Miami13-3CFP #103With Jackson Cantwell (OT, #4 nationally) arriving, Cristobal's top-9 class faces extreme rebuild — 9 NFL exits and 6% QB production returning as Miami redefines its legacy amid near-total roster turnover.
Miami was one game — at home, in the title game — from bringing The U all the way back, and lost it to Indiana by six. Twenty-five years of waiting, and the album still isn't the one.
Fans here believe the take that 'The U' is nostalgia — that the swagger died with the 80s and 90s and Miami has coasted on old highlights for twenty years. The 2025 run was the program's argument that…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Stanford · Sat Sep 5 · 01:00 UTC
Miami is the program that invented swagger and is still deciding what it owes that legacy.
With a #10 recruiting class and significant transfer activity, Miami faces challenges from heavy NFL draft losses and a net portal exporter status. The team's success will depend on integrating new talent and addressing key position needs.
The hurricane builds offshore. Quiet doesn't mean nothing's coming.
the open questiondoes the recruiting haul translate on the field?
Hayden Lowe (EDGE, #75 nationally) arrives at Miami with just 6% QB production returning and nine NFL exits — Cristobal's fourth top-13 class in four years faces the most extreme rebuild yet.
Miami has reached elite-tier consistency — Cristobal's fourth season demands whether the Hurricanes can sustain top-10% FBS power with their current talent class.
With Jackson Cantwell (OT, #4 nationally) arriving, Cristobal's top-9 class faces extreme rebuild — 9 NFL exits and 6% QB production returning as Miami redefines its legacy amid near-total roster turnover.
Mario Cristobal enters his fourth season with a 13-3 winning record, as Miami's swagger-driven identity faces the challenge of sustaining its AP top-10 momentum.
C.J. Daniels is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
C.J. Daniels produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
Keelan Marion produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
Mark Fletcher Jr. does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps -- the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
CharMar Brown: a closer signal screened this season.
Girard Pringle Jr.: a closer signal screened this season.
Girard Pringle Jr. sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
Malachi Toney does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
Mark Fletcher Jr.: a short yardage signal screened this season.
Mario Cristobal's fifth season at Miami begins with a 13-3 record and a #15 talent rank, but fan optimism outpaces the market's skepticism about sustaining swagger and elite performance.
Miami enters 2026 — bottom-quintile returning production contrasts with a 13-3 record and No. 9 SP+ rating, forcing Mario Cristobal to reconcile legacy and reality in a program that invented swagger.
Five-star OT Jackson Cantwell commits 2026
OT room lost four — including Kinsler — and still has a starter-risk flag hanging over it; Cantwell doesn't just headline the 2026 class, he walks into a genuine depth emergency on Cristobal's blindside.
Miami extends Cristobal's contract
Nine players drafted, CB still a pressure point, and a coordinator overhaul already in motion — locking Cristobal in now is Miami telling the portal market this rebuild has a permanent address.
Miami TE Luka Gilbert out all season
Gilbert out all season is a real problem — Miami's TE room was already thin behind him, and nine drafted starters means Cristobal can't afford depth gaps at a second skill position while the CB pressure hasn't fully resolved.
A'mir Sears commits to Miami
Nine players drafted and CB pressure still circling — Sears lands in Coral Gables as the preseason ACC favorite needs the back-end depth to match the five-star noise up front.
Top 3 commits
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
73rd percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Miami · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Miami signed a top-13 recruiting class. It is the No. 1 recruiting class in the ACC. A class ranked in the teens won the trail competition. The depth-chart work starts now. The bulls are loud — the coverage treats this class as a program-level statement.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: the class is real, the program is a destination again.
The 'rankings don't tell the whole story' counter -- development gaps, position holes still open.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 124 of 941 board posts (13%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (308 posts): 19% positive · 53% neutral · 28% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Miami has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 13% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 24% a year ago. It is a 22-14 record over the last three regular seasons. A real, measurable rise in the model. The room has caught up; now the schedule has to agree.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Opens Sep 5
vs Stanford · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
FL leads the 2026 class with 14 commits. National footprint reaching 12 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
106 signees across 21 states, 2023-2026. FL leads the pull.
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Wire to wire — all 66 AP voters have them at #2, final AP ballot (2025).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
15 games with TV coverage: 5 national broadcast, 9 ESPN, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 4 noon, 3 afternoon, 8 primetime
62% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~49% league baseline.
8 of 13 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
21% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
12 interceptions of 57 disrupted passes (45 deflected, 12 intercepted), 2025 only.
112 penalties committed, 72 drawn on opponents — ceding 312 yards of field position.
916 penalty yards committed vs. 604 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 12 corners
The split, staged
How Miami fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Easy, the MAC stadiums except Sac St and UMass. FIFA needs to be melded with Maction
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 12 corners of the fanbase
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readMiami fans are leaning negative, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
✓ counted We read 308 posts from Miami fans this week.
Fan mood across the 2025 season, both sides — our read
Shaded weeks show whose fanbase read warmer, our measure of what fans actually said, not a poll.
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
Mario is a hell of a recruiter. He's getting 4 & 5 Star QB's after going to the portal 3 years in a row! These kids could go and possibly start at big schools yet they choose to come to Miami to learn.
This class is so talented. Full of blue chippers. I have a feeling that multiple 3 star guys in the class have the potential to rise to blue chip status by the end of their Senior season as well. Miami staff seems to be totally killing it with their player evaluations.
Based on 6 comments from 5 posters across 6 threads · Jul 1, 2026–Jul 14, 2026 · via Locked On Canes
You always overlook Miami. They have both returning starters. One who was a freshman All American 2 years ago. Then you have on the 2 deep guys that played significant snaps. You're always sleeping on the hurricanes. Not even an honorable mention. Downright criminal!!! Then you have a safety who lead college football in interceptions from his position!!!! Need better researchers. Easily a top 15 secondary by the numbers. Wake up sir!!!!
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jun 18, 2026 · via ESPN College Football
On3 Predicts Miami QB Darian Mensah To Win Heisman Trophy The hype surrounding Miami Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah continues to grow as On3 analyst J.D. Pickell predicted Mensah to win the Heisman Trophy. It really doesn't come to a surprise that Mensah is being named as a Heisman favorite. If you look at his numbers, it shows why. This past season, Mensah was one of the best signal-callers in the college football landscape. He won the ACC Championship as a sophomore quarterback, who threw for 3,973 yards and 36 touchdowns while only... Read more
Based on 2 comments across 1 thread · Aug 1, 2026 · via Eye In The Sky
Every. Single. One. 🔒 Just a testament to how hard this staff works and the brotherhood this 2027 class has 🙌
Based on 1 comment across 1 thread · Jun 11, 2026 · via MiamiHurricanes
Miami has gotten the last two portal quarterbacks at the 11th hour. Miami cannot continue to play that game every year, eventually it'll come back and bite us.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 8, 2026 · via Locked On Canes
Miami believes it's back, and Cristobal is determined to bring a championship back to Coral Gables.
Based on 1 comment across 1 thread · Jun 11, 2026 · via MiamiHurricanes
“Mario Ball makes ACC games hard but its a fucking magic bullet in the CFB Playoffs.”— r/CFB
“It feels so good to actually have a competent defense after that Swiss cheese we put out there last year”— r/CFB
“Seasonal hurricane affective disorder is common for Floridians. I’ve had it for 24 years.”— r/CFB
“so so thankful miami got to sit out the start of the yearly cannibalization of the conference”— r/CFB
“That was an absolute disgrace and the largest question of integrity in the sport I have ever seen while watching a game. And I am not a fan of either team, but a f@#king joke. I have never witnessed a fix quite like this. SEC integrity, just wow, they follow their leader, not …”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
“I don’t like the FSU kicker it’s bad karma”
Fanbase Health Index · Miami · high confidence
“Miami hurricanes 16-0 national championship”
Courtesy of Miami Athletics: The Hurricanes were back in action on the Greentree Practice fields for their second day of preseason
The defense absolutely stole the show on Day 2 of Miami Hurricanes fall camp. 🔥 O.J. Frederique Jr. 🔥 Xavier Lucas 🔥 Cortez Redding 🔥 Jaelen Waters
How is ohio state , it's ranked when run miami hurricanes beat him.
