Postseason implications · Week 8 · Model odds as of Fri, Oct 23

What's on the line this week

What every game does to each team's playoff, conference-title and bowl chances, with the odds if they win and if they lose.

All 49 games by kickoff Scores and schedule

The biggest game this week

If Alabama beats Texas A&M, its playoff chances go from 60% to 70%. If it loses, they drop to 44%.

Texas A&MatNo. 13 Alabama

Sat, Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · ABC · Alabama −13.5

The other races, each way it can go

If Texas A&M wins (38% likely)

National titleTexas A&M2% → ▲3%Alabama8% → ▼6%
Conference titleTexas A&M1% → 1%Alabama13% → ▼3%
BowlTexas A&M86% → ▲97%Alabama100% → 100%

If Alabama wins (62% likely)

National titleAlabama8% → ▲9%Texas A&M2% → ▼1%
Conference titleAlabama13% → ▲18%Texas A&M1% → ▼0%
BowlAlabama100% → 100%Texas A&M86% → ▼79%

Game preview ›

Next biggest games

Last week: Indiana lost and went from 36% to 23% (we had said 26%). See last week's calls

Pick a row to see what a win or a loss does. Only those two teams move.

Who is in the playoff race

Each team's chance to make the 12-team field, highest first. The dot is today; the bars run to the odds with a loss and with a win.

▼ odds with a loss · ● today · ▲ odds with a winRanks are the AP poll. The odds count what is left to play, so a No. 5 team can sit at 35%.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
Ohio StateNo. 3 · 6-184Off this week
GeorgiaNo. 5 · 6-183Off this week
MiamiNo. 1 · 6-0vs PittsburghSat 12:00 PM ET · ESPN79▼68 ▲81Try itPreview ›
Notre DameNo. 4 · 6-169Off this week
TexasNo. 19 · 4-2vs Ole MissSat 7:30 PM ET · ABC63▼50 ▲72Try itPreview ›
AlabamaNo. 13 · 5-2vs Texas A&MSat 3:30 PM ET · ABC60▼44 ▲70Try itPreview ›
Ole MissNo. 7 · 5-1at TexasSat 7:30 PM ET · ABC50▼40 ▲66Try itPreview ›
Texas TechNo. 8 · 6-0at CincinnatiSat 12:00 PM ET · FS148▼30 ▲52Try itPreview ›
KentuckyNo. 12 · 6-1vs VanderbiltSat 7:30 PM ET · SEC Network40▼25 ▲45Try itPreview ›
LSUNo. 18 · 5-2at AuburnSat 12:00 PM ET · ABC39▼24 ▲45Try itPreview ›
UCLANo. 9 · 6-0vs Michigan StateSat 3:30 PM ET · CBS38▼20 ▲41Try itPreview ›
TennesseeNo. 11 · 6-1at South CarolinaSat 3:30 PM ET · ESPN37▼27 ▲48Try itPreview ›
Above the line: the 12 most likely to make the field. The 12th team is at 37%Outside the top 12
FloridaNo. 20 · 5-234Off this week
USCNo. 16 · 6-1at WisconsinSat 7:30 PM ET · NBC34▼21 ▲41Try itPreview ›
Boise StateNo. 21 · 5-1at Washington StateSat 6:00 PM ET · USA31▼21 ▲37Try itPreview ›
BYUNo. 2 · 6-0at UCFSat 3:30 PM ET · FOX27▼16 ▲33Try itPreview ›
Oregon4-2at IllinoisSat 3:00 PM ET · BTN26▼12 ▲29Try itPreview ›
UtahNo. 10 · 6-0vs HoustonSat 10:15 PM ET · ESPN25▼14 ▲33Try itPreview ›
IndianaNo. 6 · 6-1at MichiganSat 12:00 PM ET · FOX23▼13 ▲32Try itPreview ›
MissouriNo. 22 · 5-220Off this week
HoustonNo. 14 · 6-1at UtahSat 10:15 PM ET · ESPN19▼9 ▲30Try itPreview ›
Texas A&M4-3at AlabamaSat 3:30 PM ET · ABC18▼11 ▲27Try itPreview ›
Oregon State5-218Off this week
SMUNo. 23 · 5-1vs CaliforniaSat 12:00 PM ET · The CW15▼7 ▲17Try itPreview ›
James Madison7-113Off this week
Wake ForestNo. 17 · 6-111Off this week
NorthwesternNo. 24 · 5-1vs RutgersSat 12:00 PM ET10▼4 ▲12Try itPreview ›
UTSA6-1at TulaneSat 8:00 PM ET · ESPNU10▼5 ▲14Try itPreview ›

The conference title races

Every conference on the same 0 to 100 scale, the conferences with the most at stake this week first.

