Montana State 20-7 Nevada (Sep 12, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Montana State · Nevada

Montana State3-020

Nevada1-17Final

Sat, Sep 12 · Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nev. · Crowd 21,679

Montana State beat Nevada 20-7.

We had Montana State favored. It won.

Next: Montana State beat Central Connecticut 35-30, Sat Sep 19

Next: Nevada lost to Middle Tennessee 27-20, Sat Sep 19

Top comment in the game thread

CW FOR THE LOVE OF GOD INTERVIEW CHOATE AND ASK HIM WHAT WE'RE ALL WANTING TO KNOW

Q3 13:10 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Montana State a 75% chance, and the closing betting line (Montana State was a 4.5-point favorite) put it at 64%.

Favored the whole way: Montana State never fell below 62%.

Nevada never had better than a 38% chance.

FinalMontana State 20-7 NevadaMontana State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: gusts to 38 mph

The play that swung it

1Q1 12:05Lamson 24-yd TD pass to Steel, Montana State goes ahead 7-0airport gusts to 35 mphMontana State 64% → 77% (+13)

The play that swung it

1Q1 12:05Lamson 24-yd TD pass to Steel, Montana State goes ahead 7-0airport gusts to 35 mphNevada 36% → 23% (−13)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 6:15Montana State scores a touchdown to extend their lead over NevadaOh no we suck againr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:09Nevada fans demand Choate bench Duncan after Thomas intercepts passFire Choate, total joke No reason Duncan is out therer/CFB game threadINTERVIEW CHOATE! WE NEED ANSWERSr/CFB game thread
Q3 13:10Quoted at the top of the page.“Man, I wish they’d replace Duncan at QB” *monkey paw curls*r/CFB game thread
Q4 4:49Montana State forces fumble on Nevada pass to keep lead with 4:49 leftFlagship university why are you down?!?!r/CFB game thread

Montana State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Montana State -4.5), at 63% for Montana State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Nevada or Montana State flair (79 and 42); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. A 38 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 98% of games since 2018. Measured at Reno - Tahoe airport, 5.0 miles away. Full conditions below.

Every drive

Montana State scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Nevada on 1 of its 11.

Montana State’s drives are teal, Nevada’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“oh BROTHER this guy STINKS”

A fan of another team

When fans got loud

Loud

Fans saved their loudest stretch for the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was loud; the crowd was quiet.

Box score

Montana State 20, Nevada 7

Montana State covered −4.5 by 8.5. The total, 27, stayed under 51.5.

Team totals	Montana State	Nevada
Total yards	330	349
Passing	15 of 23, 179 yds	19 of 36, 167 yds
Rushing	40 for 151 yds	35 for 182 yds
First downs	21	22
Third down	5 of 13	4 of 13
Fourth down	0 of 0	1 of 4
Turnovers	0	4
Penalties	13 for 125 yds	9 for 86 yds
Time of possession	32:42	27:18

Montana State leaders

Passing Justin Lamson 15 of 23, 179 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Adam Jones 25 for 86 yds, 1 TD; Justin Lamson 9 for 30 yds
Receiving Taco Dowler 4 for 44 yds; Dane Steel 3 for 38 yds, 1 TD

Nevada leaders

Passing AJ Bianco 12 of 20, 116 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Dominic Kelley 17 for 84 yds; Herschel Turner 9 for 48 yds
Receiving Marshaun Brown 3 for 44 yds, 1 TD; Donnie Cheers 4 for 39 yds

Wind all game, gusting to 38 mph at the airport

74° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 18 mph from the south, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 38

A 38 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 98% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

September game-day temperatures at Mackay Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 13:03 left9:39 p.m.

Montana State 17, Nevada 0 · Nevada 5% to win

no rain · wind 25 mph from the south, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 38 · 70°

Jones 3-yd run

The same game in two conditions

	Wind 15 mph or more	Lighter wind
Runs and passes	36	37
Share that were passes	58%	35%
Yards per play	7.0	5.6
Turnovers	0	3

The numbers are small: read it as a description, not a result.

How this is counted

Wind means an 11-minute average of 15 mph or more at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Reno - Tahoe airport, 5.0 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Montana State · 2-0

Rated 84th in our preseason ratings, 92nd now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 51-24 vs Butler #222 of 668

won by 27 as a 45.5-point favorite

W 54-0 @ Utah Tech #224 of 668

won by 54 as a 32.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Nevada · 3-9

Rated 229th in our preseason ratings, 203rd now, up 26 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 6-point win over Wyoming as a 6.5-point underdog.

L 17-42 vs UNLV #54 of 667

lost by 25 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 13-7 @ Wyoming #155 of 667

won by 6 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 55-10 vs San José State #150 of 667

won by 45 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 14-51 @ Utah State #107 of 667

lost by 37 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 3-24 vs Boise StateTop 25 #36 of 667

lost by 21 as a 20.5-point underdog

L 22-24 @ New Mexico #115 of 667

lost by 2 as a 14.5-point underdog

L 10-44 vs San Diego State #63 of 667

lost by 34 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 17-20 @ Fresno State #88 of 667

lost by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 16-31 @ Western Kentucky #96 of 667

lost by 15 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 13-14 vs Middle Tennessee #182 of 667

lost by 1 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 20-17 vs Sacramento State #117 of 667

won by 3 as a 9.5-point favorite

L 11-46 @ Penn StateTop 25 #7 of 667

lost by 35 as a 43.5-point underdog

Week by week

Nevada

Wk 1Wvs Western Kentucky49-14

Montana State

Wk 1Wat Utah Tech54-0
Wk 1Wvs Butler51-24

The series

Nevada leads the series 3-0

3 meetings since 1946 · Nevada has won the last 3

1996Nevada 31-7
1947Nevada 55-0
1946Nevada 38-14

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Nevada’s chances here.

Montana State favored by 4.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Montana State by 4.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The total rose 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 70° at kickoff.

Montana State at Nevada · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Mackay Stadium, Reno

70°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
91weather score, Comfortable
Tiedfor the best of the day's 4 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 4 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's four kickoff times. At Mackay Stadium that day, a 12:30 pm kickoff would have scored 72, against 91 at 7:30 pm.

12:30 pm: 72, Rough
4:15 pm: 81, Mixed
6 pm: 89, Mixed
7:30 pm: 91, Comfortable (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Nevada is worth +3.8 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 42nd percentile.

47% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (20-23 home, 16-33 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.9 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 4,615 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 613 miles to get here.

Montana State beats Nevada 20-7