2Louisiana shifts fanbase identity, redefining program.
Michael Desormeaux's fifth season opens with a 6-7 losing record, raising questions about whether the Ragin' Cajuns can sustain their identity beyond the Napier era.
2Michael Desormeaux's fifth season opens with a 6-7 losing record, raising questions about whether the Ragin' Cajuns can sustain their identity beyond the Napier era.
Louisiana won four straight Sun Belt titles when Billy Napier was in Lafayette — and has spent every year since trying to prove the dynasty was the program, not the man who left for Florida.
Fans point to four straight conference titles and a top-20 ranking and ask why the national conversation still files them under generic Sun Belt mid-pack — as if the best run any Sun Belt program ever…
Approaching
31 days
until kickoff · vs Lamar · Sun Sep 6 · 00:00 UTC
Louisiana is the Sun Belt program whose 2018-2021 Billy Napier 4-consecutive-Sun-Belt-championships + Cajun Field + Ragin' Cajuns identity define what Lafayette-Sun-Belt-football looks like.
With a moderate continuity rate and significant portal churn, Louisiana faces a pivotal year in rebuilding its program.
Cayenne the Ragin' Cajun is patient.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Michael Desormeaux's fifth season opens with a 6-7 losing record, raising questions about whether the Ragin' Cajuns can sustain their identity beyond the Napier era.
Louisiana collapsed 52 spots in SP+ — the 6-7 record and #91 talent rank reveal a stark disconnect from the Napier-era dominance that still defines the Ragin' Cajuns' identity in the Sun Belt.
Shelton Sampson Jr. is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
Shelton Sampson Jr. produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
Caden Jensen is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Shelton Sampson Jr. is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Louisiana collapsed 52 spots in SP+ under Michael Desormeaux — a fanbase built on Billy Napier’s four straight Sun Belt titles now faces its steepest drop since that dynasty.
Ansinneo Charles commits to Louisiana
Desormeaux's backfield had one NFL departure and real pressure to reload depth — Charles is the homegrown answer to a position room that couldn't afford a thin class at #81 nationally.
5-star OL commits to Notre Dame
The No. 2 IOL in the country picking Notre Dame over the field ripples straight into the Sun Belt — Desormeaux's center room was already thin enough that this chart was worth publishing.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2020
96th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Louisiana · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Louisiana: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 2 of 8 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Louisiana enters 2026 rated No. 105 in 2025 SP+ (-10.1), down 52 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 3 of 8 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Opens Sep 6
vs Lamar · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
LA leads the 2026 class with 14 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
81 signees across 8 states, 2023-2026. LA leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Recovering 75% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~49% league rate.
9 of 12 forced fumbles recovered; 5 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Converting 23% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
9 interceptions of 39 disrupted passes (30 deflected, 9 intercepted), 2025 only.
Winning the penalty battle: 77 penalties committed vs. 85 drawn on opponents, a 241-yard edge.
605 penalty yards committed vs. 846 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 2 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Louisiana fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Everyone told JMU when you are getting blown out it’s easy to drop 35 points and 500 yards so pretty shocked Bama didn’t have a big second half
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
~ our readLouisiana fans are down on the program, with almost nothing concrete behind it yet.
✓ counted We read 66 posts from Louisiana fans this week.
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Louisiana · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.19 EPA/play | 2 | 12 | 127 / 216 | 58.8 | 1555 | 7.2 | 11 | 7 | 129.6 | 49.1 | 6.2 | 5.3 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage41.3% 96th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry4.4 84th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Lunch Winfield's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · -0.01 EPA/play | 11 | 5 | 42 / 84 | 50 | 385 | 4.6 | 1 | 4 | 82.9 | 13.8 | 2.2 | 5.6 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt4.8 bottom 2th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate4.8% bottom 4th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Daniel Beale's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.13 EPA/play | 4 | 6 | 18 / 41 | 43.9 | 155 | 3.8 | 0 | 3 | 61.0 | 19.2 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · -0.02 EPA/play | 7 | 13 | 158 | 763 | 4.8 | 6 | 76 | 10.2 | 14.8 | 23.0 | 12.2 | 5.7% (15/264) | |
Yards by week → Workhorse· Boom-or-bustBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight235 lb 97th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share6.0% bottom 19th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Bill Davis's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.03 EPA/play | 3 | 12 | 138 | 689 | 5.0 | 8 | 84 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 17.6 | 13.7 | 7.6% (20/264) | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior View Zylan Perry's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.20 EPA/play | 24 | 10 | 30 | 156 | 5.2 | 2 | 34 | 4 | 4.3 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.84 EPA/play | 6 | 9 | 32 | 537 | 16.8 | 6 #62 FBS | 45 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 14.8% (39/264) | |
Yards by week → Deep Threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception17.5 86th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate18.8% 95th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Shelton Sampson Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.39 EPA/play | — | 12 | 25 | 309 | 12.4 | 0 | 44 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 15.5% (41/264) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.8 bottom 46th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Robert Williams's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.51 EPA/play | 13 | 11 | 15 | 250 | 16.7 | 1 | 45 | 4 | 5.3 | 7.6% (20/264) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception20.5 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume15 bottom 14th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Charles Robertson's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.05 EPA/play | 88 | 10 | 29 | 231 | 8.0 | 1 | 40 | 6 | 9.2 | 15.5% (41/264) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.8 bottom 27th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.0 bottom 9th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caden Jensen's full player page | |||||||||||
| +1.12 EPA/play | 19 | 7 | 6 | 134 | 22.3 | 2 | 69 | 5 | 6.9 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.20 EPA/play | 83 | 7 | 12 | 108 | 9 | 1 | 35 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 6.1% (16/264) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · junior View Brock Chappell's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · -0.14 EPA/play | 86 | 10 | 13 | 102 | 7.8 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 4.4 | 8.7% (23/264) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception7.8 bottom 19th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.1 bottom 3th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Trey Miller's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.41 EPA/play | 23 | 5 | 10 | 78 | 7.8 | 0 | 14 | 4.9 | 2.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.28 EPA/play | 18 | 5 | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 0 | 14 | 1.4 | 5.6 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.26 EPA/play | 8 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 1 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | — | 13 | 52 | 27 | 14.5 #25 FBS | 4.5 | 9 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2020 class View Jordan Lawson's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 90 | 13 | 28 | 9 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 83th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 93 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior View Jaelen Crider's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 68 | 11 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 78th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 25th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate7.1% bottom 22th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Maxie Baudoin IV's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 41 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate4.2% bottom 8th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Chase Edwards's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 91 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Priest Ashe's full player page | |||||||
| 99 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 97 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 3 | 13 | 124 | 64 | 60 | 13 #42 FBS | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume124 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate10.5% 56th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 37th to 97th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 13 | 95 | 51 | 44 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume95 94th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.6% bottom 17th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 53rd percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 3rd | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 44 | 12 | 50 | 22 | 28 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior View Jake St. Andre's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 9 | 11 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate5.0% bottom 27th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 87th percentile among FBS LBs to the 44th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 45 | 10 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior View Caleb Kibodi's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 17 | 11 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.5% 67th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume20 bottom 14th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ashley Williams's full player page | |||||||||
| 31 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 80 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 11 | 12 | 62 | 11 #12 FBS | 1 | 1 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate17.7% 91th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Brent Gordon Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 4 | 11 | 55 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume55 73th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Tyree Skipper's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 12 | 48 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Courtline Flowers's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 9 | 47 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.4% bottom 42th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Maurion Eleam's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 12 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 67th percentile among FBS Ss, fell to 2nd, now back up to 45th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 35 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Collin Jacob's full player pagePD rate3.1% bottom 26th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 20 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Trae Tomlinson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 46 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Lake Bates's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 6 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Kody Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| 10 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 95 | 13 | 20/28 | 71.4 | 38/38 | 98 | 55 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 92 | 13 | 52 | 2186 | 42 | 57 | 9 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 4 | 9 | 318 | 35.3 | 1 | 96 | |
| Possession Receiver · +0.39 EPA/play | — | 12 | 17 | 315 | 18.5 | 0 | 50 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.39 EPA/play | — | 12 | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 | 13 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+18 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 31 | #52 | #92 | -9.5 | Rice | L 12–14 123 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #58 | #162 | -19.5 | McNeese | W 34–10 123 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #63 | #22 | +27.5 | @Missouri | L 10–52 122 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #70 | #174 | -1.5 | @Eastern Michigan | L 31–34 134 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 28 | #74 | #90 | +1.5 | Marshall | W 54–51 153 | 2-3 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #95 | #50 | +18.5 | @James Madison | L 14–24 134 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #94 | #127 | +4.5 | Southern Miss | L 10–22 134 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #100 | #83 | +7 | @Troy | L 23–35 128 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #110 | #117 | +3.5 | @South Alabama | W 31–22 132 | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #100 | #81 | +3.5 | Texas State | W 42–39 136 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| 13 | Nov 21 | #102 | #146 | +2.5 | @Arkansas State | W 34–30 149 | 5-6 | 3-3 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #101 | #200 | -11.5 | UL Monroe | W 30–27 144 | 6-6 | 4-3 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 16 | Dec 18 | #115 | #146 | -1.5 | Delaware (N) | L 13–20 | 6-7 | 4-3 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18 | Delaware | L 13–20 | — | — | — | +0.053 | 38.0% | 112.3% | One-score loss |
| Nov 29 | UL Monroe | W 30–27 | 338 | 0 | 29:52 | +0.025 | 30.4% | 129.3% | One-score win |
| Nov 21 | @Arkansas State | W 34–30 | 349 | 1 | 33:59 | +0.097 | 39.2% | 126.1% | One-score win |
| Nov 8 | Texas State | W 42–39 | 384 | 2 | 37:58 | +0.249 | 40.2% | 120.7% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 1 | @South Alabama | W 31–22 | 393 | 0 | 32:54 | +0.211 | 44.6% | 129.1% | |
| Oct 25 | @Troy | L 23–35 | 371 | 3 | 29:28 | +0.045 | 46.3% | 129.3% | |
| Oct 18 | Southern Miss | L 10–22 | 352 | 3 | 35:31 | +0.077 | 48.3% | 64.3% | Best success rate |
| Oct 11 | @James Madison | L 14–24 | 288 | 1 | 23:09 | +0.011 | 21.4% | 178.3% | Most explosive |
| Sep 28 | Marshall | W 54–51 | 461 | 2 | 29:32 | +0.116 | 43.3% | 115.3% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | @Eastern Michigan | L 31–34 | 441 | 2 | 29:59 | +0.294 | 40.6% | 138.1% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | @Missouri | L 10–52 | 121 | 0 | 17:09 | -0.082 | 20.6% | 143.7% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 7 | McNeese | W 34–10 | 401 | 0 | 34:17 | +0.205 | 45.3% | 109.5% | Best defensive stand |
| Aug 31 | Rice | L 12–14 | 239 | 2 | 23:36 | +0.043 | 31.0% | 127.0% | One-score loss |
| Season average (13 games) | 345 | 1.3 | +0.103 | 37.6% | 124.9% | ||||
Louisiana fields a struggling run-heavy offense behind a leaky, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
19th percentile quality, 73rd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 33rd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 35th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
24th percentile success on standard downs, 23rd on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 52nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 20th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.10; 41st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.12 raw vs. 0.00 adjusted.
Louisiana reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 28%) and rushing epa (top 44%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where Louisiana sits at the 9th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Louisiana
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Louisiana · 2018-present
75% home win rate vs 61% on the road. margin runs +11.2 better at home. Cajun Field seats 41,426, averaging 42% full (17,396 attendance, 25 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Bill Davis and Zylan Perry split the carries (151/283 vs 132/283) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Robert Williams (WR) and Caden Jensen (TE) split the targets (40/81 vs 41/81) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Robert Williams produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
The biggest shift: 4th-down go rate moved down 13 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Louisiana’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.9% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 158-play sample) — mid-pack, 115 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
75°F average kickoff temp; 15% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 71 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Louisiana's 2014–2025 record is 91-63. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1902 · 91 seasons · .435 win rate
Louisiana won four straight Sun Belt titles under Billy Napier. Napier left for Florida after 2021. The Ragin' Cajuns went 6-7 in 2025 and lost a bowl game to Delaware. The program is still deciding whether the dynasty was the building or the man who left.
