Stanford at Louisville
Louisville (4‑3) hosts Stanford (3‑4). Too early for a market line, but the model likes Louisville (94%). Louisville’s offense is at the 93rd percentile on efficiency; Stanford’s defense is at the 0th.
How they got here
Last three games
Stanford · 3-4
Rated 97th in our preseason ratings, 127th now, down 30 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 34-7 vs Elon #230 of 668
won by 27 as a 33.5-point favorite
Last three games
Louisville · 4-3
Rated 61st in our preseason ratings, 31st now, up 30 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Louisville’s EPA/play against Stanford, 93 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Louisville’s EPA/play against Stanford’s defense
Louisville offense, 93rd percentile · Stanford defense, 0th
Louisville’s explosive plays against Stanford’s defense
Louisville offense, 97th percentile · Stanford defense, 14th
Louisville’s rushing EPA against Stanford’s defense
Louisville offense, 90th percentile · Stanford defense, 1st
What’s at stake
Stanford
- Stanford is 3 games back in ACC with 3 left to make it up.
- Stanford is coming off a 27-point win.
Louisville
- Louisville is 1 game back in ACC with 3 left to make it up.
- Louisville is the program that watched Lamar Jackson win a Heisman and then watched the program rebuild around being more than Lamar Jackson.
The series
Stanford leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2024 · Stanford won the last meeting
- 2024Stanford 38-35
Each line is Louisville’s chance to win through that meeting.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Stanford
The chip · vs the national mediaFans hear the same verdict on a loop — that the academic standard is now an anchor, that paying players broke the only model Stanford had, that the smart school can't survive a sport that stopped rewarding being smart. They think the obituary is premature.
What this game touches
The slide from Rose Bowls to the ACC basement. After Harbaugh and David Shaw made Stanford a Pac-12 power, the program collapsed into a half-decade of losing; in 2025 Troy Taylor was fired in March over staff-bullying allegations, GM Andrew Luck installed Frank Reich as a one-year interim, and the Cardinal went 4-8 before Luck handed the rebuild to ex-Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard.
Louisville
The chip · vs the national mediaBrohm himself said it out loud — an unbeaten stretch and three straight strong years, and Louisville still couldn't crack the rankings. Fans hear the same message every fall: prove it against somebody big, because we're not penciling you in.
What this game touches
So close, never through. Jeff Brohm came home and went 9-4 in 2023, 9-4 in 2024 and 9-4 again in 2025 — three straight strong seasons, the second time in school history — yet Louisville keeps finishing 4-4 in the ACC, missing the title game and the national rankings while a Boca Raton Bowl win over Toledo papered over a year that flirted with more.
Best players
Stanford
- Jaivion Green (S) · 42 tackles
- Davis Warren (QB) · 1,630 passing yards
- Sam Mattingly (LB) · 39 tackles
Louisville
- T.J. Capers (LB) · 53 tackles
- Kaleb Beasley (DB) · 49 tackles
- Stanquan Clark (LB) · 48 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Louisville fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (90th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm Saturdays 86
Stanford at Louisville · Saturday, Oct. 31 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 92.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Louisville is worth +5.9 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 80th percentile.
60% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (30-20 home, 16-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.8 at home vs. away over 95 games — outside the ±6.4 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 1,975 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Louisville
- Wk 3Wvs SMU41-31
- Wk 4Lvs Wake Forest27-30
- Wk 5Lat NC State28-31
- Wk 6Wvs Florida State44-20
- Wk 7Wat Syracuse34-26
Stanford
- Wk 3Lat Duke7-35
- Wk 4Wvs Georgia Tech34-27
- Wk 5Lat Wake Forest3-57
- Wk 6Lat Notre Dame7-58
- Wk 7Wvs Elon34-7
Power rating by week
Louisville is rated 10.7 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Louisville4th3-2
- Stanford16th1-3
Last meeting in our History pages
- Stanford 38, Louisville 35Nov 16, 2024