1offseason
Arizona enters 2026 ranked higher, surprising fans
Arizona leaped 54 spots in SP+ — the 2024 10-3 record and Jedd Fisch’s legacy anchor a program that hasn’t been this high since its 1998 Holiday Bowl peak, now.
Arizona9-4CFP #17Latest
The Arizona faithful are all the way in.
belief cooled ↓ 8.7vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Bullish
62/100 · 80 mentions · top 10% of FBS
~ our readGrounding
running on emotion
3% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 35 pts
Credible bullish
~ our readThe model
#42
CFB Zeitgeist · +5.2
✓ measured1Hope-Doping·Offseason
Arizona is the desert program that owns one of the great defenses college football ever fielded — the 1990s Desert Swarm — and spent the seasons since trying to feel that feared again, most recently bouncing back from 4-8 to 9-4 in its second Big 12 year.
AP Top 25#21 AP
Wildcat fans say the sport filed Arizona under 'Pac-12 survivor' the day the old league died and never updated the file — they say a 9-4 Big 12 season barely moved the needle, and the desert is tired…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Arizona
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production56%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#67 nationally247 composite 651.6
Portal Additions22Primary repair: S
Portal Losses20Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss4NFL Draft departures (4)
Recruiting Reload#42Development class
Sin 4 - Daylen Austinout 3 - Jack LuttrellUpgrade
WRin 3 - DJ Jordanout 3 - Devin HyattEven
current room: 182 lbs avg (2025 roster)
TEin 3 - Cole Ruskout 2 - Keyan BurnettUpgrade
current room: 230 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 3 - Tyrese Bossout 2 - Marquis Groves-KillebrewUpgrade
current room: 185 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 0out 3 - Jarra AndersonStarter Risk
current room: 283 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 2 - Matai Tagoa'iout 1 - Stacy BeyUpgrade
current room: 225 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
31 days
until kickoff · vs Northern Arizona · Sun Sep 6 · 01:30 UTC
The experience
Arizona is the Big 12 newcomer whose 1998 12-1 Holiday Bowl + 2024 10-3 + Jedd Fisch + Brent Brennan transition define what modern desert-football looks like.
Offense: SolidDefense: Elite
Arizona's 2026 College Football Team Faces Moderate Continuity with Balanced Portal Churn and a
The team returns 56% of its roster but faces challenges due to four NFL Draft departures and a net loss of three players on the DL, while recruiting ranked #42 and a development class may limit ceiling potential.
- Roster reloadArizona returns 56% of its roster, with moderate continuity, but faces challenges due to four NFL Draft departures and a net loss of three players on the DL.
- RecruitingThe team's recruiting ranked #42 with a score of 216.67, indicating a development class that may limit ceiling potential.
- Transfer portalArizona has a balanced portal churn with 22 transfers in and 20 transfers out, but the team faces a net loss of three players on the DL, a primary pressure position.
Data as of 2026-08-03
·
Validated against program evidence
Wilbur the Wildcat is patient.
Arizona · the story right now
6 storylines developing
What Arizona's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Arizona leaped 54 spots in SP+ — Brennan's second season answers whether desert-football can sustain Fisch's 9-4 foundation and a 10-3 jump as the program climbs.
what happenedArizona enters 2025 rated No. 28 in SP+ (+12.0), up 54 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
portal2025-05-05~readnew
Brent Brennan's second consecutive top-30 portal class — including Braedyn Locke (QB) — continues Arizona's modern desert-football identity, built on resilience and strategic talent acquisition.
what happenedArizona signed a top-26 transfer-portal class — 30 additions headlined by Braedyn Locke (QB) from Wisconsin and Michael Dansby (CB) from San José State. ✓ fact
the contextsecond consecutive top-30 portal class
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Arizona leaped 54 spots in SP+ — the 2024 10-3 record and Jedd Fisch’s legacy anchor a program that hasn’t been this high since its 1998 Holiday Bowl peak, now.
what happenedArizona enters 2026 rated No. 28 in 2025 SP+ (+12.0), up 54 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Brent Brennan's second season follows a 9-4 campaign and a #21 AP finish, with coordinator changes reshaping units as Arizona builds confidence in its Big 12 transition.
what happenedArizona: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Chris Hunter is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle~attributednew
Kedrick Reescano: a closer signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredArizona's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downArizona's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
ReplacedArizona's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
The story
The Offseason Ledger · Arizona
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Portal
EDGE Victory Johnson transfer commits from Cal Poly
Brent Brennan keeps importing the West Coast FCS evaluation — Johnson's tape is starter-grade.
- News
Federal ruling allows grads extra season
Four drafted starters already gone and the development class ranked 42nd nationally — a federal ruling buying extra eligibility is exactly the kind of low-cost depth fix Brennan needs at a DL room under real pressure.
- Recruiting
Arizona OL commits to Cal
Four drafted starters already gone and now a hulking four-star OL walks out the door to Cal — Brennan's line depth just took a hit the class-rank numbers don't fully capture yet.
- Recruiting
Mason Joshua commits to Arizona
Four drafted starters off the D-line and a class sitting at #50 nationally — Joshua is Brennan plugging a real pressure gap, not just stacking depth.
- Recruiting
Caden Jones commits to Arizona
Arizona jumped 54 spots in SP+ and hauled in a top-26 transfer class — Jones landing here isn't random, it's a DL room still absorbing four draft departures and needing bodies who can develop under real pressure.
- Recruiting
Evan Mack commits to Arizona
Third commit from the same California high school — Brennan isn't just recruiting Mack, he's locked into a pipeline that keeps producing, and a CB room facing Big 12 speed needs every developmental rep it can bank.
Transfer portal snapshot
-3.5 net portal points
(raw ledger: +11.9 — unweighted, no position adjustment)DL-10.4
starter risk
S+6.8
TE+4.0
RB+3.7
low confidence
LB+3.6
CB+3.5
QB-3.5
low confidence
IOL-3.5
EDGE+3.4
OT+3.4
K-2.0
low confidence
WR+1.9
P+1.0
low confidence
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
RJ Mosley
#144 national
Projects: Deep Threat — 11 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Deep Threat archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Malachi Joyner
#223 national
★★★★☆
Justin Morales
#275 national
↑
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2025
90th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market↑
90th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(60th among FBS)
(60th among FBS)
Fans 30pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 7.5
CFP championship#38 in field+25000
Big 12 title#6 in market+1600
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Arizona · Next-Season Outcome Band
Arizona · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 6-7
Base 9-4
Ceiling 11-2
floor6-7Bowl game.
base9-4Bowl game.
ceiling11-2Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · Arizona · Season outlook Confidence
One of the biggest jumps in the country. Arizona has to prove the model right.
Arizona enters 2025 rated No. 28 in SP+ (+12.0), up 54 spots from 2024. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers4 bull takes
💬 fans: 8% volume · positive overall
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Arizona leaped 54 spots in SP+ — Brennan's second season answers whether desert-football can sustain Fisch's 9-4 foundation and a 10-3 jump as the program climbs.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a major jump in the model is the expectations tax: a season that would have read as a breakthrough last year now reads as meeting the floor. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Arizona enters 2025 rated No. 28 in SP+ (+12.0), up 54 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers4 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Three-star CB Jacob Whitehead commits to Arizona Wildcats”
Arizona Daily Star · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“Loaded 2028 class in state of Arizona has national appeal”
On3 · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“Three-star DB Jacob Whitehead breaks down his commitment to Arizona”
On3 · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“FOOTBALL IS BACK: Arizona Cardinals SEASON IS OVER & Atlanta Fal” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“FOOTBALL IS BACK: Arizona Cardinals SEASON IS OVER & Atlanta Falcons WORST CASE SCENARIO Plays Out”
KHOU · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
💬The boards7 board mentions — too thin to call a stance. Board mood this week: positive overall · anger notable (41%).›
Only 7 of 87 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"The Cats are going to the Garden for the first time in a while, feel like the place is going to be rocking vs a tough St John’s team. I’ve been to a lot of road games over the year"
r/ArizonaWildcats ~ fan take
"If these people who attacked her consider themselves UofA fans, they can go away. We don't want them."
r/ArizonaWildcats ~ fan take
Board health this week (80 posts): 35% positive · 41% neutral · 24% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Arizona · Transfer portal Confidence
Arizona signed a top-26 portal class — Braedyn Locke headlines the class. Fall camp is the real verdict.
Arizona signed a top-26 transfer-portal class — 30 additions headlined by Braedyn Locke (QB) from Wisconsin and Michael Dansby (CB) from San José State. It is second consecutive top-30 portal class. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers3 bull takes
💬 fans: 1% volume · positive overall
Developing3 new this week
3 days agoFormer Georgia PF transfers to Arizona Wildcats — UGA Wire
3 days agoNewly eligible seniors will count toward roster caps and cannot transfer, court clarifies — Arizona Sports
6 days agoSam Leavitt breaks silence on transferring away from Arizona State — Yahoo Sports
Mar 3EDGE Victory Johnson transfer commits from Cal Poly — CFBD /player/portal
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Braedyn Locke QB · Wisconsin
Michael Dansby CB · San José State
“Michael Dansby Selected by Seattle Seahawks in 7th Round of NFL Draft” — University of Arizona Athletics · 2026-04-25
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Brent Brennan's second consecutive top-30 portal class — including Braedyn Locke (QB) — continues Arizona's modern desert-football identity, built on resilience and strategic talent acquisition.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious question after any portal class isn't who signed — it's who just lost their job. Depth-chart displacement is the untold second chapter: one starter-level arrival means a returning contributor is now competing or transferring out. Watch depth-chart competition in fall camp — that's where portal classes win or lose their billing. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Arizona signed a top-26 transfer-portal class — 30 additions headlined by Braedyn Locke (QB) from Wisconsin and Michael Dansby (CB) from San José State — second consecutive top-30 portal class.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers3 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.›
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
“Ryley Harrison headlines Arizona transfer class”
On3 CFB · 2026-07-22 · read ↗
“This Kansas Transfer Could Easily Land With Missouri”
Heartland College Sports · 2026-04-09 · read ↗
“NAU Football Announces Highly-Ranked 2026 Transfer Portal Class”
Northern Arizona University Athletics · 2026-03-16 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards1 board mentions — too thin to call a stance. Board mood this week: positive overall · anger notable (41%).›
Only 1 of 87 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"6’11 Idaho State transfer. Averaged 4.7 ppg last year. Led the Big Sky in blocked shots the last 2 seasons."
r/ArizonaWildcats ~ fan take
"Not only was a plane waiting to take Lloyd to Chapel Hill (he threatened to use it unless he reported immediately to the U of A president which is why the UA president chartered a"
r/ArizonaWildcats ~ fan take
Board health this week (80 posts): 35% positive · 41% neutral · 24% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Warming
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Sep 6
vs Northern Arizona · at home
Season line7.5 winsover +110
SolidElite
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
20
CA · 5TX · 5AZ · 4AL · 1AS · 1GA · 1NV · 1UT · 1+1 more
CA leads the 2026 class with 5 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
96 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] SMU Defeats Arizona 24-19
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Arizona 33-27 (2OT)
[Game Thread] Holiday Bowl: SMU vs. Arizona (8:00 PM ET)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Voter spread
15 of 66 AP voters have them ranked, final AP ballot (2025) — from #17, Steven Johnson (Fort Worth Star-Telegram), to #25, Stephen Means (Cleveland.com). 51 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
National spotlight
12 games with TV coverage: 3 national broadcast, 3 ESPN, 6 cable
Kickoff windows: 3 noon, 2 afternoon, 7 primetime
Fumble luck
Recovering 82% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~49% league rate.
9 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 5 of 10 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
Converting 26% of pass disruptions into takeaways — well above the ~19% league rate.
19 interceptions of 74 disrupted passes (55 deflected, 19 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
The penalty battle is a wash: 73 penalties committed vs. 69 drawn on opponents.
679 penalty yards committed vs. 661 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Arizona
62
Δ -8.7 vs last wk
80
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Desert Swarm"
— Arizona fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence1 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 5 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
LLocked On
CCampus paper
BBearDownU
BBluesky
YYouTube
One voice
How Arizona fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
skeptical
buying in
Die-hards+0.15
National take+0.12
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
152 mentions · 7 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checklight on evidence
~ our readArizona fans are cautiously optimistic, but it's more feel than fact right now.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 80 posts from Arizona fans this week.
Territorial Cup
Fan mood across the 2025 season, both sides — our read
Hover a week for both sides’ game
Shaded weeks show whose fanbase read warmer, our measure of what fans actually said, not a poll.
Season storylines
Week 10
“This is absolutely correct, and it didn't look like Arizona wanted to take it. And I'm shocked Arizona found a way to win a game it never should have won. It's typically the opposite scenario.”— r/CFB
Week 1
“Honestly, this is exactly what I wanted to see from this game. Actually, it's even better than I hoped for. Sure, Hawaii isn't a great team, especially with their QB playing hurt, but they're not an awful team. And we've taken care of business. Both sides of the ball took a wh…”— r/CFB
Week 2
“Yeah 2 bad plays and a bad ref crew was the difference lol Wish our offense had more tds and a more accurate kicker. Should have been a double digit victory”— r/CFB
Week 8
“Very true... The last WR to catch a TD pass that wasn't Tyson was last year's Skattebo/McClain connection in the Peach Bowl. This year, Tyson has 57 receptions... the next closes ASU WR (Eusebio) has only 7.”— r/CFB
Week 3
“I know I’m going to be killed for this buuuut… - team coming off way a more successful season than anyone expected the year before - struggled at home against NAU - offense revolves around targeting one WR and nothing else - consistently undisciplined play I swear to god 202…”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial2 posts
The broader fanbase3 posts
News & campus coverage13 posts
Rent free · r/cfb fan posts, last season
Arizona lives rent-free in
share of each rival fanbase’s football posts that bring up Arizona
Fanbase Health Index · Arizona · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Arizona · high confidenceGrowing (64)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 9-4 (69% win rate)75
Volume — 401 effective signal-N82
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.01 — quiet35
From the booth
The Lexicon
388 posts and articles vs the field · 2025 season
fifita
×383.8 the field
Signature — ≥10× the rest of college football
fifita×383.8n=17
bear×35.1n=15
Characteristic — 3–10×
kicker×7.5n=40
asu×18.7n=18
wildcats×33.3n=13
noah×31.0n=11
forward×6.8n=11
zone×5.0n=15
Mild — <3×
defense×1.8n=76
kickoff×2.8n=22
“The Mahdi Fifita Cats powered by their defense looked solid (kinda sorta not really)”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
Fanbase Voice
606 fan mentions
Believers
vs the 81 highest-volume fanbases - 2025 season
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#28 / 138 · 80th pct31.5
Pts allowed/game#16 / 138 · 89th pct19.3
Total yards/gm#47 / 136 · 66th pct407.9
Rush yards/gm#72 / 136 · 48th pct152.7
Pass yards/gm#39 / 136 · 72nd pct255.2
Yards allowed/gm#17 / 136 · 88th pct308.8
Rush yds allowed/gm#65 / 136 · 53rd pct143.5
Sacks#100 / 136 · 27th pct21
Interceptions#2 / 136 · 99th pct22
3rd-down conv#54 / 136 · 61st pct41.0%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team5303407.9/gm5.85/play#47 / 136 · 66th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp4015308.8/gm4.69/play#17 / 136 · 88th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Rush yards
Team1985152.7/gm2.19/play#72 / 136 · 48th pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp1866143.5/gm2.18/play#65 / 136 · 53rd pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Rush carries
Team46035.4/gm#64 / 136 · 54th pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp47136.2/gm#91 / 136 · 34th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Rush TDs
Team201.5/gm#68 / 136 · 51st pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp191.5/gm#68 / 136 · 51st pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Net pass yards
Team3318255.2/gm3.66/play#39 / 136 · 72nd pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp2149165.3/gm2.51/play#8 / 136 · 95th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Pass attempts
Team44734.4/gm#29 / 136 · 79th pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp38529.6/gm#63 / 136 · 54th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Completions
Team28121.6/gm#35 / 136 · 75th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp20816.0/gm#21 / 136 · 85th pct#7 / 69 · 91st pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Pass TDs
Team292.2/gm#17 / 136 · 88th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp90.7/gm#2 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Passer rating
Team136.8136.8#62 / 136 · 55th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp104.5104.5#3 / 136 · 99th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team80.6/gm#88 / 136 · 36th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp221.7/gm#134 / 136 · 2nd pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Sacks (def)
Team211.6/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Opp302.3/gm#107 / 136 · 22nd pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Tackles for loss
Team816.2/gm#30 / 136 · 79th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Opp695.3/gm#75 / 136 · 46th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
First downs
Team29022.3/gm#35 / 136 · 75th pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp21416.5/gm#14 / 136 · 90th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
3rd-down conv
Team735.6/gm#48 / 136 · 65th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp634.8/gm#36 / 136 · 74th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
3rd-down att
Team17813.7/gm#42 / 136 · 70th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp18514.2/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
4th-down conv
Team201.5/gm#15 / 136 · 90th pct#7 / 69 · 91st pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp191.5/gm#115 / 136 · 16th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
