Weber State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Weber State · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Weber State2017 FCS Quarterfinal
Weber State reaches the FCS playoffs and wins through the second round
Weber State4-8Hope-Doping·Offseason
Weber State is the Wildcat program that won four consecutive Big Sky titles (2017–2020) and reached the FCS quarterfinals (2008, 2017) — and now rebuilds after a mid-season coaching change, asking whether the Jay Hill dynasty is truly over.
Title DroughtSince 2020 · 5 yrs
Weber State carries no chip — the fanbase is focused on rebuilding from the rubble of 2025.
offseason · quiet
Approaching
24 days
until kickoff · at Northern Colorado · Sun Aug 30 · 01:00 UTC
The experience
Weber State is the Wildcat program that won four consecutive Big Sky titles (2017–2020) and reached the FCS quarterfinals (2008, 2017) — and now rebuilds after a mid-season coaching change, asking whether the Jay Hill dynasty is truly over.
The Wildcats are on the prowl.
Weber State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 2-10
Base 4-8
Ceiling 7-5
floor2-10Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base4-8Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling7-5Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cold
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Streak W1Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Opens Aug 30
vs Northern Colorado · away
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Weber State
—
The Wildcats are on the prowl.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Wildcats."
— Weber State fanbase · recurring line
13 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Weber State · medium confidence
Stable (50)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 4-8 (33% win rate)48
Volume — 12 effective signal-N52
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#95 / 138 · 32nd pct23.1
Pts allowed/game#134 / 138 · 4th pct38.3
All 18 stats
Other
H1 epa per play#158 / 162 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct-0.1-0.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#161 / 167 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct0.50.0/gm
First down pass rate#200 / 215 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 11 · 27th pct0.30.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team20.2/gm#156 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp131.1/gm#23 / 166 · 87th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct
Red zone score %
Team50.0%50.0%#157 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp61.5%61.5%#4 / 166 · 98th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct
Points / drive
Team0.40.0/gm#159 / 167 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp2.10.2/gm#106 / 166 · 37th pct#59 / 70 · 17th pct
Yards / drive
Team23.72.0/gm#156 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp50.24.2/gm#158 / 166 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Plays / drive
Team5.50.5/gm#160 / 167 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp6.40.5/gm#59 / 166 · 65th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team20.8%20.8%#142 / 167 · 16th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct
Opp4.2%4.2%#157 / 166 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Standard-downs success allowed#119 / 172 · 31st pct#56 / 70 · 21st pct50.6%50.6%
Line yards / carry allowed#150 / 155 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct3.73.7
Stuff rate forced#90 / 155 · 43rd pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct17.5%17.5%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Weber State · 2025 schedule & results4-8Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 58% · 2 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #166 | #47 | +27.5 | @James Madison | L 10–45 128 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #135 | #80 | +31.5 | @Arizona | L 3–48 122 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #156 | #140 | -3 | @McNeese | W 42–41 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #155 | #223 | -16 | Butler | W 38–24 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 28 | #164 | #118 | +16.5 | @UC Davis | L 12–34 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 12 | #186 | #157 | +8.5 | Sacramento State | L 27–55 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #216 | #242 | -6 | @Portland State | W 43–27 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #205 | #188 | +1.5 | Eastern Washington | L 20–23 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #212 | #90 | +19.5 | Montana | L 17–38 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #217 | #58 | +28.5 | @Montana State | L 14–66 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #219 | #181 | +13.5 | @Idaho State | L 3–31 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #230 | #153 | +14 | Northern Arizona | W 48–28 | 4-8 | 2-5 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | Northern Arizona | W 48–28 | — | — | — | +0.262 | 40.0% | 180.8% | Most explosive |
| Nov 15 | @Idaho State | L 3–31 | — | — | — | -0.087 | 22.4% | 113.9% | Blowout loss |
| Nov 8 | @Montana State | L 14–66 | — | — | — | -0.109 | 34.3% | 85.1% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 1 | Montana | L 17–38 | — | — | — | -0.072 | 32.9% | 107.4% | |
| Oct 25 | Eastern Washington | L 20–23 | — | — | — | +0.070 | 31.2% | 143.0% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 18 | @Portland State | W 43–27 | — | — | — | +0.110 | 43.9% | 120.2% | |
| Oct 12 | Sacramento State | L 27–55 | — | — | — | +0.129 | 40.8% | 116.2% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 28 | @UC Davis | L 12–34 | — | — | — | -0.020 | 41.2% | 95.5% | |
| Sep 21 | Butler | W 38–24 | — | — | — | +0.103 | 48.4% | 108.8% | Best success rate |
| Sep 13 | @McNeese | W 42–41 | — | — | — | +0.300 | 42.0% | 154.8% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 7 | @Arizona | L 3–48 | 184 | 2 | 27:21 | -0.140 | 28.0% | 81.0% | Blowout loss |
| Aug 30 | @James Madison | L 10–45 | 148 | 3 | 27:33 | -0.140 | 25.0% | 97.8% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (12 games) | 166 | 2.5 | +0.034 | 35.9% | 117.0% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Weber State's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.03; 17th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.00. The widest gap came in week 1: -0.14 raw vs. -0.00 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Weber State · 2018-present
Above-Average
64% home win rate vs 53% on the road. margin runs +6.4 better at home. Stewart Stadium seats 17,500, averaging 34% full (5,969 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home27-15Away24-21
Venue texture
61°F average kickoff temp; 15% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 26 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Weber State
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
132-166
since 1962 · 60 seasons · .442 win rate
HOME
74-51
AWAY
54-109
NEUTRAL
4-6
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Big Sky Standing · 2025
10th in the Big Sky
Weber State is 10th of 13 in the Big Sky at 2-5. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on playoff positioning and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State | 9-0 |
| 2 | UC Davis | 7-2 |
| 3 | Montana | 6-2 |
| 4 | Northern Arizona | 6-4 |
| 5 | Idaho State | 5-4 |
| 6 | Eastern Washington | 4-3 |
| 7 | Idaho | 3-5 |
| 8 | Southern Utah | 2-2 |
| 9 | Northern Colorado | 2-5 |
| 10 | Weber State | 2-5 |
| 11 | Cal Poly | 1-6 |
| 12 | Portland State | 1-6 |
| 13 | Utah Tech | 0-4 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2017–2020 Big Sky Dynasty
Weber State wins four consecutive Big Sky championships, establishing modern program dominance
Moment of the Year · Weber State · 2025
Moment of the Year · Weber State · 2025Won 38-24 vs Butler
Week 4 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Playoff History
Playoff HistoryRecent postseason (2019): 0-1
Most recent: 2019 — loss 30-14 (away). Last 5 postseason: 0-1.
2019
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