1dynasty move
Iowa climbs into dynasty territory with top 14% power rating.
Ferentz's 26-11 run has Iowa in dynasty territory for the first time since 2021, but the market's 7.5-win projection suggests skepticism about sustaining that grind.
Iowa9-4CFP #23Latest
The read on Iowa depends entirely on who you ask.
belief cooled ↓ 15.7vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Mixed
51/100 · 353 mentions
~ our readGrounding
backed by facts
10% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 27 pts
~ our readThe model
#19
CFB Zeitgeist · +9.0
✓ measured1Hope-Doping·Offseason
Iowa wins the same way every autumn — a suffocating defense, a punter who flips the field, and a final score in the twenties — and the Hawkeyes have stopped pretending they're sorry about any of it.
Coaches Poll#24
Hawkeye fans are tired of the highlight shows treating their brand of football as a punchline; they'll tell you the punt is a weapon and a 13-10 win counts the same as a 49-42 one, and they relish mak…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Iowa
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production49%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#42 nationally247 composite 710.0
Portal Additions15Primary repair: WR
Portal Losses8Primary pressure: RB
Draft Loss7Heavy NFL Draft loss (7)
Recruiting Reload#26Development class
Sin 4 - Anthony Hawkinsout 2 - Koen EntringerNeed Filled
WRin 3 - Tony Diazout 0Need Filled
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 1 - L.J. Phillips Jr.out 2 - Jaziun PattersonEven
current room: 209 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 2 - Lance Ingoldout 1 - Brian AllenUpgrade
DLin 2 - Emmanuel Olagbajuout 0Need Filled
current room: 280 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Pin 1 - Tanner Philpottout 1 - Rhys DakinEven
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Northern Illinois · Sat Sep 5 · 20:15 UTC
The experience
Iowa is the program where defense, punting, and 13-10 wins compound into 8-10 wins a year, decade after decade.
Offense: SoftRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlTempo: Methodical, ball-control
Iowa's 2026 Season Balances Roster Volatility with Strategic Recruitment
Iowa enters the 2026 season with a moderate continuity level and a development-class recruiting cohort, aiming to leverage its net portal importer status for competitive balance.
- Roster reloadIowa faces a heavy NFL Draft loss of 7 players but benefits from a freshman injection score of "high" and a portal addition score of 36.001, indicating strong incoming talent.
- ScheduleThe team's base scenario projects a 9-4 record with a bowl game appearance, supported by a high confidence band and a schedule that includes a season-opening matchup against Northern Illinois.
Data as of 2026-08-01
·
Validated against program evidence
Herky's stoic. He'll let the defense speak.
Iowa · the story right now
5 storylines developing
What Iowa's program standing is really about
the open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
dynastythis cycle~readnew
Ferentz's 26-11 run has Iowa in dynasty territory for the first time since 2021, but the market's 7.5-win projection suggests skepticism about sustaining that grind.
what happenedIowa has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 14% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 24% a year ago. ✓ fact
the contexta 26-11 record over the last three regular seasons
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Iowa enters 2025 at No. 12 in SP+ — the 9-4 record under Ferentz's sixth season suggests the ceiling is higher than fan unease implies.
what happenedIowa enters 2025 rated No. 12 in SP+ (+19.7). ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
DJ Vonnahme produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Jaziun Patterson sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Kamari Moulton does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
Died downIowa's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Active arcs
Cooling
Iowa lands three-star running back Keyon Thomas
How will these new recruits fit into Iowa's future lineup?
Cooling
MSU football picks up commitment from 3-star Colorado TE prospect - Spartans…
Which of these prospects will commit to Michigan State?
Cooling
Iowa High School Football Standout Headed To Boise State - Sports Illustrated
How will these commitments shape the future of Iowa high school football?
The Offseason Ledger · Iowa
3 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Jaylen Raynor named Iowa State QB1
SI already calling him undervalued in Big 12 QB rankings — Raynor locking in as Iowa State's QB1 with seven Hawkeye starters gone to the draft is the kind of quiet confirmation that makes that take look smarter by the week.
- News
Iowa OC Tim Lester's home damaged in fire
Lester running the new-look Iowa offense while dealing with this — seven starters gone and a rebuild to manage, and now this lands on top of it.
- News
Cy-Hawk rivalry extended
Cy-Hawk on the books past the current deal — seven drafted starters gone and a development class rebuilding from scratch, Ferentz needs the home schedule to carry water while the roster catches up.
Transfer portal snapshot
+8.0 net portal points
(raw ledger: +21.4 — unweighted, no position adjustment)WR+10.3
need not filled
S+9.4
need not filled
DL+7.0
need not filled
RB-3.7
CB-3.5
low confidence
IOL+3.5
low confidence
QB-3.3
low confidence
EDGE+3.2
P-2.5
K+1.0
low confidence
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Tradon Bessinger
#156 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 11 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Darion Jones
#170 national
★★★★☆
Julian Manson
#200 national
↓
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
28th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market↓
28th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(60th among FBS)
(60th among FBS)
Market 32pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 7.5
CFP championship#26 in field+10000
Big Ten title#8 in market+4000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Iowa · Next-Season Outcome Band
Iowa · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 6-7
Base 9-4
Ceiling 11-2
floor6-7Bowl game.
base9-4Bowl game.
ceiling11-2Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · Iowa · Program power Confidence
Iowa is moving up in the ratings, and the data says it's real.
Iowa has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 14% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 24% a year ago. It is a 26-11 record over the last three regular seasons. Three-year power ratings tell a structural story — the room is split on whether the schedule will confirm it.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers3 bull takes
The saga so far~1 month old
2 weeks agoIowa OC Tim Lester's home damaged in fire — Reported
4 weeks agoJaylen Raynor named Iowa State QB1 — Reported
4 weeks agoHappy 7-3 to all who celebrate! Today we remember the game in which Iowa beat South Dakota State 7-3 with 2 safeties and a field goal — r/CFB
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Ferentz's 26-11 run has Iowa in dynasty territory for the first time since 2021, but the market's 7.5-win projection suggests skepticism about sustaining that grind.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of climbing the power tiers is the expectation tax: the same season that looked like a breakout last year now reads as a disappointment. Watch whether the schedule lets the run actually show up on the field.
Source of record: Iowa has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 14% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 24% a year ago — a 26-11 record over the last three regular seasons.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers3 bullish/momentum items -- the case it's working.›
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
“Jimmy Rogers believes Iowa State can win. And he wants his team to see it”
Sioux City Journal · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Pair of Iowa football OL named to Outland Trophy watch list”
Hawkeyes Wire · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Cyclones Football Start Fall Camp With Some Unsettled Positions”
westerniowatoday.com · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Burning questions for Iowa State football offensive position gro” — the real counter.›
The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
“Burning questions for Iowa State football offensive position groups”
The Des Moines Register · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
Following now · Iowa · Season outlook Confidence
Iowa is a ranked program entering 2025. The tape backs it.
Iowa enters 2025 rated No. 12 in SP+ (+19.7). A top-25 rating means the tape backed the ranking over three seasons. Now the schedule tests whether it still does. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers3 bull takes
💬 fans: 28% volume · negative overall
The saga so far~1 month old
2 weeks agoIowa OC Tim Lester's home damaged in fire — Reported
4 weeks agoJaylen Raynor named Iowa State QB1 — Reported
4 weeks agoHappy 7-3 to all who celebrate! Today we remember the game in which Iowa beat South Dakota State 7-3 with 2 safeties and a field goal — r/CFB
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Iowa enters 2025 at No. 12 in SP+ — the 9-4 record under Ferentz's sixth season suggests the ceiling is higher than fan unease implies.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Iowa enters 2025 rated No. 12 in SP+ (+19.7).
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers3 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Jimmy Rogers believes Iowa State can win. And he wants his team to see it”
Sioux City Journal · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Pair of Iowa football OL named to Outland Trophy watch list”
Hawkeyes Wire · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Cyclones Football Start Fall Camp With Some Unsettled Positions”
westerniowatoday.com · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Burning questions for Iowa State football offensive position gro” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“Burning questions for Iowa State football offensive position groups”
The Des Moines Register · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
💬The boards28% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (69%).›
This event was in 182 of 640 board posts (28%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"In listening to Lester's interviews this Summer about the QB battle, there is a certain irony. Lester has said that he needs the passing game to be more explosive this season"
HawkeyeNation ~ fan take
"We return only 10 starters, lost all our specialists, and don't have a starting QB. This is some decent respect shown to KF and his two coordinators. College football preseaso"
HawkeyeNation ~ fan take
Board health this week (347 posts): 13% positive · 53% neutral · 34% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak W3Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Opens Sep 5
vs Northern Illinois · at home
Season line7.5 winsover -145
SoftRun-heavy, ground-controlMethodical, ball-control
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Wisconsin
Mixed-2
Heartland Trophy
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
18
IA · 5MI · 3FL · 2MN · 2GA · 1IL · 1NE · 1SD · 1+2 more
IA leads the 2026 class with 5 commits. National footprint reaching 10 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
89 signees across 21 states, 2023-2026. IA leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] USC Defeats Iowa 26-21
[Postgame Thread] Iowa Defeats UMass 47-7
[Postgame Thread] Iowa Defeats UAlbany 34-7
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Voter spread
59 of 66 AP voters have them ranked, final AP ballot (2025) — from #14, David Briggs (Toledo Blade), to #25, Garland Gillen (WVUE-TV FOX 8). 7 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
National spotlight
11 games with TV coverage: 5 national broadcast, 1 ESPN, 3 cable, 2 conference network
Kickoff windows: 3 noon, 5 afternoon, 3 primetime
Fumble luck
27% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — below the ~49% league baseline.
3 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 2 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
22% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
11 interceptions of 49 disrupted passes (38 deflected, 11 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
39 penalties committed, 50 drawn on opponents — a near-even trade all season.
392 penalty yards committed vs. 410 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Iowa
51
Δ -15.7 vs last wk
353
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Wave"
— Iowa fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence2 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 12 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
LLocked On
WWide Right Natty Lite
BBlack Heart Gold Pants
CCampus paper
HHawkeyeNation
BBluesky
The split, staged
Warmest corner+0.00
Local
least sour cohort our read
vs
Coldest corner−0.00
Bettors
most skeptical cohort our read
How Iowa fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 12 corners of the fanbase
skeptical
buying in
Local−0.07
Bettors−0.12
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
554 mentions · 8 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checkevidence-driven
~ our readIowa fans are down on the program, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 347 posts from Iowa fans this week.
