs, 41st on passing downs — a 39-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Schedule mirage
How much of UT Martin's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.14; 52nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 8: 0.15 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · UT Martin · 2018-present
Elite
80% home win rate vs 41% on the road. margin runs +15.9 better at home. Graham Stadium seats 7,500, averaging 58% full (4,331 attendance, 11 games reported).
Home29-7Away20-28
Venue texture
73°F average kickoff temp; 8% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 26 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · UT Martin
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
129-119
since 1967 · 28 seasons · .520 win rate
HOME
76-31
AWAY
47-80
NEUTRAL
6-8
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Big South-OVC Standing · 2025
1st in the Big South-OVC
UT Martin sits at the top of the Big South-OVC at 6-1. Everyone else is chasing.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UT Martin | 6-1 |
| 2 | Gardner-Webb | 5-2 |
| 3 | Lindenwood | 5-2 |
| 4 | Charleston Southern | 4-3 |
| 5 | Southeast Missouri State | 3-4 |
| 6 | Western Illinois | 3-4 |
| 7 | Eastern Illinois | 2-5 |
| 8 | Tennessee State | 0-7 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2022-2023 back-to-back OVC titles
The Skyhawks win back-to-back conference championships, the peak of the Simpson era
2024 FCS playoff appearance
UT Martin returns to the FCS playoffs, sustaining the pattern of postseason success
Moment of the Year · UT Martin · 2025
Moment of the Year · UT Martin · 2025Won 34-10 vs Southeast Missouri State
Week 5 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
FCS → NFL Pipeline
2023–2023
FCS → NFL PipelineDeveloping
1 picks last 5 cycles. The pipeline is real but still building volume.
1
picks · last 5 yrs
#228
Colton Dowell
Wide Receiver · 2023 · Tennessee
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