The Napier years were the best run any Sun Belt program has ever produced. Four consecutive conference championships from 2018 to 2021. A 13-1 season and a No. 19 final ranking in 2021 that put Lafayette on the national map in a way that stuck. The Cajuns weren't a surprise mid-major; they were the Sun Belt's standard, playing physical trench football with an identity rooted in Cajun Acadiana and backed by a fanbase that treats Geaux Cajuns as a birthright. Then Napier left for Florida, and the question has been live ever since.
Michael Desormeaux, Napier's hand-picked successor, was supposed to be the continuity argument. Four seasons in, the answer is complicated: he maintained a 5-3 Sun Belt record in 2025 but finished 6-7 overall and lost the 68 Ventures Bowl 20-13 to Delaware — the program's first losing year in the modern FBS era of relevance. A bowl loss to Delaware is the kind of result that reopens every question Lafayette had thought it answered. The internal fracture is patient vs impatient: give Desormeaux the time to rebuild vs accept that the four-title window quietly closed when Napier walked.
The 2026 Sun Belt race is the most direct referendum Louisiana has had since the dynasty ended. The conference has caught up — James Madison arrived with a Playoff berth in 2025, Louisiana Tech joins the Sun Belt as a full member this July — and the Cajuns enter as a program trying to reclaim a standard it set, not claim one it's aiming for. That's a different kind of pressure than the Napier years knew. Desormeaux has to prove the blueprint survived the architect.
Physical, run-first Sun Belt football — the Napier template of trench play, ball control, and disciplined defense that made Lafayette a league bully for four straight years. Desormeaux has maintained the scheme philosophy without yet matching the execution — the 2025 portal class and the depth behind the starting lineup are the most-watched variables entering 2026. Cajun Field tailgating is a cultural institution in Acadiana, and the fan base brings an identity that goes well beyond conference standing.
Louisiana 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.08 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 6-7
Louisiana: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
Sun Belt Standing · 2025
Louisiana is 8th of 14 in the Sun Belt at 4-3. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 8-0 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | 6-2 |
| 3 | Southern Miss | 5-3 |
| 4 | Troy | 5-3 |
| 5 | Coastal Carolina | 5-4 |
| 6 | Georgia Southern | 5-4 |
| 7 | Arkansas State | 4-3 |
| 8 | Louisiana | 4-3 |
| 9 | South Alabama | 3-4 |
| 10 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 |
| 11 | Marshall | 2-5 |
| 12 | App State | 2-7 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | 1-6 |
| 14 | Georgia State | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Louisiana
Michael Desormeaux has held the program for 5 seasons — the era is established.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2018
Billy Napier's 2018-2021 tenure produced 4 consecutive Sun Belt championships + the 2021 13-1 + #19 final AP rank + multiple bowl wins. The Napier era's recruiting + coaching tree + departure to Florida (2022) gave Louisiana permanent national-narrative weight. The 2021 13-win season is the program's all-time peak.
since 1963
Louisiana's 'Ragin' Cajuns' identity + Cajun Field venue + Lafayette Acadiana cultural overlap + the French-Louisiana-heritage geographic catchment create a unique CFB identity. The 'Geaux Cajuns' fight cheer + the Mardi Gras spillover + the cuisine + the Acadian-cultural-pride combine into permanent program identity.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
A 13-1 season, a fourth straight Sun Belt title, and the program's highest final ranking
2021
The dynasty's architect departs at the peak, opening the post-Napier question
Wound
Moment of the Year · Louisiana · 2025
Week 3 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — loss 20-13 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-4.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–20265 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes