Arizona

2-1

Big 12 · Brent Brennan, year 3 (15-13) · Arizona Stadium · 50,782 · 40,271 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#28 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #38 (+9.8) · FPI #45
The marketArizona by 10at Washington State · our model 59% Arizona · a number, not a pick

LastW 42–17 vs Northern Illinois · Sat Sep 19 · Noah Fifita 325 pass yds, 4 TD, 4 rush yds

Nextat Washington State · Sat Sep 26 · 7:30 pm ET · Gesa Field · Arizona by 10 · series 28-19 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3

Arizona · 2026 schedule & results2-1
WkDateUsOppLineOpponentResultRecordConf
1Sep 6#27#152-33.5Northern ArizonaW 35–7 1241-00-0
2Sep 12#28#9+6.5@BYUL 17–28 1181-10-1
3Sep 20#25#104-34.5Northern IllinoisW 42–17 1312-10-1
4Sep 26#28#48-10@Washington State
5Oct 3#28#102Cincinnati
6Oct 10@West Virginia
8Oct 24Iowa State
9Oct 31@Texas Tech
10Nov 7TCU
11Nov 14Utah
12Nov 21@Kansas State
13Nov 28Arizona State
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Explosive%Note
Sep 20Northern IllinoisW 42–17441130:20+0.42352.2%145.3%Season-high EPA/play
Sep 12@BYUL 17–28327133:41+0.10641.3%115.0%Season-low EPA/play
Sep 6Northern ArizonaW 35–7520332:12+0.21660.8%93.3%Best success rate
Season average (3 games)4291.7+0.24851.4%117.9%
Verdict Begins·Live

Arizona is the desert program that owns one of the great defenses college football ever fielded — the 1990s Desert Swarm — and spent the seasons since trying to feel that feared again, most recently bouncing back from 4-8 to 9-4 in its second Big 12 year.

Title DroughtSince 1998 · 28 yrs

Wildcat fans say the sport filed Arizona under 'Pac-12 survivor' the day the old league died and never updated the file — they say a 9-4 Big 12 season barely moved the needle, and the desert is…

low signal
Read the full program story ↓

The season in chapters

What fans said

Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown

What it is like to watch them2025 · 9-4 · last season

Game feel51even gamescombined pts / game11th highest-scoring of 16 in the Big 12
Heart rate3-3some dramain one-score games (6 of 13)6th most one-score games of 16 in the Big 12
Margin+12.2comfortableavg scoring margin4th best margin of 16 in the Big 12
Tempo69average paceoffensive plays / game7th fastest of 16 in the Big 12
Big plays1.29some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)7th most explosive of 16 in the Big 12
Home crowd41,782avg attendance12th biggest crowds of 16 in the Big 12

✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season

Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025

Arizona has won three of its last five.

Mixed. 7-3 over the last 10, and won the last one.

Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
Isaiah [Mizell] has been so different, how he has attacked these last nine months, his process, his detail, his effort and it’s showing up. And he’s playing better, and that’s really exciting
Brennan · Wildcat Arizonathe day after Arizona's 2026 game against Northern Illinois
The forecast

Next Sep 26

vs Washington State · away

Season line7.5 winsover +100
StrongPass-first, spreadMethodical, ball-control

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 7.5
CFP championship#33 in field+25000
Big 12 title#8 in market+2700

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22

Arizona · the story right now 5 storylines developing

What Arizona's transfer portal class is really about

the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?

portal2025-05-05~readnew

Brent Brennan's second consecutive top-30 portal class — including Braedyn Locke (QB) — continues Arizona's modern desert-football identity, built on resilience and strategic talent acquisition.

what happenedArizona signed a top-26 transfer-portal class — 30 additions headlined by Braedyn Locke (QB) from Wisconsin and Michael Dansby (CB) from San José State. ✓ fact
the contextsecond consecutive top-30 portal class

our readdeveloping

governance shockthis cycle~readnew

Brent Brennan's third season opens with a 9-4 record and a #21 AP finish, but unease lingers as Arizona navigates its Big 12 debut and the shadow of Jedd Fisch's legacy.

what happenedArizona: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season. ✓ fact

our readdeveloping

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Chris Hunter is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.

our readbackground

closer2025 cycle~attributednew

Kedrick Reescano: a closer signal screened this season.

our readbackground

program_outlookthis cycle~readnew

Arizona leaped 54 spots in SP+ — the 2024 10-3 record and Jedd Fisch’s legacy anchor a program that hasn’t been this high since its 1998 Holiday Bowl peak, now.

what happenedArizona enters 2026 rated No. 28 in 2025 SP+ (+12.0), up 54 spots from 2024. ✓ fact

our readbackground

How past storylines here turned out

Died downArizona's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downArizona's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
AnsweredArizona's head-coaching hire held for another season.

Outcome band · Arizona · 2026

Arizona's most likely season is 9-4 — a bowl game. The floor is 6-7; the ceiling is 11-2.

Floor6-7A bowl game, 3 fewer wins.
Base9-4A bowl game.
Ceiling11-2A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Arizona · Transfer portal Confidence

Arizona signed a top-26 portal class — Braedyn Locke headlines the class. Fall camp is the real verdict.

