Hawai'i9-42Timmy Chang enters his fourth season with a 9-4 record, navigating a program identity defined by Pacific-island-football tradition and the challenge of sustaining momentum in the Mountain West.
Hawai'i is the only major-college team an entire ocean of islands calls its own — the program that perfected the Run-and-Shoot, crashed the 2008 Sugar Bowl, and asks every visitor to fly six hours and play a different climate.
Warrior fans are sick of being the road trip nobody wants and the time zone nobody watches — a program that has to win twice as convincingly to get half the respect, and knows the mainland forgets it…
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · at Stanford · Sat Aug 29 · 23:00 UTC
Hawai'i is the Mountain West program whose June Jones Run-and-Shoot 2007 12-1 + Aloha Stadium / Ching Athletic Complex + 25-hour-flight visiting-team disorientation define what Pacific-island-football looks like.
Hawai'i enters the 2026 season with a moderate continuity profile and a net portal importer status, bolstered by 16 transfer additions. The team's ceiling scenario projects a 9-4 record and a bowl game appearance.
Vili the Warrior is patient.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Hawai'i leaped 39 spots in SP+ — the 9-4 record and June Jones-era identity raise the question of whether this program can sustain its newfound momentum in the Mountain West.
Timmy Chang enters his fourth season with a 9-4 winning record, but a coordinator change reshaping a unit signals the need for sustained progress in a lower-tier program.
Jackson Harris is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
Pofele Ashlock is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
Jackson Harris is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Hawai'i leaped 39 spots in SP+ — Timmy Chang's 4th season opens with a ceiling no MW program has touched since Jones' 2007 run.
Timmy Chang enters his fourth season with a 9-4 record, navigating a program identity defined by Pacific-island-football tradition and the challenge of sustaining momentum in the Mountain West.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
70th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Hawai'i · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Hawai'i enters 2026 rated No. 68 in 2025 SP+ (+1.7), up 39 spots from 2024. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 230 of 514 board posts (45%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Hawai'i: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 228 of 514 board posts (44%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Opens Aug 29
vs Stanford · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
HI leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
79 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. HI leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Just one AP voter, Dave Preston (WTOP Radio), has them ranked — at #25. The other 65 voters left them off entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
6 games with TV coverage: 1 national broadcast, 1 ESPN, 4 cable
Kickoff windows: 1 afternoon, 5 primetime
17% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~51% league baseline.
1 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves; 4 of 12 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
16% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
8 interceptions of 49 disrupted passes (41 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2025 only.
100 penalties committed, 90 drawn on opponents — a near-even trade all season.
855 penalty yards committed vs. 830 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 5 corners
The split, staged
Believers keep circling back to fan energy; skeptics keep coming back to recent results. our read
How Hawai'i fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Not my team but I always loved the story of Lane Kiffin getting fired on the tarmac.
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 5 corners of the fanbase
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readHawai'i fans are down on the program, with almost nothing concrete behind it yet.
✓ counted We read 57 posts from Hawai'i fans this week.
“Exactly. This is why I said greatest ever in terms of what they had to work with. LSU is a powerhouse SEC team with unlimited resources and talent. IU was the team with the most losses ever, and zero natties, and zero 5 star talent.”— r/CFB
“I knew we were going to lose at least one more game this season. Hopefully, this was the last one. Fuck, that was ugly.”— r/CFB
“More passing yards than rushing yards in a service academy game. How far has this country fallen.”— r/CFB
“The pieces are all here. Some legitimate threats at QB slangin, wideouts who can complete, a d line that can actually penetrate and Matsuzawa being the goat. If the o-line for the love of god can stop holding this game adds another 20+ points. It all comes down to discipline. …”— r/CFB
Forum Pulse
via SportsHawaii
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Hawai'i · high confidence
“University of Hawaii Football • Re: NIL $$$ script script”
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.26 EPA/play | 12 | 11 | 285 / 430 | 66.3 | 3106 #30 FBS | 7.2 | 24 #24 FBS | 9 | 141.2 | 55.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | |
Yards by week → Pocket Passer· Money-downBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. saves his best for the money downs Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.1 bottom 36th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage15.9% bottom 29th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Micah Alejado's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.14 EPA/play | 2 | 5 | 63 / 105 | 60 | 628 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 123.4 | 44.6 | 5.2 | 5.4 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt5.4 bottom 5th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %58.8% bottom 25th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Luke Weaver's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.08 EPA/play | 30 | 13 | 122 | 559 | 4.6 | 3 | 43 | 9.1 | 13.7 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 8.8% (43/490) | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight220 lb 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share23.3% 96th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Landon Sims's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · -0.01 EPA/play | — | 13 | 80 | 371 | 4.6 | 4 | 41 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 23.1 | 11.5 | 6.9% (34/490) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share25.2% 98th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception9.5 71th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cam Barfield's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.79 EPA/play | 9 | 10 | 49 | 963 #27 FBS | 19.7 | 12 #5 FBS | 78 | 15.3 | 10.8 | 13.7% (67/490) | |
Yards by week → Deep Threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The rare part: he takes the top off a defense — and he finds the end zone, too 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception20.4 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate24.5% 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jackson Harris's full player page | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.53 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 76 | 827 #60 FBS | 10.9 | 8 #23 FBS | 47 | 17.6 | 14.1 | 22.0% (108/490) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume76 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)61.1 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Pofele Ashlock's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.14 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 38 | 399 | 10.5 | 2 | 46 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 13.1% (64/490) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.3 bottom 21th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 9th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brandon White's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.50 EPA/play | 11 | 12 | 33 | 306 | 9.3 | 0 | 22 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 9.2% (45/490) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.2 bottom 14th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 39th percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 0th | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.43 EPA/play | 8 | 13 | 28 | 231 | 8.2 | 0 | 30 | 9 | 6.7 | 8.4% (41/490) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.7 bottom 11th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tama Uiliata's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.11 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 28 | 223 | 8.0 | 2 | 26 | 13.9 | 8.2 | 8.0% (39/490) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception7.9 bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 82nd percentile to the 26th among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.23 EPA/play | 87 | 9 | 14 | 107 | 7.6 | 0 | 34 | 0.7 | 1 | 3.5% (17/490) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception4.9 bottom 5th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Devon Tauaefa's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.42 EPA/play | 80 | 9 | 9 | 88 | 9.8 | 1 | 19 | 0.9 | 1.9 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 51 | 13 | 37 | 20 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.3% 72th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 80th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 21st | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 79 | 12 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 5.5 | 7 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate31.0% 96th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View De'Jon Benton's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 10 | 28 | 11 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior View Qwyn Williams's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 57 | 12 | 28 | 9 | 7.5 | 6.5 #55 FBS | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate26.8% 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 5 | 10 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.0% bottom 39th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tariq Jones's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 12 | 9 | 24 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate8.3% bottom 25th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Wynden Ho'Ohuli's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 52 | 9 | 18 | 10 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.9% bottom 47th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Luther McCoy's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 77 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · senior our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 15th percentile to the 37th among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 98 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior View Carsen Stocklinski's full player page | |||||||
| 10 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 10 | 54 | 24 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume54 54th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jamih Otis's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 3 | 12 | 54 | 23 | 31 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Jalen Smith's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 17 | 12 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Giovanni Iovino's full player page | |||||||||
| 43 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 1 | 12 | 73 | 7 | 0 | 2.5 | 1 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.6% 58th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 91st percentile among FBS Ss, fell to 35th, now back up to 79th | |||||||
| Rover | 4 | 13 | 51 | 10 #20 FBS | 2 | 6.5 | 0 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate19.6% 94th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 57th percentile among FBS Ss to the 94th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 12 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.4% 67th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 13th percentile to the 75th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 10 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.5% 73th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 46th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 8th | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 23 | 10 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate19.4% 94th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Virdel Edwards II's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 24 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate26.3% 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Devyn King's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% bottom 37th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Justin Sinclair's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 25 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate18.8% 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 3rd percentile among FBS Ss to the 32nd | |||||||
| 27 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automatic | 17 | 13 | 27/29 | 93.1 | 40/40 | 121 | 52 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete | 19 | 13 | 48 | 2227 | 46.4 | 67 | 21 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · -0.01 EPA/play | — | 13 | 11 | 316 | 28.7 | 1 | 86 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.43 EPA/play | 8 | 13 | 12 | 77 | 6.4 | 0 | 17 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+21 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 | #83 | #96 | -2 | Stanford | W 23–20 137 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 1 | Aug 31 | #83 | #77 | +15.5 | @Arizona | L 6–40 130 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #92 | #131 | -7.5 | Sam Houston | W 37–20 136 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 14 | #96 | #217 | -37.5 | Portland State | W 23–3 131 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #104 | #74 | +2.5 | Fresno State | L 21–23 133 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #107 | #92 | +6.5 | @Air Force | W 44–35 122 | 4-2 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Oct 12 | #103 | #109 | +1.5 | Utah State | W 44–26 146 | 5-2 | 1-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #98 | #102 | +2.5 | @Colorado State | W 31–19 129 | 6-2 | 1-0 |
| 10 | Nov 2 | #94 | #103 | +2.5 | @San José State | L 38–45 140 | 6-3 | 1-1 |
| 11 | Nov 9 | #106 | #40 | +6.5 | San Diego State | W 38–6 131 | 7-3 | 1-1 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #75 | #89 | +2.5 | @UNLV | L 10–38 117 | 7-4 | 1-2 |
| 14 | Nov 30 | #98 | #134 | -8.5 | Wyoming | W 27–7 123 | 8-4 | 2-2 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 17 | Dec 25 | #87 | #90 | -1.5 | California | W 35–31 | 9-4 | 2-2 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 25 | California | W 35–31 | — | — | — | +0.309 | 50.7% | 113.4% | Best success rate |
| Nov 30 | Wyoming | W 27–7 | 417 | 1 | 30:58 | +0.178 | 34.5% | 179.0% | Most explosive |
| Nov 22 | @UNLV | L 10–38 | 231 | 1 | 24:58 | +0.070 | 41.2% | 108.0% | Blowout loss |
| Nov 9 | San Diego State | W 38–6 | 386 | 1 | 33:06 | +0.144 | 39.4% | 137.8% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 2 | @San José State | L 38–45 | 496 | 1 | 33:10 | +0.263 | 45.9% | 140.4% | One-score loss |
| Oct 18 | @Colorado State | W 31–19 | 435 | 1 | 34:59 | +0.300 | 37.9% | 165.0% | |
| Oct 12 | Utah State | W 44–26 | 549 | 1 | 34:01 | +0.260 | 44.6% | 136.0% | |
| Sep 27 | @Air Force | W 44–35 | 543 | 0 | 37:24 | +0.438 | 48.1% | 151.7% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 21 | Fresno State | L 21–23 | 314 | 3 | 29:50 | -0.032 | 31.1% | 155.3% | One-score loss |
| Sep 14 | Portland State | W 23–3 | 357 | 0 | 34:07 | +0.158 | 37.0% | 123.0% | |
| Sep 7 | Sam Houston | W 37–20 | 417 | 2 | 32:53 | +0.043 | 44.7% | 93.8% | |
| Aug 31 | @Arizona | L 6–40 | 293 | 5 | 35:44 | -0.041 | 32.0% | 127.4% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 23 | Stanford | W 23–20 | 306 | 1 | 23:53 | +0.042 | 44.6% | 111.3% | One-score win |
| Season average (13 games) | 395 | 1.4 | +0.164 | 40.9% | 134.0% | ||||
Hawai'i fields a capable pass-first, explosive, big-play offense behind a leaky defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
64th percentile quality, 41st percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 75th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 97th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
33rd percentile success on standard downs, 87th on passing downs — a 54-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 78th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 78th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.16; 71st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 21: 0.16 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Hawai'i reads strongest in explosive plays (top 21%) and passing epa (top 42%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Hawai'i sits at the 21st percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Hawai'i
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Hawai'i · 2018-present
66% home win rate vs 28% on the road. margin runs +14.6 better at home. Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex seats 15,194, averaging 78% full (11,900 attendance, 29 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Landon Sims and Cam Barfield split the carries (120/199 vs 79/199) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Landon Sims gets the clock-killing work.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Pofele Ashlock (WR) and Devon Tauaefa (TE) split the targets (103/120 vs 17/120) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Hawai'i’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.0% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 124-play sample) — mid-pack, 70 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
79°F average kickoff temp; 5% of games had measurable precipitation; 13 mph average wind.
Based on 78 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Hawai'i's 2014–2025 record is 67-86. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1921 · 96 seasons · .467 win rate
Hawai'i went 12-0 in the 2007 regular season, crashed the BCS Sugar Bowl, and lost 41-10 to Georgia. The program's own all-time passing leader just coached the Warriors back to nine wins and a bowl comeback nobody saw coming.
Hawai'i is the only major-college program that an entire ocean of islands calls its own. The geography is the identity: a six-hour flight from the mainland, 80-degree humidity, a time-zone gauntlet that visiting teams never fully shake. June Jones arrived at a program coming off an 0-12 season, installed the Run-and-Shoot, and turned it into the 2007 BCS buster — 12-0 regular season behind Colt Brennan, a Sugar Bowl berth, and the most prolific aerial show the sport had seen. The 41-10 loss to Georgia on the nation's biggest stage is the wound that still gets cited; Warrior fans know the argument by heart and they're tired of it being the last thing anyone remembers.
Timmy Chang came home to coach the program he once quarterbacked to records. The all-time NCAA passing-yards leader who played in the same system is now running it — and in his fourth season, 2025, he delivered nine wins and the Hawai'i Bowl, erasing a 21-point deficit against California in one of the program's greatest comebacks. Chang was named AFCA Region 5 Coach of the Year and got an extension through 2026. The Imua — move forward — philosophy is not a slogan here; it's what the islands require every time they send a team six hours east to play someone who flew in fresh.
The 2026 question is whether Chang's rebuilt Warriors can chase the Mountain West title that has eluded the program since the league realigned. The bowl win proved the foundation is real. The conference championship would prove Hawai'i is a destination again, not just a road trip nobody wants to make.
Air it out — the Run-and-Shoot heritage runs through this program's institutional memory and Chang's offense carries the DNA: four- and five-wide sets, quick throws, a quarterback who distributes the ball fast enough to exploit the spacing the system creates before pass-rush pressure arrives. The weather and the travel are part of the scheme — home games at the Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu are played in conditions that visiting defenses haven't practiced in. The identity is the island: you have to earn it to beat them.
Hawai'i 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.09 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4
Hawai'i: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
Mountain West Standing · 2025
Hawai'i is 3rd in the Mountain West at 2-2. 2 teams above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | 4-1 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 3-1 |
| 3 | Hawai'i | 2-2 |
| 4 | Nevada | 2-2 |
| 5 | Air Force | 2-3 |
| 6 | San José State | 2-3 |
| 7 | Wyoming | 1-4 |
| 8 | North Dakota State | 0-0 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | 0-0 |
| 10 | UTEP | 0-0 |
Coaching Era · Hawai'i
Timmy Chang has held the program for 5 seasons — the era is established.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2007
June Jones's 2007 12-1 + WAC championship + Sugar Bowl appearance + #10 final AP + Colt Brennan Heisman finalist (3rd) made Hawai'i the first non-BCS-conference team in the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar Bowl loss (Georgia 41-10) didn't dim the achievement; the 2007 run + Brennan's Heisman finish broke the G5-can't-reach-BCS-bowl ceiling first.
since 1999
June Jones brought the Run-and-Shoot offense to Hawai'i in 1999 — the four-receiver no-tight-end-no-fullback scheme that produced massive passing statistics. Multiple NCAA passing records (Timmy Chang) + the 'Sky Hi' offensive identity + a Heisman finalist (Colt Brennan) made Hawai'i the Run-and-Shoot's modern home program.
since 2020
Aloha Stadium (1975-2020) hosted Hawai'i home games for decades + the Pro Bowl + Hula Bowl. The 2020 closure for structural reasons forced Hawai'i to move to Ching Athletics Complex (10,000 capacity) — a dramatic downsizing. The temporary venue era + future planned stadium replacement define the 2020s competitive cycle.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2007
12-0 and a BCS Sugar Bowl berth — the islands crash the party
2008
41-10 to Georgia on the sport's biggest stage
Wound
2025
Erases a 21-point deficit to win — tying the largest comeback in program history
Moment of the Year · Hawai'i · 2025
Week 17 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — win 35-31 (home). Last 5 postseason: 4-1.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Hawai'i · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Hawai'i · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Hawai'i
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4
Coaching Era · Hawai'i
Moment of the Year · Hawai'i · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger