Hawai'i

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Latest

The UNLV rivalryHawai'i Mountain West championship odds lengthened — implied probability moved from 20.0% to 6.5% (-13.6pp) between Sep 9 and Sep 10, 2026 (tier C).our read

Mountain West · Timmy Chang, year 5 (23-31) · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 15,194 · 13,959 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches

The model#80 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #98 (-7.1) · FPI #106

The marketHawai'i by 3at Wyoming · our model 57% Hawai'i · a number, not a pick

LastW 29–19 vs New Mexico State · Sat Sep 12 · Elijah Palmer 1 sacks, 2 TFL, 5 tackles

Nextat Wyoming · Sat Sep 26 · 3 pm ET · War Memorial Stadium · Hawai'i by 3 · series 12-17 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 2

Hawai'i · 2026 schedule & results1-2

Wk	Date	Us	Opp	Line	Opponent	Result	Record	Conf
1	Aug 29	#59	#97	+5✗	@Stanford	L 27–37 145	0-1	0-0
1	Sep 6	#59	#91	+2.5✗	UNLV	L 6–21 137	0-2	0-1
2	Sep 13	#62	#148	-7.5✓	New Mexico State	W 29–19 138	1-2	0-1
4	Sep 26	#80	#136	-3	@Wyoming
5	Oct 4	#81	#133		San José State
6	Oct 10				@Arizona State
7	Oct 17				New Mexico
8	Oct 24				@Northern Illinois
10	Nov 7				@UTEP
11	Nov 15				North Dakota State
12	Nov 21				@Nevada
13	Nov 29				Sacramento State

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼

Date	Opp	Result	Yds	TO	TOP	EPA/play	Success%	Explosive%	Note
Sep 13	New Mexico State	W 29–19	420	1	32:13	+0.133	43.4%	101.0%	Season-high EPA/play
Sep 6	UNLV	L 6–21	294	1	32:05	-0.061	33.3%	125.0%	Season-low EPA/play
Aug 29	@Stanford	L 27–37	322	1	29:06	+0.049	35.5%	126.5%	Most explosive
Season average (3 games)			345	1.0		+0.040	37.4%	117.5%

Game Week

4d 19h

until kickoff · at Wyoming · Sat Sep 26 · 3 pm ET

Verdict Begins·Live

Hawai'i is the only major-college team an entire ocean of islands calls its own — the program that perfected the Run-and-Shoot, crashed the 2008 Sugar Bowl, and asks every visitor to fly six hours and play a different climate.

Title DroughtSince 2010 · 16 yrs

Warrior fans are sick of being the road trip nobody wants and the time zone nobody watches — a program that has to win twice as convincingly to get half the respect, and knows the mainland forgets…

low signal

Read the full program story ↓

The season in chapters

Week 10-2L 6–21 vs UNLV · Sat Sep 5

Week 21-0W 29–19 vs New Mexico State · Sat Sep 12

Ahead

Sat Sep 26Next: Wyomingat Wyoming · on the road

What fans said

W 29–19 vs New Mexico State

Hawai'i fans

r/CFB

“Franklin didn’t really lose these games until after Oregon killed him. This is a new low.”

▲ 9 · 1w ago

r/CFB

“Tackling is a concept for us.”

1w ago

L 6–21 vs UNLV

Hawai'i fans

r/CFB

“Where are the pac-12 refs when you need them?!?!?”

▲ 1277 · 2w ago

r/CFB

“I get the same feeling when Hillary had to stand next to Bill when he apologized for the affair.”

▲ 264 · 2w ago

UNLV fans on Hawai'i

r/CFB

“UNLV, North Dakota State, and New Mexico are going to be dueling it out for the top spot in the MW all season. Hawai'i will have to fight to make a bowl game.”

▲ 7 · 2w ago

Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown

What it is like to watch them2025 · 9-4 · last season

Game feel53even gamescombined pts / game6th highest-scoring of 12 in the Mountain West

Heart rate2-2some dramain one-score games (4 of 13)6th most one-score games of 12 in the Mountain West

Margin+4.9competitiveavg scoring margin5th best margin of 12 in the Mountain West

Tempo69uptempooffensive plays / game2nd fastest of 12 in the Mountain West

Big plays1.34highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)3rd most explosive of 12 in the Mountain West

Home crowd13,894avg attendance12th biggest crowds of 12 in the Mountain West

✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season

Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025

Hawai'i has won three of its last five.

Mixed. 6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.

Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4

We’re seeing a bigger flood of TCU money on the spread. And then TCU moneyline on the parlays

Feazel · FOX SportsAug 26, 20263 days before Hawai'i's 2026 opener

The forecast

Next Sep 26

vs Wyoming · away

Season line5.5 winsover -167

PoorPass-first, spreadPoor

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total1 booksO/U 5.5

CFP championship#90 in field+100000

Mountain West title#5 in market+700

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22

Hawai'i · the story right now 5 storylines developing

What Hawai'i's season is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

market_swing2026-09-10~readnew

Timmy Chang's 5th season opens with a 9-4 record and #115 talent, but the market's 0.1-point win total drop signals growing skepticism about sustaining Hawai'i's Pacific-island-football identity.

what happenedHawai'i Mountain West championship odds lengthened — implied probability moved from 20.0% to 6.5% (-13.6pp) between Sep 9 and Sep 10, 2026 (tier C). ✓ fact

the contextwin total down 0.1 — solo market signal, no peers moved the same direction

our readdeveloping

program_outlookthis cycle~readnew

Hawai'i leaped 39 spots in SP+ — the 9-4 record and June Jones-era identity raise the question of whether this program can sustain its newfound momentum in the Mountain West.

what happenedHawai'i enters 2026 rated No. 68 in 2025 SP+ (+1.7), up 39 spots from 2024. ✓ fact

our readbackground

money down2025 cycle✓ factnew

Jackson Harris is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.

our readdeveloping

money down2025 cycle✓ factnew

Pofele Ashlock is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.

our readdeveloping

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Jackson Harris is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.

our readbackground

How past storylines here turned out

Died downHawai'i's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Died downHawai'i's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Floor 4-8Ceiling 9-4Base 7-6

0 wins13 wins

Floor4-8No postseason.

Base7-6A bowl game.

Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore

Following now · Hawai'i · Market Confidence

The market moved on Hawai'i. That's not nothing.

Hawai'i Mountain West championship odds lengthened — implied probability moved from 20.0% to 6.5% (-13.6pp) between Sep 9 and Sep 10, 2026 (tier C). It is win total down 0.1 — solo market signal, no peers moved the same direction. The market moved; the fan base is split on what it means. Oddsmakers react to information, not sentiment — but that doesn't mean they're right. The room is divided — bulls and bears both have game-specific cases.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud

DOUBTBELIEF

Skeptics1 doubt take

Believers6 bull takes

💬 fans: 41% volume

The saga so far2 weeks old

last weekMountain West title odds: +400 → +1450 (▼13.5pp implied)

last weekMountain West title odds: +1350 → +400 (▲13.1pp implied)

2 weeks agoMountain West title odds: +700 → +1250 (▼5.1pp implied)

CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take

Timmy Chang's 5th season opens with a 9-4 record and #115 talent, but the market's 0.1-point win total drop signals growing skepticism about sustaining Hawai'i's Pacific-island-football identity.

Next · what to watch

Win total moves are the sharpest signal the market sends in the offseason. They don't reflect fan enthusiasm — they reflect information: roster losses, schedule difficulty, injury reports, and coaching staff changes that haven't hit the beat press yet. One-win adjustments are deliberate, not rounding. Watch whether the line moves again — markets don't stop at one adjustment when the signal changes. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.

Source of record: Hawai'i Mountain West championship odds lengthened — implied probability moved from 20.0% to 6.5% (-13.6pp) between Sep 9 and Sep 10, 2026 (tier C) — win total down 0.1 — solo market signal, no peers moved the same direction.

How each room is reacting — tap to expand

Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards loud

📣Believers6 bullish/market items -- the case it's working.›

The 'market knows something fans don't' read -- when odds move, it's on information.

“Hawai‘i Pacific University adds surfing team to athletics department”

Aloha State Daily · 2026-09-17 · read ↗

“Cowboys Host Hawai’i on Homecoming in Gold Out of War Memorial Stadium”

University of Wyoming Athletics · 2026-09-21 · read ↗

“Mountaintop View 9-21-26. Bulldogs, Bobcats, Beavers win, Jason Eck, AP Poll”

MWC Connection · 2026-09-21 · read ↗

🧐Skeptics“3 questions about Hawaii football Archives” — the real counter.›

The 'markets overcorrect' counter -- lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.

“3 questions about Hawaii football Archives”

hawaiisportsradio.com · 2026-09-20 · read ↗

💬The boards41% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.›

This event was in 360 of 878 board posts (41%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"... 32686&ei=1 Uncle Kaepernick can throw a football over a mountain. Statistics: Posted by Walkoff Balk — Mon Sep 21, 2026 4:14 pm"

SportsHawaii ~ fan take

"Too bad that the Wahine could not close out UCLA. 5th set meltdown after having three match points. Statistics: Posted by My3Cats — Mon Sep 21, 2026 11:11 am"

SportsHawaii ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Following now · Hawai'i · Season outlook Confidence

One of the biggest jumps in the country. Hawai'i has to prove the model right.

Hawai'i enters 2026 rated No. 68 in 2025 SP+ (+1.7), up 39 spots from 2024. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud

DOUBTBELIEF

Skeptics1 doubt take

Believers2 bull takes

💬 fans: 40% volume

The saga so far2 weeks old

last weekMountain West title odds: +400 → +1450 (▼13.5pp implied)

last weekMountain West title odds: +1350 → +400 (▲13.1pp implied)

2 weeks agoMountain West title odds: +700 → +1250 (▼5.1pp implied)

CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take

Hawai'i leaped 39 spots in SP+ — the 9-4 record and June Jones-era identity raise the question of whether this program can sustain its newfound momentum in the Mountain West.

Next · what to watch

The non-obvious consequence of a major jump in the model is the expectations tax: a season that would have read as a breakthrough last year now reads as meeting the floor. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.

Source of record: Hawai'i enters 2026 rated No. 68 in 2025 SP+ (+1.7), up 39 spots from 2024.

How each room is reacting — tap to expand

Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards loud

📣Believers2 bullish items -- the case it's working.›

The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.

“Hawai‘i Pacific University adds surfing team to athletics department”

Aloha State Daily · 2026-09-17 · read ↗

“Cowboys Host Hawai’i on Homecoming in Gold Out of War Memorial Stadium”

University of Wyoming Athletics · 2026-09-21 · read ↗

“Warriors Earn Breakthrough Win Over New Mexico State - University of Hawai'i at Manoa Athletics”

Hawaii athletics · 2026-09-13 · read ↗

🧐Skeptics“3 questions about Hawaii football Archives” — the real counter.›

The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.

“3 questions about Hawaii football Archives”

hawaiisportsradio.com · 2026-09-20 · read ↗

💬The boards40% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.›

This event was in 354 of 878 board posts (40%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"Too bad that the Wahine could not close out UCLA. 5th set meltdown after having three match points. Statistics: Posted by My3Cats — Mon Sep 21, 2026 11:11 am"

SportsHawaii ~ fan take

"We won because we flew down from Alaska ) Man there is something special about a green can down in the islands, up here is eh, down there is mo bettah. Statistics: Posted by akswf"

SportsHawaii ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Rival pulse

UNLV

Uneasy

-6

Ninth Island Showdown

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

The story

RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster Reload - Hawai'i

2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22

Returning Production64%Moderate continuity

Talent Composite#115 nationally247 composite 556.8

Portal Additions16Primary repair: DL

Portal Losses9Primary pressure: QB

Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded

Recruiting Reload#124Depth class

WRin 4 - Tre' Griffiths3.50out 3 - Jackson Harris3.90Upgrade

current room: 191 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Sin 2 - Kodi Decambra4.28out 2 - Tim Malo3.49Upgrade

CBin 2 - Caleb Brown3.49out 1 - Deliyon Freeman2.00Upgrade

current room: 185 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Ball Hawk2024 profilereads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away

QBin 1 - Bjorn Jurgensen3.60out 2 - Dermaricus Davis4.28Downgrade

current room: 186 lbs avg (2025 roster)

IOLin 2 - Khalil Walker3.50out 0Need Filled

current room: 296 lbs avg (2025 roster)

DLin 2 - Ozzy Pollard3.50out 0Need Filled

current room: 252 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Full roster (111 players)

UNKGeoffrey Speight

DLAdam Tomczyk, Elijah Williams, Ha'aheo Dela Cruz, Iosefa Letuli, Jordan Lynch, Josh Sagapolutele, Ka'eo Akana, Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina, Luther McCoy, Nazaiah Caravallo, Noah Wily, Ozzy Pollard, Spencer Elliott, Tonga Paea, Waipehe Winchester, Zoram Petelo

LBAisiah Paogofie, Alika Cavaco-Amoy, Benjamin Hudson, Jamih Otis, Julian Smith, Junior Fiaui, Kingston Costales, Kolo Kaululaau, Matteus Ioane, Tasi Tadio, Wynden Ho'Ohuli, Zaden Mariteragi, Zion Vea

LSJack Mowrey, Nick Pang

OLAndrew Price, Boogie Henderson, Cooper Troy, Dean Briski, Denaris DeRosa Jr., Eric McFall, Ethan Spencer, Ezekiel Salanoa, Jay Tauala-Harris, Jordan Kernaghan, Josh Tavui, Judah Kaio, Kawika Hallums, Khalil Walker, Lautaimi Manuma, Lipe Moala, Tu'I Muti, Uluaki Taukiuvea, Vake Hehea

PGannon Miller, Gehrig Heil

PKHudson Borsari, Sean Olvera-Harle

QBBjorn Jurgensen, Hazyn Botelho, Isaac Jaramilla-Phe, Isaac Jaramilla-Phe, Micah Alejado

RBCam Barfield, DeVon Rice, James Steffany-Fiame, Noah Bartley, Sitani Mikaele, TJ Fo'ilefutu, Titan Lacaden

TEAnthony Hickman, Devon Tauaefa, Frank Abreu, Matthew Bailiff, Micah Kaonohi-Kaihenui, Oakie Salave'a, Vainuupo Fanuaea

WRAudric Harris, Blaze Kamoku, Brandon Gaea, Carson Brown, Devin Alves, Diezel Kamoku, Dillon Booth, Jarvis Heimuli, Josiah Fetui, Kainoa Carvalho, Koa Eldredge, Nick Delgadillo, Pofele Ashlock, Robert Haynes IV, Tama Uiliata, Tre' Griffiths

Offseason movesEvery addition and subtraction since the last snap.

The Offseason Ledger · Hawai'i

4 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news

News
Mountain West title odds: +400 → +1450 (▼13.5pp implied)
Mountain west title odds dropped 13.5pp without an obvious public catalyst.
Sep 10
News
Mountain West title odds: +1350 → +400 (▲13.1pp implied)
Mountain west title odds improved 13.1pp without an obvious public catalyst.
Sep 9
News
Mountain West title odds: +700 → +1250 (▼5.1pp implied)
Mountain west title odds dropped 5.1pp without an obvious public catalyst.
Sep 7
News
First student runout at UH game
Chang gets students into the tunnel before the depth chart's sorted out — cultural buy-in matters when you're #124 in class rank and the QB room is still unsettled.
Sep 15Reported

Who's movedWho's transferring in and out, right now.

Transfer portal snapshot

+15.5 net portal points

(raw ledger: +29.5 — unweighted, no position adjustment)

IOL

+6.9

need filled

+6.7

need filled

EDGE

+5.4

need filled

+4.9

+4.3

-4.2

+3.3

low confidence

+3.2

-1.0

low confidence

Top commits

Top 3 commits

2026 class

★★★☆☆

Robert Haynes IV

WR · Missouri City, TX

#1358 national

Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet

★★★☆☆

Andrew Price

OT · Boise, ID

#1654 national

★★★☆☆

Jahren Altura

ATH · Honolulu, HI

#1976 national

Where they're fromWhere this class actually comes from, on the map.

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

HI · 6AZ · 3NV · 3TX · 2AB · 1CA · 1ID · 1

HI leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

79 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. HI leads the pull.

Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles

That is 31.2% of every high-school FBS signee HI produced over those cycles — the biggest share any program takes — California is next. The full map →

Miles from homeHow far this roster travelled to get here.

Miles from home · 2026 roster

The median Hawai'i player grew up 2,397 miles from campus.

Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.

1st-farthest from home in FBS of 135 ranked →

Closest to homeFarthest from home

Middle 50%12–2,794 miquartile spread

Within 100 mi49%49 of 99 players

Farthest5,069 miJoenel Figueroa · Lawrence, MA

Closest2 miKa'eo Akana · Honolulu, HI

Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 99 of 111 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

Community pulse

No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.

How it turned outHow an old class actually turned out, years on.

Class Autopsy

The 2023 class: 0 drafted so far, 83% never transferred. B

See the class →

Belief historyHow today's fan mood compares to the program's past.

→

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

59th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. marketWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.

Fan vs. market↑

59^th

Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)

5.5

Vegas O/U wins
(26^th among FBS)

Fans 33pp more bullish than market implies

Win total consensus · 1 book

TakeawaysWhat this defense does once it gets the ball.

Takeaway conversion

13% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~19% league average, and due for more.

2 interceptions of 15 disrupted passes (13 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.

Penalty battle

17 penalties committed, 19 drawn on opponents — netting a 31-yard field-position edge.

127 penalty yards committed vs. 158 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site

Hawai'i

Hawai&#x27;i has won three of its last five.

Season expectations

What Hawai'i's season is really about

How past storylines here turned out

Hawai'i's most likely season is 7-6 — a bowl game. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 9-4.

The market moved on Hawai'i. That's not nothing.

One of the biggest jumps in the country. Hawai'i has to prove the model right.

Rival pulse

The story

Roster Reload - Hawai'i

The Offseason Ledger · Hawai'i

Transfer portal snapshot

Community pulse

Hawai'i has won three of its last five.