Valparaiso · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Valparaiso · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Valparaiso2008 FCS playoff run
Valparaiso makes the FCS playoffs for the first time
Valparaiso2-10Hope-Doping·Offseason
Valparaiso is the Indiana program that competed for FCS playoff bids in the 2000s and 2010s but went 2–10 in 2025 — now rebuilding under new coach Andy Waddle with the Hoosier Helmet Trophy rivalry against Butler anchoring the annual conversation.
Standard GapThree playoff runs in 2008–2010 vs a down 2025 season and a 407–552–27 a…
Fans here believe valparaiso has no chip. The program is struggling to find its footing after the 2021 rebranding and two decades removed from its last playoff run.
low signal
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · vs Lawrence Tech · Sat Aug 29 · 17:00 UTC
The experience
Valparaiso is the Indiana program that competed for FCS playoff bids in the 2000s and 2010s but went 2–10 in 2025 — now rebuilding under new coach Andy Waddle with the Hoosier Helmet Trophy rivalry against Butler anchoring the annual conversation.
Quiet weeks in Beacons country.
Valparaiso · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 0-12
Base 2-10
Ceiling 5-7
floor0-12Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base2-10Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling5-7Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cold
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Streak L1Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 1-9
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Lawrence Tech · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Valparaiso
—
Quiet weeks in Beacons country.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Beacons."
— Valparaiso fanbase · recurring line
3 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Valparaiso · medium confidence
Stable (39)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 2-10 (17% win rate)39
Volume — 3 effective signal-N40
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Valparaiso · 2025 schedule & results2-10Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 52% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #246 | — | — | Virginia Lynchburg | W 67–10 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #232 | — | — | Adrian | L 7–10 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #256 | #186 | +17 | @Western Illinois | L 30–51 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #256 | #122 | +44 | @North Dakota | L 7–58 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #261 | #184 | +25 | @Drake | L 0–41 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #263 | #168 | +15 | Dayton | L 10–41 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #269 | #169 | +27.5 | @St. Thomas (MN) | L 17–55 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #269 | #249 | +6.5 | Morehead State | L 13–17 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #267 | #134 | +31.5 | @Presbyterian | L 14–43 | 1-8 | 0-5 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #271 | #162 | +23.5 | San Diego | L 27–43 | 1-9 | 0-6 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #270 | #269 | -2.5 | Stetson | W 32–31 | 2-9 | 1-6 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #268 | #206 | +16.5 | @Butler | L 20–27 | 2-10 | 1-7 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Butler | L 20–27 | — | — | — | +0.299 | 45.5% | 124.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 15 | Stetson | W 32–31 | — | — | — | +0.135 | 52.5% | 93.8% | Best success rate |
| Nov 8 | San Diego | L 27–43 | — | — | — | +0.096 | 35.8% | 165.6% | Most explosive |
| Nov 1 | @Presbyterian | L 14–43 | — | — | — | +0.057 | 38.2% | 114.9% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 25 | Morehead State | L 13–17 | — | — | — | +0.046 | 37.5% | 132.0% | One-score loss |
| Oct 18 | @St. Thomas (MN) | L 17–55 | — | — | — | -0.039 | 31.7% | 134.3% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 11 | Dayton | L 10–41 | — | — | — | -0.153 | 31.7% | 125.8% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 4 | @Drake | L 0–41 | — | — | — | -0.339 | 25.9% | 84.3% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | @North Dakota | L 7–58 | — | — | — | -0.092 | 14.8% | 154.5% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 6 | Adrian | L 7–10 | — | — | — | -0.127 | 40.9% | 87.6% | One-score loss |
| Aug 30 | Virginia Lynchburg | W 67–10 | — | — | — | +0.268 | 45.3% | 157.7% | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (11 games) | — | — | +0.014 | 36.3% | 125.0% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Valparaiso's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.01; 26th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.00. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.27 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Valparaiso · 2018-present
Strong
39% home win rate vs 14% on the road. margin runs +13.1 better at home. Brown Field seats 5,000, averaging 31% full (1,566 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home15-23Away6-35
Venue texture
62°F average kickoff temp; 19% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 27 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Valparaiso
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
55-171-2
since 1920 · 25 seasons · .241 win rate
HOME
33-73-1
AWAY
13-86-1
NEUTRAL
9-12
1920s
1930s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Pioneer Standing · 2025
11th in the Pioneer
Valparaiso is 11th of 12 in the Pioneer at 1-7. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on playoff positioning and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake | 7-1 |
| 2 | Presbyterian | 6-2 |
| 3 | San Diego | 6-2 |
| 4 | Dayton | 5-3 |
| 5 | St. Thomas (MN) | 5-3 |
| 6 | Butler | 4-4 |
| 7 | Morehead State | 4-4 |
| 8 | Marist | 3-5 |
| 9 | Stetson | 2-6 |
| 10 | Davidson | 1-7 |
| 11 | Valparaiso | 1-7 |
| 12 | Jacksonville | 0-0 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2009 FCS playoff run
Valparaiso repeats as an FCS playoff team
2010 FCS playoff run
Valparaiso makes it three straight FCS playoff appearances
2021 Crusaders → Beacons rebrand
Valparaiso rebrands from Crusaders to Beacons — a necessary ethical decision that severs 100+ years of tradition
Wound
Moment of the Year · Valparaiso · 2025
Moment of the Year · Valparaiso · 2025Won 67-10 vs Virginia Lynchburg
Week 1 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
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