4th-down att
Team322.5/gm#26 / 136 · 82nd pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp332.5/gm#110 / 136 · 20th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Time of possession
Team402:2330:57/gm#41 / 136 · 71st pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp377:3729:03/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#128 / 135 · 6th pct19/32 (59.4%)
Extra points47/48
Punting#89 / 136 · 35th pct42.5 avg · 41 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team131.0/gm#103 / 136 · 25th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp312.4/gm#135 / 136 · 1st pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Fumbles lost
Team50.4/gm#91 / 136 · 34th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp90.7/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
INT return TDs
Team20.2/gm#18 / 135 · 87th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Opp10.1/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#5 / 11 · 64th pct
INT return yards
Team24618.9/gm#13 / 136 · 91st pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp14511.2/gm#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Punt ret yds
Team20215.5/gm#39 / 136 · 72nd pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp886.8/gm#48 / 136 · 65th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team22317.2/gm#115 / 136 · 16th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp1088.3/gm#4 / 136 · 98th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#3 / 9 · 78th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team67952.2/gm#67 / 136 · 51st pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp66150.8/gm#67 / 136 · 51st pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Other
Kick ret (opp)#2 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct50.4/gm
Interceptions (def)#2 / 136 · 99th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct221.7/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#18 / 143 · 88th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct0.10.0/gm
Red zone pass rate#21 / 154 · 87th pct#7 / 69 · 91st pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct0.50.0/gm
Fumbles recovered#24 / 136 · 83rd pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct90.7/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct50.4/gm
Punt ret (opp)#31 / 136 · 78th pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct100.8/gm
Punt returns#36 / 136 · 74th pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct201.5/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#41 / 136 · 71st pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct80.6/gm
Penalties (opp)#43 / 136 · 69th pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct695.3/gm
H1 epa per play#45 / 162 · 73rd pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct0.20.0/gm
Recruiting rating#50 / 138 · 64th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct200.715.4/gm
H2 epa per play#68 / 142 · 53rd pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct0.20.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#78 / 167 · 54th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct0.20.0/gm
Penalties#80 / 136 · 42nd pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct735.6/gm
Fourth down go rate#84 / 138 · 40th pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct0.40.0/gm
First down pass rate#87 / 215 · 60th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct0.50.0/gm
Kick returns#118 / 136 · 14th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct110.8/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off41.0%#54 / 136 · 61st pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def34.1%#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
4th-down conversion
Off62.5%#27 / 136 · 81st pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Def57.6%#85 / 136 · 38th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Turnover margin#2 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct+1.38/gm
Sack rate (def)#102 / 136 · 26th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct5.5%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team554.2/gm#24 / 167 · 86th pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp332.5/gm#52 / 166 · 69th pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Red zone score %
Team65.5%65.5%#146 / 167 · 13th pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp81.8%81.8%#108 / 166 · 36th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Points / drive
Team2.30.2/gm#42 / 167 · 75th pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp1.60.1/gm#28 / 166 · 84th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / drive
Team47.03.6/gm#19 / 167 · 89th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp36.12.8/gm#31 / 166 · 82nd pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Plays / drive
Team6.70.5/gm#68 / 167 · 60th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp6.20.5/gm#34 / 166 · 80th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team12.5%12.5%#65 / 167 · 62nd pct#34 / 69 · 52nd pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp17.1%17.1%#31 / 166 · 82nd pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#113 / 145 · 23rd pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct-4.7%-4.7%
Havoc rate
Team21.1%21.1%#6 / 140 · 96th pct#6 / 69 · 93rd pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct
Opp14.7%14.7%#64 / 140 · 55th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct
Standard-downs success
Team48.4%48.4%#70 / 154 · 55th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct
Opp47.3%47.3%#71 / 172 · 59th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct
Passing-downs success
Team31.7%31.7%#69 / 153 · 56th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct
Opp26.6%26.6%#22 / 149 · 86th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct
Line yards / carry
Team3.13.1#34 / 143 · 77th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct
Opp2.92.9#70 / 155 · 55th pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct
Stuff rate
Team18.7%18.7%#76 / 143 · 48th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct
Opp18.0%18.0%#82 / 155 · 48th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct
Power success rate
Team71.8%71.8%#61 / 137 · 56th pct#34 / 69 · 52nd pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct
Opp68.3%68.3%#59 / 141 · 59th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off62.9%#60 / 136 · 57th pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Def54.0%#7 / 136 · 96th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / attempt
Off7.4#59 / 136 · 57th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def5.6#5 / 136 · 97th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / completion
Off11.8#59 / 136 · 57th pct#34 / 69 · 52nd pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Def10.3#13 / 136 · 91st pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / carry#73 / 136 · 47th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct4.3
Yards / play#55 / 136 · 60th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct5.85
Scoring margin#22 / 136 · 85th pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#2 / 11 · 91st pct+12.2/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.25 EPA/play | 1 | 13 | 275 / 429 | 64.1 | 3228 #23 FBS | 7.5 | 29 #9 FBS | 6 | 146.8 | 68.3 | 7.4 | 5.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.3 68th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate1.4% 83th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 54th percentile among FBS QBs to the 79th | |||||||||||||
| -8.80 EPA/play | 8 | 3 | 5 / 15 | 33.3 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 | 1 | 58.1 | 1.5 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.17 EPA/play | 21 | 13 | 133 | 853 #72 FBS | 6.4 | 4 | 68 | 8 | 10.7 | 16.9 | 23.1 | 4.6% (18/389) | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.4 86th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate3.0% bottom 32th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ismail Mahdi's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.10 EPA/play | 3 | 10 | 84 | 396 | 4.7 | 9 #65 FBS | 50 | 5.9 | 6 | 13.8 | 11.2 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.5 bottom 49th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate10.7% 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Kedrick Reescano's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.15 EPA/play | 24 | 12 | 65 | 364 | 5.6 | 2 | 54 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 20.3 | 13.0 | 3.9% (15/389) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share17.7% 83th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate3.1% bottom 33th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Quincy Craig's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.44 EPA/play | — | 4 | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 0 | 11 | 3.9 | 2.5 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.60 EPA/play | 4 | 11 | 60 | 764 | 12.7 | 4 | 40 | 13.4 | 16.6 | 23.4% (91/389) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume60 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)53.0 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kris Hutson's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.07 EPA/play | 6 | 13 | 41 | 490 | 12.0 | 5 | 85 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 13.4% (52/389) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.4 bottom 41th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 5th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Javin Whatley's full player page | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.74 EPA/play | 12 | 13 | 23 | 381 | 16.6 | 7 #38 FBS | 70 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 9.8% (38/389) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball Target· Money-downWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate30.4% 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 83th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 51st percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 7th | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.34 EPA/play | 11 | 10 | 27 | 372 | 13.8 | 2 | 35 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 13.1% (51/389) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior View Chris Hunter's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.49 EPA/play | 5 | 11 | 21 | 299 | 14.2 | 2 | 60 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 8.0% (31/389) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.2 57th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume21 bottom 23th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Gio Richardson's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.72 EPA/play | 15 | 13 | 24 | 278 | 11.6 | 2 | 47 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 6.9% (27/389) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.7 bottom 44th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 82th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 88th to 36th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.43 EPA/play | 80 | 7 | 19 | 189 | 9.9 | 2 | 24 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 5.1% (20/389) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.4 53th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.4 bottom 39th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cameron Barmore's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.57 EPA/play | 84 | 8 | 17 | 135 | 7.9 | 2 | 16 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 5.4% (21/389) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.2 bottom 20th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume17 bottom 34th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sam Olson's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.59 EPA/play | 18 | 4 | 6 | 82 | 13.7 | 1 | 42 | 2.5 | 4.7 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 97 | 9 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 0.5 | 2 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 83th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tiaoalil Savea's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 13 | 28 | 10 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2025 class View Leroy Palu's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | — | 10 | 26 | 9 | 11 #74 FBS | 2 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate42.3% 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Deshawn McKnight's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 11 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate8.3% bottom 25th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mays Pese's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 44 | 12 | 22 | 11 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.9% 55th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Malachi Bailey's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 42 | 10 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.5% bottom 33th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dominic Lolesio's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 41 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2022 class View Julian Savaiinaea's full player page | |||||||
| 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 13 | 93 | 38 | 55 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume93 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate1.1% bottom 30th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Taye Brown's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 4 | 12 | 78 | 39 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Max Harris's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 16 | 11 | 51 | 23 | 28 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.8% 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate15.7% 81th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Riley Wilson's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 7 | 12 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume42 bottom 38th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate19.0% 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 42nd percentile to the 74th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 8 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume24 bottom 17th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate16.7% 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jabari Mann's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume18 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate16.7% 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Myron Robinson's full player page | |||||||||
| 36 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 43 | 12 | 97 | 7 | 4 #23 FBS | 2 | 1 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.2% bottom 46th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 76th percentile among FBS Ss to the 99th | |||||||
| Box Safety | 12 | 12 | 77 | 8 #45 FBS | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume77 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Rover | 2 | 10 | 52 | 6 | 4 #23 FBS | 1 | 1 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.5% 68th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 67th percentile among FBS Ss, fell to 29th, now back up to 97th | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 9 | 13 | 43 | 8 #45 FBS | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Centerfielder· Takeaway threatSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate18.6% 92th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 30th to 74th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 10 | 23 | 4 | 4 #23 FBS | 3 | 1 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate17.4% 90th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jay'Vion Cole's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 23 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.8% 85th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Gavin Hunter's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 25 | 9 | 19 | 10 #20 FBS | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate52.6% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| 29 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 5 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 21 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 19 | 13 | 19/31 | 61.3 | 47/48 | 104 | 57 |
| 33 | 1 | 0/1 | 0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 99 | 11 | 35 | 1491 | 42.6 | 62 | 13 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.72 EPA/play | 15 | 13 | 12 | 124 | 10.3 | 0 | 27 |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 78 | 9.8 | 0 | 41 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Taye Brown
LB
93.0 tot (def)
2.
Noah Fifita
QB
3,228 yds (pass)
3.
Max Harris
LB
78.0 tot (def)
4.
Kris Hutson
WR
764 yds (rec)
5.
Ismail Mahdi
RB
853 yds (rush)
Roster
2025
29
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Dalton Johnson
S
#3 of 544
Treydan Stukes
CB
#20 of 364
Jay'Vion Cole
CB
#22 of 364
Riley Wilson
LB
#57 of 583
Genesis Smith
S
#75 of 544
Michael Dansby
CB
#54 of 364
+23 more
Arizona · 2025 schedule & results9-4Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 52% · 7 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule. 1 ranked win banked (time-of-game rank).
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 31 | #77 | #83 | -15.5 | Hawai'i | W 40–6 130 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #80 | #135 | -31.5 | Weber State | W 48–3 122 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #78 | #30 | +1.5 | Kansas State | W 23–17 132 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #63 | #40 | +3.5 | @Iowa State | L 14–39 140 | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #67 | #119 | -23.5 | Oklahoma State | W 41–13 134 | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | Oct 12 | #60 | #20 | +2.5 | BYU | L 27–33 158 | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #62 | #54 | -2.5 | @Houston | L 28–31 125 | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #65 | #83 | -3.5 | @Colorado | W 52–17 140 | 5-3 | 3-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #53 | #64 | -6.5 | Kansas | W 24–20 130 | 6-3 | 4-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #55 | #39 | +6 | @CincinnatiTop 25 win | W 30–24 130 | 7-3 | 5-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #51 | #37 | -6.5 | Baylor | W 41–17 138 | 8-3 | 6-3 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #40 | #33 | -2.5 | @Arizona State | W 23–7 141 | 9-3 | 7-3 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 19 | Jan 3 | #37 | #10 | +2.5 | SMU (N) | L 19–24 | 9-4 | 7-3 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3 | SMU | L 19–24 | — | — | — | +0.094 | 43.4% | 118.7% | One-score loss |
| Nov 29 | @Arizona State | W 23–7 | 374 | 1 | 40:01 | +0.002 | 43.2% | 98.2% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 22 | Baylor | W 41–17 | 355 | 1 | 27:12 | +0.295 | 41.7% | 150.0% | |
| Nov 15 | @Cincinnati | W 30–24 | 475 | 0 | 36:41 | +0.267 | 42.7% | 120.3% | One-score win |
| Nov 8 | Kansas | W 24–20 | 323 | 0 | 24:30 | +0.195 | 39.3% | 130.2% | One-score win |
| Nov 1 | @Colorado | W 52–17 | 417 | 2 | 25:51 | +0.203 | 41.3% | 165.2% | Blowout win |
| Oct 18 | @Houston | L 28–31 | 381 | 0 | 30:28 | +0.301 | 53.2% | 118.6% | Best success rate |
| Oct 12 | BYU | L 27–33 | 384 | 1 | 27:13 | +0.108 | 34.2% | 127.3% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | Oklahoma State | W 41–13 | 479 | 3 | 34:30 | +0.066 | 45.3% | 151.4% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 27 | @Iowa State | L 14–39 | 360 | 2 | 28:55 | +0.069 | 50.7% | 85.5% | |
| Sep 13 | Kansas State | W 23–17 | 412 | 2 | 36:55 | +0.064 | 33.3% | 128.5% | One-score win |
| Sep 7 | Weber State | W 48–3 | 556 | 0 | 32:39 | +0.418 | 46.6% | 119.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 31 | Hawai'i | W 40–6 | 346 | 0 | 24:16 | +0.278 | 40.4% | 165.5% | Most explosive |
| Season average (13 games) | 405 | 1.0 | +0.182 | 42.7% | 129.1% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Arizona fields a capable offense behind an elite defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Arizona actually scores
64th percentile quality, 37th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Arizona's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 30th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 83rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Arizona hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
54th percentile success on standard downs, 54th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Arizona by half
1st-half offense ranks 73rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 53rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Arizona's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.18; 72nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.35 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Arizona reads strongest in success rate allowed (top 16%) and epa allowed (top 17%); the crux lives in passing epa, where Arizona sits at the 40th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Arizona
Most Similar Programs · ArizonaReads Like
AkronTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizona StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Arizona · 2018-present
Strong
51% home win rate vs 30% on the road. margin runs +10.0 better at home. Arizona Stadium seats 50,782, averaging 88% full (44,929 attendance, 27 games reported).
Home25-24Away12-27
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Ismail Mahdi and Kedrick Reescano split the carries (130/213 vs 83/213) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Kedrick Reescano gets the goal line; Ismail Mahdi owns the receiving work.
Ismail MahdiKedrick Reescano
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Inside the 5
p = 0.017 -- real, not noise
Q4, leading (competitive)
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
p = 0.023 -- real, not noise
Top-5-carry share
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
See it develop week by week
Inside-the-5 share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
Screened 4 claims, 2 survived, 2 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Kris Hutson (WR) and Sam Olson (TE) split the targets (89/109 vs 20/109) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Kris HutsonSam Olson
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Inside the 10
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
What changed
Arizona’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Dino Babers (2024) → Seth Doege (2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 5 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defense: Duane Akina (2024) → Danny Gonzales (2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 5 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Arizona’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (65.9% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 138-play sample) — mid-pack, 67 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=138 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 65.9%
Historical echo
Arizona’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
Middle Tennessee 2013–2018
held the gain
USC 1960–1965
kept climbing
Toledo 1979–1984
fell back
Marshall 1980–2000
fell back
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Venue texture
80°F average kickoff temp; 0% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 75 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Arizona's 2014–2025 record is 65-78. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
Territorial Cup
89 meetings since 1931 See the whole history →
Heat trajectory
Week-by-week rivalry heat isn't tracked yet for this matchup — check back as the 2026-27 season approaches and real fan-intel signal accumulates.
Fan Heat Index
Who's more worked up right now
Cross-fanbase rivalry sentiment for this matchup hasn't been measured yet this week — both sides show as neutral until real signal comes in.
Arizona
Awaiting
Arizona State
Awaiting
Arizona
—
Arizona State
—
THE LAST 5 · year-by-year
- W 2025 Win 23–7
- L 2024 Loss 7–49
- W 2023 Win 59–23
- W 2022 Win 38–35
- L 2021 Loss 15–38
All-Time Record
521-481-25
since 1916 · 101 seasons · .507 win rate
HOME
341-220-10
AWAY
170-246-14
NEUTRAL
10-15-1
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
Brent Brennan went 4-8 in his first season and nearly lost his job. He went 9-4 in his second and earned a contract extension. Arizona enters 2026 trying to decide which version of Brent Brennan just showed up — and whether a bounce-back is a program or a single good year.
Desert Swarm is the standard Arizona football reaches for. Dick Tomey's early-1990s defenses were genuinely feared — 30 rushing yards allowed per game, Sports Illustrated cover, a 1998 season that finished 12-1 and ranked fourth nationally, a Holiday Bowl win over Nebraska. That is the ceiling the Wildcats carry as identity, and it is a real one. Tedy Bruschi came out of Tucson. Rob Gronkowski came out of Tucson. Bear Down is a campus creed with a genuine origin — the dying words of a 1926 player-captain, adopted as the university's permanent standard. The building blocks of a program that can be feared again are in the record.
The path back has been uneven. After Jedd Fisch's 10-3 rebuild in 2023, he left for Washington and Arizona crashed to 4-8 in Brennan's first Big 12 season, with the fanbase openly calling for a change. Brennan answered with a 9-4 turnaround in 2025 — a 6-3 conference record, a Holiday Bowl bid — and a contract extension. The offseason moved belief: Arizona appears to have a coach capable of competing in the Big 12 on a sustainable basis, not just surviving it. That is the real shift entering 2026, and it is the first time in a while the program has been able to say it honestly.
The 2026 question is whether the 9-4 was the new floor or the new ceiling. Arizona's Big 12 schedule will not get easier; the top of the league — Texas, Oklahoma State, the programs that treat Tucson as a winnable road game — will be watching the Wildcats closely. The specific answer the season will provide: whether Brennan can build a defense worth fearing again. The offense has Air Raid-flavored infrastructure. The defense is where the Desert Swarm ghost either returns or stays dormant.
How they play
A defense-first identity at its historical best — the Desert Swarm tradition of swarming gang-tackling pressure, updated into the modern Big 12 era with Air Raid-flavored passing concepts on offense. Brennan's 2025 team ran a spread-oriented attack and mixed defensive schemes to hold opponents in check on enough Saturdays to reach nine wins. The identity is in transition: Arizona knows what it wants to be defensively (feared, physical, Swarm) and is still determining whether the current staff can get it back there.
Rising
Arizona 2016–2025. Climbing +1.4 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope +0.28 rungs / year — moving up the prestige scale.
CFP Era · Arizona
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4 · CFP #17 / AP #21
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4 · CFP #17 / AP #21Ranked (25-16)
Arizona: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Big 12 Standing · 2025
4th in the Big 12
Arizona sits 4th of 16 in the Big 12 at 7-3. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | 9-1 |
| 2 | BYU | 8-2 |
| 3 | Utah | 7-2 |
| 4 | Arizona | 7-3 |
| 5 | Arizona State | 6-3 |
| 6 | Houston | 6-3 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 5-4 |
| 8 | Iowa State | 5-4 |
| 9 | TCU | 5-4 |
| 10 | Kansas State | 5-5 |
| 11 | Baylor | 3-6 |
| 12 | Kansas | 3-6 |
| 13 | UCF | 2-7 |
| 14 | West Virginia | 2-7 |
| 15 | Colorado | 1-8 |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 0-9 |
Coaching Era · Arizona
Coaching Era · ArizonaBrent Brennan
Brent Brennan in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Era Brent Brennan · 2024–presentPrev: Jedd Fisch (2021–2023)OC: Seth DoegePrev OC: Dino Babers (2024)DC: Danny GonzalesPrev DC: Duane Akina (2024)
3
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Bear Down
since 1926
'Bear Down' — dating to 1926, the final words of Arizona QB John 'Button' Salmon before he died from a car-crash injury — is the program's permanent mantra. The phrase is engraved on every Arizona facility + tattooed on alumni + spoken in every postgame interview. The most-storied two-word mantra in CFB outside of 'Roll Tide.'
1998 Desert Swarm Era
since 1998
Dick Tomey's 1998 12-1 + Holiday Bowl championship + #4 final AP rank — 'Desert Swarm' defensive identity — is the program's all-time peak. The defense forced 50+ turnovers + held offenses to single digits routinely. Tomey's tenure (1987-2000) defined the program identity that continues to anchor recruiting.
Cactus Bowl / Territorial Cup
since 1899
Arizona-Arizona State plays for the Territorial Cup — first played 1899, one of CFB's oldest trophy games. The in-state Big 12 rivalry has produced 90+ meetings. The Cup itself is a brass-and-leather trophy whose annual home depends on the outcome.
The Chronicle
Arizona's worst loss of the season came against Iowa State
The Wildcats' 14-39 loss to Iowa State in Week 5 landed 37.2 points below the team's season-average margin of 12.2 — the single widest gap between a scoreline and Arizona's own baseline all year, on the road. Bear Down took a real hit that Saturday.
gamelog · 2025 season · wk 5Noah Fifita's passing WEPA graded positive across 445 plays
Fifita posted a .31 WEPA passing across 445 plays and .20 rushing across 86 more, with 23 mentions over 6 weeks of conversation presence peaking at a 5.45 attention score. Desert Swarm gets the defensive spotlight, but the quarterback quietly built a positive production case of his own that season.
gamelog + roster archive · Noah Fifita · 2025Arizona's biggest win of the season came in Week 2 over Weber State
The Wildcats' 48-3 win over Weber State produced a 45-point margin — bigger than any other result Arizona posted that season — just three weeks before the program's worst loss of the year against Iowa State. Bear Down looked very different in Week 2 than it did in Week 5.
gamelog · 2025 season · wk 2Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1994
Desert Swarm on the SI cover
The defense gracing Sports Illustrated — the moment the desert became nationally feared
The 1998 12-1 season
A 23-20 Holiday Bowl win over Nebraska, a #4 final ranking — the high-water mark of Arizona football
Moment of the Year · Arizona · 2025
Moment of the Year · Arizona · 2025Postseason · Lost 19-24 at SMU
Week 19 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2025): 2-3
Most recent: 2025 — loss 24-19 (away). Last 5 postseason: 2-3.
20252023201720152014
NFL Draft Pipeline
2024–2026
NFL Draft PipelineSteady
11 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
11
picks · 2 R1
#8
Tetairoa McMillan
Wide Receiver · 2025 · Carolina · #4/466 final season
#25
Jordan Morgan
Offensive Tackle · 2024 · Green Bay
#37
Jonah Savaiinaea
Offensive Guard · 2025 · Miami
#52 all-time · 12 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Arizona’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014–2017 · co-Calvin Magee / co-Rod Smith2018–2020 · Noel Mazzone2021–2023 · Brennan Carroll2024 · Dino Babers2025 (ongoing) · Seth Doege
Defense2014–2025
2014–2015 · Jeff Casteel2016–2018 · Marcel Yates2019 · Marcel Yates / Chuck Cecil (interim)2020 · Paul Rhoads2021 · Don Brown2022–2023 · Johnny Nansen2024 · Duane Akina2025 (ongoing) · Danny Gonzales
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
Average 2025 continuity (56% back) — offense anchors it, qb room is the stress point.
The portal upgraded the P room but opened a hole at IOL.
DB took the biggest 2026 draft hit (4 picks) — the reload watch is on.
Arizona converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.
r/cfb moments
1.5k
[Postgame Thread] USC Defeats Arizona 43-41 (3OT)
1.4k
[Postgame Thread] Northern Arizona Defeats Arizona 21-19
715
[Postgame Thread] SMU Defeats Arizona 24-19
671
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Arizona 33-27 (2OT)
508
[Postgame Thread] USC Defeats Arizona 45-37
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