Cy-Hawk
Fan mood across the 2025 season, both sides — our read
Hover a week for both sides’ game
Shaded weeks show whose fanbase read warmer, our measure of what fans actually said, not a poll.
What fans are saying
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
player performanceLimited signal that season
fans believe the receivers struggle to create separation
Our line gives him 5+ seconds and none of our receivers can get open against an FCS team. Lmfao fuck me
Ya I think a major issue for us currently is that our receivers aren't getting open. Why that is, I'm not sure. But I think that's a major reason we look like shit, Gronowski is having to hold it too long
Based on 3 comments from 2 posters across 3 threads · Aug 30, 2025 · via CFB
job securityWidely held among fans
fans believe Kirk Ferentz is consistent in producing low-scoring wins and has a long-standing, successful tenure
Iowa has had that 7-3 game and the infamous 6-4 victory with a fuck you safety. The years pass and times changes but Kirk Ferentz getting low scoring wins is inevitable.
Kirk Ferentz enters his 28th season at the helm of Iowa, the longest tenured coach in FBS, and winningest coach in Big Ten history.
Based on 2 comments from 1 poster across 2 threads · Jul 19, 2026–Jul 28, 2026 · via CFB
coaching decisionWidely held among fans
fans believe Tim Lester is on the verge of becoming a head coaching candidate
Iowa will have a top 40 scoring offense and top 80 total offense leading Tim Lester to be offered interviews for head coach jobs that he will turn down.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 24, 2026 · via CFB
rivalryLimited signal that season
fans believe Iowa's games are consistently close
Nah, it'll still be a close game, these rivalry matches with Iowa State are always close.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 31, 2025 · via CFB
Show all 6
program directionWidely held among fans
fans believe Kirk Ferentz is uniquely responsible for Iowa's consistent success
I've always thought Ferentz was the best "coach" in the B10. The reason is how much he gets out of middle of the road talent. Iowa consistently gets more out of less than any program imo.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 6, 2026 · via Josh Pate's College Football Show
program directionLimited signal that season
fans think transferred QBs perform worse statistically elsewhere
Is this Iowa now? Spending every off-season hyping up the latest transfer QB as the savior of the program just for each QB to be worse than the last one?
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 31, 2025 · via CFB
Season storylines
Week 8
Week 7
“I agree with both of your comments, the hire was indicative of chasing a big name rather than the right coach for the player you have. AK would probably do better with Gronowski.”— r/CFB
Week 2
“I refuse to believe this is possible. Its hard enough to get 60 yards of offense.”— r/CFB
Week 9
“We held these fuckers to 20 and had a lead in the 4th and they have the audacity to not rank us, they’ve dismantled everyone else besides our defense which just makes me positive about these last 4”— r/CFB
Week 1
“Yeah but he about doubled his yardage from week 1. He’s on pace to throw for 163,000 yards in game 12.”— r/CFB
Forum Pulse
via HawkeyeNation
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial11 posts
Diehard fan boards10 posts
News & campus coverage9 posts
CFB analyst takes10 posts
Rent free · r/cfb fan posts, last season
Iowa fans this offseason 28% of posts bring up another team▼2pp quieter#21 of 43 saltiest · mostly about Minnesota
Fanbase Health Index · Iowa · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Iowa · high confidenceGrowing (66)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 9-4 (69% win rate)70
Volume — 1460 effective signal-N93
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.02 — quiet35
From the booth
Fanbase Voice
400 fan mentions
Doomers
vs the 28 highest-volume fanbases - 2026 season
Your Vocabulary Clustercamp / fall camp / fall
campfall campfall
with 19 other fanbasesKey stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#47 / 138 · 67th pct29.3
Pts allowed/game#8 / 138 · 95th pct16.1
Total yards/gm#108 / 136 · 21st pct320.1
Rush yards/gm#44 / 136 · 68th pct176.9
Pass yards/gm#127 / 136 · 7th pct143.2
Yards allowed/gm#6 / 136 · 96th pct284.2
Rush yds allowed/gm#19 / 136 · 87th pct111.5
Sacks#69 / 136 · 50th pct25
Interceptions#54 / 136 · 61st pct11
3rd-down conv#34 / 136 · 76th pct43.5%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team4161320.1/gm5.27/play#108 / 136 · 21st pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#13 / 18 · 33rd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp3694284.2/gm4.77/play#6 / 136 · 96th pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#2 / 18 · 94th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Rush yards
Team2300176.9/gm2.91/play#44 / 136 · 68th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#4 / 18 · 83rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp1449111.5/gm1.87/play#19 / 136 · 87th pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Rush carries
Team50438.8/gm#35 / 136 · 75th pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp40230.9/gm#13 / 136 · 91st pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Rush TDs
Team282.2/gm#37 / 136 · 74th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#7 / 18 · 67th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp120.9/gm#15 / 136 · 90th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#4 / 18 · 83rd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Net pass yards
Team1861143.2/gm2.36/play#127 / 136 · 7th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#17 / 18 · 11th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp2245172.7/gm2.90/play#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Pass attempts
Team28622.0/gm#127 / 136 · 7th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#17 / 18 · 11th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp37228.6/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#11 / 18 · 44th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Completions
Team18013.8/gm#122 / 136 · 11th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#17 / 18 · 11th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp21516.5/gm#30 / 136 · 79th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Pass TDs
Team120.9/gm#117 / 136 · 15th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#16 / 18 · 17th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp90.7/gm#2 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 69 · 99th pct#2 / 18 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team123.7123.7#103 / 136 · 25th pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#13 / 18 · 33rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp112.2112.2#11 / 136 · 93rd pct#6 / 69 · 93rd pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Interceptions thrown
Team80.6/gm#88 / 136 · 36th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#8 / 18 · 61st pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp110.8/gm#76 / 136 · 45th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#12 / 18 · 39th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Sacks (def)
Team251.9/gm#69 / 136 · 50th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#11 / 18 · 44th pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct
Opp181.4/gm#21 / 136 · 85th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
Tackles for loss
Team624.8/gm#93 / 136 · 32nd pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#12 / 18 · 39th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Opp554.2/gm#20 / 136 · 86th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
First downs
Team22717.5/gm#106 / 136 · 23rd pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#13 / 18 · 33rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp20415.7/gm#6 / 136 · 96th pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
3rd-down conv
Team705.4/gm#60 / 136 · 57th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#10 / 18 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp564.3/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#6 / 69 · 93rd pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
3rd-down att
Team16112.4/gm#108 / 136 · 21st pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#9 / 18 · 56th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp16512.7/gm#35 / 136 · 75th pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#8 / 18 · 61st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
4th-down conv
Team120.9/gm#79 / 136 · 43rd pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#10 / 18 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp50.4/gm#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 18 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
4th-down att
Team181.4/gm#110 / 136 · 20th pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#14 / 18 · 28th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp201.5/gm#27 / 136 · 81st pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#6 / 18 · 72nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Time of possession
Team409:0031:28/gm#36 / 136 · 74th pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp371:0028:32/gm#50 / 136 · 64th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#6 / 18 · 72nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#47 / 135 · 66th pct22/27 (81.5%)
Extra points41/42
Punting#62 / 136 · 55th pct43.6 avg · 42 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team131.0/gm#103 / 136 · 25th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#9 / 18 · 56th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp141.1/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#8 / 18 · 61st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Fumbles lost
Team50.4/gm#91 / 136 · 34th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#8 / 18 · 61st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp30.2/gm#10 / 136 · 93rd pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
INT return TDs
Team10.1/gm#36 / 135 · 74th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#6 / 18 · 72nd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 18 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
INT return yards
Team16112.4/gm#39 / 136 · 72nd pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp312.4/gm#13 / 136 · 91st pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#2 / 18 · 94th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Punt ret yds
Team60946.8/gm#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 18 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp806.2/gm#42 / 136 · 70th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#9 / 18 · 56th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team30.2/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 18 · 100th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 18 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team56043.1/gm#32 / 136 · 77th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#4 / 18 · 83rd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp39230.2/gm#71 / 136 · 49th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#10 / 18 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Kick ret TDs
Team10.1/gm#7 / 136 · 96th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#1 / 18 · 100th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 18 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team39230.2/gm#132 / 136 · 4th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 18 · 17th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp41031.5/gm#4 / 136 · 98th pct#4 / 69 · 96th pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Other
Penalties (opp)#3 / 136 · 99th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct503.8/gm
Punt ret (opp)#17 / 136 · 88th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#6 / 18 · 72nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct80.6/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#22 / 167 · 87th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct0.10.0/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#8 / 18 · 61st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct50.4/gm
Punt returns#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#4 / 18 · 83rd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct221.7/gm
Recruiting rating#38 / 138 · 73rd pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#11 / 18 · 44th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct208.316.0/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#41 / 136 · 71st pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#9 / 18 · 56th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct80.6/gm
Interceptions (def)#54 / 136 · 61st pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#7 / 18 · 67th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct110.8/gm
Kick returns#56 / 136 · 60th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#8 / 18 · 61st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct221.7/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#61 / 143 · 58th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#7 / 18 · 67th pct0.20.0/gm
H1 epa per play#63 / 162 · 62nd pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#10 / 18 · 50th pct0.20.0/gm
H2 epa per play#71 / 142 · 51st pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#11 / 18 · 44th pct0.20.0/gm
Fourth down go rate#94 / 138 · 33rd pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#11 / 18 · 44th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct0.30.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#100 / 136 · 27th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#14 / 18 · 28th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct272.1/gm
Fumbles recovered#119 / 136 · 13th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#16 / 18 · 17th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct30.2/gm
Red zone pass rate#125 / 154 · 19th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#15 / 18 · 22nd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct0.30.0/gm
Penalties#135 / 136 · 1st pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#18 / 18 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct393.0/gm
First down pass rate#196 / 215 · 9th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#18 / 18 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct0.30.0/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off43.5%#34 / 136 · 76th pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#9 / 18 · 56th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Def33.9%#23 / 136 · 84th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
