Wyoming beats San José State 16-13 in overtime
Team pages: Wyoming · San José State
Wyoming beat San José State 16-13 in overtime. Share this game
We had San José State favored. Wyoming won.
How it swung
The turning point: Sandvik 21-yd field goal, Wyoming goes ahead 16-13 (OT). Wyoming went from 49% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Wyoming a 37% chance, and the closing betting line (Wyoming was a 4.5-point underdog) put it at 36%.
Down to a 13% chance in the third quarter, Wyoming still won.
Up to an 87% chance in the third quarter, San José State still lost.
Wyoming 16-13 San José State
Wyoming wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.San José State 13-16 WyomingSan José State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The four plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:4035-yd puntWyoming 30% → 68% (+38)
- 2OTHughes 6-yd runWyoming 62% → 38% (−24)
- 3OTHarris 1-yd runWyoming 25% → 49% (+24)
- 4OTSandvik 21-yd field goal, Wyoming goes ahead 16-13Wyoming 49% → 100% (+51)
The four plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:4035-yd puntSan José State 70% → 32% (−38)
- 2OTHughes 6-yd runSan José State 38% → 62% (+24)
- 3OTHarris 1-yd runSan José State 75% → 51% (−24)
- 4OTSandvik 21-yd field goal, Wyoming goes ahead 16-13San José State 51% → 0% (−51)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (San José State -4.5), at 30% for Wyoming (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Wyoming scored on 4 of its 10 drives; San José State on 3 of its 10.
Wyoming’s drives are teal, San José State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From San José State’s side
San José State’s best moment: Hughes 6-yd run (OT). It lifted San José State’s win chance by 24 points.
The winner fell to 12%.
What it cost
San José State’s chance to win the conference fell from 6% to 4%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Wyoming 16, San José State 13
Wyoming covered +4.5 by 7.5. The total, 29, stayed under 42.5.
| Team totals | Wyoming | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 345 | 326 |
| Passing | 16 of 24, 114 yds | 26 of 38, 251 yds |
| Rushing | 53 for 231 yds | 28 for 75 yds |
| First downs | 21 | 20 |
| Third down | 3 of 15 | 4 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Penalties | 6 for 60 yds | 3 for 15 yds |
| Time of possession | 37:42 | 22:18 |
Wyoming leaders
- Passing Tyler Hughes 16 of 24, 114 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Tyler Hughes 27 for 92 yds; Samuel Harris 13 for 67 yds
- Receiving Markell Holman 4 for 40 yds; Jake Wilson 7 for 39 yds, 1 TD
San José State leaders
- Passing Luke Weaver 26 of 38, 251 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Jabari Bates 16 for 69 yds, 1 TD; Viliami Teu 2 for 9 yds
- Receiving Carson Clark 8 for 91 yds; Jerry Mcclure 5 for 54 yds
72° at the start
72° at kickoff · rain amounts not reported at this airport
October game-day temperatures at CEFCU Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at San Jose/reid/hillv airport, 2.7 miles away, and San Jose International A airport, 4.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Wyoming · 2-3
Rated 111th in our preseason ratings, 136th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 17-point win over Hawai'i as a 2.5-point underdog.
Last three games
San José State · 3-2
Rated 151st in our preseason ratings, 125th now, up 26 spots.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 4-point win over Hawai'i as a 2.5-point underdog.
Week by week
San José State
- Wk 1Lat USC26-42
- Wk 1Wat Eastern Michigan27-21
- Wk 2Wvs Cal Poly30-20
- Wk 3Lvs Fresno State10-26
- Wk 5Wat Hawai'i20-16
Wyoming
- Wk 1Lat Colorado State13-35
- Wk 2Wvs Northern Colorado21-13
- Wk 3Lat Central Michigan10-24
- Wk 4Wvs Hawai'i27-10
- Wk 5Lat North Dakota State0-28
Power rating by week
San José State is rated 0.6 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Wyoming’s explosive plays against San José State, 75 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Wyoming’s explosive plays against San José State’s defense
Wyoming offense, 0th percentile · San José State defense, 75th
Wyoming’s passing EPA against San José State’s defense
Wyoming offense, 13th percentile · San José State defense, 65th
Wyoming’s success rate against San José State’s defense
Wyoming offense, 65th percentile · San José State defense, 26th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Wyoming leads the series 8-7
15 meetings since 1959 · Wyoming won the last meeting
- 2025Wyoming 35-28
- 2024San José State 24-14
- 2022San José State 33-16
- 2021San José State 27-21
- 2018Wyoming 24-9
Each line is San José State’s chance to win through that meeting. San José State is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
San José State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (75th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
San José State favored by 4.5 · Total 42.5
How games like this usually go
San José State by 4.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Wyoming.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −6 → −4.5 · Total: 43.5 → 42.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
San José State is worth +3.2 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 33rd percentile.
57% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (24-18 home, 15-31 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.9 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 912 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- San José State 20, Wyoming 17Nov 25, 2017
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- San José State3rd1-0
- Wyoming6th1-1