Iowa 16-13 Iowa State (Sep 12, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Iowa State · Iowa

Iowa State1-113

No. 21 Iowa2-016Final

Sat, Sep 12 · Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa · Crowd 69,250

No. 21 Iowa beat Iowa State 16-13.

We had Iowa favored. It won.

Next: Iowa State beat Bowling Green 55-7, Sat Sep 19

Next: Iowa beat Northern Iowa 55-0, Sat Sep 19

Top comment in the game thread

Lmao that ref was like "JUST SHUT UP AND LISTEN YOU'LL LIKE IT"

Q4 0:09 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Iowa a 95% chance, and the closing betting line (Iowa was a 14-point favorite) put it at 87%.

Favored the whole way: Iowa never fell below 52%.

Iowa State led by 10 but, as a 14-point underdog, never had better than a 48% chance.

FinalIowa 16-13 Iowa StateIowa wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The play that swung it

1Q4 12:32Special teams55-yd punt, Vander Zee returns it 11Iowa 60% → 73% (+13)

The play that swung it

1Q4 12:32Special teams55-yd punt, Vander Zee returns it 11Iowa State 40% → 27% (−13)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q3 5:39Fans condemn Iowa State for dirty play on punt returner"Hold his head onto the turf" yes this is clean ballr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:15Iowa fans celebrate Buhr's field goal and praise the holder's save on a bad snapWe all have stage 4 cancer after this game.r/CFB game threadThat snap was a bit scaryr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:09Quoted at the top of the page.Lol, that ref telling the crowd to wait for him to finish like a patient parent was funny. GG, congrats Hawkeyesr/CFB game thread

Iowa’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Iowa -14), at 88% for Iowa (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Iowa or Iowa State flair (1,611 and 1,253); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Iowa’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Q2, 7:51Raynor 4-yd TD pass to BenettiIowa State leads 10-0Q2, 7:51 · Iowa 0, Iowa State 10▼13%Iowa’s chance to win, 65% to 52%▼13%Iowa’s chance to win, 65% to 52%Watch from this playBig Ten Football

Every drive

Iowa scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Iowa State on 3 of its 12.

Iowa’s drives are teal, Iowa State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Iowa State’s side

Iowa State’s best moment: Raynor 4-yd TD pass to Benetti, Iowa State leads 10-0 (Q2 7:51). It lifted Iowa State’s win chance by 13 points.

How Iowa State fans took it: “There’s a second left, but not really” r/CFB game thread

“This game is going to be my 13th reason why”

An Iowa fan

How fans reacted

Steady

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Iowa fans

refs“If these refs could stop missing 15 yard penalties that would be phenomenal”

Iowa State fans

raynor“As is often the case, our line isnt good enough to be expected to win that kind of battle. Id rather utilize Raynor and give him run pass options.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, clock, call, back.

Box score

Iowa 16, Iowa State 13

Iowa State covered +14 by 11. The total, 29, stayed under 42.5.

Team totals	Iowa State	Iowa
Total yards	255	284
Passing	10 of 19, 117 yds	21 of 30, 191 yds
Rushing	34 for 138 yds	29 for 93 yds
First downs	9	13
Third down	4 of 13	5 of 15
Fourth down	0 of 0	0 of 1
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	6 for 45 yds	4 for 25 yds
Time of possession	30:18	29:42

Iowa State leaders

Passing Jaylen Raynor 10 of 19, 117 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Aiden Flora 19 for 89 yds; Jaylen Raynor 8 for 18 yds
Receiving Omari Hayes 3 for 39 yds; Carter Pabst 1 for 24 yds

Iowa leaders

Passing Hank Brown 21 of 30, 191 yds
Rushing Kamari Moulton 15 for 57 yds; Hank Brown 8 for 22 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Tony Diaz 8 for 95 yds; Reece Vander Zee 3 for 32 yds

No rain and calm

76° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 7 mph from the northwest, gusts to 13

September game-day temperatures at Kinnick Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 0:10 left9:01 p.m.

Iowa State 13, Iowa 10 · Iowa 77% to win

no rain · wind 6 mph from the northwest · 69°

19-yd punt

Measured at Iowa City airport, 1.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

This is Cy-Hawk — see the full head-to-head history →

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Iowa State · 8-4

Rated 162nd in our preseason ratings, 159th now.

Three straight wins, including a 3-point win over TCU as a 7.5-point underdog.

W 20-13 @ Oklahoma State #155 of 667

won by 7 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 38-14 vs Kansas #67 of 667

won by 24 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 20-17 @ TCUTop 25 #33 of 667

won by 3 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 19-24 vs Arizona StateTop 25 #43 of 667

lost by 5 as an 8.5-point favorite

L 27-41 vs BYUTop 25 #31 of 667

lost by 14 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 17-24 @ Colorado #53 of 667

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 30-38 @ CincinnatiTop 25 #41 of 667

lost by 8 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 39-14 vs ArizonaTop 25 #76 of 667

won by 25 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 24-16 @ Arkansas State #123 of 667

won by 8 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 16-13 vs IowaTop 25 #40 of 667

won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 55-7 vs South Dakota #110 of 667

won by 48 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 24-21 @ Kansas StateTop 25 #38 of 667

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

Last three games · 2025 season

Iowa · 9-4

Rated 13th in our preseason ratings, 13th now.

Three straight wins, capped by a 7-point win over Vanderbilt as a 3-point underdog.

W 34-27 @ VanderbiltTop 25 #16 of 667

won by 7 as a 3-point underdog

W 40-16 @ NebraskaTop 25 #77 of 667

won by 24 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 20-17 vs Michigan State #73 of 667

won by 3 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 21-26 @ USCTop 25 #14 of 667

lost by 5 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 16-18 vs OregonTop 25 #2 of 667

lost by 2 as a 4.5-point underdog

W 41-3 vs Minnesota #60 of 667

won by 38 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 25-24 vs Penn StateTop 25 #18 of 667

won by 1 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 37-0 @ Wisconsin #75 of 667

won by 37 as a 4.5-point favorite

L 15-20 vs IndianaTop 25 #18 of 667

lost by 5 as an 8.5-point underdog

W 38-28 @ Rutgers #55 of 667

won by 10 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 47-7 vs Massachusetts #174 of 667

won by 40 as a 35.5-point favorite

L 13-16 @ Iowa StateTop 25 #50 of 667

lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 34-7 vs UAlbany #177 of 667

won by 27 as a 39.5-point favorite

Week by week

Iowa

Wk 1Wvs Northern Illinois40-0

Iowa State

Wk 1Wvs Southeast Missouri State38-10

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Iowa State’s success rate against Iowa, 78 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Iowa State’s success rate against Iowa’s defense
Iowa State offense, 14th percentile · Iowa defense, 92nd
Iowa State’s rushing EPA against Iowa’s defense
Iowa State offense, 48th percentile · Iowa defense, 97th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Iowa StateIowa

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Iowa leads the series 47-23

70 meetings since 1895 · Iowa State has won the last 2

2025Iowa State 16-13
2024Iowa State 20-19
2023Iowa 20-13
2022Iowa State 10-7
2021Iowa 27-17

Each line is Iowa’s chance to win through that meeting. Iowa is 4-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Iowa fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (58th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Iowa favored by 14 · Total 42.5

How games like this usually go

Iowa by 14, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward Iowa.

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 71° at kickoff.

Iowa State at Iowa · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City

71°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
100weather score, Ideal
Tiedfor the best of the day's 5 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's five kickoff times. At Kinnick Stadium that day, a 3:15 pm kickoff would have scored 92, against 100 at 6 pm.

11 am: 100, Ideal
2:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
3:15 pm: 92, Comfortable
6 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
6:45 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Iowa is worth +2.6 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 24th percentile.

75% at home, 65% on the road against FBS opponents (39-13 home, 26-14 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.4 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 110 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Iowa State 16, Iowa 13Sep 6, 2025

Our History pages cover 10 of their meetings since 2015.

How it swung

Watch the plays

Every drive

From Iowa State’s side

How fans reacted

Two crowds, one game

Box score

Iowa State leaders

Iowa leaders

No rain and calm

Jump to

Before kickoff

Recent games

Week by week

Iowa

Iowa State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Iowa State’s success rate against Iowa, 78 points

Season profile

The series

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Iowa by 14, and it went to form

The market

Weather at kickoff

Kickoff times that Saturday

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

No. 21 Iowa beats Iowa State 16-13

How it swung

Watch the plays

Every drive

From Iowa State’s side

How fans reacted

Two crowds, one game

Box score

Iowa State leaders

Iowa leaders

No rain and calm

Jump to

Before kickoff

Recent games

Week by week

Iowa

Iowa State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Iowa State’s success rate against Iowa, 78 points

Season profile

The series

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Iowa by 14, and it went to form

The market

Weather at kickoff

Kickoff times that Saturday

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next