4th-down conversion
Off66.7%#17 / 136 · 88th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#1 / 18 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Def25.0%#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 18 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Turnover margin#66 / 136 · 52nd pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#12 / 18 · 39th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct+0.08/gm
Sack rate (def)#64 / 136 · 54th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#11 / 18 · 44th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct6.7%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team463.5/gm#58 / 167 · 66th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#11 / 18 · 44th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp322.5/gm#48 / 166 · 72nd pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Red zone score %
Team89.1%89.1%#15 / 167 · 92nd pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp81.2%81.2%#105 / 166 · 37th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#15 / 18 · 22nd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Points / drive
Team2.30.2/gm#41 / 167 · 76th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#10 / 18 · 50th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp1.30.1/gm#12 / 166 · 93rd pct#7 / 69 · 91st pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Yards / drive
Team40.43.1/gm#78 / 167 · 54th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#12 / 18 · 39th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp36.82.8/gm#36 / 166 · 79th pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.60.5/gm#76 / 167 · 55th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#12 / 18 · 39th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp6.30.5/gm#39 / 166 · 77th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#4 / 18 · 83rd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team12.8%12.8%#71 / 167 · 58th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#12 / 18 · 39th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp27.3%27.3%#1 / 166 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 18 · 100th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#16 / 145 · 90th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 18 · 100th pct+8.1%+8.1%
Havoc rate
Team17.1%17.1%#45 / 140 · 69th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct
Opp10.9%10.9%#11 / 140 · 93rd pct#4 / 69 · 96th pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct
Standard-downs success
Team51.4%51.4%#39 / 154 · 75th pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#9 / 18 · 56th pct
Opp45.8%45.8%#53 / 172 · 70th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct
Passing-downs success
Team26.5%26.5%#121 / 153 · 22nd pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#18 / 18 · 6th pct
Opp25.4%25.4%#15 / 149 · 91st pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#2 / 18 · 94th pct
Line yards / carry
Team3.33.3#15 / 143 · 90th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct
Opp2.92.9#85 / 155 · 46th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#10 / 18 · 50th pct
Stuff rate
Team13.4%13.4%#11 / 143 · 93rd pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#1 / 18 · 100th pct
Opp18.6%18.6%#76 / 155 · 52nd pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct
Power success rate
Team85.0%85.0%#2 / 137 · 99th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 18 · 100th pct
Opp69.0%69.0%#66 / 141 · 54th pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#10 / 18 · 50th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off62.9%#58 / 136 · 58th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#11 / 18 · 44th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def57.8%#24 / 136 · 83rd pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#2 / 18 · 94th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Yards / attempt
Off6.5#106 / 136 · 23rd pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#12 / 18 · 39th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def6.0#14 / 136 · 90th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#3 / 18 · 89th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Yards / completion
Off10.3#122 / 136 · 11th pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#16 / 18 · 17th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Def10.4#20 / 136 · 86th pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#8 / 18 · 61st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Yards / carry#55 / 136 · 60th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#9 / 18 · 56th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct4.6
Yards / play#103 / 136 · 25th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#15 / 18 · 22nd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct5.27
Scoring margin#17 / 136 · 88th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#5 / 18 · 78th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct+13.2/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.31 EPA/play | 11 | 13 | 166 / 262 | 63.4 | 1741 | 6.6 | 10 | 7 | 126.4 | 62.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage33.2% 84th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry4.2 82th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mark Gronowski's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.07 EPA/play | 9 | 3 | 11 / 21 | 52.4 | 107 | 5.1 | 1 | 1 | 101.4 | 35.5 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.11 EPA/play | 28 | 11 | 170 | 878 #65 FBS | 5.2 | 5 | 34 | 9.1 | 18.7 | 10.7 | 13.7 | 9.1% (23/253) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 37th percentile to the 83rd among FBS RBs | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.14 EPA/play | 4 | 10 | 60 | 296 | 4.9 | 0 | 17 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 10 | 13.3 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.5 57th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Jaziun Patterson's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.17 EPA/play | 26 | 10 | 49 | 285 | 5.8 | 3 | 43 | 10.4 | 8.8 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry7.0 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate6.1% 76th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Xavier Williams's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.03 EPA/play | 25 | 8 | 37 | 169 | 4.6 | 0 | 24 | 5.6 | 11.2 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| -0.24 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 28 | 98 | 3.5 | 0 | 13 | 2.2 | 5.9 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Move TE · +0.72 EPA/play | 81 | 10 | 29 | 434 | 15.0 | 3 | 51 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 15.0% (38/253) | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception15.8 90th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume29 72th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.33 EPA/play | 5 | 11 | 24 | 278 | 11.6 | 1 | 44 | 14.8 | 11.4 | 15.4% (39/253) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Jacob Gill's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.84 EPA/play | 2 | 10 | 16 | 261 | 16.3 | 0 | 45 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 8.7% (22/253) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception18.2 89th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sam Phillips's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.83 EPA/play | 15 | 8 | 15 | 219 | 14.6 | 2 | 29 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 8.3% (21/253) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.5 bottom 16th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Reece Vander Zee's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.20 EPA/play | 21 | 13 | 20 | 151 | 7.5 | 1 | 28 | 1.3 | 6 | 10.3% (26/253) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Return threatReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. a house-call threat every time he fields it Consensus All-American — 1st team on at least three of the five NCAA selectors. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.1 bottom 12th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 12th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kaden Wetjen's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.74 EPA/play | 7 | 6 | 8 | 91 | 11.4 | 1 | 42 | 7.7 | 6.7 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.26 EPA/play | 48 | 8 | 9 | 76 | 8.4 | 0 | 24 | 3.9 | 3.6 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.4 bottom 24th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Zach Ortwerth's full player page | |||||||||||
| -0.03 EPA/play | 6 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 2 | 20 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 7.5% (19/253) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.72 EPA/play | 88 | 6 | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 | 17 | 4.9 | 4.3 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception6.5 bottom 11th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Hayden Large's full player page | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 95 | 13 | 37 | 17 | 6.5 | 5 | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.6% 62th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Aaron Graves's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 49 | 13 | 35 | 21 | 10 | 7.5 #34 FBS | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.6% 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ethan Hurkett's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 48 | 12 | 25 | 14 | 9 | 6 #74 FBS | 8 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate36.0% 99th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Max Llewellyn's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 91 | 11 | 19 | 8 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate2.6% bottom 11th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 56th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 84th | |||||||
| Versatile End | 90 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate3.1% bottom 7th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Brian Allen's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 96 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Bryce Hawthorne's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 44 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Kenneth Merrieweather's full player page | |||||||
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thumper | 43 | 13 | 83 | 42 | 41 | 12 #51 FBS | 4 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate14.5% 76th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume83 87th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 0th percentile among FBS LBs to the 89th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 36 | 10 | 44 | 24 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume44 bottom 41th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.3% bottom 16th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden Montgomery's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 41 | 9 | 41 | 21 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 0th percentile to the 32nd among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 12 | 12 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Jaxon Rexroth's full player page | |||||||||
| 33 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 46 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 1 | 13 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume76 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 27th percentile to the 62nd among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Box Safety | 4 | 13 | 73 | 3 | 0 | 3.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume73 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 0th to 13th to 60th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Rover | 6 | 13 | 71 | 7 | 3 #56 FBS | 5.5 | 1 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.9% 60th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 12th to 96th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 2 | 10 | 47 | 10 #20 FBS | 1 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate21.3% 96th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Hybrid Nickel to Centerfielder, his CFB Index score went from the 20th percentile among FBS Ss to the 78th | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 8 | 12 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate17.6% 90th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 80th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 54th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.7% bottom 43th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaylen Watson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Rashad Godfrey Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 26 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 18 | 13 | 22/27 | 81.5 | 41/42 | 107 | 58 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 9 | 12 | 42 | 1833 | 43.6 | 65 | 18 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.20 EPA/play | 21 | 13 | 16 | 476 | 29.8 | 1 | 100 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.20 EPA/play | 21 | 13 | 21 | 563 | 26.8 | 3 | 95 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Xavier Nwankpa
DB
76.0 tot (def)
2.
Koen Entringer
DB
73.0 tot (def)
3.
Zach Lutmer
DB
71.0 tot (def)
4.
Kamari Moulton
RB
878 yds (rush)
5.
Jayden Montgomery
LB
44.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
24
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Zach Lutmer
S
#23 of 544
Ethan Hurkett
EDGE
#38 of 420
Max Llewellyn
EDGE
#47 of 420
Aaron Graves
EDGE
#51 of 420
Karson Sharar
LB
#72 of 583
Kamari Moulton
RB
#59 of 326
+18 more
