UC Davis routs San Diego 49-17
UC Davis routed San Diego 49-17. Share this game
We had San Diego favored. UC Davis won.
Next: UC Davis lost to SMU 56-10, Sat Sep 12
Next: San Diego lost to Idaho State 59-17, Sat Sep 12
How it swung
The turning point: Mbakwe 2-yd TD run, San Diego goes ahead 7-0 (Q1, 3:24). UC Davis went from 76% to 52% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave UC Davis a 47% chance, and the closing betting line (UC Davis was a 14.5-point favorite) put it at 88%.
UC Davis · Q2 10:26UC Davis 49-17 San Diego
UC Davis wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.San Diego 17-49 UC DavisSan Diego lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:24Mbakwe 2-yd TD run, San Diego goes ahead 7-0UC Davis 76% → 52% (−24)
- 2Q2 11:55InterceptionCleeland intercepted by Lopez at the USD00UC Davis 88% → 73% (−15)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:24Mbakwe 2-yd TD run, San Diego goes ahead 7-0San Diego 24% → 48% (+24)
- 2Q2 11:55InterceptionCleeland intercepted by Lopez at the USD00San Diego 12% → 27% (+15)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (UC Davis -14.5), at 81% for UC Davis (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
UC Davis scored on 7 of its 15 drives; San Diego on 3 of its 15.
UC Davis’s drives are teal, San Diego’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From San Diego’s side
San Diego’s best moment: Mbakwe 2-yd TD run, San Diego goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 3:24). It lifted San Diego’s win chance by 24 points.
Box score
UC Davis 49, San Diego 17
UC Davis covered −14.5 by 17.5. The total, 66, went over 54.5.
UC Davis leaders
- Passing Treynor Cleeland 22 of 31, 294 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Matteo Perez 9 for 123 yds, 1 TD; Jordan Fisher 12 for 64 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Samuel Gbatu Jr. 9 for 129 yds, 2 TD; Jordan Fisher 4 for 64 yds, 1 TD
San Diego leaders
- Passing Dom Nankil 16 of 31, 177 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Adam Criter 14 for 54 yds; CJ Ceron 4 for 42 yds
- Receiving Cole Monach 6 for 72 yds, 1 TD; Carter Pruitt 4 for 50 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
UC Davis · 9-4
Rated 116th in our preseason ratings, 116th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 31-42 vs Illinois State #93 of 667
lost by 11 as a 3-point favorite
W 47-26 vs Rhode Island #100 of 667
W 31-27 vs Sacramento State #109 of 667
won by 4 as a 5-point favorite
L 17-38 @ Montana State #44 of 667
lost by 21 as a 19-point underdog
W 28-14 @ Idaho #162 of 667
won by 14 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 36-38 vs Idaho State #194 of 667
lost by 2 as an 11.5-point favorite
W 27-16 @ Northern Colorado #201 of 667
won by 11 as an 8.5-point favorite
W 45-24 vs Northern Arizona #179 of 667
won by 21 as a 7-point favorite
W 34-27 @ Cal Poly #172 of 667
W 34-12 vs Weber State #192 of 667
won by 22 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 50-34 vs Southern Utah #163 of 667
won by 16 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 10-70 @ WashingtonTop 25 #34 of 667
lost by 60 as a 29.5-point underdog
W 31-24 @ Utah Tech #229 of 667
won by 7 as an 18.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
San Diego · 8-4
Rated 142nd in our preseason ratings.
W 42-8 @ Stetson #296 of 667
won by 34 as a 22-point favorite
W 29-7 vs Butler #211 of 667
won by 22 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 43-27 @ Valparaiso #273 of 667
won by 16 as a 23.5-point favorite
W 31-13 vs Dayton #181 of 667
won by 18 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 40-28 @ Davidson #264 of 667
won by 12 as a 28.5-point favorite
L 16-19 vs Drake #169 of 667
lost by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 14-19 @ Marist #236 of 667
lost by 5 as an 8.5-point favorite
W 30-27 vs St. Thomas (MN) #186 of 667
won by 3 as a 1-point favorite
W 42-35 @ Princeton #244 of 667
won by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 7-41 @ Montana State #83 of 667
lost by 34 as a 31-point underdog
W 30-27 vs Southern Utah #155 of 667
won by 3 as a 20.5-point underdog
L 17-41 vs Cal Poly #223 of 667
lost by 24 as a 1.5-point favorite
The series
UC Davis leads the series 9-1
10 meetings since 2006 · UC Davis has won the last 7
- 2022UC Davis 43-13
- 2021UC Davis 53-7
- 2019UC Davis 38-35
- 2018UC Davis 54-21
- 2017UC Davis 35-7
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on San Diego’s chances here.
UC Davis favored by 14.5 · Total 54.5
How games like this usually go
UC Davis by 14.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward San Diego.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: +15.5 → +14.5 · Total: 57.5 → 54.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds