San José State at Nevada
Usual during the game: 53°, between 39° and 65° in about 7 in 10 games. Altitude 4,615 ft above sea level.
Airport reading near the stadium35 games since 2016 · How we measure
Nevada (2‑4) hosts San José State (4‑3). The market has Nevada favored by 6.5. The model gives Nevada a 62% shot. Nevada’s passing offense is at the 19th percentile; San José State’s pass defense is at the 66th.
How they got here
Last three games
San José State · 4-3
Rated 151st in our preseason ratings, 128th now, up 23 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Hawai'i as a 2.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Nevada · 2-4
Rated 229th in our preseason ratings, 154th now, up 75 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 20-27 @ Middle Tennessee #124 of 668
lost by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: Nevada’s passing EPA against San José State, 47 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Nevada’s passing EPA against San José State’s defense
Nevada offense, 19th percentile · San José State defense, 66th
San José State’s success rate against Nevada’s defense
San José State offense, 34th percentile · Nevada defense, 63rd
San José State’s explosive plays against Nevada’s defense
San José State offense, 29th percentile · Nevada defense, 44th
What’s at stake
San José State
- San José State needs 2 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 94% to get there with a win here, 72% with a loss.
- Ken Niumatalolo is ahead of Brent Brennan’s year-3 pace (4-3 vs. 3-4) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
Nevada
- Nevada needs 4 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 28% to get there with a win here, 7% with a loss.
- Nevada hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2019.
The series
Nevada leads the series 21-8
29 meetings since 1948 · Nevada won the last meeting
- 2025Nevada 55-10
- 2024San José State 35-31
- 2022San José State 35-28
- 2021Nevada 27-24
- 2020San José State 30-20
Each line is Nevada’s chance to win through that meeting. Nevada is 2-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
San José State
The chip · vs the national mediaSpartan fans know the deal: they're the football program nobody outside San José thinks about, in a valley that worships startups, not Saturdays. They'll remind you they won a Mountain West title when the whole sport was looking elsewhere, and that showing up at all is the loyalty test.
What this game touches
The 2025 unraveling. After the high of the 2020 title and a bowl-level baseline, San José State went 3-9 (2-6 Mountain West) in 2025 — Ken Niumatalolo's second year — a season defined by late-game collapses and missed kicks, even as quarterback Walker Eget threw 275 passes without an interception and a fanbase wondered how it came apart so fast.
Nevada
The chip · vs the national mediaFans point out that half of college football borrowed the Pistol from a chalkboard in Reno, and that nobody outside the Mountain West remembers the offense was theirs — or that they once put a future Super Bowl quarterback on the biggest stage.
What this game touches
Two straight three-win years. Jeff Choate went 3-10 in 2024 and 3-9 in 2025 — two seasons at the bottom of the Mountain West for a program that once finished ranked and beat Boise State. The fear in Reno is that the great era is receding into history.
Best players
San José State
- Dylan Lee (LB) · 65 tackles
- Naseri Danielson (LB) · 50 tackles
- Caleb Womack (CB) · 48 tackles
Nevada
- EJ Smith (LB) · 72 tackles
- Dylan Labarbera (EDGE) · 50 tackles
- Jeremy Naborne (LB) · 48 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
San José State fans are in a better mood than Nevada fans (83rd vs 43rd among FBS fanbases), even with Nevada favored.
Nevada favored by 6.5 · Total 46.5
Nevada by 6.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Nevada’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Mackay Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 90
San José State at Nevada · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 5 pm ET · Mackay Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Mackay Stadium: noon Saturdays score 90, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 90.
- noon: 90, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Nevada is worth +3.8 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 42nd percentile.
47% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (20-23 home, 16-33 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.9 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
4,615 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 190 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Nevada
- Wk 2Lvs Montana State7-20
- Wk 3Lat Middle Tennessee20-27
- Wk 4Lvs Air Force33-36
- Wk 6Wat UTEP30-13
- Wk 7Lat North Dakota State17-31
San José State
- Wk 2Wvs Cal Poly30-20
- Wk 3Lvs Fresno State10-26
- Wk 5Wat Hawai'i20-16
- Wk 6Lvs Wyoming13-16
- Wk 7Wat UTEP24-11
Power rating by week
San José State is rated 1.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Nevada.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −5.5 → −6.5 · Total: 45.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Nevada7th1-2
- San José State5th2-1
Last meeting in our History pages
- Nevada 27, San José State 24Nov 6, 2021
Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2015.