Iowa · 2025 schedule & results9-4Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 53% · 7 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #27 | #190 | -39.5 | UAlbany | W 34–7 69 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #42 | #35 | +3.5 | @Iowa State | L 13–16 120 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #31 | #165 | -35.5 | Massachusetts | W 47–7 120 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #33 | #62 | -2 | @Rutgers | W 38–28 126 | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #29 | #13 | +9.5 | Indiana | L 15–20 127 | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #38 | #62 | -4.5 | @Wisconsin | W 37–0 118 | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #28 | #13 | -3 | Penn State | W 25–24 123 | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #29 | #47 | -7 | Minnesota | W 41–3 109 | 6-2 | 4-1 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #27 | #2 | +4.5 | Oregon | L 16–18 118 | 6-3 | 4-2 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #21 | #14 | +6.5 | @USC | L 21–26 116 | 6-4 | 4-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #20 | #96 | -17.5 | Michigan State | W 20–17 130 | 7-4 | 5-3 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | #28 | #64 | -5.5 | @Nebraska | W 40–16 122 | 8-4 | 6-3 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Dec 31 | #22 | #13 | +3 | Vanderbilt (N) | W 34–27 | 9-4 | 6-3 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 | Vanderbilt | W 34–27 | — | — | — | +0.256 | 45.2% | 153.1% | Most explosive |
| Nov 28 | @Nebraska | W 40–16 | 379 | 1 | 33:20 | +0.312 | 48.4% | 130.1% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 22 | Michigan State | W 20–17 | 301 | 2 | 29:40 | -0.086 | 40.6% | 88.7% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 15 | @USC | L 21–26 | 320 | 1 | 30:44 | +0.274 | 48.2% | 113.9% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | Oregon | L 16–18 | 239 | 2 | 33:20 | +0.062 | 36.5% | 123.9% | One-score loss |
| Oct 25 | Minnesota | W 41–3 | 274 | 0 | 33:10 | +0.044 | 40.7% | 104.1% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 18 | Penn State | W 25–24 | 313 | 1 | 23:48 | +0.055 | 38.8% | 123.9% | One-score win |
| Oct 11 | @Wisconsin | W 37–0 | 319 | 1 | 31:15 | +0.198 | 45.0% | 96.9% | Blowout win |
| Sep 27 | Indiana | L 15–20 | 284 | 2 | 32:42 | -0.001 | 32.9% | 127.7% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | @Rutgers | W 38–28 | 346 | 0 | 28:54 | +0.297 | 57.1% | 89.0% | Best success rate |
| Sep 13 | Massachusetts | W 47–7 | 435 | 0 | 32:04 | +0.279 | 47.9% | 119.4% | Blowout win |
| Sep 6 | @Iowa State | L 13–16 | 214 | 1 | 31:08 | +0.044 | 36.5% | 79.0% | One-score loss |
| Aug 30 | UAlbany | W 34–7 | 358 | 1 | 36:37 | +0.254 | 55.9% | 88.0% | |
| Season average (13 games) | 315 | 1.0 | +0.153 | 44.1% | 110.6% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Iowa fields a limited run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Iowa actually scores
44th percentile quality, 40th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Iowa's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 39th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 34th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Iowa hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
74th percentile success on standard downs, 19th on passing downs — a 55-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Iowa by half
1st-half offense ranks 62nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 51st — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Iowa's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.15; 62nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.25 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Iowa reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 4%) and epa allowed (top 11%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Iowa sits at the 2nd percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Iowa
Most Similar Programs · IowaReads Like
AkronTier 3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateTier 3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizonaTier 3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Iowa · 2018-present
Above-Average
77% home win rate vs 63% on the road. margin runs +6.3 better at home. Kinnick Stadium seats 69,250, averaging 100% full (69,250 attendance, 28 games reported).
Home41-12Away24-14
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson split the carries (170/230 vs 60/230) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jaziun Patterson produces in bigger chunks.
Kamari MoultonJaziun Patterson
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 2 claims, 1 survived, 1 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jacob Gill (WR) and DJ Vonnahme (TE) split the targets (39/77 vs 38/77) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Jacob GillDJ Vonnahme
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 2 claims, 0 survived, 2 falsified
What changed
Iowa’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Brian Ferentz (2017–2023) → Tim Lester (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 13 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
4th-down go rate
Season by season
How Iowa’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Offense: Tim Lester (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 23% → 2025: 28% · 5-pt range · #139 of 171 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 33% → 2025: 29% · 4-pt range · #164 of 171 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 13% → 2025: 33% · 21-pt range · #59 of 171 · a typical amount
Defense: Phil Parker (2014–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2014: 41% → 2025: 28% · 19-pt range · #15 of 189 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2014: 35% → 2025: 29% · 19-pt range · #37 of 189 · more than most
4th-down go rate
2014: 40% → 2025: 33% · 34-pt range · #7 of 188 · more than most
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Iowa’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.2% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 150-play sample) — mid-pack, 55 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=150 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 64.7%
Venue texture
61°F average kickoff temp; 5% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 81 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Iowa's 2014–2025 record is 105-48. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
Cy-Hawk
70 meetings since 1895 See the whole history →
Heat trajectory
Week-by-week rivalry heat isn't tracked yet for this matchup — check back as the 2026-27 season approaches and real fan-intel signal accumulates.
Fan Heat Index
Who's more worked up right now
Cross-fanbase rivalry sentiment for this matchup hasn't been measured yet this week — both sides show as neutral until real signal comes in.
Iowa
Awaiting
Iowa State
Awaiting
Iowa
—
Iowa State
—
THE LAST 5 · year-by-year
- L 2025 Loss 13–16
- L 2024 Loss 19–20
- W 2023 Win 20–13
- L 2022 Loss 7–10
- W 2021 Win 27–17
All-Time Record
681-561-35
since 1894 · 132 seasons · .533 win rate
HOME
428-224-18
AWAY
232-316-16
NEUTRAL
21-21-1
1890s
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
Iowa went 9-4 in 2025, beat Vanderbilt by seven, and lost four regular-season games to top-20 teams by a combined fifteen points. This is what Iowa always is — close enough to taste everything, never quite enough to take it.
Kirk Ferentz has coached Iowa since 1999. He is the longest-tenured head coach in FBS football, and the program he has built in that time is one of the most precisely reproduced things in the sport: a punishing defense, a punter who flips the field, a run game that grinds until the second half, and a final score that tends to live in the twenties. Iowa wins the same way. Iowa's opponents know it. Iowa wins anyway. The Hawkeyes have stopped pretending this is anything other than the plan.
The 2025 season added FCS-champion transfer QB Mark Gronowski to the mix — a splash move, by Iowa standards — and produced the textbook Ferentz year: a 37-0 shutout of Wisconsin, four narrow losses to legitimate top-20 opponents, a bowl win. Gronowski's eligibility is now up. The eternal question in Iowa City returns with him gone: can the formula raise its ceiling? The 2025 losses — a combined fifteen points to four ranked teams — are a ledger that reads two ways. Hawkeye fans read it as hard luck, near misses, the toll of playing the hardest schedule the right way. Everyone else reads it as the ceiling.
Entering 2026, Iowa has held its floor for a quarter century. The Wave — when the whole stadium turns to the children's hospital after the first quarter and waves to the kids watching from the windows — is the most beautiful tradition in American sports, and it is purely Iowa City's. The program can hold this floor forever. The open question is whether one season, with the right roster, the formula finally breaks through. Ferentz will be coaching his twenty-eighth year. The math says it's possible. The history says watch the defense.
How they play
Iowa runs grind-it-out, defense-first football on purpose and without apology — a punishing run game, elite special teams anchored by a generational punter pipeline, and a defense built to win 13-10 in November. The passing game is functional, not the feature. Field position is the strategy. Opponents' speed-era offenses are the problem Iowa's scheme is specifically designed to make boring. The fanbase is educated on exactly how this works, and they watch it with the patient pride of people who have been right more Saturdays than anyone credits.
Steady
Iowa 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.07 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 4.
CFP Era · Iowa
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4 · CFP #23
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4 · CFP #23Ranked (25-16)
Iowa: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Big Ten Standing · 2025
6th in the Big Ten
Iowa sits 6th of 18 in the Big Ten at 6-3. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana | 11-0 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 9-1 |
| 3 | Oregon | 8-2 |
| 4 | Michigan | 7-2 |
| 5 | USC | 7-2 |
| 6 | Iowa | 6-3 |
| 7 | Illinois | 5-4 |
| 8 | Minnesota | 5-4 |
| 9 | Washington | 5-4 |
| 10 | Nebraska | 4-5 |
| 11 | Northwestern | 4-5 |
| 12 | Penn State | 3-6 |
| 13 | UCLA | 3-6 |
| 14 | Rutgers | 2-7 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 2-7 |
| 16 | Maryland | 1-8 |
| 17 | Michigan State | 1-8 |
| 18 | Purdue | 0-9 |
Coaching Era · Iowa
Coaching Era · IowaKirk Ferentz
Kirk Ferentz into year 13 — a multi-decade era by modern CFB standards.
13
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
The Iowa Wave
since 2017
70,585 Hawkeye fans turn to face the children at the University of Iowa Stead Family Children's Hospital, visible above the south end zone, and wave. The hospital patients wave back. Started in 2017, immediately became the most-emotionally-charged crowd moment in CFB. Visiting teams now participate. Inverts the usual relationship between stadium and surrounding community.
Pink Visitor's Locker Room
since 1979
Hayden Fry painted the visiting locker room at Kinnick pink in 1979. The theory: pink is calming, and calm football players don't play well. Still pink. The NCAA reviewed the practice — Fry won by arguing it's not discrimination, it's just pink. The pink room is the program's most-cited prank-as-identity moment.
Heroes Game with Nebraska
since 2011
Iowa-Nebraska on Black Friday is the calendar marker for two Big Ten programs that geographically should be rivals and have only formally been so since 2011. The Heroes Game name honors first responders and military. The post-Thanksgiving slot is a CFB ratings anchor.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Kinnick's 1939 Heisman
Nile Kinnick wins the Heisman; the stadium is named for him
2017
The first Iowa Wave
Kinnick Stadium turns to wave at the children's hospital — a tradition is born
2025
Four losses by 15 points
Four narrow defeats to top-20 teams — the perennial 'close, never quite' summed up in one season
Heartbreak
Moment of the Year · Iowa · 2025
Moment of the Year · Iowa · 2025Postseason · Won 34-27 at Vanderbilt
Week 18 of 2025. Beat a top-13 opponent on the road.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2025): 5-6
Most recent: 2025 — win 27-34 (away). Last 5 postseason: 2-3.
20252024202320222021
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–2026
NFL Draft PipelineStrong
22 picks last 5 cycles. 3 first-round picks. Recruits with NFL ambitions notice.
22
picks · 3 R1
#13
Lukas Van Ness
Defensive End · 2023 · Green Bay · #64/387 final season
#18
Jack Campbell
Inside Linebacker · 2023 · Detroit
#25
Tyler Linderbaum
Center · 2022 · Baltimore
#23 all-time · 26 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Iowa’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014–2016 · Greg Davis2017–2023 · Brian Ferentz2024–2025 (ongoing) · Tim Lester
Defense2014–2025
2014–2025 (ongoing) · Phil Parker
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
Average 2025 continuity (49% back) — offense anchors it, qb room is the stress point.
The portal upgraded the WR room but opened a hole at P.
OL took the biggest 2026 draft hit (3 picks) — the reload watch is on.
Iowa converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.
r/cfb moments
6.9k
[Postgame Thread] Iowa Defeats South Dakota State 7-3
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