Wyoming beats Northern Illinois 41-23
Team pages: Northern Illinois · Wyoming
Wyoming beat Northern Illinois 41-23. Share this game
We had Wyoming favored. It won.
Next: Northern Illinois vs Hawai'i, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Northern Illinois underdog by 4
Next: Wyoming vs Air Force, Fri Oct 23 · 9:00 PM ET · Wyoming underdog by 5.5
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Wyoming a 68% chance, and the closing betting line (Wyoming was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.
Favored the whole way: Wyoming never fell below 72%.
Northern Illinois never had better than a 27% chance.
Wyoming 41-23 Northern Illinois
Wyoming wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Northern Illinois 23-41 WyomingNorthern Illinois lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Wyoming -7), at 75% for Wyoming (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Wyoming scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Northern Illinois on 5 of its 10.
Wyoming’s drives are teal, Northern Illinois’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Wyoming’s chance to win the conference rose from 1% to 2%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Wyoming plays vs Air Force on Fri Oct 23 with a 2% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Wyoming 41, Northern Illinois 23
Wyoming covered −7 by 11. The total, 64, went over 42.5.
| Team totals | Northern Illinois | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 392 | 510 |
| Passing | 24 of 44, 216 yds | 16 of 19, 196 yds |
| Rushing | 29 for 176 yds | 41 for 314 yds |
| First downs | 21 | 25 |
| Third down | 4 of 14 | 5 of 9 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | 8 for 90 yds | 3 for 23 yds |
| Time of possession | 29:55 | 30:05 |
Northern Illinois leaders
- Passing Taron Dickens 24 of 44, 216 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Telly Johnson Jr. 16 for 139 yds, 1 TD; Elijah Porter 4 for 18 yds
- Receiving DeAree Rogers 11 for 89 yds; La'Don Bryant 4 for 66 yds, 1 TD
Wyoming leaders
- Passing Tyler Hughes 16 of 19, 196 yds
- Rushing Tyler Hughes 12 for 183 yds, 4 TD; Markell Holman 14 for 80 yds
- Receiving Eric Richardson 5 for 77 yds; Kyle Frendt 3 for 61 yds
No rain and calm
68° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 14 mph from the west-southwest, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 22
The usual here around this date is 49°, with about 7 in 10 games between 39° and 60°.
October game-day temperatures at War Memorial Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Laramie/gen. Brees airport, 5.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Northern Illinois · 0-5
Rated 101st in our preseason ratings, 149th now.
Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.
Last three games
Wyoming · 3-3
Rated 111th in our preseason ratings, 142nd now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over San José State as a 4.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Wyoming
- Wk 2Wvs Northern Colorado21-13
- Wk 3Lat Central Michigan10-24
- Wk 4Wvs Hawai'i27-10
- Wk 5Lat North Dakota State0-28
- Wk 6Wat San José State16-13
Northern Illinois
- Wk 1Lat Iowa0-40
- Wk 2Lvs Illinois State24-28
- Wk 3Lat Arizona17-42
- Wk 4Lat Georgia State14-35
- Wk 6Lvs Air Force7-28
Power rating by week
Wyoming is rated 0.5 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Wyoming’s passing EPA against Northern Illinois, 87 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Wyoming’s passing EPA against Northern Illinois’s defense
Wyoming offense, 13th percentile · Northern Illinois defense, 100th
Wyoming’s success rate against Northern Illinois’s defense
Wyoming offense, 65th percentile · Northern Illinois defense, 1st
Wyoming’s explosive plays against Northern Illinois’s defense
Wyoming offense, 0th percentile · Northern Illinois defense, 53rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Wyoming leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2016 · Wyoming has won the last 2
- 2021Wyoming 50-43
- 2016Wyoming 40-34
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Wyoming fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (80th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Wyoming favored by 7 · Total 42.5
How games like this usually go
Wyoming by 7, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Northern Illinois.
The total rose 4 points.
Spread: −7.5 → −7 · Total: 38.5 → 42.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Wyoming is worth +4.8 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 63rd percentile.
60% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (24-16 home, 16-33 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.7 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
7,218 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 867 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Wyoming 40, Northern Illinois 34Sep 3, 2016
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Wyoming4th2-1
- Northern Illinois8th0-1