Mountain West

New Mexico leads at 43%. Saturday takes New Mexico to 49% with a win or 31% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
New Mexico5-1vs North Dakota StateSat 10:00 PM ET · The CW43▼31 ▲49Try itPreview ›
North Dakota State6-1at New MexicoSat 10:00 PM ET · The CW29▼24 ▲40Try itPreview ›
UNLV4-318Off this week

American Athletic

UTSA leads at 32%. Saturday takes UTSA to 40% with a win or 23% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
UTSA6-1at TulaneSat 8:00 PM ET · ESPNU32▼23 ▲40Try itPreview ›
Memphis6-224Off this week
North Texas4-2at NavySat 3:30 PM ET · CBSSN19▼10 ▲21Try itPreview ›
South Florida5-26Off this week
Tulane3-3vs UTSASat 8:00 PM ET · ESPNU6▼2 ▲9Try itPreview ›

Big 12

Texas Tech leads at 38%. Saturday takes Texas Tech to 41% with a win or 26% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
Texas TechNo. 8 · 6-0at CincinnatiSat 12:00 PM ET · FS138▼26 ▲41Try itPreview ›
BYUNo. 2 · 6-0at UCFSat 3:30 PM ET · FOX20▼13 ▲25Try itPreview ›
UtahNo. 10 · 6-0vs HoustonSat 10:15 PM ET · ESPN19▼11 ▲25Try itPreview ›
HoustonNo. 14 · 6-1at UtahSat 10:15 PM ET · ESPN14▼7 ▲23Try itPreview ›
ArizonaNo. 25 · 5-1vs Iowa StateSat 7:30 PM ET · ESPN26▼2 ▲6Try itPreview ›

Sun Belt

James Madison leads at 43%.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
James Madison7-143Off this week
Louisiana5-2at Southern MissSat 5:00 PM ET20▼11 ▲27Try itPreview ›
Louisiana Tech4-2vs Old DominionSat 5:00 PM ET11▼5 ▲13Try itPreview ›
Georgia State4-2at Arkansas StateSat 7:00 PM ET5▼2 ▲8Try itPreview ›
Georgia Southern3-45Off this week

Mid-American

Western Michigan leads at 45%. Saturday takes Western Michigan to 53% with a win or 37% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
Western Michigan5-2at ToledoSat 12:00 PM ET · CBSSN45▼37 ▲53Try itPreview ›
Ohio5-2vs Eastern MichiganSat 4:00 PM ET · ESPNU26▼18 ▲31Try itPreview ›
Toledo5-2vs Western MichiganSat 12:00 PM ET · CBSSN15▼7 ▲22Try itPreview ›
Miami (OH)4-3at Central MichiganSat 1:00 PM ET6▼3 ▲9Try itPreview ›

SEC

Georgia leads at 41%.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
GeorgiaNo. 5 · 6-141Off this week
Ole MissNo. 7 · 5-1at TexasSat 7:30 PM ET · ABC14▼8 ▲22Try itPreview ›
AlabamaNo. 13 · 5-2vs Texas A&MSat 3:30 PM ET · ABC13▼3 ▲18Try itPreview ›
TennesseeNo. 11 · 6-1at South CarolinaSat 3:30 PM ET · ESPN7▼3 ▲12Try itPreview ›
TexasNo. 19 · 4-2vs Ole MissSat 7:30 PM ET · ABC7▼1 ▲10Try itPreview ›
KentuckyNo. 12 · 6-1vs VanderbiltSat 7:30 PM ET · SEC Network6▼2 ▲7Try itPreview ›

Big Ten

Ohio State leads at 50%.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
Ohio StateNo. 3 · 6-150Off this week
UCLANo. 9 · 6-0vs Michigan StateSat 3:30 PM ET · CBS17▼8 ▲18Try itPreview ›
Oregon4-2at IllinoisSat 3:00 PM ET · BTN11▼3 ▲12Try itPreview ›
USCNo. 16 · 6-1at WisconsinSat 7:30 PM ET · NBC9▼3 ▲12Try itPreview ›
IndianaNo. 6 · 6-1at MichiganSat 12:00 PM ET · FOX7▼3 ▲11Try itPreview ›

Pac-12

Boise State leads at 42%. Saturday takes Boise State to 46% with a win or 36% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
Boise StateNo. 21 · 5-1at Washington StateSat 6:00 PM ET · USA42▼36 ▲46Try itPreview ›
Oregon State5-237Off this week
Texas State3-3vs Utah StateSat 7:30 PM ET · CBSSN10▼4 ▲11Try itPreview ›
San Diego State3-4at Colorado StateSat 6:30 PM ET · The CW6▼3 ▲9Try itPreview ›

ACC

Miami leads at 67%. Saturday takes Miami to 68% with a win or 62% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
MiamiNo. 1 · 6-0vs PittsburghSat 12:00 PM ET · ESPN67▼62 ▲68Try itPreview ›
SMUNo. 23 · 5-1vs CaliforniaSat 12:00 PM ET · The CW13▼7 ▲15Try itPreview ›
Wake ForestNo. 17 · 6-110Off this week

Conference USA

Liberty leads at 57%.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
Liberty6-157Off this week
Jacksonville State5-227Off this week
Western Kentucky3-49Off this week

The bowl chase: games for the sixth win

Small squares are this season's games: green won, red lost, outlined is still to play, ink is this week. The six larger slots fill with wins toward a bowl. Under each team: its chance of a sixth win now, after a loss and after a win.

West Virginia at TCU Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET

West Virginia4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 5 left45% now · 33% with a loss · 76% with a win
TCU3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 6 left68% now · 44% with a loss · 77% with a win

If West Virginia loses, it is left at 33%. If TCU loses, it is left at 44%.

San Diego State at Colorado State Sat, Oct 24 · 6:30 PM ET

San Diego State3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 4 left35% now · 12% with a loss · 52% with a win
Colorado State2 of 6 wins · needs 4 of 5 left5% now · 1% with a loss · 10% with a win

If San Diego State loses, it is left at 12%. If Colorado State loses, it is left at 1%.

Utah State at Texas State Sat, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET

Utah State2 of 6 wins · needs 4 of 5 left7% now · 3% with a loss · 19% with a win
Texas State3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 5 left60% now · 32% with a loss · 70% with a win

If Utah State loses, it is left at 3%. If Texas State loses, it is left at 32%.

Georgia State at Arkansas State Sat, Oct 24 · 7:00 PM ET

Georgia State4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 6 left91% now · 84% with a loss · 98% with a win
Arkansas State3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 5 left54% now · 36% with a loss · 73% with a win

If Georgia State loses, it is left at 84%. If Arkansas State loses, it is left at 36%.

Miami (OH) at Central Michigan Sat, Oct 24 · 1:00 PM ET

Miami (OH)4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 5 left84% now · 72% with a loss · 95% with a win
Central Michigan3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 5 left48% now · 31% with a loss · 68% with a win

If Miami (OH) loses, it is left at 72%. If Central Michigan loses, it is left at 31%.

Massachusetts at UConn Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET

Massachusetts4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 5 left33% now · 24% with a loss · 61% with a win
UConn3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 6 left84% now · 66% with a loss · 90% with a win

If Massachusetts loses, it is left at 24%. If UConn loses, it is left at 66%.

Kansas State at Arizona State Sat, Oct 24 · 3:45 PM ET

Kansas State4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 6 left93% now · 87% with a loss · 98% with a win
Arizona State3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 6 left48% now · 32% with a loss · 68% with a win

If Kansas State loses, it is left at 87%. If Arizona State loses, it is left at 32%.

Bowling Green at Buffalo Sat, Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET

Bowling Green2 of 6 wins · needs 4 of 5 left7% now · 1% with a loss · 13% with a win
Buffalo4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 5 left44% now · 22% with a loss · 58% with a win

If Bowling Green loses, it is left at 1%. If Buffalo loses, it is left at 22%.

Oklahoma at Mississippi State Sat, Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET

Oklahoma3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 6 left51% now · 34% with a loss · 67% with a win
Mississippi State4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 6 left94% now · 89% with a loss · 100% with a win

If Oklahoma loses, it is left at 34%. If Mississippi State loses, it is left at 89%.

Colorado at Oklahoma State Sat, Oct 24 · 7:00 PM ET

Colorado2 of 6 wins · needs 4 of 6 left24% now · 12% with a loss · 38% with a win
Oklahoma State4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 6 left76% now · 61% with a loss · 90% with a win

If Colorado loses, it is left at 12%. If Oklahoma State loses, it is left at 61%.

NC State at Stanford Fri, Oct 23 · 10:30 PM ET

NC State3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 6 left76% now · 58% with a loss · 85% with a win
Stanford3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 5 left12% now · 5% with a loss · 25% with a win

If NC State loses, it is left at 58%. If Stanford loses, it is left at 5%.

Duke at Virginia Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET

Duke4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 6 left78% now · 68% with a loss · 94% with a win
Virginia4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 5 left80% now · 65% with a loss · 92% with a win

If Duke loses, it is left at 68%. If Virginia loses, it is left at 65%.

Baylor at Kansas Sat, Oct 24 · 1:00 PM ET

Baylor4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 6 left89% now · 80% with a loss · 97% with a win
Kansas2 of 6 wins · needs 4 of 6 left26% now · 14% with a loss · 41% with a win

If Baylor loses, it is left at 80%. If Kansas loses, it is left at 14%.

Boston College at Georgia Tech Sat, Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET

Boston College3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 6 left15% now · 7% with a loss · 33% with a win
Georgia Tech2 of 6 wins · needs 4 of 6 left15% now · 4% with a loss · 19% with a win

If Boston College loses, it is left at 7%. If Georgia Tech loses, it is left at 4%.

Syracuse at North Carolina Sat, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET

Syracuse2 of 6 wins · needs 4 of 6 left18% now · 8% with a loss · 31% with a win
North Carolina4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 6 left87% now · 75% with a loss · 95% with a win

If Syracuse loses, it is left at 8%. If North Carolina loses, it is left at 75%.

San José State at Nevada Sat, Oct 24 · 5:00 PM ET

San José State4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 6 left80% now · 72% with a loss · 94% with a win
Nevada2 of 6 wins · needs 4 of 6 left20% now · 7% with a loss · 28% with a win

If San José State loses, it is left at 72%. If Nevada loses, it is left at 7%.

Army at Tulsa Fri, Oct 23 · 8:30 PM ET

Army4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 6 left83% now · 79% with a loss · 97% with a win
Tulsa4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 5 left92% now · 78% with a loss · 97% with a win

If Army loses, it is left at 79%. If Tulsa loses, it is left at 78%.

Old Dominion at Louisiana Tech Sat, Oct 24 · 5:00 PM ET

Old Dominion2 of 6 wins · needs 4 of 5 left6% now · 2% with a loss · 14% with a win
Louisiana Tech4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 6 left92% now · 82% with a loss · 97% with a win

If Old Dominion loses, it is left at 2%. If Louisiana Tech loses, it is left at 82%.

Last week's calls: our playoff odds before the game, and where they landed

Indiana lost to Ohio State: 36% → 23%We had said 50% with a win and 26% with a loss.
Missouri lost to Ole Miss: 36% → 20%We had said 49% with a win and 27% with a loss.
UCLA won over Wisconsin: 34% → 38%We had said 41% with a win and 20% with a loss.
Ole Miss won over Missouri: 32% → 49%We had said 39% with a win and 19% with a loss.
Texas Tech won over Arizona State: 44% → 47%We had said 47% with a win and 28% with a loss.
Ohio State won over Indiana: 75% → 84%We had said 83% with a win and 64% with a loss.

How these odds are made49 games to play · 2026 season, Week 8Full playoff forecast Scores and schedule Wildest games