Northern Colorado · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Northern Colorado · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Northern Colorado1996 Division II Championship
Northern Colorado wins the NCAA Division II national championship
Northern Colorado4-8Hope-Doping·Offseason
Northern Colorado is the small mountain school that won back-to-back NCAA Division II national championships (1996–97) and has spent 30 years in FCS contentedly settling into mid-tier football, naming itself after a totem pole and never chasing the titles that are gone.
Standard GapA program that touched national excellence in Division II, then reclassi…
Northern Colorado carries no resentment — the fanbase has made peace with the Div II era being a separate, cherished chapter.
low signal
Approaching
24 days
until kickoff · vs Weber State · Sun Aug 30 · 01:00 UTC
The experience
Northern Colorado is the small mountain school that won back-to-back NCAA Division II national championships (1996–97) and has spent 30 years in FCS contentedly settling into mid-tier football, naming itself after a totem pole and never chasing the titles that are gone.
The Bears are in the woods.
Northern Colorado · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 2-10
Base 4-8
Ceiling 7-5
floor2-10Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base4-8Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling7-5Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cold
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Streak W1Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 3-7
The forecast
Opens Aug 30
vs Weber State · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Northern Colorado
—
The Bears are in the woods.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Bears."
— Northern Colorado fanbase · recurring line
5 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Northern Colorado · medium confidence
Stable (46)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 4-8 (33% win rate)48
Volume — 5 effective signal-N44
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Northern Colorado · 2025 schedule & results4-8Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 47% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #258 | #341 | — | Chadron St | W 17–3 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #255 | #95 | +34.5 | @Colorado State | L 17–21 134 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #252 | #114 | +21.5 | @South Dakota | L 17–24 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #240 | #165 | +1.5 | @Houston Christian | W 26–23 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #226 | #200 | +3.5 | Idaho State | L 18–26 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #224 | #151 | +18.5 | @Idaho | W 49–33 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 19 | #191 | #136 | +15 | @Sacramento State | L 35–40 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #189 | #104 | +8.5 | UC Davis | L 16–27 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #201 | #67 | +23.5 | Montana State | L 7–55 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #216 | #166 | +12.5 | @Northern Arizona | L 10–49 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #230 | #196 | +3.5 | @Eastern Washington | L 7–27 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #237 | #259 | -10.5 | Portland State | W 24–13 | 4-8 | 2-5 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | Portland State | W 24–13 | — | — | — | +0.176 | 36.7% | 139.9% | |
| Nov 15 | @Eastern Washington | L 7–27 | — | — | — | -0.106 | 27.4% | 160.5% | Most explosive |
| Nov 8 | @Northern Arizona | L 10–49 | — | — | — | -0.068 | 40.9% | 111.0% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 1 | Montana State | L 7–55 | — | — | — | -0.188 | 35.1% | 91.5% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 25 | UC Davis | L 16–27 | — | — | — | +0.091 | 43.5% | 95.6% | |
| Oct 19 | @Sacramento State | L 35–40 | — | — | — | +0.138 | 53.6% | 115.2% | Best success rate |
| Oct 11 | @Idaho | W 49–33 | — | — | — | +0.347 | 52.3% | 124.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 27 | Idaho State | L 18–26 | — | — | — | +0.203 | 39.4% | 153.5% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | @Houston Christian | W 26–23 | — | — | — | +0.026 | 40.8% | 99.5% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 13 | @South Dakota | L 17–24 | — | — | — | +0.165 | 44.6% | 121.9% | One-score loss |
| Sep 6 | @Colorado State | L 17–21 | 223 | 2 | 29:23 | -0.073 | 29.0% | 138.7% | One-score loss |
| Aug 30 | Chadron St | W 17–3 | — | — | — | +0.120 | 38.5% | 127.3% | |
| Season average (12 games) | 223 | 2.0 | +0.069 | 40.2% | 123.3% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Northern Colorado's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.07; 27th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.00. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.12 raw vs. 0.00 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Northern Colorado · 2018-present
Above-Average
19% home win rate vs 18% on the road. margin runs +6.0 better at home. Nottingham Field seats 8,500, averaging 43% full (3,651 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home7-29Away8-36
Venue texture
68°F average kickoff temp; 0% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 25 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Northern Colorado
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
110-266-7
since 1905 · 55 seasons · .287 win rate
HOME
71-111-5
AWAY
37-146-2
NEUTRAL
2-9
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1970s
1980s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Big Sky Standing · 2025
9th in the Big Sky
Northern Colorado is 9th of 13 in the Big Sky at 2-5. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on playoff positioning and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State | 9-0 |
| 2 | UC Davis | 7-2 |
| 3 | Montana | 6-2 |
| 4 | Northern Arizona | 6-4 |
| 5 | Idaho State | 5-4 |
| 6 | Eastern Washington | 4-3 |
| 7 | Idaho | 3-5 |
| 8 | Southern Utah | 2-2 |
| 9 | Northern Colorado | 2-5 |
| 10 | Weber State | 2-5 |
| 11 | Cal Poly | 1-6 |
| 12 | Portland State | 1-6 |
| 13 | Utah Tech | 0-4 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1997 Division II Championship
Northern Colorado wins back-to-back Division II titles, cementing the dynasty
Moment of the Year · Northern Colorado · 2025
Moment of the Year · Northern Colorado · 2025Won 17-3 vs Chadron St
Week 1 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
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