Dayton · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Dayton · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Dayton1980 D-III national championship
Dayton wins the NCAA Division III football championship
Dayton7-4Hope-Doping·Offseason
Dayton is the Ohio program that won two NCAA Division III national championships and built a 17-year winning streak — an FCS institution for 30 years, now chasing the form that made it a dynasty.
Title DroughtSince 2015 · 10 yrs
Fans here believe dayton's chip is internal — a program measured against its own ceiling. The question isn't disrespect; it's whether the program can still access the standard it set for itself.
offseason · quiet
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · vs Fairmont State · Sat Aug 29 · 16:00 UTC
The experience
Dayton is the Ohio program that won two NCAA Division III national championships and built a 17-year winning streak — an FCS institution for 30 years, now chasing the form that made it a dynasty.
The Flyers keep the faith.
Dayton · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 5-7
Base 7-5
Ceiling 10-2
floor5-7Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base7-5Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling10-2Conference title + deep playoff run.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cooling
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Streak W1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Fairmont State · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Dayton
—
The Flyers keep the faith.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Dayton"
— Dayton fanbase · recurring line
14 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Dayton · medium confidence
Growing (59)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 7-4 (64% win rate)65
Volume — 14 effective signal-N53
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Dayton · 2025 schedule & results7-4Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 39% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #198 | #225 | +9.5 | @Eastern Illinois | L 14–24 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #218 | #258 | — | Thomas More College | W 38–0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #224 | #246 | +2.5 | @Robert Morris | W 17–14 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #208 | #263 | -25.5 | Stetson | W 48–14 | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #183 | #249 | -9.5 | @Morehead State | W 35–28 | 4-1 | 2-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #168 | #263 | -15 | @Valparaiso | W 41–10 | 5-1 | 3-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #157 | #205 | -2.5 | Butler | L 17–23 | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #167 | #113 | +8.5 | Presbyterian | W 35–19 | 6-2 | 4-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #153 | #181 | +3.5 | @San Diego | L 13–31 | 6-3 | 4-2 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #172 | #153 | +3.5 | Drake | L 6–14 | 6-4 | 4-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #182 | #260 | -17.5 | @Davidson | W 42–14 | 7-4 | 5-3 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Davidson | W 42–14 | — | — | — | +0.278 | 50.7% | 127.8% | Best success rate |
| Nov 15 | Drake | L 6–14 | — | — | — | -0.043 | 33.7% | 148.9% | One-score loss |
| Nov 1 | @San Diego | L 13–31 | — | — | — | -0.069 | 31.1% | 121.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 25 | Presbyterian | W 35–19 | — | — | — | +0.294 | 36.9% | 192.4% | |
| Oct 18 | Butler | L 17–23 | — | — | — | +0.157 | 31.6% | 170.8% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 11 | @Valparaiso | W 41–10 | — | — | — | +0.198 | 43.9% | 119.3% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 4 | @Morehead State | W 35–28 | — | — | — | +0.339 | 44.8% | 134.1% | One-score win |
| Sep 27 | Stetson | W 48–14 | — | — | — | +0.499 | 46.0% | 181.9% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | @Robert Morris | W 17–14 | — | — | — | +0.188 | 35.3% | 148.1% | One-score win |
| Sep 6 | Thomas More College | W 38–0 | — | — | — | +0.277 | 45.8% | 113.8% | Blowout win |
| Aug 28 | @Eastern Illinois | L 14–24 | — | — | — | +0.030 | 24.0% | 221.5% | Most explosive |
| Season average (11 games) | — | — | +0.195 | 38.5% | 152.8% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Dayton's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.20; 61st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 6: 0.27 raw vs. 0.08 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Dayton · 2018-present
Elite
70% home win rate vs 47% on the road. margin runs +14.8 better at home. Welcome Stadium seats 11,000, averaging 29% full (3,224 attendance, 11 games reported).
Home26-11Away18-20
Venue texture
65°F average kickoff temp; 15% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 26 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Dayton
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
234-221-10
since 1923 · 62 seasons · .503 win rate
HOME
141-81-8
AWAY
85-135-2
NEUTRAL
8-5
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Pioneer Standing · 2025
4th in the Pioneer
Dayton sits 4th of 12 in the Pioneer at 5-3. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake | 7-1 |
| 2 | Presbyterian | 6-2 |
| 3 | San Diego | 6-2 |
| 4 | Dayton | 5-3 |
| 5 | St. Thomas (MN) | 5-3 |
| 6 | Butler | 4-4 |
| 7 | Morehead State | 4-4 |
| 8 | Marist | 3-5 |
| 9 | Stetson | 2-6 |
| 10 | Davidson | 1-7 |
| 11 | Valparaiso | 1-7 |
| 12 | Jacksonville | 0-0 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1989 D-III national championship
A second D-III national title — proof of sustained excellence
17-year winning streak (1987–2003)
A remarkable run of consecutive winning seasons that made Dayton synonymous with consistency
12 Pioneer League titles (1993–2015)
The dynasty era at FCS, ending with the 2015 championship — the program's last national-tier claim
Moment of the Year · Dayton · 2025
Moment of the Year · Dayton · 2025Won 38-0 vs Thomas More College
Week 2 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
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