The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Brent Brennan

Followed Jedd Fisch. Brent Brennan moved Arizona from National Program III to National Program II in 3 seasons.

The ascent
47–60
2017–now · 2 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

Noah [Fifita] leads the way in terms of like that high profile player that’s chosen to stay, but I think this city appreciates loyalty […] and no one has been more loyal than Noah Fifita
It’s great to have them back
Wildcat Arizona
The sooner we could have a little bit more clarity about how it’s all going to play out, the better
Wildcat Arizona
I take it back to March Madness
Heartland College Sports

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 8th career season — faster than 7% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #617 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

San José State, 7 seasons
+0.0
Regional Program IV → Regional Program III.
Arizona, 3 seasons (active)
+2.2
National Program III → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%60%San José State2017–2023– 0.5ptArizona2024–2026▼ 6.3pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
San José State15.5pt#44 of 258 · more than most
Arizona7.8pt#176 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–1 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Kalani Sitake.

Rivalry record
1–1
50.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
12–13
48.0% · margin ≤8
Buyout owed
$10,650,000 (est.)
bigger than 54% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
The toughest matchup
vs. Kalani Sitake0–4
4 meetings, 2017–2026
’17 L’24 L · blew a 7-pt lead’25 L · blew a 10-pt lead’26 L · blew a 7-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
3–7 30.0%
National Program
7–21 25.0%
Regional Program
27–24 52.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.24
#248 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.04
#188 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2024–now
Arizonacaretaker
National Program III → National Program II
Brent Brennan moved Arizona from National Program III to National Program II in 3 seasons.

12th-best Arizona tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-10.7 pts
#152 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-3.4 pts
#118 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Jedd Fisch (2021–2023).

Season202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record4–89–40–0
PostseasonL bowl
Recruiting rank#85#50#42
Style — pass rate
Pass rate57.049.350.7
Coordinators
OCDino BabersSeth DoegeSeth Doege
DCDuane AkinaDanny GonzalesDanny Gonzales
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense176421
Defense187886
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%50.645.554.7
Red-zone pass%44.349.630.0
4th-down go%opp. territory24.336.0
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
76
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
89
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-13
#22 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 236 lbs
across 62 of 76 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+0.4 lbs
#221 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#78 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: CA (20), TX (9), AZ (7), GA (6), IL (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
56.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
61.7
position-weighted
Net
-5.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Braedyn Locke (QB) from Wisconsin
Biggest loss: Brayden Dorman (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Dino Babers → Seth Doege · 2025
17th pct64th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 50.6% → 45.5% (-5.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 56% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Duane Akina → Danny Gonzales · 2025
18th pct78th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
188 lbs
5′10″ avg · #761 of 767 · less than most
Running back
199 lbs
5′10″ avg · #642 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
188 lbs
6′1″ avg · #601 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
234 lbs
6′4″ avg · #680 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
311 lbs
6′5″ avg · #311 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
273 lbs
6′3″ avg · #604 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
226 lbs
6′1″ avg · #499 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
189 lbs
6′0″ avg · #472 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tight end via the portal
71%
#21 of 188 stints
Buys Edge via the portal
73%
#30 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2025: Lost to SMU 19–24 Trust & Will Holiday Bowl

11 NFL Draft picks: Jordan Morgan (2024), Jacob Cowing (2024), Tanner McLachlan (2024), Tetairoa McMillan (2025), Jonah Savaiinaea (2025), Tyler Loop (2025), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (2025), Treydan Stukes (2026) + 3 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Tetairoa Mcmillan (2024)

13–12
2017–2023
San José Statecaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program III
Brent Brennan moved San José State from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 7 seasons.

11th-best San José State tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+0.4 pts
#112 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-1.8 pts
#114 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Ron Caragher (2013–2016) · succeeded by Ken Niumatalolo (2024–2026).

Season2017201820192020202120222023Trend
Record & result
Record2–111–115–77–15–77–57–6
PostseasonL bowlL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#98#94#117#114#119#75#111
Style — pass rate
Pass rate46.255.861.755.053.355.646.7
Coordinators
OCAndrew SowderKevin McGivenKevin McGivenKevin McGivenKevin McGivenKevin McGivenKevin McGiven
DCDerrick OdumDerrick OdumDerrick OdumDerrick OdumDerrick OdumDerrick OdumDerrick Odum
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense276083175681
Defense13272663724352
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%37.052.060.548.548.355.640.5
Red-zone pass%50.751.246.244.942.354.030.9
4th-down go%opp. territory33.321.428.625.918.930.027.3
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
24
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
28
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-4
#145 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 219 lbs
across 18 of 24 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-6.6 lbs
#256 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#34 of 255 · more than most
Top states: CA (14), HI (3), OH (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.8
position-weighted
Talent lost
48.6
position-weighted
Net
+4.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jay Butterfield (QB) from Oregon
Biggest loss: Alec Trujillo (QB) to Iowa Central C.C.
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Andrew Sowder → Kevin McGiven · 2018
2nd pct7th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 37.0% → 52.0% (+15.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 99% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
199 lbs
6′2″ avg · #710 of 767 · less than most
Running back
200 lbs
5′9″ avg · #637 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
187 lbs
6′1″ avg · #646 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
230 lbs
6′3″ avg · #705 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
296 lbs
6′4″ avg · #741 of 779 · less than most
D-line
277 lbs
6′3″ avg · #525 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
220 lbs
6′1″ avg · #705 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
189 lbs
6′0″ avg · #467 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Running back from high school
83%
#186 of 208 stints
Grows Edge from high school
91%
#190 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2020: Lost to Ball State 13–34 Offerpad Arizona Bowl2022: Lost to Eastern Michigan 27–41 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2023: Lost to Coastal Carolina 14–24 EasyPost Hawaiʻi Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Jermaine Kelly (2018), Josh Oliver (2019), Viliami Fehoko (2023)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Cade Hall (2020)

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