Weber State beats UC Davis 38-14

Team pages: UC Davis · Weber State

UC Davis5-414
Weber State6-438Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Stewart Stadium, Ogden, Utah · Crowd 5,975ESPN+

Weber State beat UC Davis 38-14.

We had UC Davis favored. Weber State won.

Next: UC Davis vs Utah Tech, Sat Nov 7 · 7:00 PM ET

Next: Weber State at Northern Arizona, Sat Nov 14 · 4:00 PM ET

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Weber State a 49% chance, and the closing betting line (Weber State was a 1.5-point underdog) put it at 45%.

Weber State won by 24, after dipping to 47% in the first quarter.

UC Davis never had better than a 53% chance.

FinalWeber State 38-14 UC DavisWeber State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfWeber StateWon38-1412+13+13Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfWeber StateWon38-1412Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfWeber StateLowest 0%Lost14-3812−13−13Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfWeber StateLowest 0%Lost14-3812Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 3:03Dahle 12-yd TD pass to Kalama, Weber State leads 10-0Weber State 67% → 80% (+13)
  2. 2Q2 7:15Dahle 23-yd pass to MayberryWeber State 72% → 85% (+13)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 3:03Dahle 12-yd TD pass to Kalama, Weber State leads 10-0UC Davis 33% → 20% (−13)
  2. 2Q2 7:15Dahle 23-yd pass to MayberryUC Davis 28% → 15% (−13)
Weber State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (UC Davis -1.5), at 53% for Weber State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Weber State scored on 7 of its 11 drives; UC Davis on 2 of its 11.

Weber State’s drives are teal, UC Davis’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1UC Davis: Punt, from 75 yards out to 53PuntWeber State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 4Field goalUC Davis: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntWeber State: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWeber State: Field goal, from 64 yards out to 14Field goalQ2UC Davis: Punt, from 84 yards out to 96PuntWeber State: Interception, from 67 yards out to 14InterceptionUC Davis: Punt, from 80 yards out to 76PuntWeber State: Touchdown, from 56 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Turned over on downs, from 68 yards out to 10DownsQ3Weber State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownWeber State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntUC Davis: Turned over on downs, from 56 yards out to 36DownsWeber State: Punt, from 64 yards out to 40PuntUC Davis: Turned over on downs, from 84 yards out to 18DownsQ4Weber State: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Interception, from 75 yards out to 14InterceptionWeber State: Field goal, from 24 yards out to 25Field goalUC Davis: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 31DownsWeber State: End of game, from 69 yards out to 48End of game

From UC Davis’s side

UC Davis’s best moment: Cleeland 38-yd TD pass to Jones, cuts it to 10-7 (Q1 1:04). It lifted UC Davis’s win chance by 11 points.

Box score

Weber State 38, UC Davis 14

Weber State covered +1.5 by 25.5. The total, 52, stayed under 67.5.

UC Davis leaders

  • Passing Treynor Cleeland 23 of 38, 265 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jordan Fisher 27 for 128 yds; Mason Walsh 3 for 8 yds
  • Receiving Zach Jones 4 for 76 yds, 1 TD; Laviel Pickett 5 for 73 yds

Weber State leaders

  • Passing Nate Dahle 21 of 40, 309 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Nate Dahle 7 for 79 yds, 1 TD; Seth Rigtrup 16 for 74 yds
  • Receiving Robert Young 4 for 72 yds; Noah Kjar 7 for 67 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

UC Davis · 5-3

Rated 116th in our preseason ratings, 157th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 33-6 vs Northern Colorado No. 239 of 668 teams

won by 27 as a 9.5-point favorite

UC Davis won 33-6 vs Northern Colorado. Chance to win started at 81%, low 80%, high better than 99%.

L 17-38 @ Southern Utah No. 156 of 668 teams

lost by 21 as a 4.5-point favorite

UC Davis lost 17-38 at Southern Utah. Chance to win started at 52%, low under 1%, high 83%.

W 49-38 vs Eastern Washington No. 196 of 668 teams

won by 11 as an 8.5-point favorite

UC Davis won 49-38 vs Eastern Washington. Chance to win started at 73%, low 72%, high better than 99%.

L 22-62 vs Montana No. 107 of 668 teams

lost by 40 as a 3-point favorite

UC Davis lost 22-62 vs Montana. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 67%.

W 45-7 vs Stetson No. 259 of 668 teams

won by 38 as a 47.5-point favorite

UC Davis won 45-7 vs Stetson. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

L 10-56 @ SMUTop 25 No. 12 of 668 teams

lost by 46 as a 32.5-point underdog

UC Davis lost 10-56 at SMU. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.

W 49-17 @ San Diego No. 151 of 668 teams

won by 32 as a 14.5-point favorite

UC Davis won 49-17 at San Diego. Chance to win started at 81%, low 49%, high better than 99%.

W 31-24 @ Portland State No. 242 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 25.5-point favorite

Last three games

Weber State · 5-4

Rated 238th in our preseason ratings, 181st now, up 57 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 7-point win over Idaho State as a 4.5-point underdog.

L 33-38 @ Montana State No. 73 of 668 teams

lost by 5 as a 25.5-point underdog

Weber State lost 33-38 at Montana State. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 39%.

W 27-20 vs Idaho State No. 153 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 4.5-point underdog

Weber State won 27-20 vs Idaho State. Chance to win started at 45%, low 13%, high 97%.

W 38-27 vs Idaho No. 180 of 668 teams

won by 11 as a 4-point underdog

Weber State won 38-27 vs Idaho. Chance to win started at 65%, low 54%, high better than 99%.

W 42-34 @ Cal Poly No. 214 of 668 teams

won by 8 as a 6-point underdog

Weber State won 42-34 at Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 26%, low 8%, high better than 99%.

L 41-44 vs Portland State No. 251 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 7-point favorite

W 49-20 vs Northwestern State No. 266 of 668 teams

won by 29 as a 35.5-point favorite

Weber State won 49-20 vs Northwestern State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

L 21-52 @ Colorado No. 142 of 668 teams

lost by 31 as a 38.5-point underdog

Weber State lost 21-52 at Colorado. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 42-47 @ Southern Utah No. 149 of 668 teams

lost by 5 as a 14.5-point underdog

W 30-29 @ Northern Colorado No. 254 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 3-point underdog

Weber State won 30-29 at Northern Colorado. Chance to win started at 46%, low 25%, high 90%.

Week by week

Weber State

Wk 4: L 41-44 vs Portland State▼3Portland…Wk 5: W 42-34 at Cal Poly▲8Cal PolyWk 6: W 38-27 vs Idaho▲11IdahoWk 7: W 27-20 vs Idaho State▲7Idaho St.Wk 8: L 33-38 at Montana State▼5Montana…
  • Wk 4Lvs Portland State41-44
  • Wk 5Wat Cal Poly42-34
  • Wk 6Wvs Idaho38-27
  • Wk 7Wvs Idaho State27-20
  • Wk 8Lat Montana State33-38

UC Davis

Wk 3: W 45-7 vs Stetson▲38StetsonWk 4: L 22-62 vs Montana▼40MontanaWk 5: W 49-38 vs Eastern Washington▲11E. Washi…Wk 7: L 17-38 at Southern Utah▼21S. UtahWk 8: W 33-6 vs Northern Colorado▲27N. Color…
  • Wk 3Wvs Stetson45-7
  • Wk 4Lvs Montana22-62
  • Wk 5Wvs Eastern Washington49-38
  • Wk 7Lat Southern Utah17-38
  • Wk 8Wvs Northern Colorado33-6

Power rating by week

UC Davis is rated 1.6 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-1-7-12Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Weber StateUC Davis

The series

Weber State leads the series 6-4

10 meetings since 2004 · UC Davis has won the last 2

Weber State wonUC Davis won2004: UC Davis by 22010: Weber State by 112015: Weber State by 202016: Weber State by 32017: Weber State by 382019: Weber State by 162021: UC Davis by 32022: Weber State by 52023: UC Davis by 12025: UC Davis by 2220042025
  • 2025UC Davis 34-12
  • 2023UC Davis 17-16
  • 2022Weber State 17-12
  • 2021UC Davis 17-14
  • 2019Weber State 36-20

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Weber State’s chances here.

50-50Model 49% · Line 45%UC DavisWeber State

UC Davis favored by 1.5 · Total 67.5

How games like this usually go

UC Davis by 1.5, on the usual path until Q1 11:17

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 304 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward UC Davis.

opened −1.5now +1.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 68.5now 67.5

Spread: −1.5 → +1.5 · Total: 68.5 → 67.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Weber State is worth +5.3 points (±8.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 69th percentile.

40% at home, 15% on the road against FBS opponents (2-3 home, 2-11 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.8 at home vs. away over 59 games — inside the ±7.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

4,762 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 552 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.