Air Force4-83Troy Calhoun enters his 10th season with a 4-8 losing record, facing the challenge of elevating Air Force's program identity beyond its current lower-tier FBS standing.
Air Force plays football the way the Academy does everything — disciplined, undersized, and aimed at one trophy that means more than any ranking: the Commander-in-Chief's, decided against Army and Navy.
Falcons fans say the talking heads write the academy off every August — too small, too slow, the offense from another century — then act surprised when those cadets out-discipline a more talented rost…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Duquesne · Sat Sep 5 · 17:00 UTC
Air Force is the Colorado Springs service academy whose Troy Calhoun triple-option longevity + Commander-in-Chief's Trophy competition + Falcon Stadium altitude define what mountain-west service-academy football looks like.
The team returns only 63% of its roster, and its recruiting rank of #136 suggests limited talent acquisition. With four transfers lost, including key players like Trae Williams at CB, the unit may struggle to compete consistently.
The Falcon is in flight.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Air Force leaped 31 spots in SP+ — the 4-8 record under Troy Calhoun in his sixth season complicates the leap's staying power.
Troy Calhoun enters his 10th season with a 4-8 losing record, facing the challenge of elevating Air Force's program identity beyond its current lower-tier FBS standing.
Owen Allen: a closer signal screened this season.
Air Force leaped 31 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and 4-8 record is the story Troy Calhoun has to answer in Mountain West this year.
Air Force: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Air Force releases preseason depth chart
Depth chart drops with CB still a pressure point and a class ranked 129th — Calhoun's got the win total climbing to 7.5 anyway, which means the option machine is doing more work than the recruiting rankings are.
Air Force fires AD Nathan Pine
31 spots up in SP+, win total spiked a full game, and now Pine is out — when a program is ascending that fast, somebody upstairs either gets credit or gets cleared.
Win total: 6.5 → 7.5 (▲1)
Win total jumped from 6.5 to 7.5 with conference peers flat — the books see something program-specific.
Xavier Villamor commits to Air Force
CB room has pressure and the class sits at #133 — Villamor is Calhoun adding competition to a spot that can't afford to stay thin on a roster trending toward legitimacy.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2020
1st percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Air Force · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Air Force enters 2025 rated No. 80 in SP+ (-3.2), up 31 spots from 2024. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 95 of 205 board posts (46%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Air Force win total rose from 6.5 to 7.5 (+1 wins) between Jun 2026 and Jul 2026. It is win total up 1.0 — solo market signal, no peers moved the same direction. The coverage is already ahead of this. The fan base is aligned with the move. The coverage runs aligned with the move.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'market knows something fans don't' read -- when odds move, it's on information.
The 'markets overcorrect' counter -- lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 12 of 205 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Opens Sep 5
vs Duquesne · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
TX leads the 2026 class with 12 commits. National footprint reaching 17 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
191 signees across 35 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
12 games with TV coverage: 2 national broadcast, 10 cable
Kickoff windows: 3 noon, 6 afternoon, 3 primetime
Recovering 29% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~51% league rate.
2 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Converting 23% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
7 interceptions of 31 disrupted passes (24 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2025 only.
Winning the penalty battle: 43 penalties committed vs. 65 drawn on opponents, a 161-yard edge.
375 penalty yards committed vs. 536 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 5 corners
One voice
Every cohort from the die-hards to the analytics crowd lands within 0.04 of each other — a rare consensus. The loudest voice in the room:
‘Where I’m meant to be’ | QB Liam Szarka reflects on commitment to Air Force football - Colorado Springs Gazette
news.google.com →How Air Force fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readAir Force fans are down on the program, but it's more feel than fact right now.
✓ counted We read 241 posts from Air Force fans this week.
Fanbase Health Index · Air Force · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dual Threat · +0.37 EPA/play | 9 | 10 | 75 / 120 | 62.5 | 1294 | 10.8 | 9 | 5 | 169.5 | 61.0 | 9.7 | 4.8 | |
Yards by week → Dual ThreatDangerous with both arm and legs — defenses can't just pin the ears back. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 10 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush yards / carry4.9 89th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage61.3% 100th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||||
| +0.24 EPA/play | 11 | 5 | 16 / 28 | 57.1 | 374 | 13.4 | 4 | 2 | 202.2 | 40.1 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.11 EPA/play | 2 | 11 | 131 | 749 | 5.7 | 5 | 43 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 15.5 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 67th percentile among FBS RBs, up from the 12th | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.05 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 91 | 419 | 4.6 | 4 | 64 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 10.2 | 5.7 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Dylan Carson's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.36 EPA/play | 8 | 12 | 57 | 285 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 17.2 | 19.0 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.8 bottom 35th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate3.5% bottom 39th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Christopher Frew's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.23 EPA/play | 4 | 7 | 49 | 207 | 4.2 | 3 | 27 | 19.8 | 16.1 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight245 lb 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate6.1% 76th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.37 EPA/play | 21 | 12 | 35 | 584 | 16.7 | 2 | 74 | 10.8 | 19.7 | 35.4% (52/147) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception17.8 82th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate5.7% bottom 32th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||
| Move TE · +1.00 EPA/play | 88 | 11 | 21 | 370 | 17.6 | 6 #62 FBS | 68 | 6.3 | 6 | 18.4% (27/147) | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. The rare part: he takes the top off a defense — and he finds the end zone, too 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception28.4 100th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate28.6% 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 3rd percentile to the 78th among FBS TEs | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.83 EPA/play | 18 | 10 | 15 | 358 | 23.9 | 4 | 52 | 6 | 6.2 | 16.3% (24/147) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception29.5 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate26.7% 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Quin Smith's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.94 EPA/play | 81 | 6 | 12 | 260 | 21.7 | 1 | 53 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 12.2% (18/147) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception21.1 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jonah Dawson's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.83 EPA/play | 10 | 3 | 5 | 109 | 21.8 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 4.3 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 96 | 12 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 58th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Peyton Zdroik's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 9 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 34th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 75th | |||||||
| Versatile End | 95 | 9 | 20 | 7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate2.5% bottom 6th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 51st to 24th percentile among FBS EDGEs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 93 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · junior · 2-star, 2022 class View Andrew Tillett's full player page | |||||||
| 91 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 12 | 108 | 39 | 69 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume108 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.9% bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Blake Fletcher's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 32 | 8 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.7% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.2% bottom 16th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dallas Daley's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 33 | 9 | 31 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume31 bottom 24th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brody Bujnoch's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 30 | 12 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 11 #74 FBS | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. The rare part: he ranges sideline to sideline — and he lives in the backfield, too 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate36.7% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | — | 5 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume18 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.8% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Luke Fisher's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 58 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.5% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate11.8% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 51st percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 0th | |||||||||
| 45 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 5 | 12 | 76 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume76 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 2 | 11 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.8% 69th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Korey Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 10 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Mikhail Seiken's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 9 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cover Corner· Takeaway threatSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · senior our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 38th percentile among FBS CBs, up from the 3rd | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 26 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.3% bottom 31th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Nick Beckwith's full player page | |||||||
| 19 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 9 | 7/9 | 77.8 | 14/14 | 35 | 52 | |
| 39 | 6 | 3/6 | 50 | 26/26 | 35 | 31 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 12 | 23 | 1024 | 44.5 | 60 | 11 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.37 EPA/play | 21 | 12 | 7 | 152 | 21.7 | 0 | 27 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.37 EPA/play | 21 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | 7 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+12 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #68 | #221 | -30.5 | Bucknell | W 49–13 122 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 14 | #87 | #132 | -3.5 | @Utah State | L 30–49 140 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #89 | #38 | +11.5 | Boise State | L 37–49 130 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #92 | #107 | -6.5 | Hawai'i | L 35–44 122 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #100 | #29 | +13.5 | @Navy | L 31–34 119 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #94 | #74 | +7.5 | @UNLV | L 48–51 143 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #91 | #106 | -3.5 | Wyoming | W 24–21 130 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #101 | #79 | +1 | Army | L 17–20 122 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #113 | #99 | +6.5 | @San José State | W 26–16 133 | 3-6 | 2-2 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #104 | #67 | +7.5 | @UConn | L 16–26 122 | 3-7 | 2-2 |
| 13 | Nov 23 | #113 | #99 | +3.5 | New Mexico | L 3–20 114 | 3-8 | 2-3 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | #142 | #185 | -2.5 | @Colorado State | W 42–21 117 | 4-8 | 2-3 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28 | @Colorado State | W 42–21 | 420 | 0 | 40:47 | +0.447 | 54.1% | 113.5% | |
| Nov 23 | New Mexico | L 3–20 | 161 | 2 | 29:14 | -0.140 | 34.4% | 118.3% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 15 | @UConn | L 16–26 | 356 | 0 | 35:25 | +0.085 | 45.1% | 83.7% | |
| Nov 8 | @San José State | W 26–16 | 302 | 0 | 35:51 | +0.185 | 34.7% | 127.5% | |
| Nov 1 | Army | L 17–20 | 335 | 3 | 34:04 | +0.158 | 44.9% | 108.7% | One-score loss |
| Oct 18 | Wyoming | W 24–21 | 363 | 0 | 33:03 | +0.214 | 42.2% | 126.1% | One-score win |
| Oct 11 | @UNLV | L 48–51 | 603 | 1 | 36:51 | +0.483 | 58.5% | 117.2% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | @Navy | L 31–34 | 460 | 1 | 32:28 | +0.357 | 49.2% | 137.2% | One-score loss |
| Sep 27 | Hawai'i | L 35–44 | 494 | 1 | 22:36 | +0.561 | 53.3% | 172.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | Boise State | L 37–49 | 515 | 1 | 36:20 | +0.412 | 45.3% | 158.7% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 14 | @Utah State | L 30–49 | 445 | 3 | 38:11 | +0.253 | 47.0% | 102.5% | |
| Aug 30 | Bucknell | W 49–13 | 426 | 0 | 31:38 | +0.460 | 64.4% | 98.8% | Best success rate |
| Season average (12 games) | 407 | 1.0 | +0.290 | 47.8% | 122.1% | ||||
Air Force fields an elite run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind a porous, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
86th percentile quality, 11th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 100th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 99th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
82nd percentile success on standard downs, 69th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 49th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 99th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.29; 83rd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.46 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Air Force reads strongest in passing epa (top 1%) and success rate (top 11%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Air Force sits at the 0th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Air Force
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Air Force · 2018-present
68% home win rate vs 48% on the road. margin runs +9.3 better at home. Falcon Stadium seats 46,692, averaging 56% full (26,296 attendance, 24 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Owen Allen and Dylan Carson split the carries (131/221 vs 90/221) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Owen Allen gets the clock-killing work.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Cade Harris (WR) and Bruin Fleischmann (TE) split the targets (49/72 vs 23/72) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Bruin Fleischmann produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Air Force’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.1% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 106-play sample) — mid-pack, 105 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
60°F average kickoff temp; 4% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 69 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Air Force's 2014–2025 record is 89-56. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1956 · 70 seasons · .542 win rate
Air Force went 4-8 in 2025 and lost the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy to Navy by three points. Troy Calhoun is in his 19th year running a triple-option with cadets who will commission as officers — the question in Colorado Springs is whether the model needs an update, or whether the model just needs a bounce-back season.
The Falcons measure their falls differently than the rest of college football. National rankings are not the obsession; the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy is — the three-way competition against Army and Navy that decides something more specific than a bowl bid. Air Force has won more Trophies than either of the other academies, and the program's identity is organized around defending that. Falcon Stadium at 7,258 feet, future officers running the triple option by assignment, and a cadet wing that shows up in uniform — none of it is backdrop; it is the argument.
The 2025 season cracked the argument. After 19 straight season-opening wins — one of the longest such streaks in the country — the Falcons cratered to 4-8, their worst record in the Calhoun era. The defense tightened late, holding five of their last six opponents under 21 points, but the damage was done: a 34-31 loss to Navy in El Paso handed the Trophy to Annapolis and closed a year the program will not cite with pride. Entering 2026, Calhoun — an academy graduate, the dean of service-academy coaches — faces the sharper version of the question that trails every triple-option program: is the model still bending bigger, faster teams, or is the gap from the portal era finally showing?
The 2026 season will test both factions of the Falcon internal argument. The traditionalists want the option run pure and the Trophy reclaimed — they believe conditioning and altitude and assignment football still bend any roster on a given Saturday in Colorado Springs. The modernizers point to the 4-8 and ask whether the academy must adapt its scheme and embrace the transfer window to stop the slides. Both will be watching the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy race in December. That is still the only scoreboard that settles it.
Triple-option precision at altitude — Air Force runs a disciplined option attack by future officers whose installation of the scheme is, by design, more complete than most rosters achieve. Misdirection, cut blocks, and fourth-quarter conditioning are the weapons; the 7,258-foot stadium is the recruited advantage. On defense, assignment integrity and swarming pursuit; the offense-defense pairing is built to make bigger, more talented teams make mistakes over four quarters rather than outrace them in the first.
Air Force 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.03 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8
Air Force: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Mountain West Standing · 2025
Air Force sits 5th of 10 in the Mountain West at 2-3. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | 4-1 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 3-1 |
| 3 | Hawai'i | 2-2 |
| 4 | Nevada | 2-2 |
| 5 | Air Force | 2-3 |
| 6 | San José State | 2-3 |
| 7 | Wyoming | 1-4 |
| 8 | North Dakota State | 0-0 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | 0-0 |
| 10 | UTEP | 0-0 |
Coaching Era · Air Force
Troy Calhoun into year 13 — a multi-decade era by modern CFB standards.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1962
Falcon Stadium sits at 6,621 feet — the second-highest-elevation FBS stadium, about 600 feet below Wyoming's War Memorial Stadium (the actual highest). The thin air + Colorado Rockies backdrop + Cadet wing formation pre-game create a venue experience unique in CFB. Visiting flatland teams cite the altitude as a fourth-quarter conditioning concern.
since 1972
The Commander-in-Chief's Trophy goes to the service academy with the best head-to-head record across Army-Navy-Air Force triangle. Air Force has won the trophy 20+ times — most of any service academy. The annual competition + Commander-in-Chief's presence + White House award ceremony are permanent program identity.
since 2007
Troy Calhoun's 2007-present tenure — the longest continuous head-coach run in modern Air Force football — sustained the triple-option scheme + recruiting model. Multiple bowl appearances + Mountain West championship contention + sustained Commander-in-Chief's Trophy competition + 2023 Coach of the Year nods. Calhoun's longevity is structural program identity.
The Falcons' 49-13 win over Bucknell in Week 1 produced a margin 36.5 points above the team's season-average of -0.5 — the widest deviation from the baseline of any game the Falcons played last year. Go Air Force: the Cadet Wing got its loudest scoreboard of the season in Week 1.
gamelog · 2025 season · wk 1The Falcons' passing EPA sat at the 98.9 percentile of FBS last season — remarkable for a program built on the triple option, where the run usually carries the offense. Go Air Force: the ground game gets the name, but through the air that roster was elite.
Savant card · 2025 season through postseasonOpponent rushing EPA against Air Force checked in at just the 0.4 percentile of the country last season — meaning almost every offense the Falcons faced moved the ball on the ground. The same team that produced an elite passing attack allowed one of the country's most efficient rushing attacks against it.
Savant card · 2025 season through postseasonOpponent passing EPA against the Falcons sat at just the 1.8 percentile nationally last season — pairing with the run defense to make Air Force one of the most efficient units to move the ball against in the country that year, on paper at least. Falcons win with the ball in their own hands; that fall, it was mostly by necessity.
Savant card · 2025 season through postseasonProgram memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
DeBerry's peak — a Bluebonnet Bowl win and a top-5 ranking, the high-water mark of academy football
2025
Air Force opened a season with a win for the 19th straight year — second-longest in the nation behind Ohio State — before the 2025 slide
Moment of the Year · Air Force · 2025
Week 1 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2023 — win 31-21 (home). Last 5 postseason: 5-0.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–20242 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Steve Russ — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Air Force · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Air Force · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Air Force
Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8
Coaching Era · Air Force
Moment of the Year · Air Force · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline