San José State3-94Ken Niumatalolo begins his second season at San José State with a 3-9 losing record and a #109 talent rank, raising questions about sustaining the program's 2020 identity amid a 1.0-win total drop.
San José State plays football in the middle of Silicon Valley, where the smartest money in America has never once been spent on caring about the Spartans — and where a 2020 conference title proved they could win anyway.
Spartan fans know the deal: they're the football program nobody outside San José thinks about, in a valley that worships startups, not Saturdays. They'll remind you they won a Mountain West title when…
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · at USC · Sat Aug 29 · 19:00 UTC
San José State is the Mountain West program whose 2020 7-1 + Mountain West championship under Brent Brennan + CEFCU Stadium identity define what Silicon-Valley-G5-football looks like.
The team enters the season with a moderate level of returning talent and a balanced transfer profile, but faces challenges in key positions like CB and S.
Sammy the Spartan is patient.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Ken Niumatalolo begins his second season at San José State, inheriting a 3-9 losing record and a program defined by its 2020 Mountain West championship run under Brent Brennan.
San José State dropped 26 spots in SP+ — the 3-9 record and #109 talent rank highlight a steep decline, and Ken Niumatalolo’s second season will determine if the 2020 identity can be rekindled.
San José State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Ken Niumatalolo begins his second season at San José State with a 3-9 losing record and a #109 talent rank, raising questions about sustaining the program's 2020 identity amid a 1.0-win total drop.
Jackson Canaan produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
Kyri Shoels is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
San José State dropped 26 spots in SP+ — the steepest decline in the Mountain West this cycle, and Ken Niumatalolo's second season opens with a 3-9 record.
Win total: 5.5 → 4.5 (▼1)
Win total dropped from 5.5 to 4.5 with conference peers flat — the books see something program-specific.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
68th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
San José State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
San José State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 31 of 532 board posts (6%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (86 posts): 10% positive · 78% neutral · 12% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
San José State enters 2026 rated No. 118 in 2025 SP+ (-14.3), down 26 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 200 of 532 board posts (38%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (86 posts): 10% positive · 78% neutral · 12% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Opens Aug 29
vs USC · away
~ our read on style
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
CA leads the 2026 class with 13 commits. National footprint reaching 4 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
87 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
11 games with TV coverage: 1 national broadcast, 9 cable, 1 conference network
Kickoff windows: 1 noon, 2 afternoon, 8 primetime
The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 23% recovered, vs. ~51% expected.
3 of 13 own fumbles recovered themselves; 7 of 10 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Cashing in at a normal clip: 18% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~19% league-wide.
7 interceptions of 38 disrupted passes (31 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2025 only.
The flags have favored them: 84 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 70 committed, 66 yards to the good.
658 penalty yards committed vs. 724 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 12 corners
The split, staged
How San José State fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Texas Tech heroically sacrificed themselves to try and save college football. And we casted them as villains 😞 /s
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 12 corners of the fanbase
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readSan José State fans are split right down the middle, but it's more feel than fact right now.
✓ counted We read 86 posts from San José State fans this week.
