Louisiana's numbers fell sharply. The model sees a program under real pressure.
- Coverage leans bullish — but with real dissent
- Win total 7.5 — line flat since open
- Louisiana collapsed 52 spots in SP+ — the 6-7 record and #91 talent rank reveal a stark…
How past storylines turned out
Louisiana's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
How it developed newest first
Louisiana: the fanbase's identity shifting.
why it mattersMichael Desormeaux's fifth season opens with a 6-7 losing record, raising questions about whether the Ragin' Cajuns can sustain their identity beyond the Napier era. ~ our read
Louisiana enters 2026 rated No. 105 in 2025 SP+ (-10.1), down 52 spots from 2024.
why it mattersLouisiana collapsed 52 spots in SP+ — the 6-7 record and #91 talent rank reveal a stark disconnect from the Napier-era dominance that still defines the Ragin' Cajuns' identity in the Sun Belt. ~ our read
Louisiana enters 2025 rated No. 105 in SP+ (-10.1), down 52 spots from 2024.
why it mattersLouisiana collapsed 52 spots in SP+ under Michael Desormeaux — a fanbase built on Billy Napier’s four straight Sun Belt titles now faces its steepest drop since that dynasty. ~ our read
Watch next
The non-obvious thing to track
The non-obvious consequence of a steep fall isn't one bad year — it's the recruiting and portal feedback loop. A 'they're down' narrative accelerates the attrition that drove the decline. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
~ our read
Rooms tap to switch
The 'the projection is underselling us' read — fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter — efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 23 of 71 board posts (32%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
The range the bull case vs the counter
“Recruit Reactions From Baylor's 36-19 Win Over Louisiana Tech”
“LSU PFF grades reveal biggest problems in Ole Miss loss”