The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jeff Brohm

Followed Scott Satterfield. Jeff Brohm moved Louisville from National Program I to Power Program III in 4 seasons.

The builder
94–56
2014–now · 3 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 10th career season — faster than 7% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #356 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Western Kentucky, 3 seasons
+15.7
Regional Program III → National Program III.
Purdue, 6 seasons
+6.6
Regional Program III → Regional Program I.
Louisville, 4 seasons (active)
+2.4
Power Program III → Power Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%60%Western Kentucky2014–2016▼ 7.3ptPurdue2017–2022▲ 3.1ptLouisville2023–2026▼ 0.8pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Western Kentucky7.3pt#185 of 258 · a typical amount
Purdue11.2pt#103 of 258 · a typical amount
Louisville7.8pt#176 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

7–3 against his rivals. Just 1–4 against P.J. Fleck.

Rivalry record
7–3
70.0% · 3 rivals
One-score games
27–31
46.6% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Buyout owed
$33,633,333 (est.)
bigger than 82% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Indiana3–175%
Kentucky2–167%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. P.J. Fleck1–4
5 meetings, 2017–2021
’17 W · erased a 8-pt deficit’18 L’19 L’20 L’21 L · blew a 3-pt lead
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
1–3 25.0%
Power Program
14–20 41.2%
National Program
24–14 63.2%
Regional Program
38–12 76.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.49
#25 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.04
#122 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

coaching decisionOne fan's take that season

One fan thinks Brohm calls too many running plays in bad situations

Annual Jeff Brohm fuck you game. Can’t continue to put the ball in Moss’s hands on critical downs short yardages.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Oct 4, 2025 · via CFB

Coaching career

2023–now
Louisvillecaretaker
National Program I → Power Program III
Jeff Brohm moved Louisville from National Program I to Power Program III in 4 seasons.

4th-best Louisville tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+13.1 pts
#57 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+17.6 pts
#37 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Scott Satterfield (2019–2022).

Season2023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record10–49–49–40–0
PostseasonL bowlW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#31#58#68#48
Style — pass rate
Pass rate43.450.349.942.5
Coordinators
OCBrian BrohmBrian BrohmBrian BrohmBrian Brohm
DCRon English / Mark HagenRon English / Mark HagenRon English / Mark HagenMark Ivey / Steve Ellis
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense62925573
Defense79618119
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%41.347.548.946.4
Red-zone pass%33.338.639.335.7
4th-down go%opp. territory32.630.216.7
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
117
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
124
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-7
#10 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Clev Lubin On3 modeled · $1,000,000Lincoln Kienholz On3 modeled · $2,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 246 lbs
across 87 of 117 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.9 lbs
#96 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#66 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: FL (13), GA (11), KY (10), IN (8), TX (4)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
61.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
59.2
position-weighted
Net
+1.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Brady Allen (QB) from Purdue
Biggest loss: Brady Allen (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: co-Ron English / co-Mark Hagen → co-Mark Ivey / co-Steve Ellis · 2026
81st pct19th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
217 lbs
6′4″ avg · #258 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
197 lbs
5′10″ avg · #700 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
197 lbs
6′1″ avg · #204 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
243 lbs
6′4″ avg · #442 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
302 lbs
6′5″ avg · #650 of 779 · less than most
D-line
272 lbs
6′4″ avg · #628 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
227 lbs
6′2″ avg · #442 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
194 lbs
6′1″ avg · #183 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tight end via the portal
80%
#12 of 188 stints
Buys Safety via the portal
81%
#13 of 218 stints
Postseason detail2023: Lost to USC 28–42 DIRECTV Holiday Bowl2024: Beat Washington 35–34 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl2025: Beat Toledo 27–22 Bush's Boca Raton Bowl

11 NFL Draft picks: YaYa Diaby (2023), Yasir Abdullah (2023), Kei'Trel Clark (2023), Isaac Guerendo (2024), Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (2024), Jamari Thrash (2024), Jawhar Jordan (2024), Tyler Shough (2025) + 3 more

28–12
2017–2022
Purduecaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program I
Jeff Brohm moved Purdue from Regional Program III to Regional Program I in 6 seasons.

16th-best Purdue tenure of 21 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-7.1 pts
#140 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-11.8 pts
#154 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Darrell Hazell (2013–2016) · succeeded by Ryan Walters (2023–2024).

Season201720182019202020212022Trend
Record & result
Record7–66–74–82–49–48–5
PostseasonW bowlL bowlW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#72#52#25#33#72#38
Style — pass rate
Pass rate52.356.160.363.559.555.4
Coordinators
OCTony Levine / Brian BrohmJaMarcus Shephard / Brian BrohmJaMarcus Shephard / Brian BrohmJaMarcus Shephard / Brian BrohmJaMarcus Shephard / Brian BrohmBrian Brohm
DCNick Holt / Anthony PoindexterNick Holt / Anthony PoindexterNick Holt / Anthony PoindexterBob Diaco / Anthony PoindexterBrad Lambert / Ron English / Mark HagenRon English / Mark Hagen
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense345230527230
Defense701337426119
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%55.158.358.058.156.550.5
Red-zone pass%50.549.661.665.859.449.6
4th-down go%opp. territory27.122.030.842.119.626.1
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
18
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
24
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-6
#135 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 239 lbs
across 10 of 18 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+15.7 lbs
#1 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: IN (3), GA (3), IL (1), NJ (1), TX (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
49.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
52.5
position-weighted
Net
-3.0
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Michael Alaimo (QB) from Purdue
Biggest loss: Michael Alaimo (QB) to Purdue
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-Tony Levine / co-Brian Brohm → co-JaMarcus Shephard / co-Brian Brohm · 2018
34th pct52nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 55.1% → 58.3% (+3.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 77% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: co-Nick Holt / co-Anthony Poindexter → co-Bob Diaco / co-Anthony Poindexter · 2020
37th pct42nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Bob Diaco / co-Anthony Poindexter → Brad Lambert / co-Ron English / co-Mark Hagen · 2021
42nd pct61st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
211 lbs
6′4″ avg · #415 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
217 lbs
6′1″ avg · #87 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
194 lbs
6′0″ avg · #361 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
256 lbs
6′5″ avg · #53 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
304 lbs
6′5″ avg · #596 of 779 · less than most
D-line
290 lbs
6′3″ avg · #248 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
239 lbs
6′2″ avg · #38 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
197 lbs
6′0″ avg · #82 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Quarterback via the portal
67%
#16 of 206 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
80%
#176 of 224 stints
Postseason detail2017: Beat Arizona 38–35 Foster Farms Bowl2018: Lost to Auburn 14–63 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl2021: Beat Tennessee 48–45 TransPerfect Music City Bowl2022: Lost to LSU 7–63 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

14 NFL Draft picks: Deangelo Yancey (2017), Ja'Whaun Bentley (2018), Brycen Hopkins (2020), Markus Bailey (2020), Rondale Moore (2021), Derrick Barnes (2021), George Karlaftis (2022), David Bell (2022) + 6 more

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): George Karlaftis (2021), David Bell (2021)

36–34
2014–2016
Western Kentuckybuilder
Regional Program IV → National Program III
Jeff Brohm raised Western Kentucky from Regional Program IV to National Program III.

1st-best Western Kentucky tenure of 6 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+56.4 pts
#1 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+3.6 pts
#85 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Mike Sanford Jr. (2017–2018).

Season201420152016Trend
Record & result
Record8–512–210–3
PostseasonW bowlW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#88#110#101
Style — pass rate
Pass rate56.554.449.2
Coordinators
OCTyson HeltonTyson HeltonTony Levine / Brian Brohm
DCNick HoltNick HoltNick Holt
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense9795100
Defense93951
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%52.554.050.0
Red-zone pass%55.455.739.0
4th-down go%opp. territory22.938.228.1
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Tyson Helton → co-Tony Levine / co-Brian Brohm · 2016
95th pct100th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 54.0% → 50.0% (-4.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 39% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Central Michigan 49–48 Popeyes Bahamas Bowl2015: Beat South Florida 45–35 Miami Beach Bowl2016: Beat Memphis 51–31 Boca Raton Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: Andrew Jackson (2014), Jonathan Dowling (2014), Tyler Higbee (2016), Brandon Doughty (2016), Prince Charles Iworah (2016), Forrest Lamp (2017), Taywan Taylor (2017)

30–10