San Diego · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · San Diego · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · San Diego2010
Jim Harbaugh era
The years when Jim Harbaugh was building San Diego football and setting the template for non-scholarship success
San Diego8-4Hope-Doping·Offseason
San Diego is the West Coast non-scholarship FCS dynasty — 12 Pioneer League titles, multiple playoff runs, and the program where Jim Harbaugh and Josh Johnson proved talent identification beats recruitment budgets.
Title DroughtSince 2019 · 6 yrs
Fans here believe san Diego's chip is the disrespect of the non-scholarship narrative — the media that treats FCS as minor-league football and San Diego's success as a curiosity, not proof of concept.…
offseason · quiet
Approaching
31 days
until kickoff · vs UC Davis · Sun Sep 6 · 02:00 UTC
The experience
San Diego is the West Coast non-scholarship FCS dynasty — 12 Pioneer League titles, multiple playoff runs, and the program where Jim Harbaugh and Josh Johnson proved talent identification beats recruitment budgets.
The Toreros are patient.
San Diego · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 6-6
Base 8-4
Ceiling 11-1
floor6-6Competitive but likely outside the at-large field.
base8-4Conference title contender. Playoff bid realistic.
ceiling11-1Conference title + deep playoff run.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Hot
Five straight. The momentum tier on every blog right now.
Streak W5Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Opens Sep 6
vs UC Davis · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on San Diego
—
The Toreros are patient.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go San Diego"
— San Diego fanbase · recurring line
7 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · San Diego · medium confidence
Growing (57)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 8-4 (67% win rate)67
Volume — 7 effective signal-N47
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
San Diego · 2025 schedule & results8-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 45% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 31 | #131 | #234 | -1.5 | Cal Poly | L 17–41 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #197 | #186 | +20.5 | Southern Utah | W 30–27 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #184 | #80 | +31 | @Montana State | L 7–41 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #187 | — | +7.5 | @Princeton | W 42–35 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #179 | #187 | -1 | St. Thomas (MN) | W 30–27 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #176 | #239 | -8.5 | @Marist | L 14–19 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #183 | #163 | -1.5 | Drake | L 16–19 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #180 | #265 | -28.5 | @Davidson | W 40–28 | 4-4 | 2-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #181 | #153 | -3.5 | Dayton | W 31–13 | 5-4 | 3-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #162 | #271 | -23.5 | @Valparaiso | W 43–27 | 6-4 | 4-2 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #162 | #194 | -7.5 | Butler | W 29–7 | 7-4 | 5-2 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #150 | #269 | -22 | @Stetson | W 42–8 | 8-4 | 6-2 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Stetson | W 42–8 | — | — | — | +0.192 | 53.2% | 99.5% | Best success rate |
| Nov 15 | Butler | W 29–7 | — | — | — | +0.232 | 42.4% | 134.0% | |
| Nov 8 | @Valparaiso | W 43–27 | — | — | — | +0.270 | 42.7% | 144.1% | |
| Nov 1 | Dayton | W 31–13 | — | — | — | +0.081 | 33.8% | 147.1% | |
| Oct 25 | @Davidson | W 40–28 | — | — | — | +0.409 | 49.4% | 130.0% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 11 | Drake | L 16–19 | — | — | — | +0.066 | 29.4% | 124.0% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | @Marist | L 14–19 | — | — | — | -0.160 | 28.8% | 120.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 27 | St. Thomas (MN) | W 30–27 | — | — | — | +0.256 | 35.9% | 164.0% | Most explosive |
| Sep 20 | @Princeton | W 42–35 | — | — | — | +0.341 | 45.2% | 131.9% | One-score win |
| Sep 13 | @Montana State | L 7–41 | — | — | — | -0.022 | 29.4% | 148.3% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 7 | Southern Utah | W 30–27 | — | — | — | +0.199 | 39.7% | 132.3% | One-score win |
| Aug 31 | Cal Poly | L 17–41 | — | — | — | +0.135 | 38.1% | 121.4% | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (12 games) | — | — | +0.167 | 39.0% | 133.0% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of San Diego's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.17; 65th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.17 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · San Diego · 2018-present
Strong
74% home win rate vs 51% on the road. margin runs +8.8 better at home. Torero Stadium seats 6,000, averaging 45% full (2,692 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home29-10Away20-19
Venue texture
74°F average kickoff temp; 0% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 29 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · San Diego
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
166-68-1
since 1958 · 24 seasons · .706 win rate
HOME
98-22-1
AWAY
58-41
NEUTRAL
10-5
1950s
1960s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Pioneer Standing · 2025
3rd in the Pioneer
San Diego is 3rd in the Pioneer at 6-2. 2 teams above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake | 7-1 |
| 2 | Presbyterian | 6-2 |
| 3 | San Diego | 6-2 |
| 4 | Dayton | 5-3 |
| 5 | St. Thomas (MN) | 5-3 |
| 6 | Butler | 4-4 |
| 7 | Morehead State | 4-4 |
| 8 | Marist | 3-5 |
| 9 | Stetson | 2-6 |
| 10 | Davidson | 1-7 |
| 11 | Valparaiso | 1-7 |
| 12 | Jacksonville | 0-0 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2016–2017 FCS playoff runs
Two consecutive years of FCS playoff advancement without scholarship funding
12 Pioneer League titles (2005–2019)
A 15-year span with 12 conference championships — the dynasty standard
Moment of the Year · San Diego · 2025
Moment of the Year · San Diego · 2025Won 31-13 vs Dayton
Week 10 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
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