Mountain West · Ken Niumatalolo, year 3 (12-17) · CEFCU Stadium · 30,456 · 16,636 avg in 2026
LastL 10–26 vs Fresno State · Sat Sep 19 · Justin Stearns 1 sacks, 2 TFL, 5 tackles
Nextat Hawai'i · Sat Oct 3 · 11:59 pm ET · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · series 22-21-1, won the last 5
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #151 | #28 | +37✓ | @USC | L 26–42 132 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 1 | Sep 4 | #151 | #92 | +1.5✓ | @Eastern Michigan | W 27–21 145 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 13 | #133 | #223 | -21.5✗ | Cal Poly | W 30–20 147 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 20 | #126 | #55 | +4✗ | Fresno State | L 10–26 138 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Oct 4 | #133 | #81 | @Hawai'i | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Wyoming | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 18 | @UTEP | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Nevada | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | New Mexico | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Northern Illinois | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 15 | @Air Force | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 22 | UNLV | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | North Dakota State |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | Fresno State | L 10–26 | 335 | 4 | 26:08 | -0.167 | 32.9% | 110.7% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | Cal Poly | W 30–20 | 493 | 1 | 31:02 | +0.218 | 48.7% | 105.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 4 | @Eastern Michigan | W 27–21 | 453 | 2 | 29:52 | +0.128 | 33.3% | 157.9% | Most explosive |
| Aug 29 | @USC | L 26–42 | 336 | 0 | 22:45 | +0.216 | 43.9% | 122.2% | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (4 games) | 404 | 1.8 | +0.099 | 39.7% | 124.1% | ||||
Game Week
12 days
until kickoff · at Hawai'i · Sat Oct 3 · 11:59 pm ET
San José State plays football in the middle of Silicon Valley, where the smartest money in America has never once been spent on caring about the Spartans — and where a 2020 conference title proved they could win anyway.
Spartan fans know the deal: they're the football program nobody outside San José thinks about, in a valley that worships startups, not Saturdays. They'll remind you they won a Mountain West title…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-2
✓ measured from 4 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Cooling. 3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
A really good football team is coming to town with a really good coaching staff, … obviously winning is big for our schools and our fans, but if we don’t play well, it doesn’t matter
Next Oct 4
vs Hawai'i · away
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
the open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
San José State's 3-9 record contrasts with its 2020 7-1 Mountain West championship, highlighting the challenge Ken Niumatalolo faces in restoring that identity.
our readdeveloping
Jackson Canaan produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
Kyri Shoels is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Outcome band · San José State · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 82 of 1260 board posts (7%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
More in this tab
San José State is the Mountain West program whose 2020 7-1 + Mountain West championship under Brent Brennan + CEFCU Stadium identity define what Silicon-Valley-G5-football looks like.
Win total: 5.5 → 4.5 (▼1)
Win total dropped from 5.5 to 4.5 with conference peers flat — the books see something program-specific.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
CA leads the 2026 class with 13 commits. National footprint reaching 4 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
87 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median San José State player grew up 313 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to CEFCU Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 98 of 103 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
90th percentile among FBS programs
Cashing in at a normal clip: 21% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~19% league-wide.
4 interceptions of 19 disrupted passes (15 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2026 only.
The flags haven't favored them: 26 penalties committed vs. 20 drawn on opponents, 62 yards behind.
211 penalty yards committed vs. 149 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · San José State · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026