Hurricanes returned to Greentree to kick off... Read more
This morning, Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal spoke on 560 WQAM radio, where he stated that former
Hurricanes are ranked as the nation’s No. 7 team in the land. The Miami Hurricanes will enter
We are one day away from the Miami Hurricanes starting fall practices, getting ready for the 2026-27 college football season.
Hurricanes continue to chase a national championship. The timing makes plenty of sense. Cristobal
Wasn’t Mali already preseason ACC offensive POY?
Poor texas State is doing it's best 2024 Miami defense impression
Miami QB cam Ward Midseason Highlights | 2024 ACC Football
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.33 EPA/play | 11 | 16 | 338 / 468 | 72.2 | 3813 #4 FBS | 8.1 | 30 #6 FBS | 12 | 156.7 | 79.0 | 7.8 | 3.3 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt9.2 89th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %75.5% 98th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Carson Beck's full player page | |||||||||||||
| 8 | 4 | 13 / 19 | 68.4 | 156 | 8.2 | 0 | 0 | 137.4 | 73.4 | — | — | ||
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.20 EPA/play | 4 | 14 | 216 | 1192 #18 FBS | 5.5 | 12 #30 FBS | 57 | 12 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 16.3 | 5.0% (22/439) | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight225 lb 90th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share7.3% bottom 25th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 76th percentile among FBS RBs to the 97th | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.16 EPA/play | 6 | 15 | 122 | 460 | 3.8 | 7 | 13 | 13.9 | 6.6 | 15.1 | 6.7 | 4.1% (18/439) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.7 bottom 10th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate5.7% 71th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View CharMar Brown's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.20 EPA/play | 22 | 9 | 62 | 375 | 6.0 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 14.8 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.3 75th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share6.1% bottom 20th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Girard Pringle Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||||
| 25 | 6 | 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 6.4 | — | — | — | ||
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| -0.18 EPA/play | 2 | 6 | 35 | 108 | 3.1 | 1 | 17 | 4.6 | 5.6 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.46 EPA/play | 10 | 16 | 109 | 1211 #5 FBS | 11.1 | 10 #12 FBS | 61 | 16.8 | 19.6 | 28.9% (127/439) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. National watch / fringe All-American — on the edge of a 1st-team nod. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume109 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)60.8 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Malachi Toney's full player page | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.65 EPA/play | — | 16 | 57 | 746 | 13.1 | 2 | 61 | 13 | 13.1 | 17.8% (78/439) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume57 89th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate3.5% bottom 20th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 43rd percentile to the 85th among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.76 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 50 | 557 | 11.1 | 7 #38 FBS | 47 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 14.6% (64/439) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball TargetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate14.0% 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 83th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View C.J. Daniels's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.25 EPA/play | 9 | 13 | 23 | 218 | 9.5 | 3 | 29 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 5.9% (26/439) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.0 bottom 27th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.3 bottom 20th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Elija Lofton's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.89 EPA/play | 3 | 10 | 17 | 210 | 12.4 | 2 | 39 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 4.6% (20/439) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.6 64th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Joshua Moore's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.55 EPA/play | 1 | 7 | 13 | 178 | 13.7 | 1 | 44 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 4.1% (18/439) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.0 51th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume13 bottom 12th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Joshisa Trader's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.19 EPA/play | 87 | 10 | 18 | 166 | 9.2 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 5.6 | 5.5% (24/439) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior View Alex Bauman's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.32 EPA/play | 17 | 4 | 7 | 162 | 23.1 | 0 | 51 | 6.3 | 2.2 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +2.64 EPA/play | 13 | 5 | 7 | 105 | 15 | 0 | 41 | 4.3 | 6.5 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 3 | 15 | 63 | 38 | 17.5 #5 FBS | 12.5 #3 FBS | 6 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.8% 92th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 90th to 100th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 4 | 15 | 54 | 30 | 15.5 #15 FBS | 9.5 #15 FBS | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Consensus All-American — 1st team on at least three of the five NCAA selectors. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.7% 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 94th percentile among FBS IDLs, fell to 21st, now back up to 100th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 13 | 31 | 20 | 9 | 4.5 | 4 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate29.0% 94th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 56th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 87th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 11 | 11 | 28 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 92nd to 47th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 5 | 12 | 26 | 15 | 6.5 | 1 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 5th to 59th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 12 | 12 | 25 | 16 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 6 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.0% 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Marquise Lightfoot's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 18 | 13 | 17 | 7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 6 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate14.7% 50th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Armondo Blount's full player page | |||||||
| 90 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 33 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 1 | 16 | 84 | 38 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.1% 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume84 88th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 31 | 16 | 71 | 39 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume71 76th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Wesley Bissainthe's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 16 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 16 of 21 games this season · junior · 4-star, 2023 class View Raul Aguirre Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 41 | 13 | 31 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.5% 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chase Smith's full player page | |||||||||
| 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 30 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 8 | 15 | 75 | 6 | 5 #6 FBS | 4 | 3.5 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.0% bottom 50th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 70th percentile among FBS Ss, fell to 21st, now back up to 100th | |||||||
| Box Safety | 7 | 16 | 68 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume68 89th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 94th percentile among FBS Ss to the 60th | |||||||
| Rover | — | 14 | 64 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 5 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.8% bottom 49th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 21st percentile among FBS Ss, fell to 0th, now back up to 99th | |||||||
| Rover | 6 | 14 | 45 | 8 #45 FBS | 1 | 2 | 1 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate17.8% 91th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 33rd percentile to the 84th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 12 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 3.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate17.9% 91th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 98th percentile among FBS Ss to the 30th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 11 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Damari Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 29 | 10 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate36.8% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View OJ Frederique Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 13 | 11 | 16 | 2 | 6 #2 FBS | 1 | 1 |
Centerfielder· Takeaway threatSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.5% 73th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Bryce Fitzgerald's full player page | |||||||
| 23 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 28 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 16 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 38 | 16 | 17/24 | 70.8 | 52/52 | 103 | 53 |
| 45 | 6 | 1/1 | 100 | 8/8 | 11 | 31 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 94 | 15 | 54 | 2398 | 44.4 | 73 | 23 | 6 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.65 EPA/play | — | 16 | 12 | 293 | 24.4 | 0 | 38 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.46 EPA/play | 10 | 16 | 23 | 298 | 13 | 0 | 55 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+23 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 31 | #14 | #2 | +3 | Notre DameTop 10 win | W 27–24 125 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #6 | #208 | -54.5 | Bethune-Cookman | W 45–3 117 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #9 | #13 | -17.5 | South FloridaTop 25 win | W 49–12 136 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #9 | #14 | -8.5 | Florida | W 26–7 126 | 4-0 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #7 | #62 | -3.5 | @Florida StateTop 25 win | W 28–22 142 | 5-0 | 1-0 |
| 8 | Oct 17 | #7 | #27 | -10.5 | Louisville | L 21–24 127 | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #8 | #101 | -30 | Stanford | W 42–7 127 | 6-1 | 2-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #8 | #19 | -8.5 | @SMU | L 20–26 148 | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #9 | #133 | -28.5 | Syracuse | W 38–10 128 | 7-2 | 3-2 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #10 | #34 | -16.5 | NC State | W 41–7 120 | 8-2 | 4-2 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #7 | #82 | -17.5 | @Virginia Tech | W 34–17 124 | 9-2 | 5-2 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #9 | #32 | -6.5 | @PittsburghTop 25 win | W 38–7 125 | 10-2 | 6-2 |