Arizona signed a top-26 transfer-portal class — 30 additions headlined by Braedyn Locke (QB) from Wisconsin and Michael Dansby (CB) from San José State. It is second consecutive top-30 portal class. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.

near-unanimous belief where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers4 bull takes
💬 fans: 1% volume
The saga so far~7 months old
last weekOregon transfer Kyler Kasper makes his presence felt at BYU with two TD catches in win over Arizona — Deseret News
last weekNCAA denies Godfrey eligibility waiver — Reported
2 weeks agoArizona players sue NCAA — Reported
2 weeks agoNoah Fifita bucked the transfer portal trend to become one of Arizona's greatest quarterbacks — AP News
3 weeks agoUnofficial depth chart released — Reported
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Braedyn Locke QB · Wisconsin
Michael Dansby CB · San José State
“Michael Dansby Selected by Seattle Seahawks in 7th Round of NFL Draft” — University of Arizona Athletics · 2026-04-25
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Brent Brennan's second consecutive top-30 portal class — including Braedyn Locke (QB) — continues Arizona's modern desert-football identity, built on resilience and strategic talent acquisition.
Source of record: Arizona signed a top-26 transfer-portal class — 30 additions headlined by Braedyn Locke (QB) from Wisconsin and Michael Dansby (CB) from San José State — second consecutive top-30 portal class.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards thin
📣Believers4 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.

The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.

“Oregon transfer Kyler Kasper makes his presence felt at BYU with two TD catches in win over Arizona”
Deseret News · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“3 Big 12 Transfers to Watch in Week 1”
Heartland College Sports · 2026-08-28 · read ↗
“Big 12 QB rankings loaded with transfers but led by loyal Wildcat”
USA Today · 2026-08-19 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards6 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.

Only 6 of 892 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"What the fuck did the coaching staff do in the portal. The line is horrendous, we have no wr besides Gio who got hurt, RBs are ass too. The secondary is horrendous can’t tackle and"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"The announcers have already messed up the names and mascots twice, and just called Craig a transfers name..."
r/CFB ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Following now · Arizona · Developing Confidence

Arizona: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season.

The saga so far~7 months old
last weekNCAA denies Godfrey eligibility waiver — Reported
2 weeks agoArizona players sue NCAA — Reported
3 weeks agoUnofficial depth chart released — Reported
Mar 3EDGE Victory Johnson transfer commits from Cal Poly — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Brent Brennan's third season opens with a 9-4 record and a #21 AP finish, but unease lingers as Arizona navigates its Big 12 debut and the shadow of Jedd Fisch's legacy.
Source of record: Arizona: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards quiet
📣Believers1 bullish items -- the case it's working.

The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“WSU Football: Kirby Moore Weekly Press Conference | talks win over Duquesne, previews matchup with Arizona”
SWX Local Sports · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Start times announced for Arizona State, Arizona’s Week 5 games”
Arizona Sports · 2026-09-22 · read ↗
“Improving the rushing attack ‘an absolute priority’ for Arizona”
Arizona Daily Star · 2026-09-22 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards8% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines.

This event was in 75 of 892 board posts (8%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"I thought Suh wasn’t going to be a big deal for Arizona in the 2009 Holiday bowl."
r/CFB ~ fan take
"GG BYU. My fellow Arizona fans are way overreacting to this loss. We did a lot of good things on the road against a very good team and then just fell flat in the end, unfortunately"
r/CFB ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Rival pulse

Arizona State
Bullish
+27
Territorial Cup
Face-off →

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

More in this tab

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Arizona is the Big 12 newcomer whose 1998 12-1 Holiday Bowl + 2024 10-3 + Jedd Fisch + Brent Brennan transition define what modern desert-football looks like.

Offense: StrongRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadTempo: Methodical, ball-control
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2025 · Wk 15Climbed to No. 18 in the CFP rankingsWeek 14 · Won 23-7 at Arizona State7 · from No. 25
  • 2025 · Wk 15Entered the AP Top 25at No. 22
  • 2025 · Wk 14Entered the CFP rankingsWeek 13 · Won 41-17 at home over Baylorat No. 25
RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster Reload - Arizona

2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22
Returning Production65%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#54 nationally247 composite 699.6
Portal Additions22Primary repair: S
Portal Losses20Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss4NFL Draft departures (4)
Recruiting Reload#42Development class
Sin 4 - Daylen Austin3.90out 3 - Jshawn Frausto-Ramos3.50Upgrade
WRin 3 - Dj Jordan3.60out 3 - Devin Hyatt3.50Even
current room: 182 lbs avg (2025 roster)
TEin 3 - Cole Rusk4.12out 2 - Keyan Burnett3.60Upgrade
current room: 230 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Move TE2025 profilecreates mismatches lined up all over the formation
Third program
CBin 3 - Tyrese Boss3.60out 2 - Marquis Groves-Killebrew3.60Upgrade
current room: 186 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Cover Corner2025 profiledoesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play
DLin 0out 3 - Jarra Anderson3.50Starter Risk
current room: 283 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 2 - Matai Tagoa'i3.60out 1 - Stacy Bey3.50Upgrade
current room: 225 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Full roster (110 players)
Offseason movesEvery addition and subtraction since the last snap.

The Offseason Ledger · Arizona

6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    NCAA denies Godfrey eligibility waiver

    Brennan already burned two waiver wins getting Harris and Mahdi cleared — Godfrey's denial is the NCAA collecting on the third ask, and Arizona's DL depth problem just got harder to paper over.

    Sep 10Reported
  2. News

    Arizona players sue NCAA

    Wildcats with four draft departures and a #42 class trying to rebuild — suing the NCAA mid-rebuild is either a distraction or the boldest bet Brent Brennan's program makes all year.

  3. News

    Unofficial depth chart released

    Four draft departures and a #42 class behind them — Brennan's unofficial depth chart is the first real look at whether the DL pressure problem has an answer yet.

    Aug 30Reported
  4. Portal

    EDGE Victory Johnson transfer commits from Cal Poly

    Brent Brennan keeps importing the West Coast FCS evaluation — Johnson's tape is starter-grade.

    Mar 3CFBD /player/portal
  5. News

    Harris, Mahdi cleared to play

    Clearance timing matters — Brennan's roster is already absorbing four draft departures, and getting Harris and Mahdi on the field at No. 15 BYU isn't depth management, it's damage control for a Big 12 opener that sets the tone.

    Sep 12Reported
  6. Recruiting

    CB Whitehead commits to Arizona

    Brennan's plugging the secondary piece by piece — four starters drafted out of Tucson means the CB room still had real miles to cover before fall camp closes.

Who's movedWho's transferring in and out, right now.

Transfer portal snapshot

-3.5 net portal points
(raw ledger: +11.9 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
DL
-10.4
starter risk
S
+6.8
TE
+4.0
RB
+3.7
low confidence
LB
+3.6
CB
+3.5
QB
-3.5
low confidence
IOL
-3.5
EDGE
+3.4
OT
+3.4
K
-2.0
low confidence
WR
+1.9
P
+1.0
low confidence
Top commits

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★★☆
R.J. Mosley
WR · Pittsburg, CA
#144 national
Projects: Deep Threat — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Deep Threat archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Malachi Joyner
IOL · Gilbert, AZ
#223 national
★★★★☆
Justin Morales
OT · El Paso, TX
#275 national
Where they're fromWhere this class actually comes from, on the map.

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

20
CA · 5TX · 5AZ · 4AL · 1AS · 1GA · 1NV · 1UT · 1+1 more

CA leads the 2026 class with 5 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

96 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.

MEVTNHWA3IDMTNDMNWIMINYMAOR2NV2WYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCA39UT1CO1NEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZ20NM1KSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSAL1GA1AKHI5TX17FL2
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles
Miles from homeHow far this roster travelled to get here.

Miles from home · 2026 roster

The median Arizona player grew up 621 miles from campus.

Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.

16th-farthest from home in FBS of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%363–896 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi13%14 of 105 players
Farthest2,978 miJavian Goo · Kapolei, HI
Closest2 miTyler Mustain · Tucson, AZ

Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Arizona Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 105 of 110 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

In-state shareHow much of this roster is home-grown.

Who owns AZ · 2026 roster

24% of the Arizona roster grew up in AZ.

25 of 106 players, drawn from 21 states in all. That is the 90th-highest in-state share of 135 ranked FBS programs.

CA · 31AZ · 25TX · 18HI · 5CO · 3FL · 3GA · 3NV · 3+13 more

Where the 2026 roster is from

106 players across 21 states. Biggest pull outside AZ: CA (31).

MEVTNH1WA1IDMTNDMNWIMINYMAOR2NV3WYSDIA1IL1INOHPA1NJCTCA31UTCO3NEMOKY1WVVAMD1DERIAZ25NMKSARTN2NCSCDCOK1LA1MS1AL1GA3AKHI5TX18FL3
Source CFB Zeitgeist · roster_entries (CFBD hometowns)
Every FBS roster ranked by in-state share →

Home state as listed on the CFBD roster. 4 listed players fall outside the 50 states and DC (international hometowns, or no state listed) and are excluded from the denominator. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] SMU Defeats Arizona 24-19
715 upvotes · Jan 2026
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Arizona 33-27 (2OT)
671 upvotes · Oct 2025
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Arizona 28-17
223 upvotes · Sep 2026

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

How it turned outHow an old class actually turned out, years on.
Class Autopsy
The 2023 class: 1 drafted so far, 44% never transferred. B
See the class →
Belief historyHow today's fan mood compares to the program's past.

Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program

82nd percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. marketWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market
82nd
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(65th among FBS)
Fans 17pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
Pollster gapPollsters don't agree -- here's how far apart.
Voter spread

2 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #22, Koki Riley (The (Baton Rouge) Advocate), to #25, Eric Hansen (The South Bend Tribune). 66 voters left them off the ballot entirely.

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

Losing the penalty battle: 15 penalties committed vs. 15 drawn on opponents, a 29-yard deficit.

135 penalty yards committed vs. 106 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

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