SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE · 2025 SEASON BASELINE · 2026 OUTLOOK
UT Rio Grande Valley
Rank #93
Team Mood Card — Offseason Mode
UT Rio Grande Valley fan conversation is quiet right now.
The Mood Card lights up during the season, when live fan, national, and rival chatter clears the publish gate. In the offseason we hold the frame open rather than print fake precision. Live signal returns once weekly conversation volume rebuilds.
Cohort Signal
Not enough fan conversation has cleared this week's publish threshold yet (we wait for ≥30 weighted posts before showing a number). How we set the bar ›
Fanbase Archetype
How this fanbase sorts in the Fan Intelligence taxonomy (N° 04 on the Hub).
Fanbase Archetype
The Quiet Professional
Primary: 72% confidence
Fanbases with no delusions. They know exactly who their team is: good enough to win 8-10 games, not good enough to win it all. They are at peace with this.
SIGNATURE PHRASE
“We know what we are”
MODIFIERS
· Entrenched
5-Season Migration
Performance Narrative
Season Rating Journey
One line tells the story. Hover or tap any marker to see the exact game and how many power points it moved the rating. Larger markers mean bigger swings.
Rating rose
Rating fell
Little movement
Ring shows opponent level
Result
--
Power Swing
--
Rating Path
--
Week 3 · vs Langston University
Week 2 · @ Prairie View A&M
Week 9 · vs Incarnate Word
Betting Lens
Market context is a second read on the season: how often this team rewarded believers, disappointed them, or played into totals differently than expected.
Week 9 vs Incarnate Word
Cover by +32.50 against a closing line of +4.5.
Week 10 vs Stephen F. Austin
No cover by -14.00. These are the losses bettors remember.
Week 9 vs Incarnate Word
Over versus 54.5 by +29.50 points.
Efficiency Dashboard
Opponent-adjusted efficiency cards organized as a premium team dashboard.
Offense
86th pct
Defense
68th pct
Adjusted values: +0.07 offense, +0.11 defense
Sample: 11 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
67th pct
Defense
66th pct
Adjusted values: -0.02 offense, -0.09 defense
Sample: 11 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
63rd pct
Defense
55th pct
Adjusted values: +0.33 offense, -0.30 defense
Sample: 11 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
81st pct
Defense
70th pct
Adjusted values: +0.10 offense, -0.03 defense
Sample: 11 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Why The Model Has Them Here
A team page should explain the ranking, not just print it.
Power +12.5
Currently +12.5 versus the all-level average team on a neutral field. Offensive Efficiency currently grades around the 86th percentile.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
Resume 88
Body of work: best signal beat Prairie View A&M 27-21. Closest call lost to Stephen F. Austin 17-41. 88th percentile season.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
3-1 over the last 4 (L10 W11 W12 W13)
Last four games: 3-1 over the last 4 (L10 W11 W12 W13). Resume is 2 points ahead of power through the most recent season — results are outpacing the underlying strength rating.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
2025 Season
Biggest slice of the season so far: Regular Season at 9-3. Even if a bowl or playoff game lands in early 2026, it still belongs to this season page.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
Placement Context
This is where the team sits inside the all-level board, its own subdivision, and its own conference ecosystem.
Overall Board#93
Inside FCS#15 of 129
Inside Southland#2 of 10
Power+12.5pts vs avg NCAA team
Resume8888th percentile season
Cross-Level NeighborCalifornia
Use these shortcuts to jump from this team to the neighbors that best explain its place on the board, including the closest cross-level comparison.
Closest Neighbors
The quickest way to explain a ranking is often to show the teams immediately around it.
Overall Ahead
Power +0.1 | Resume +3
#92 South Carolina State
FCS | MEAC
Overall Behind
Power -0.0 | Resume -8
#94 California
FBS | ACC
FCS Ahead
Power +0.1 | Resume +3
#92 South Carolina State
FCS | MEAC
Southland Ahead
Power +1.9 | Resume +4
#60 Stephen F. Austin
FCS | Southland
Cross-Level Neighbor
Power -0.0 | Resume -8
#94 California
FBS | ACC
Historical Snapshot
Fans should be able to see the short version immediately: how big the loaded sample is, what this program's standard looks like, and where the current season sits inside that arc.
The number of fully modeled seasons currently attached to this program.
A recent multi-year closing-power average. This is the kind of anchor that should matter in preseason priors.
How the current season's closing power stacks up against the program's recent standard.
How far the current season finished below the strongest loaded team in program history.
The strongest closing power this program has posted in the loaded archive.
No earlier loaded season beat the current closing power.
No earlier loaded season beat the current resume.
The highest loaded all-level board finish currently attached to this program.
The strongest body-of-work season currently attached to this program in the loaded archive.
Where the current season sits inside this program's loaded history on the two main scales.
A cleaner fan-facing answer to the question: is this near the top of the program's arc or just another solid year?
The cleanest results season in the loaded archive, regardless of whether it was also the strongest by power.
Program Arc
Bars track win rate. The line tracks end-of-season power, so users can see whether the program is actually getting stronger or just stacking wins.
Bars: win rate
Line: public power vs average team
Season Phase Split
How this season breaks apart inside the same year-defined competitive cycle.
Regular Season 9-3 in 12 games
| Phase | Record | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 9-3 | 12 |
Loaded History Signals
This is the fastest way to explain what the last few seasons say about the program, and why prior success should matter in the next preseason cycle.
2025 Season
Ended at power +0.7, record 9-3, and final loaded-board rank #93.
2025 Season
Resume 72 / 100 with 9 wins and a 75% win rate.
9-3
The cleanest loaded season by results came in 2025, with a margin of +249.
2025 Season
9-3 with power +0.7 and margin +249.
Impact Cards
A card-based alternate view of the same rating swings for fans who want the season game by game.
Week 13
Regular Season
vs East Texas A&M
Result
Win
Pregame
-0.23
Power
+0.64
Resume
+0.10
Postgame
0.41
Week 12
Regular Season
@ McNeese
Result
Win
Pregame
-1.22
Power
+0.99
Resume
+0.13
Postgame
-0.23
Week 11
Regular Season
vs Nicholls
Result
Win
Pregame
-1.49
Power
+0.27
Resume
+0.09
Postgame
-1.22
Week 10
Regular Season
@ Stephen F. Austin
Result
Loss
Pregame
-0.46
Power
-1.04
Resume
-0.27
Postgame
-1.49
Week 9
Regular Season
vs Incarnate Word
Result
Win
Pregame
-1.80
Power
+1.35
Resume
+0.17
Postgame
-0.46
Week 8
Regular Season
@ Lamar
Result
Loss
Pregame
-2.00
Power
+0.20
Resume
-0.34
Postgame
-1.80
Week 6
Regular Season
vs Houston Christian
Result
Win
Pregame
-3.42
Power
+1.21
Resume
+0.26
Postgame
-2.21
Week 5
Regular Season
@ SE Louisiana
Result
Loss
Pregame
-3.23
Power
-0.19
Resume
-1.29
Postgame
-3.42
Week 4
Regular Season
vs Texas Wesleyan
Result
Win
Pregame
--
Power
--
Resume
--
Postgame
--
Week 3
Regular Season
vs Langston University
Result
Win
Pregame
-8.04
Power
+2.98
Resume
+0.25
Postgame
-5.06
Week 2
Regular Season
@ Prairie View A&M
Result
Win
Pregame
-9.42
Power
+1.38
Resume
+0.96
Postgame
-8.04
Week 1
Regular Season
vs Sul Ross State
Result
Win
Pregame
-9.42
Power
+0.01
Resume
+0.00
Postgame
-9.42
2025 Season Schedule And Rating Movement
Every result, every phase, and how the rating changed because of it.
| Week | Date | Game | Phase | Result | Close | ATS | Total | Pregame | Power Change | Resume Change | Postgame |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 31, 2025 | vs Sul Ross State DII | Regular Season | W 66-0 | -- | -- | -- | -9.42 | +0.01 | +0.00 | -9.42 |
| 2 | Sep 6, 2025 | @ Prairie View A&M FCS | Regular Season | W 27-21 | -- | -- | -- | -9.42 | +1.38 | +0.96 | -8.04 |
| 3 | Sep 14, 2025 | vs Langston University FBS | Regular Season | W 80-0 | -- | -- | -- | -8.04 | +2.98 | +0.25 | -5.06 |
| 4 | Sep 21, 2025 | vs Texas Wesleyan FBS | Regular Season | W 61-13 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 5 | Sep 27, 2025 | @ SE Louisiana FCS | Regular Season | L 31-45 | +18.0 | Cover | 53.5 | Over | -3.23 | -0.19 | -1.29 | -3.42 |
| 6 | Oct 5, 2025 | vs Houston Christian FCS | Regular Season | W 27-7 | -- | -- | -- | -3.42 | +1.21 | +0.26 | -2.21 |
| 8 | Oct 18, 2025 | @ Lamar FCS | Regular Season | L 21-23 | +3.5 | Cover | 51.5 | Under | -2.00 | +0.20 | -0.34 | -1.80 |
| 9 | Oct 26, 2025 | vs Incarnate Word FCS | Regular Season | W 56-28 | +4.5 | Cover | 54.5 | Over | -1.80 | +1.35 | +0.17 | -0.46 |
| 10 | Nov 1, 2025 | @ Stephen F. Austin FCS | Regular Season | L 17-41 | +10.0 | No cover | 55.5 | Over | -0.46 | -1.04 | -0.27 | -1.49 |
| 11 | Nov 8, 2025 | vs Nicholls FCS | Regular Season | W 28-21 | -- | -- | -- | -1.49 | +0.27 | +0.09 | -1.22 |
| 12 | Nov 16, 2025 | @ McNeese FCS | Regular Season | W 28-13 | -- | -- | -- | -1.22 | +0.99 | +0.13 | -0.23 |
| 13 | Nov 22, 2025 | vs East Texas A&M FCS | Regular Season | W 33-14 | -- | -- | -- | -0.23 | +0.64 | +0.10 | 0.41 |
Year-By-Year Results
The competitive story by season, kept cleanly tied to the year each season began.
| Season | Lens | Record | Final Rank | End Power | End Resume | Games | Points For | Points Against | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | CurrentThis season anchors the current board. | 9-3 | #93 | +0.7 | 72 | 12 | 475 | 226 | +249 |