UC Davis at SMU
Fan take
UC Davis fans
How they got here
Last two games
UC Davis · 2-0
Picked #117 in the preseason · now #127.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 49–17 @ San Diego #139 of 669
won by 32 as a 14.5-point favorite
W 31–24 @ Portland State #211 of 669
won by 7 as a 25.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
SMU · 9-4
Picked #16 in the preseason · now #21 — about right.
2-1 in its last three, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.
W 24–19 vs ArizonaTop 25 #36 of 668
won by 5 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 35–38 @ California #94 of 668
lost by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 38–6 vs LouisvilleTop 25 #42 of 668
won by 32 as a 4-point favorite
W 45–13 @ Boston College #127 of 668
won by 32 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 26–20 vs MiamiTop 25 #9 of 668
won by 6 as a 8.5-point underdog
L 12–13 @ Wake Forest #55 of 668
lost by 1 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 35–24 @ ClemsonTop 25 #16 of 668
won by 11 as a 5.5-point underdog
W 34–10 vs Stanford #107 of 668
won by 24 as a 19.5-point favorite
W 31–18 vs Syracuse #91 of 668
won by 13 as a 17.5-point favorite
L 24–35 @ TCUTop 25 #35 of 668
lost by 11 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 28–10 @ Missouri State #126 of 668
won by 18 as a 28.5-point favorite
L 45–48 vs Baylor #15 of 668
lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 42–13 vs East Texas A&M #130 of 668
won by 29 as a 50.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
UC Davis
- UC Davis needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility — 33% to get there with a win here, 0% with a loss.
- UC Davis is still shaking off a 46-point loss.
SMU
- SMU is ranked #17, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- SMU is coming off a 46-point win.
The series
SMU leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2026 · SMU won the last meeting
- 2026SMU 56–10
Best players
SMU
- Kevin Jennings (QB) · 767 passing yards — Heisman odds: 18th (+4000)
- Yannick Smith (WR) · 151 receiving yards
- Jimmy Wyrick (S) · 11 tackles
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on SMU’s chances here.
Home −32.5 · O/U 59.5
Conditions
99°F · 6 mph wind · Clear
SMU is worth +5.5 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 73rd percentile.
78% at home, 59% on the road against FBS opponents (31–9 home, 30–21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.0 at home vs. away over 76 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,451 miles to get here.
UC Davis 10 – SMU 56
Called it — picked SMU to win.
Recent games
SMU
- Wk 1Wat Florida State27-24
UC Davis
- Wk 1Wat Portland State31-24
- Wk 1Wat San Diego49-17
Trajectory
SMU won 56-10, as picked pregame.