Fanbase divided: 47% believers, 53% skeptics
Fan opinions split nearly 50/50 right now · See all divided fanbases →
“Still don’t know why anyone might’ve had high expectations for this team. We lost ALOT of key players from last season. 7 wins seemed like our ceiling. Right now it seems like 5.”— r/CFB
“The first 20 minutes of this game were fun while they lasted. What a catastrophe of a second half.”— r/CFB
“Man I’m just done wasting my energy on such an unserious team. I want to and probably will go on a rant later but why? This team came into the year with sky high expectations and here we are at 3-6 and likely missing out on going bowling unless we go out and win the rest of ou…”— r/CFB
“With about 6:00 left, SJSU should have drained more time off the clock after going down 27-25. The way this season has gone, I think I understand more why teams need running games to win super bowls (see: the 2019 49ers and 2016 Falcons).”— r/CFB
“I'm not asking nor am I expecting him to turn into Cordeiro or Starkel 2.0, but please just have a competent game Eget”— r/CFB
Fanbase Health Index · San José State · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.32 EPA/play | 5 | 11 | 232 / 393 | 59.0 | 3058 #33 FBS | 7.8 | 17 #57 FBS | 9 | 134.1 | 51.0 | 7.5 | 0.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.9 62th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage7.7% bottom 10th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Walker Eget's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.03 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 26 / 50 | 52 | 205 | 4.1 | 0 | 3 | 74.4 | 40.1 | 1.2 | 3.8 | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| -0.49 EPA/play | 7 | 3 | 12 / 32 | 37.5 | 116 | 3.6 | 0 | 4 | 43.0 | 6.9 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| -0.23 EPA/play | 12 | 3 | 3 / 11 | 27.3 | 19 | 1.7 | 0 | 1 | 23.6 | 3.8 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.12 EPA/play | 15 | 8 | 87 | 448 | 5.1 | 7 | 66 | 16.2 | 8.6 | 15.9 | 12.2 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.3 55th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate8.0% 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Steve Chavez-Soto's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.08 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 66 | 340 | 5.2 | 1 | 30 | 3.5 | 7.3 | 18.2 | 16.7 | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight220 lb 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate1.5% bottom 15th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Lamar Radcliffe's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.49 EPA/play | 6 | 4 | 27 | 192 | 7.1 | 2 | 87 | 2.7 | 7.7 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| +0.26 EPA/play | 3 | 4 | 35 | 141 | 4.0 | 2 | 16 | 18.9 | 12.6 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.31 EPA/play | 10 | 12 | 88 | 1297 #1 FBS | 14.7 | 10 #12 FBS | 72 | 26.2 | 22.1 | 35.5% (156/440) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume88 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.3 bottom 26th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Danny Scudero's full player page | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.49 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 59 | 768 | 13.0 | 2 | 43 | 11.6 | 14.9 | 20.7% (91/440) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Money-downRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. lives on the sticks and moves the chains Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume59 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate3.4% bottom 20th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kyri Shoels's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.49 EPA/play | 1 | 11 | 43 | 695 | 16.2 | 3 | 45 | 8.1 | 11 | 16.6% (73/440) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.9 84th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume43 67th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 0th to 77th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.04 EPA/play | 85 | 12 | 33 | 315 | 9.5 | 0 | 44 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 12.3% (54/440) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.2 bottom 35th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.0 bottom 9th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jackson Canaan's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.31 EPA/play | 14 | 8 | 20 | 131 | 6.5 | 1 | 13 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 6.1% (27/440) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception6.8 bottom 5th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume20 bottom 21th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Matthew Coleman's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.06 EPA/play | 39 | 7 | 9 | 84 | 9.3 | 0 | 29 | 2.9 | 5.9 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.07 EPA/play | 13 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 8.6 | 0 | 13 | 5.9 | 3.9 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 1 | 12 | 108 | 58 | 50 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 4 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume108 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.2% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 4 | 12 | 65 | 36 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.6% 76th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume65 69th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Taniela Latu's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 9 | 12 | 63 | 38 | 25 | 5.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume63 67th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Noah McNeal-Franklin's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 26 | 12 | 37 | 26 | 11 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 66th percentile to the 15th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| 18 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | 12 | 59 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.2% 61th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaylen Thomas's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 10 | 53 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2020 class our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 0th to 31st to 66th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Box Safety | 20 | 12 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume51 66th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 88th percentile among FBS Ss to the 39th | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 15 | 12 | 44 | 5 | 3 #56 FBS | 1 | 1 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume44 86th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 42nd percentile to the 94th among FBS CBs | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 9 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate3.6% bottom 28th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Larry Turner-Gooden's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | — | 7 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Caleb Presley's full player page | |||||||
| 32 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 48 | 10 | 8/16 | 50 | 19/19 | 43 | 48 |
| 99 | 7 | 4/7 | 57.1 | 10/11 | 22 | 46 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 49 | 12 | 39 | 1777 | 45.6 | 68 | 14 | 5 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | 7 | 15 | 364 | 24.3 | 0 | 98 | |
| +0.49 EPA/play | 6 | 4 | 6 | 96 | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | 12 | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 | 13 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+11 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #94 | #114 | -14.5 | Central Michigan | L 14–16 130 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #109 | #3 | +36.5 | @Texas | L 7–38 137 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #82 | #167 | -13.5 | Idaho | W 31–28 122 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #99 | #91 | +3.5 | @Stanford | L 29–30 140 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #102 | #112 | -2.5 | New Mexico | W 35–28 131 | 2-3 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #101 | #114 | -1.5 | @Wyoming | L 28–35 146 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #105 | #119 | +3.5 | @Utah State | L 25–30 147 | 2-5 | 1-1 |
| 10 | Nov 2 | #103 | #94 | -2.5 | Hawai'i | W 45–38 140 | 3-5 | 2-1 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #99 | #113 | -6.5 | Air Force | L 16–26 133 | 3-6 | 2-2 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #93 | #206 | -9.5 | @Nevada | L 10–55 119 | 3-7 | 2-3 |
| 13 | Nov 23 | #142 | #57 | +9.5 | @San Diego State | L 3–25 134 | 3-8 | 2-3 |
| 14 | Nov 30 | #137 | #107 | +3.5 | Fresno State | L 14–41 133 | 3-9 | 2-3 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30 | Fresno State | L 14–41 | 227 | 5 | 20:53 | -0.152 | 37.1% | 79.3% | |
| Nov 23 | @San Diego State | L 3–25 | 268 | 2 | 32:38 | +0.008 | 42.1% | 83.9% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 15 | @Nevada | L 10–55 | 270 | 5 | 22:35 | -0.057 | 31.7% | 127.3% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 8 | Air Force | L 16–26 | 435 | 3 | 24:09 | +0.337 | 57.1% | 115.0% | |
| Nov 2 | Hawai'i | W 45–38 | 630 | 0 | 26:50 | +0.475 | 43.5% | 188.7% | Most explosive |
| Oct 18 | @Utah State | L 25–30 | 534 | 1 | 30:13 | +0.284 | 46.8% | 139.3% | One-score loss |
| Oct 11 | @Wyoming | L 28–35 | 383 | 2 | 34:54 | +0.004 | 34.6% | 135.3% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | New Mexico | W 35–28 | 491 | 0 | 33:27 | +0.475 | 52.3% | 132.9% | One-score win |
| Sep 27 | @Stanford | L 29–30 | 525 | 1 | 30:53 | +0.363 | 45.8% | 143.0% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | Idaho | W 31–28 | 420 | 1 | 20:59 | +0.493 | 57.4% | 142.4% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | @Texas | L 7–38 | 273 | 4 | 29:45 | -0.155 | 37.5% | 66.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 30 | Central Michigan | L 14–16 | 383 | 3 | 26:15 | +0.092 | 38.2% | 127.5% | One-score loss |
| Season average (12 games) | 403 | 2.2 | +0.181 | 43.7% | 123.4% | ||||
San José State fields a capable pass-first offense behind a porous defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
45th percentile quality, 69th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 59th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 64th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
68th percentile success on standard downs, 70th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 54th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 65th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.18; 60th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 6: 0.25 raw vs. 0.09 adjusted.
San José State reads strongest in success rate (top 35%) and epa / play (top 44%); the crux lives in epa allowed, where San José State sits at the 20th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · San José State
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · San José State · 2018-present
63% home win rate vs 28% on the road. margin runs +9.8 better at home. CEFCU Stadium seats 30,456, averaging 52% full (15,829 attendance, 25 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Steve Chavez-Soto and Lamar Radcliffe split the carries (86/151 vs 65/151) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Steve Chavez-Soto gets the clock-killing work.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Danny Scudero (WR) and Jackson Canaan (TE) split the targets (148/202 vs 54/202) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 14 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved up 16 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, San José State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.8% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 95-play sample) — mid-pack, 104 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
69°F average kickoff temp; 7% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 69 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
San José State's 2014–2025 record is 57-86. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1933 · 90 seasons · .446 win rate
San José State won the Mountain West championship in 2020. The program plays in a valley where a startup IPO outdraws a Saturday kickoff. In 2025, Ken Niumatalolo's second year went 3-9 — even as the quarterback threw 275 passes without an interception.
Bill Walsh played here. Dick Vermeil played here. Two Hall-of-Fame coaches who shaped the NFL's offensive evolution were Spartans before they were legends, which is the kind of fact that surprises people and shouldn't — San José State has always been a football school inside a region that doesn't particularly want one. The 2020 Mountain West title, won in an empty stadium during a COVID season with the team displaced out of state to practice, is the program's signature proof: the Spartans can win without a crowd, without support, without any of the things programs assume they need.
Brent Brennan left for Arizona in 2024, and Ken Niumatalolo — the winningest coach in Navy history — took over. His second year went 3-9 on late-game collapses and missed kicks, even with quarterback Walker Eget posting a 275-pass, zero-interception run that should have translated into more wins. The Mountain West is reshaping around the Pac-12 raid that took Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, and Colorado State away. San José State enters a smaller, changed league, with a coach under early pressure and a fanbase that is used to being the Bay Area's afterthought.
The 2026 question is whether Niumatalolo can build what he built at Navy — a disciplined, system-coherent program that wins through execution rather than recruiting rank — in a market where the program competes for attention against the most valuable real estate in the world. Walker Eget returning healthy and the defense cleaning up its late-game failures are the two levers that move the answer.
Scrappy and pass-leaning under the current staff — Walker Eget's zero-interception 2025 is the data point that defines the offensive identity: precise, conservative, and designed to protect possession. Niumatalolo's background is option and physical run-game football from his Navy years, and the system is being blended at SJSU; the 2026 scheme will tell more about which direction the program settles. Defensively, the late-game breakdowns of 2025 are the explicit correction target entering fall camp.
San José State 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.16 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 3-9
San José State: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Mountain West Standing · 2025
San José State sits 6th of 10 in the Mountain West at 2-3. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | 4-1 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 3-1 |
| 3 | Hawai'i | 2-2 |
| 4 | Nevada | 2-2 |
| 5 | Air Force | 2-3 |
| 6 | San José State | 2-3 |
| 7 | Wyoming | 1-4 |
| 8 | North Dakota State | 0-0 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | 0-0 |
| 10 | UTEP | 0-0 |
Coaching Era · San José State
Ken Niumatalolo in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2020
Brent Brennan's 2020 7-1 + Mountain West championship + Arizona Bowl championship + #25 final AP — during the COVID-truncated season — was the program's modern peak. The Spartans played the majority of the season at a different stadium due to local-COVID-restrictions but still won the conference. The 2020 run is permanent program identity.
since 1893
San José State sits in the heart of Silicon Valley — the Bay Area technology corridor + the regional academic identity + the modern recruiting reach into California. The Silicon Valley setting + the Spartans' historic 1893 founding make SJSU's institutional positioning unique among Mountain West programs.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
An undersized, displaced (the team practiced out of state during COVID) San José State goes 7-1 and wins the conference — the program's signature triumph
Ken Niumatalolo's second year falls to 3-9 on late-game collapses and missed kicks, gutting the momentum of recent years
Wound
Moment of the Year · San José State · 2025
Week 2 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2024 — loss 39-41 (home). Last 5 postseason: 1-4.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2023–20231 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Bojay Filimoeatu — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
San José State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · San José State · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · San José State
Season Standing · 2025 · 3-9
Coaching Era · San José State
Moment of the Year · San José State · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline