New Mexico beats San José State 21-16
Team pages: New Mexico · San José State
New Mexico beat San José State 21-16. Share this game
We had New Mexico favored. It won.
Next: New Mexico at Nevada, Fri Nov 6 · 9:00 PM ET · New Mexico favored by 9.5
Next: San José State vs Northern Illinois, Sat Nov 7 · 4:00 PM ET · San José State favored by 10
How it swung
The turning point: Weaver intercepted by Brawley at the UNM00 (Q4, 0:11). New Mexico went from 85% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave New Mexico an 87% chance, and the closing betting line (New Mexico was a 15.5-point favorite) put it at 89%.
Favored the whole way: New Mexico never fell below 71%.
San José State never had better than a 28% chance.
San José State · Q4 10:47Blocked field goalQ4 4:53
New Mexico 21-16 San José StateNew Mexico wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.San José State 16-21 New MexicoSan José State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:234th and 5Weaver incomplete to Clark, turnover on downsNew Mexico 86% → 97% (+11)
- 2Q4 0:11InterceptionWeaver intercepted by Brawley at the UNM00New Mexico 85% → 100% (+15)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:234th and 5Weaver incomplete to Clark, turnover on downsSan José State 14% → 3% (−11)
- 2Q4 0:11InterceptionWeaver intercepted by Brawley at the UNM00San José State 15% → 0% (−15)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (New Mexico -15.5), at 83% for New Mexico (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
New Mexico scored on 3 of its 12 drives; San José State on 3 of its 10.
New Mexico’s drives are teal, San José State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From San José State’s side
San José State’s best moment: Tagovailoa-Amosa 89-yd interception return TD, cuts it to 21-16 (Q4 10:47). It lifted San José State’s win chance by 11 points.
What it cost
New Mexico’s chance to make the playoff rose from 6% to 7%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
New Mexico plays at Nevada on Fri Nov 6 with a 7% chance to make the playoff. San José State plays vs Northern Illinois on Sat Nov 7 with a 1% chance to win the conference.
Box score
New Mexico 21, San José State 16
San José State covered +15.5 by 10.5. The total, 37, stayed under 43.5.
| Team totals | New Mexico | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 342 | 238 |
| Passing | 10 of 15, 111 yds | 16 of 23, 190 yds |
| Rushing | 43 for 231 yds | 35 for 48 yds |
| First downs | 16 | 15 |
| Third down | 3 of 10 | 5 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 3 | 0 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 2 |
| Penalties | 6 for 51 yds | 4 for 40 yds |
| Time of possession | 31:27 | 28:33 |
New Mexico leaders
- Passing Toa Faavae 9 of 14, 101 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Rushing Kiefer Sibley 12 for 102 yds; Scottre Humphrey 16 for 87 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Cade Keith 2 for 30 yds, 1 TD; Tripp Walsh 2 for 22 yds
San José State leaders
- Passing Luke Weaver 16 of 23, 190 yds, 2 INT
- Rushing Jabari Bates 22 for 63 yds; Viliami Teu 5 for 7 yds
- Receiving Carson Clark 8 for 91 yds; Anthony Ivey 2 for 44 yds
66° at the start
66° at kickoff · rain amounts not reported at this airport
October game-day temperatures at CEFCU Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at San Jose/reid/hillv airport, 2.7 miles away, and San Jose International A airport, 4.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
New Mexico · 6-1
Rated 73rd in our preseason ratings, 47th now, up 26 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 42-18 @ New Mexico State No. 149 of 668 teams
won by 24 as an 11.5-point favorite
Last three games
San José State · 4-4
Rated 151st in our preseason ratings, 138th now, up 13 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
San José State
- Wk 3Lvs Fresno State10-26
- Wk 5Wat Hawai'i20-16
- Wk 6Lvs Wyoming13-16
- Wk 7Wat UTEP24-11
- Wk 8Lat Nevada13-28
New Mexico
- Wk 3Lat Oklahoma6-14
- Wk 4Wat New Mexico State42-18
- Wk 5Wvs UTEP61-7
- Wk 7Wat Hawai'i21-10
- Wk 8Wvs North Dakota State21-16
Power rating by week
New Mexico is rated 9.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: San José State’s success rate against New Mexico, 92 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
San José State’s success rate against New Mexico’s defense
San José State offense, 8th percentile · New Mexico defense, 100th
New Mexico’s passing EPA against San José State’s defense
New Mexico offense, 11th percentile · San José State defense, 79th
San José State’s explosive plays against New Mexico’s defense
San José State offense, 43rd percentile · New Mexico defense, 3rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
San José State leads the series 16-5-1
22 meetings since 1954 · San José State has won the last 4
- 2025San José State 35-28
- 2023San José State 52-24
- 2020San José State 38-21
- 2019San José State 32-21
- 2016New Mexico 48-41
Each line is San José State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
San José State fans are in a better mood than New Mexico fans (95th percentile vs 77th among FBS fanbases), even with New Mexico favored.
New Mexico favored by 15.5 · Total 43.5
How games like this usually go
New Mexico by 15.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 274 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward New Mexico.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +14.5 → +15.5 · Total: 42.5 → 43.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
San José State is worth +3.3 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 33rd percentile.
56% at home, 32% on the road against FBS opponents (24-19 home, 15-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.4 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 863 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- San José State7th2-2
- New Mexico3rd3-0