Central Arkansas · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Central Arkansas · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Central ArkansasThe 2017 Southland Championship
Central Arkansas goes 10–2 (9–0 Southland), wins conference title, loses to New Hampshire in FCS Playoff Second Round
Central Arkansas3-9Hope-Doping·Offseason
Central Arkansas is the Arkansas program that won a conference title in 2017 and has spent eight seasons losing its way.
Title DroughtSince 2017 · 8 yrs
The chip is one moment wide and eight years deep: Central Arkansas won a conference title in 2017 and made the Playoff, but has never been back. The Bears know they belong at that level because they'v…
offseason · quiet
Approaching
21 days
until kickoff · at UT Martin · Thu Aug 27 · 23:30 UTC
The experience
Central Arkansas is the Arkansas program that won a conference title in 2017 and has spent eight seasons losing its way.
The Bears are in the woods.
Central Arkansas · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 1-11
Base 3-9
Ceiling 6-6
floor1-11Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base3-9Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling6-6Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Hibernating
Zero of five. Reset territory.
Streak L5Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 2-8
The forecast
Opens Aug 27
vs UT Martin · away
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Central Arkansas
—
The Bears are in the woods.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Central Arkansas"
— Central Arkansas fanbase · recurring line
3 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Central Arkansas · medium confidence
Stable (42)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 3-9 (25% win rate)44
Volume — 3 effective signal-N40
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Central Arkansas · 2025 schedule & results3-9Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 51% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #143 | #28 | +39.5 | @Missouri | L 6–61 131 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #118 | #181 | -27 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | W 41–17 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #147 | #102 | +13 | Tarleton State | L 10–56 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #169 | #168 | +15.5 | @Sacramento State | L 16–45 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #195 | #156 | +6.5 | @Lamar | L 32–35 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #192 | #218 | — | Utah Tech | W 23–17 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #195 | #221 | -4 | @North Alabama | W 49–21 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #157 | #182 | +5.5 | @West Georgia | L 17–18 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #164 | #204 | -6.5 | Eastern Kentucky | L 13–34 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #197 | #127 | +13.5 | @Austin Peay | L 38–41 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| 12 | Nov 16 | #192 | #132 | +12.5 | @Southern Utah | L 21–28 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #190 | #111 | +9.5 | Abilene Christian | L 28–49 | 3-9 | 1-5 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | Abilene Christian | L 28–49 | — | — | — | +0.143 | 38.3% | 173.3% | Most explosive |
| Nov 16 | @Southern Utah | L 21–28 | — | — | — | +0.118 | 41.3% | 130.4% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | @Austin Peay | L 38–41 | — | — | — | +0.136 | 49.2% | 82.3% | One-score loss |
| Nov 1 | Eastern Kentucky | L 13–34 | — | — | — | +0.009 | 42.1% | 87.6% | |
| Oct 25 | @West Georgia | L 17–18 | — | — | — | +0.105 | 52.1% | 85.6% | One-score loss |
| Oct 11 | @North Alabama | W 49–21 | — | — | — | +0.341 | 43.9% | 151.4% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 4 | Utah Tech | W 23–17 | — | — | — | +0.032 | 43.1% | 104.3% | One-score win |
| Sep 27 | @Lamar | L 32–35 | — | — | — | +0.183 | 49.4% | 109.0% | One-score loss |
| Sep 21 | @Sacramento State | L 16–45 | — | — | — | +0.064 | 45.6% | 95.4% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 13 | Tarleton State | L 10–56 | — | — | — | -0.094 | 36.1% | 129.0% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 6 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | W 41–17 | — | — | — | +0.288 | 61.4% | 101.0% | Best success rate |
| Aug 28 | @Missouri | L 6–61 | 227 | 2 | 29:51 | -0.154 | 39.3% | 89.5% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (12 games) | 227 | 2.0 | +0.098 | 45.1% | 111.6% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Central Arkansas's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.10; 48th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 1: -0.15 raw vs. -0.01 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Central Arkansas · 2018-present
Strong
62% home win rate vs 40% on the road. margin runs +9.0 better at home. Estes Stadium seats 10,000, averaging 67% full (6,670 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home25-15Away20-29
Venue texture
72°F average kickoff temp; 7% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 29 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Central Arkansas
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
133-93
since 1923 · 24 seasons · .588 win rate
HOME
74-28
AWAY
54-61
NEUTRAL
5-4
1920s
1930s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
UAC Standing · 2025
6th in the UAC
Central Arkansas sits 6th of 8 in the UAC at 1-5. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abilene Christian | 6-0 |
| 2 | Tarleton State | 5-1 |
| 3 | Austin Peay | 3-3 |
| 4 | West Georgia | 3-3 |
| 5 | Eastern Kentucky | 2-4 |
| 6 | Central Arkansas | 1-5 |
| 7 | North Alabama | 1-5 |
| 8 | West Florida | 0-0 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
The 2025 3–9 Collapse
Bears go 3–9 (2–6 UAC) — the deepest losing season since moving to UAC
Wound
Moment of the Year · Central Arkansas · 2025
Moment of the Year · Central Arkansas · 2025Won 41-17 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Week 2 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
FCS → NFL Pipeline
2025–2025
FCS → NFL PipelineDeveloping
1 picks last 5 cycles. The pipeline is real but still building volume.
1
picks · last 5 yrs
#121
David Walker
Defensive Edge · 2025 · Tampa Bay
#198 all-time in draft picksthe talent factory →
r/cfb moments
521
[Postgame Thread] UAB Defeats Central Arkansas 45-35
183
[Game Thread] Central Arkansas @ UAB (8:00PM ET)
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
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