| College Football Playoff | ||||||||
| 17 | Dec 20 | #7 | #15 | +3 | @Texas A&M | W 10–3 | 11-2 | 6-2 |
| 18 | Jan 1 | #7 | #1 | +8 | Ohio State (N) | W 24–14 | 12-2 | 6-2 |
| 19 | Jan 9 | #5 | #7 | -3 | Ole Miss (N) | W 31–27 | 13-2 | 6-2 |
| 21 | Jan 20 | #5 | #1 | +7 | Indiana (N) | L 21–27 | 13-3 | 6-2 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20 | Indiana | L 21–27 | — | — | — | +0.165 | 43.6% | 120.7% | One-score loss |
| Jan 9 | Ole Miss | W 31–27 | — | — | — | +0.208 | 42.2% | 135.8% | One-score win |
| Jan 1 | Ohio State | W 24–14 | — | — | — | +0.063 | 41.5% | 100.3% | |
| Dec 20 | @Texas A&M | W 10–3 | — | — | — | -0.058 | 30.0% | 121.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 29 | @Pittsburgh | W 38–7 | 416 | 1 | 35:55 | +0.252 | 58.3% | 99.9% | Blowout win |
| Nov 22 | @Virginia Tech | W 34–17 | 418 | 0 | 33:29 | +0.376 | 44.6% | 126.7% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 15 | NC State | W 41–7 | 581 | 1 | 36:43 | +0.415 | 52.1% | 132.0% | Blowout win |
| Nov 8 | Syracuse | W 38–10 | 385 | 0 | 30:23 | +0.206 | 38.3% | 138.3% | Blowout win |
| Nov 1 | @SMU | L 20–26 | 433 | 2 | 37:42 | +0.018 | 43.2% | 107.0% | One-score loss |
| Oct 25 | Stanford | W 42–7 | 404 | 0 | 36:42 | +0.267 | 55.4% | 98.3% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | Louisville | L 21–24 | 334 | 4 | 28:44 | +0.146 | 38.6% | 129.2% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | @Florida State | W 28–22 | 338 | 0 | 30:26 | +0.184 | 42.4% | 111.0% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | Florida | W 26–7 | 349 | 1 | 36:30 | +0.121 | 46.1% | 96.8% | |
| Sep 13 | South Florida | W 49–12 | 576 | 2 | 36:01 | +0.503 | 49.2% | 156.1% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Bethune-Cookman | W 45–3 | 543 | 0 | 28:05 | +0.482 | 66.7% | 109.4% | Best success rate |
| Aug 31 | Notre Dame | W 27–24 | 332 | 0 | 33:57 | +0.164 | 50.0% | 88.6% | One-score win |
| Season average (16 games) | 426 | 0.9 | +0.219 | 46.4% | 116.9% | ||||
Miami fields a strong methodical, ball-control offense behind an elite defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
76th percentile quality, 5th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 79th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 61st — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
80th percentile success on standard downs, 64th on passing downs — a 16-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 69th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 87th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.22; 92nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.08. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.38 raw vs. 0.07 adjusted.
Miami reads strongest in epa allowed (top 7%) and success rate allowed (top 9%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Miami sits at the 9th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Miami
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Miami · 2018-present
73% home win rate vs 57% on the road. margin runs +9.0 better at home. Hard Rock Stadium seats 64,767, averaging 88% full (56,971 attendance, 27 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown split the carries (212/334 vs 122/334) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Mark Fletcher Jr. produces in bigger chunks.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Malachi Toney (WR) and Elija Lofton (TE) split the targets (124/150 vs 26/150) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 13 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Miami’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.0% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 274-play sample) — mid-pack, 50 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Historical echo
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
81°F average kickoff temp; 27% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 79 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Miami's 2014–2025 record is 96-58. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
Week-by-week rivalry heat isn't tracked yet for this matchup — check back as the 2026-27 season approaches and real fan-intel signal accumulates.
Who's more worked up right now
Cross-fanbase rivalry sentiment for this matchup hasn't been measured yet this week — both sides show as neutral until real signal comes in.
THE LAST 5 · year-by-year
All-Time Record
since 1927 · 95 seasons · .628 win rate
Miami reached its first national-championship game since 2001 — at home, at Hard Rock Stadium — and lost 27-21 to Indiana when an interception at the Hoosiers' 6-yard line with 44 seconds left ended it. Twenty-five years of waiting, and the album was six points and two possessions from being finished.
Five national titles between 1983 and 2001. Jimmy Johnson built the brash dynasty that changed how the sport thought about itself. Schnellenberger lit the fuse. The U at its peak was the most swaggering, most imitated, most resented program in the country — the team that made attitude part of the game's vocabulary, that played in the Orange Bowl with a conviction that losing was something that happened to other people. The legacy is real and the 2001 team was one of the most talented rosters ever assembled. Then the program didn't win another title for 24 years.
Mario Cristobal, a native son, arrived to build it back. The 2025 season went 13-3 and produced the first national-championship appearance since the last one — at the program's own stadium, which should have been the setup for the final chapter of the restoration. Instead, Indiana's defense held, the Hurricanes' drive stalled at the 6 with 44 seconds left on an interception, and the score read 27-21 Hoosiers. The loss sits differently than the losses of the dormant years. Those felt like absence. This one felt like proof that The U is genuinely back — and like a specific, named cruelty. Cristobal called 2026 'unfinished business' before the offseason started.
The 2026 season is both the obvious answer and the harder test. Miami is the ACC favorite entering the year, according to at least one anonymous ACC coach. The roster is real, the pipeline is real, the coaching continuity is real. The question is whether a fanbase that has been insisting the next album is the one can convert proximity into closure — and whether the program that came within 44 seconds of the title has the muscle memory to finish it the next time.
Speed, South Florida talent, and a rebuilt program operating under a native-son coach who came back specifically to restore the swagger. Cristobal runs a power-gap offense with a physical line — the kind of football that wears defenses down before the skill talent finishes them. The portal strategy targets proven ACC and SEC contributors. The defense has developed NFL-caliber secondary talent from the South Florida pipeline. The turnover chain isn't just a prop; it's a belief system the program has built its culture around.
Miami 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.07 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 4.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 13-3 · CFP #10 / AP #10
Miami: Top 15 nationally. NY6-bowl conversation.
ACC Standing · 2025
Miami sits 4th of 17 in the ACC at 6-2. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 7-2 |
| 2 | Virginia | 7-3 |
| 3 | Georgia Tech | 6-2 |
| 4 | Miami | 6-2 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 6-2 |
| 6 | SMU | 6-2 |
| 7 | NC State | 5-4 |
| 8 | California | 4-4 |
| 9 | Clemson | 4-4 |
| 10 | Louisville | 4-4 |
| 11 | Wake Forest | 4-4 |
| 12 | Stanford | 3-5 |
| 13 | Florida State | 2-6 |
| 14 | North Carolina | 2-6 |
| 15 | Virginia Tech | 2-6 |
| 16 | Boston College | 1-7 |
| 17 | Syracuse | 1-7 |
Coaching Era · Miami
Mario Cristobal has held the program for 5 seasons — the era is established.
Things this fanbase does every Saturday — none of them invented in the last decade.
since 2017
Cuban-link 10-pound chain (now multiple variants) draped around the player who forced the turnover at the bench. Manny Diaz's invention; modern CFB's most-imitated locker-room prop. The 2017 season made it iconic; rivals tried 'turnover backpacks' and 'turnover thrones' in response. None of them mattered.
since 1956
Smoke billows from the tunnel as the team takes the field. Replicated by 50+ programs since. The Miami original is intentionally aggressive — accompanied by 'Welcome to Miami' (Will Smith) since the 1990s. The smoke is the headline; the song is the tax.
since 1980s
Mascot Sebastian the Ibis (himself a uniquely Miami choice — the campus bird is the ibis, last to leave a hurricane and first to return) does the 'Catfish' celebration dance. Half the program's identity is in how unserious it can be while being lethal on the field.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1989
Three national titles in seven seasons under three different coaches — 1983, 1987, 1989. The program won no matter who was in charge
1991
The Miami-FSU field-goal heartbreaks that defined the era's fiercest rivalry
One of the most talented teams ever caps The U's last championship
27-21 to Indiana at home — one game short of the restoration
Heartbreak
Moment of the Year · Miami · 2025
Week 18 of 2025. Beat a top-3 opponent on the road.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — loss 27-21 (away). Last 5 postseason: 3-2.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–202624 picks last 5 cycles. 4 first-round picks. Recruits with NFL ambitions notice.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Miami · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Miami · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Miami
Season Standing · 2025 · 13-3 · CFP #10 / AP #10
Coaching Era · Miami
Moment of the Year · Miami · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline