Louisville9-4CFP #203Jeff Brohm, in his third season at Louisville, inherits a 9-4 winning record and a program that seeks to outlast its Lamar Jackson legacy with rising market confidence.
Louisville is the program that produced a Heisman and now, under a hometown coach, wins nine games a year while it tries to turn three straight strong seasons into a breakthrough it can't quite reach.
Brohm himself said it out loud — an unbeaten stretch and three straight strong years, and Louisville still couldn't crack the rankings. Fans hear the same message every fall: prove it against somebody…
Approaching
31 days
until kickoff · at Ole Miss · Sun Sep 6 · 23:30 UTC
Louisville is the program that watched Lamar Jackson win a Heisman and then watched the program rebuild around being more than Lamar Jackson.
With a moderate continuity rate and a strong transfer-in class, Louisville is positioned for a competitive season. The team's development class and net portal exporter status suggest a balanced approach to reloading.
Louie the Cardinal is in the nest.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Louisville enters 2025 at No. 25 in SP+ after a 9-4 season under Jeff Brohm, proving the program's identity extends beyond Lamar Jackson's Heisman era.
Louisville has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-15% tier since 2023, and Jeff Brohm's third season raises the question of whether the 25-12 three-year run.
Jeff Brohm enters his fourth season at Louisville with a 9-4 record, but the program's identity remains tied to Lamar Jackson's legacy, creating tension as the fanbase remains uneasy.
Jeff Brohm's No. 1 ACC portal class arrives as Louisville's 9-4 season fades, with Lincoln Kienholz (QB) anchoring a rebuild that must prove the program is more than its Heisman legacy.
Jeff Brohm's third consecutive top-25 portal class arrives as Louisville's 9-4 season fades, with Lincoln Kienholz (QB) anchoring a rebuild that must prove the program is more than its Heisman legacy.
Jeff Brohm, in his third season at Louisville, inherits a 9-4 winning record and a program that seeks to outlast its Lamar Jackson legacy with rising market confidence.
Chris Bell is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Keyjuan Brown: a closer signal screened this season.
2027 CB Allen Evans IV flips from Louisville
Brohm's top-13 portal haul built the CB room back up — losing a 2027 flip before he ever enrolls stings the depth pipeline right when the class rank is already slipping toward 68th.
Win total: 7.5 → 8.5 (▲1)
Win total jumped from 7.5 to 8.5 with conference peers flat — the books see something program-specific.
K Garth White transfer commits from Rhode Island
K room burned through two portal adds and still lost Ranvier — White arriving from Rhode Island fills the vacancy with FCS reps that carry real production, not just a warm body on a top-19 class roster.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
50th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Louisville · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Louisville enters 2025 rated No. 25 in SP+ (+12.4). A top-25 rating means the tape backed the ranking over three seasons. Now the schedule tests whether it still does. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 26 of 167 board posts (16%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (101 posts): 22% positive · 49% neutral · 29% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Louisville has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 22% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 18%. It is a 25-12 record over the last three regular seasons. Three-year power readings show a slip — the room is split on whether this is a dip or a trend.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Opens Sep 6
vs Ole Miss · neutral site
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
FL leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 8 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
75 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. FL leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
2 of 66 AP voters have them ranked, final AP ballot (2025) — from #21, Greg Madia (The Daily Progress), to #24, Nicole Auerbach (NBC Sports). 64 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
13 games with TV coverage: 8 ESPN, 4 conference network, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 4 noon, 4 afternoon, 5 primetime
36% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~51% league baseline.
4 of 11 own fumbles recovered themselves; 5 of 8 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
26% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — running hot vs. the ~19% league average.
14 interceptions of 53 disrupted passes (39 deflected, 14 intercepted), 2025 only.
90 penalties committed, 96 drawn on opponents — ceding 59 yards of field position.
821 penalty yards committed vs. 762 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 7 corners
One voice
How Louisville fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readLouisville fans are leaning negative, but it's more feel than fact right now.
✓ counted We read 101 posts from Louisville fans this week.
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
I’m imagining an all-time Louisville team with Lamar at QB and Isaac at RB. Would be the most unstoppable running backfield of all time.
We have the best running backs in the country I don’t care what anyone says. K Brown is our 3rd string running back.
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Aug 30, 2025–Nov 15, 2025 · via CFB
Annual Jeff Brohm fuck you game. Can’t continue to put the ball in Moss’s hands on critical downs short yardages.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Oct 4, 2025 · via CFB
How are you a p4 team with a kicker who cant even make 40 yarders? This isnt the 90s anymore that just not a college level kicker anymore
Its 2025 your kicker cant kick a 50 yarder so much so that youd rather go for 4th and 10? Wild work
Based on 2 comments from 1 poster across 2 threads · Oct 4, 2025 · via CFB
I know that is against FCS competition But good lord I love Clev Lubin’s motor already Both his sacks he’s been one move and motor to the QB
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 30, 2025 · via CFB
“As a Louisville fan I still can’t thank you all enough for taking that loser from us 😂”— r/CFB
“I think it's because the 7-1 team only plays in the second half. Dunno who those guys are that start the game.”— r/CFB
“I think I would’ve gone for it on that 4th and short in overtime. Trusting our defense there didn’t feel ideal.”— r/CFB
“All hail to thee our U of L As we stand up for her fame. All hail to thee our U of L As we fight to win this game. Sing praises for a victory, We wish our heroes well. All hail the Cardinal Spirit. All hail our U of L! All Hail ALL HAIL ALL HAAIIIIIIIIIIIIL GO CARDS!”— r/CFB
“For those who didn't watch, Louisville was missing their RB1-3 and WR1. WR2 was limited. A freshman walk on RB and a converted WR dropped over 100 yds rushing each on them.”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Louisville · high confidence
“That's the Brohm offense I've been waiting for all year”
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.16 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 244 / 380 | 64.2 | 2679 #54 FBS | 7.0 | 16 #63 FBS | 7 | 133.6 | 64.0 | 6.4 | 4.8 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.7 bottom 50th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry-1.2 bottom 10th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Miller Moss's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.01 EPA/play | 13 | 6 | 15 / 21 | 71.4 | 112 | 5.3 | 0 | 0 | 116.2 | 42.8 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| -0.23 EPA/play | 12 | 2 | 8 / 12 | 66.7 | 75 | 6.2 | 1 | 2 | 113.3 | 21.1 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.20 EPA/play | 1 | 9 | 101 | 884 #64 FBS | 8.8 | 7 | 78 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 20.8 | 21.9 | 4.2% (15/356) | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry9.3 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception3.7 bottom 12th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readthe ball security is the one real worry — 2.63 fumbles per 100 touches (top-decile concern) | |||||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.31 EPA/play | 22 | 10 | 96 | 704 | 7.3 | 6 | 67 | 13.4 | 8.5 | 19.6 | 21.7 | — | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry8.3 97th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate6.2% 77th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 34th percentile to the 89th among FBS RBs | |||||||||||||
| +0.03 EPA/play | 46 | 5 | 37 | 200 | 5.4 | 1 | 22 | 10.9 | 10.5 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.10 EPA/play | 26 | 7 | 49 | 158 | 3.2 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 7.0 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.2 bottom 13th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.0% bottom 20th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 83rd percentile among FBS RBs to the 8th | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.60 EPA/play | — | 11 | 72 | 917 #38 FBS | 12.7 | 6 #62 FBS | 64 | 16.2 | 17.5 | 30.3% (108/356) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.5 50th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume72 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 51st to 78th to 95th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.19 EPA/play | 5 | 13 | 60 | 635 | 10.6 | 2 | 48 | 13.9 | 14.4 | 22.8% (81/356) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Return threatRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. a house-call threat every time he fields it All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume60 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 13th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caullin Lacy's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.50 EPA/play | 3 | 6 | 13 | 219 | 16.8 | 1 | 36 | 5.2 | 10.4 | 5.9% (21/356) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception21.1 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume13 bottom 12th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dacari Collins's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.45 EPA/play | 88 | 10 | 21 | 204 | 9.7 | 2 | 33 | 5 | 3.6 | 5.6% (20/356) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.6 bottom 31th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.4 bottom 41th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaleel Skinner's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.62 EPA/play | 15 | 9 | 17 | 189 | 11.1 | 1 | 23 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 5.9% (21/356) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior View Antonio Meeks's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.41 EPA/play | 85 | 10 | 20 | 157 | 7.8 | 2 | 37 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 7.0% (25/356) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class View Nate Kurisky's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.37 EPA/play | 2 | 9 | 15 | 122 | 8.1 | 1 | 17 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 5.6% (20/356) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · junior View Treyshun Hurry's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.56 EPA/play | 14 | 6 | 8 | 109 | 13.6 | 1 | 33 | 9.8 | 6.3 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 50 | 13 | 59 | 35 | 13 #42 FBS | 8 #27 FBS | 7 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.0% 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 23 | 12 | 39 | 17 | 7 | 6 #74 FBS | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.9% 63th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Wesley Bailey's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 17 | 12 | 31 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate19.4% 69th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Adonijah Green's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 11 | 29 | 13 | 5 | 1.5 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 32nd to 64th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 99 | 11 | 27 | 15 | 4.5 | 2 | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 58th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 61st percentile among FBS IDLs, fell to 5th, now back up to 71st | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 45 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.5% bottom 41th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Denzel Lowry's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior View Jerry Lawson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 19 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate8.3% bottom 25th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Justin Beadles's full player page | |||||||
| 92 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 97 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 40 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 34 | 13 | 95 | 45 | 50 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume95 94th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate4.2% 72th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 95th percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 58th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 12 | 13 | 55 | 29 | 26 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 14th to 48th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 13 | 46 | 23 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 4-star, 2023 class our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 8th percentile among FBS LBs to the 44th | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 9 | 10 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 7 | 2.5 | 3 | 3 #56 FBS |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.1% 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate16.7% 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 44th percentile to the 90th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 5 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 5 of 21 games this season · junior · 4-star, 2023 class our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 74th percentile to the 6th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 21 | 13 | 84 | 5 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume84 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 38th percentile among FBS Ss to the 82nd | |||||||
| Box Safety | 27 | 12 | 64 | 4 | 1 | 2.5 | 1 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume64 85th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View JoJo Evans's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 12 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior View Corey Gordon's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 25 | 12 | 42 | 4 | 2 | 3.5 | 0.5 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 4th to 42nd to 68th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 13 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 89th to 44th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| 7 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 29 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 36 | 13 | 21/25 | 84 | 39/41 | 102 | 51 |
| 98 | 5 | 2/4 | 50 | 1/2 | 7 | 57 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 6 | 14 | 555 | 39.6 | 61 | 6 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.19 EPA/play | 5 | 13 | 12 | 251 | 20.9 | 0 | 40 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.19 EPA/play | 5 | 13 | 25 | 454 | 18.2 | 2 | 93 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+19 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #30 | #165 | -38 | Eastern Kentucky | W 51–17 120 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 5 | #36 | #54 | -15.5 | James Madison | W 28–14 131 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #32 | #116 | -25.5 | Bowling Green | W 40–17 112 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #32 | #49 | -3.5 | @Pittsburgh | W 34–27 139 | 4-0 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #27 | #49 | -6.5 | Virginia | L 27–30 138 | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 17 | #27 | #7 | +10.5 | @MiamiTop 10 win | W 24–21 127 | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #24 | #97 | -25.5 | Boston College | W 38–24 141 | 6-1 | 3-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #31 | #72 | -10.5 | @Virginia Tech | W 28–16 126 | 7-1 | 4-1 |
| 11 | Nov 9 | #26 | #94 | -18 | California | L 26–29 143 | 7-2 | 4-2 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #33 | #18 | -1.5 | Clemson | L 19–20 123 | 7-3 | 4-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #29 | #12 | +4 | @SMU | L 6–38 123 | 7-4 | 4-4 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #42 | #58 | +1.5 | Kentucky | W 41–0 123 | 8-4 | 4-4 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 17 | Dec 23 | #31 | #25 | -11.5 | Toledo (N) | W 27–22 | 9-4 | 4-4 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23 | Toledo | W 27–22 | — | — | — | +0.115 | 47.6% | 116.0% | One-score win |
| Nov 29 | Kentucky | W 41–0 | 440 | 0 | 36:28 | +0.246 | 56.0% | 101.1% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 22 | @SMU | L 6–38 | 228 | 1 | 24:04 | -0.047 | 32.7% | 105.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 15 | Clemson | L 19–20 | 385 | 1 | 29:05 | +0.205 | 45.8% | 107.5% | One-score loss |
| Nov 9 | California | L 26–29 | 351 | 1 | 30:08 | +0.147 | 43.2% | 103.9% | One-score loss |
| Nov 1 | @Virginia Tech | W 28–16 | 371 | 1 | 30:22 | +0.070 | 50.7% | 111.8% | |
| Oct 25 | Boston College | W 38–24 | 504 | 3 | 24:16 | +0.220 | 38.1% | 170.3% | |
| Oct 17 | @Miami | W 24–21 | 367 | 1 | 31:16 | +0.105 | 41.2% | 125.5% | One-score win |
| Oct 4 | Virginia | L 27–30 | 383 | 2 | 32:19 | +0.088 | 45.3% | 101.1% | One-score loss |
| Sep 27 | @Pittsburgh | W 34–27 | 393 | 1 | 39:22 | +0.051 | 40.5% | 131.4% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | Bowling Green | W 40–17 | 439 | 1 | 33:52 | +0.372 | 53.3% | 129.3% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | James Madison | W 28–14 | 264 | 1 | 22:48 | +0.061 | 26.4% | 170.9% | Most explosive |
| Aug 30 | Eastern Kentucky | W 51–17 | 542 | 3 | 30:25 | +0.345 | 59.1% | 126.3% | Best success rate |
| Season average (13 games) | 389 | 1.3 | +0.152 | 44.6% | 123.2% | ||||
Louisville fields a limited offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
48th percentile quality, 64th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 72nd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 66th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
84th percentile success on standard downs, 32nd on passing downs — a 52-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 73rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 48th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.15; 66th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.34 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Louisville reads strongest in passing epa allowed (top 5%) and success rate allowed (top 10%); the crux lives in passing epa, where Louisville sits at the 19th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Louisville
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Louisville · 2018-present
64% home win rate vs 40% on the road. margin runs +15.8 better at home. L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium seats 60,000, averaging 81% full (48,756 attendance, 27 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown split the carries (97/191 vs 94/191) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Isaac Brown produces in bigger chunks.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Chris Bell (WR) and Nate Kurisky (TE) split the targets (102/126 vs 24/126) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 8 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 8 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Louisville’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.2% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 209-play sample) — mid-pack, 33 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
66°F average kickoff temp; 10% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 77 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Louisville's 2014–2025 record is 90-63. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1914 · 81 seasons · .530 win rate
Jeff Brohm went 9-4, 9-4, and 9-4 at Louisville. Three straight strong seasons, three straight years finishing 4-4 in the ACC, no title game, no ranking. The program that produced a Heisman winner keeps winning nine games and keeps asking what nine games actually means.
Louisville is the program that produced Lamar Jackson's 2016 Heisman season — one of the great individual years the sport has seen — and has spent the years since figuring out what that ceiling actually is. Howard Schnellenberger built the modern program and took it to the Fiesta Bowl. Bobby Petrino returned to give it an offense that could score on anyone. Jeff Brohm, a Louisville-born former Cardinals quarterback, came home to stabilize what the swings between those eras kept unsettling. The result is a program that wins nine games reliably and has never quite cracked the wall past it.
The 2025 season was more of the same: 9-4, 4-4 in the ACC, a Boca Raton Bowl win over Toledo behind quarterback Miller Moss, and another year watching Duke claim the conference title. Brohm's three-year record is the most stable stretch the program has had since the Petrino peak. The chip is that stability has started to feel like a ceiling — the fanbase split between gratitude for the floor Brohm has built and frustration that the floor and the ceiling have converged at the same number.
The 2026 season will test whether the steady-nine-win model can finally produce the signature game that changes the narrative. Louisville has the quarterback. It has the recruiting infrastructure. The ACC is not impenetrable. The question 2026 will actually answer: can Brohm turn the program he stabilized into the program that breaks through — or does nine-and-four become the defining sentence instead of the setup for one?
Quarterback-driven, points-oriented offense — from Petrino's vertical passing concepts to the RPO-heavy spread Brohm has installed. Louisville scores and has, across its modern eras, built its identity around the ability to put up points before the defense has to. Miller Moss runs an efficient version of that system. The fanbase is sophisticated enough to watch the offensive line as the leading indicator of which kind of season is coming.
Louisville 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.03 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 4.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4 · CFP #20 / AP #19
Louisville: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
ACC Standing · 2025
Louisville is 10th of 17 in the ACC at 4-4. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 7-2 |
| 2 | Virginia | 7-3 |
| 3 | Georgia Tech | 6-2 |
| 4 | Miami | 6-2 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 6-2 |
| 6 | SMU | 6-2 |
| 7 | NC State | 5-4 |
| 8 | California | 4-4 |
| 9 | Clemson | 4-4 |
| 10 | Louisville | 4-4 |
| 11 | Wake Forest | 4-4 |
| 12 | Stanford | 3-5 |
| 13 | Florida State | 2-6 |
| 14 | North Carolina | 2-6 |
| 15 | Virginia Tech | 2-6 |
| 16 | Boston College | 1-7 |
| 17 | Syracuse | 1-7 |
Coaching Era · Louisville
Jeff Brohm has held the program for 4 seasons — the era is established.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2000s
L1C4 — 'Love One Card Four Life' — is the universal Louisville fan-identity marker. The shortened acronym appears in merchandise, recruiting graphics, social media bios. Replaces 'Go Cards' between alumni in casual conversation.
since 1994
Louisville-Kentucky for the Governor's Cup — the in-state ACC-vs-SEC rivalry that decides bragging rights across the bluegrass. Restored to annual play 1994 after multi-decade hiatus; routinely the most-watched in-state rivalry in TV ratings for Kentucky markets.
since 2024
Lamar Jackson's 2024 statue installation outside the stadium honors the 2016 Heisman winner and most-celebrated player in program history. Recruits walk past it on every campus visit. Statue installation events are season-ticket-holder rituals.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2016
Jackson becomes Louisville's first Heisman winner with one of the great dual-threat seasons ever
2024
Louisville immortalizes its Heisman winner outside the stadium
Moment of the Year · Louisville · 2025
Week 8 of 2025. Beat a top-2 opponent on the road.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — win 27-22 (home). Last 5 postseason: 3-2.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2023–202611 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: co-Mark Ivey / co-Steve Ellis — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Louisville · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Louisville · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Louisville
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4 · CFP #20 / AP #19
Coaching Era · Louisville
Moment of the Year · Louisville · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline