Air Force beats Nevada 36-33 in 2 overtimes

Team pages: Air Force · Nevada

Air Force2-136
Nevada1-333Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nev. · Crowd 20,673FS1

Air Force beat Nevada 36-33 in 2 overtimes.

We had Air Force favored. It won.

Next: Air Force beat Navy 14-9, Sat Oct 3

Next: Nevada beat UTEP 30-13, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Conti 7-yd TD run, Air Force goes ahead 36-33 (2OT). Air Force went from 36% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Air Force a 68% chance, and the closing betting line (Air Force was a 4.5-point favorite) put it at 64%.

A tight one: Air Force bottomed out at 33% and won.

Up to 67% in the first quarter, then Nevada lost it.

FinalAir Force 36-33 NevadaAir Force wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q41OT2OT58% at halfAir ForceNevadaLowest 33%Won36-331−29Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT58% at halfAir ForceNevadaLowest 33%Won36-331Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q41OT2OT42% at halfNevadaAir ForceHigh 67%Lost33-361+29Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT42% at halfNevadaAir ForceHigh 67%Lost33-361Scores

The four plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 1:49Turner 57-yd TD run, ties it 27-27Air Force 86% → 57% (−29)
  2. 22OTConti 6-yd runAir Force 60% → 36% (−24)
  3. 32OTSzarka 5-yd runAir Force 59% → 36% (−23)
  4. 42OTConti 7-yd TD run, Air Force goes ahead 36-33Air Force 36% → 100% (+64)

The four plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 1:49Turner 57-yd TD run, ties it 27-27Nevada 14% → 43% (+29)
  2. 22OTConti 6-yd runNevada 40% → 64% (+24)
  3. 32OTSzarka 5-yd runNevada 41% → 64% (+23)
  4. 42OTConti 7-yd TD run, Air Force goes ahead 36-33Nevada 64% → 0% (−64)
Air Force’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Air Force -4.5), at 53% for Air Force (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Air Force’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 1:32Turner 8-yd TD runNevada goes ahead 10-3Q1, 1:32 · Air Force 3, Nevada 10▼13%Air Force’s chance to win, 46% to 33%▼13%Air Force’s chance to win, 46% to 33%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  2. Q3, 4:43Bianco 9-yd TD runNevada goes ahead 17-13Q3, 4:43 · Air Force 13, Nevada 17▼16%Air Force’s chance to win, 55% to 39%▼16%Air Force’s chance to win, 55% to 39%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  3. Q4, 10:24Szarka 7-yd TD pass to LongAir Force goes ahead 20-17Q4, 10:24 · Air Force 20, Nevada 17▲13%Air Force’s chance to win, 45% to 58%▲13%Air Force’s chance to win, 45% to 58%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  4. Q4, 5:56Szarka 8-yd TD runAir Force leads 27-17Q4, 5:56 · Air Force 27, Nevada 17▲11%Air Force’s chance to win, 84% to 95%▲11%Air Force’s chance to win, 84% to 95%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  5. Q4, 3:27Szarka sacked for a 7-yd lossQ4, 3:27 · Air Force 27, Nevada 20▼2%Air Force’s chance to win, 88% to 86%▼2%Air Force’s chance to win, 88% to 86%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  6. Q4, 1:49Turner 57-yd TD runties it 27-27Q4, 1:49 · Air Force 27, Nevada 27▼29%Air Force’s chance to win, 86% to 57%▼29%Air Force’s chance to win, 86% to 57%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  7. Q4, 0:17Szarka intercepted by Snelling at the Nevada 47Q4, 0:17 · Air Force 27, Nevada 27▼17%Air Force’s chance to win, 56% to 39%▼17%Air Force’s chance to win, 56% to 39%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  8. OvertimeKelley run for a 2-yd lossfumblesOvertime · Air Force 30, Nevada 2730-27score after the play30-27score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  9. OvertimeConti 7-yd TD runAir Force goes ahead 36-33Overtime · Air Force 36, Nevada 33▲64%Air Force’s chance to win, 36% to 100%▲64%Air Force’s chance to win, 36% to 100%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX

Every drive

Air Force scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Nevada on 7 of its 12.

Air Force’s drives are teal, Nevada’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Nevada: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 19Field goalAir Force: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 25Field goalNevada: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAir Force: Punt, from 75 yards out to 62PuntQ2Nevada: Punt, from 81 yards out to 46PuntAir Force: Touchdown, from 1 yards out to 0TouchdownNevada: Punt, from 88 yards out to 70PuntAir Force: End of half, from 77 yards out to 56End of halfQ3Air Force: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 16Field goalNevada: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAir Force: Punt, from 75 yards out to 44PuntNevada: Punt, from 89 yards out to 82PuntQ4Air Force: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownNevada: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 45DownsAir Force: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownNevada: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 14Field goalAir Force: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntNevada: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownAir Force: Interception, from 75 yards out to 60InterceptionNevada: End of game, from 53 yards out to 46End of gameOTAir Force: Field goal, from 25 yards out to 11Field goalNevada: Field goal, from 25 yards out to 18Field goalOTNevada: Field goal, from 25 yards out to 21Field goalAir Force: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0Touchdown

From Nevada’s side

Nevada’s best moment: Turner 57-yd TD run, ties it 27-27 (Q4 1:49). It lifted Nevada’s win chance by 29 points.

5 lead changes. Too close to call on 78% of plays.

What it cost

Nevada’s chance to win the conference fell from 3% to 1%.

Win the conference

Air Force · won0% → ▲1%
Nevada · lost3% → ▼1%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Air Force 36, Nevada 33

Nevada covered +4.5 by 1.5. The total, 69, went over 50.5.

Air ForceNevadaTotal yardsAir Force 455Nevada 411455411Passing yardsAir Force 92Nevada 22492224Rushing yardsAir Force 363Nevada 187363187First downsAir Force 24Nevada 202420TurnoversAir Force 1Nevada 010Time of possessionAir Force 36:04Nevada 23:5636:0423:56
Team totalsAir ForceNevada
Total yards455411
Passing5 of 13, 92 yds18 of 31, 224 yds
Rushing70 for 363 yds35 for 187 yds
First downs2420
Third down8 of 185 of 15
Fourth down4 of 41 of 2
Turnovers10
Penalties8 for 80 yds5 for 41 yds
Time of possession36:0423:56

Air Force leaders

  • Passing Liam Szarka 5 of 12, 92 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Liam Szarka 33 for 171 yds, 2 TD; Rocco Conti 11 for 77 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Simon Kibbee 2 for 53 yds; Adam Hrynciw 1 for 21 yds

Nevada leaders

  • Passing Carter Jones 18 of 30, 224 yds
  • Rushing Herschel Turner 11 for 111 yds, 2 TD; Dominic Kelley 13 for 60 yds
  • Receiving Donnie Cheers 1 for 50 yds; Gary Givens III 3 for 43 yds

No rain through the game

67° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Mackay Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4OTNevada favoredAir Force favored0%Win chanceNevadaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4OTNevada favoredAir Force favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Overtime11:07 p.m.
Air Force 36, Nevada 33 · Nevada 0% to win
63°
Conti 7-yd TD run, Air Force goes ahead 36-33

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Reno - Tahoe airport, 5.0 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Air Force · 1-1

Rated 80th in our preseason ratings, 87th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 32-38 vs North Dakota State #70 of 668

lost by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog

Air Force lost 32-38 vs North Dakota State. Chance to win started at 53%, low under 1%, high 53%.

W 34-0 vs Duquesne #190 of 668

won by 34 as a 31.5-point favorite

Air Force won 34-0 vs Duquesne. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Nevada · 1-2

Rated 229th in our preseason ratings, 182nd now, up 47 spots.

1-2 in its last three, including a 35-point win over Western Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog.

L 20-27 @ Middle Tennessee #124 of 668

lost by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 7-20 vs Montana State #75 of 668

lost by 13 as a 4.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 7-20 vs Montana State. Chance to win started at 37%, low under 1%, high 38%.

W 49-14 vs Western Kentucky #47 of 668

won by 35 as a 1.5-point underdog

Nevada won 49-14 vs Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 54%, low 54%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Nevada

Wk 1: W 49-14 vs Western Kentucky▲35Western KentuckyWk 2: L 7-20 vs Montana State▼13Montana StateWk 3: L 20-27 at Middle Tennessee▼7Middle Tennessee
  • Wk 1Wvs Western Kentucky49-14
  • Wk 2Lvs Montana State7-20
  • Wk 3Lat Middle Tennessee20-27

Air Force

Wk 1: W 34-0 vs Duquesne▲34DuquesneWk 2: L 32-38 vs North Dakota State▼6North Dakota State
  • Wk 1Wvs Duquesne34-0
  • Wk 2Lvs North Dakota State32-38

Power rating by week

Air Force is rated 6.7 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

1-6-12Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3NevadaAir Force

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Air Force’s rushing EPA against Nevada, 80 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Air Force’s rushing EPA against Nevada’s defense

    80 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Air Force offense, 99th percentile · Nevada defense, 19th

  2. Air Force’s EPA/play against Nevada’s defense

    47 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Air Force offense, 79th percentile · Nevada defense, 32nd

  3. Air Force’s explosive plays against Nevada’s defense

    39 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Air Force offense, 4th percentile · Nevada defense, 43rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Air ForceNevada
EPA/play, offense
Air Force · 79Nevada · 32
EPA/play, defense
Air Force · 70Nevada · 32
Success rate, offense
Air Force · 89Nevada · 26
Success rate, defense
Air Force · 74Nevada · 63
Explosive-play rate, offense
Air Force · 4Nevada · 78
Explosive-play rate, defense
Air Force · 46Nevada · 43
Rush EPA, offense
Air Force · 99Nevada · 74
Rush EPA, defense
Air Force · 73Nevada · 19
Pass EPA, offense
Air Force · 0Nevada · 18
Pass EPA, defense
Air Force · 55Nevada · 39

The series

Air Force leads the series 6-2

8 meetings since 2012 · Air Force has won the last 3

Nevada wonAir Force won2012: Air Force by 172013: Nevada by 32014: Air Force by 72017: Air Force by 32018: Nevada by 32021: Air Force by 22022: Air Force by 282024: Air Force by 320122024
  • 2024Air Force 22-19Nevada lost 19-22 vs Air Force. Chance to win started at 59%, low 5%, high 79%.
  • 2022Air Force 48-20Nevada lost 20-48 at Air Force. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 11%.
  • 2021Air Force 41-39
  • 2018Nevada 28-25Nevada won 28-25 at Air Force. Chance to win started at 44%, low 44%, high better than 99%.
  • 2017Air Force 45-42

Each line is Nevada’s chance to win through that meeting. Nevada is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Nevada fans are in a better mood than Air Force fans (50th vs 17th among FBS fanbases), even with Air Force favored.

50-50Model 32% · Line 36%Nevada fans · 50thAir Force fans · 17thAir ForceNevada

Air Force favored by 4.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Air Force by 4.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The total rose 2 points.

opened 48.5now 50.5

Total: 48.5 → 50.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 64° at kickoff.

Air Force at Nevada · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Mackay Stadium, Reno

  • 64°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 100weather score, Ideal

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 4 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed.

  • 4:30 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 6 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 7:30 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
  • 8 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Nevada is worth +3.8 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 42nd percentile.

47% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (20-23 home, 16-33 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.9 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 4,615 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 801 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Mountain West standings