Eastern Kentucky · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Eastern Kentucky · low confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Eastern KentuckyThe 2021 Opportunity Bowl
Eastern Kentucky wins a postseason bowl game, finishing 7–4
Eastern Kentucky5-7Hope-Doping·Offseason
Eastern Kentucky is the Kentucky program that won a bowl game five years ago and is still trying to climb back to that moment.
Standard GapA program that tasted postseason success in 2021 and has been chasing th…
The chip is five years old and fading: Eastern Kentucky won a bowl in 2021 and hasn't been back since. The Colonels know they can get there because they've been there — they just need to find the path…
low signal
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · at Western Carolina · Sat Aug 29 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
Eastern Kentucky is the Kentucky program that won a bowl game five years ago and is still trying to climb back to that moment.
Quiet weeks in Colonels country.
Eastern Kentucky · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 3-9
Base 5-7
Ceiling 8-4
floor3-9Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base5-7Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling8-4Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cooling
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Streak W1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Western Carolina · away
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Eastern Kentucky
—
Quiet weeks in Colonels country.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Eastern Kentucky"
— Eastern Kentucky fanbase · recurring line
0 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Eastern Kentucky · low confidence
Growing (53)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 5-7 (42% win rate)53
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#119 / 138 · 14th pct19.3
Pts allowed/game#59 / 138 · 58th pct24.3
All 15 stats
Other
First down pass rate#143 / 215 · 34th pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct0.40.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#163 / 167 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct0.50.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team20.2/gm#156 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct
Opp100.8/gm#13 / 166 · 93rd pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Red zone score %
Team100.0%100.0%#1 / 167 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Opp70.0%70.0%#22 / 166 · 87th pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Points / drive
Team0.60.1/gm#152 / 167 · 10th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Opp3.10.3/gm#148 / 166 · 11th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
Yards / drive
Team21.41.8/gm#159 / 167 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Opp39.63.3/gm#58 / 166 · 66th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Plays / drive
Team5.20.4/gm#161 / 167 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
Opp5.70.5/gm#3 / 166 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team33.3%33.3%#158 / 167 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Opp3.7%3.7%#162 / 166 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Standard-downs success allowed#144 / 172 · 17th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct54.0%54.0%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Eastern Kentucky · 2025 schedule & results5-7Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 46% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #165 | #30 | +38 | @Louisville | L 17–51 120 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #120 | #177 | -18 | Houston Christian | W 20–10 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #155 | #77 | +15 | @Marshall | L 7–38 123 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #154 | #189 | +10.5 | @West Georgia | L 12–33 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #176 | #199 | -2.5 | Nicholls | W 27–7 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #166 | #107 | +10 | Austin Peay | W 34–20 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #154 | #246 | -11.5 | @North Alabama | L 14–35 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #191 | #78 | +24 | Tarleton State | L 7–31 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #204 | #164 | +6.5 | @Central Arkansas | W 34–13 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #176 | #139 | +6.5 | Southern Utah | L 17–27 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #187 | #118 | +9 | Abilene Christian | L 10–17 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #189 | #238 | -6.5 | @Utah Tech | W 33–10 | 5-7 | 2-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Utah Tech | W 33–10 | — | — | — | +0.220 | 39.1% | 126.0% | |
| Nov 15 | Abilene Christian | L 10–17 | — | — | — | -0.044 | 30.0% | 118.8% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | Southern Utah | L 17–27 | — | — | — | +0.097 | 39.0% | 97.3% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 1 | @Central Arkansas | W 34–13 | — | — | — | +0.291 | 51.2% | 117.9% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 25 | Tarleton State | L 7–31 | — | — | — | -0.067 | 37.3% | 97.3% | |
| Oct 18 | @North Alabama | L 14–35 | — | — | — | +0.162 | 39.7% | 126.0% | |
| Oct 11 | Austin Peay | W 34–20 | — | — | — | +0.288 | 48.1% | 126.1% | |
| Sep 27 | Nicholls | W 27–7 | — | — | — | +0.129 | 36.8% | 108.4% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 20 | @West Georgia | L 12–33 | — | — | — | -0.047 | 34.3% | 144.0% | Most explosive |
| Sep 13 | @Marshall | L 7–38 | 102 | 2 | 25:56 | -0.147 | 19.6% | 132.8% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Houston Christian | W 20–10 | — | — | — | -0.111 | 28.7% | 70.3% | |
| Aug 30 | @Louisville | L 17–51 | 150 | 0 | 29:35 | -0.093 | 20.8% | 138.5% | Blowout loss |
| Season average (12 games) | 126 | 1.0 | +0.056 | 35.4% | 117.0% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Eastern Kentucky's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.06; 36th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 1: -0.09 raw vs. 0.00 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Eastern Kentucky · 2018-present
Elite
68% home win rate vs 39% on the road. margin runs +15.1 better at home. Roy Kidd Stadium seats 20,000, averaging 29% full (5,812 attendance, 12 games reported).
Home31-14Away18-28
Venue texture
66°F average kickoff temp; 18% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 34 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Eastern Kentucky
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
149-124-1
since 1954 · 41 seasons · .543 win rate
HOME
84-38-1
AWAY
58-80
NEUTRAL
7-6
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
UAC Standing · 2025
5th in the UAC
Eastern Kentucky sits 5th of 8 in the UAC at 2-4. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abilene Christian | 6-0 |
| 2 | Tarleton State | 5-1 |
| 3 | Austin Peay | 3-3 |
| 4 | West Georgia | 3-3 |
| 5 | Eastern Kentucky | 2-4 |
| 6 | Central Arkansas | 1-5 |
| 7 | North Alabama | 1-5 |
| 8 | West Florida | 0-0 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Moment of the Year · Eastern Kentucky · 2025
Moment of the Year · Eastern Kentucky · 2025Won 27-7 vs Nicholls
Week 5 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
FCS → NFL Pipeline
2024–2024
FCS → NFL PipelineDeveloping
1 picks last 5 cycles. The pipeline is real but still building volume.
1
picks · last 5 yrs
#239
Josiah Ezirim
Offensive Tackle · 2024 · New Orleans
#127 all-time · 1 first-round picksthe talent factory →
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site