The Zeitgeist List · Coaching

Who gets poached

Every active FBS head coach, with the chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator job: a move he chooses. Being pushed out is the hot seat’s number, shown beside it.

After week 8 of the 2026 season · updated nightly

The hottest names on the market right now: Lance Taylor (Western Michigan) 46%, Jason Eck (New Mexico) 41% and Spencer Danielson (Boise State) 39%. Tim Polasek (North Dakota State) is at 43%, but part of that is the model having no FBS record for him yet. The coordinator most likely to move up: Nate Potter (Boise State OC) 38%.

Pushed or pulled

Right now only two head coaches are at 10% or more on both numbers: Sonny Cumbie (Louisiana Tech) and Major Applewhite (South Alabama). The coaches other schools want are rarely the ones in trouble at home.

Wanted elsewhereWanted, and on the hot seatSettledOn the hot seatLance TaylorTim PolasekJason EckSpencer DanielsonJamey ChadwellSonny CumbieMajor ApplewhiteBryant VincentMike LocksleyJoe MoorheadSafe at homePushed out →StayingHired away →Lance Taylor, Western MichiganPoach watch 46% · Hot seat 2%Tim Polasek, North Dakota StatePoach watch 43% · Hot seat <1%Jason Eck, New MexicoPoach watch 41% · Hot seat <1%Spencer Danielson, Boise StatePoach watch 39% · Hot seat <1%Jamey Chadwell, LibertyPoach watch 33% · Hot seat <1%Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana TechPoach watch 22% · Hot seat 11%Major Applewhite, South AlabamaPoach watch 10% · Hot seat 11%Bryant Vincent, UL MonroePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 57%Mike Locksley, MarylandPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 54%Joe Moorhead, AkronPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 54%Alex Golesh, AuburnPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 1%Alex Mortensen, UABPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 3%Alonzo Carter, Sacramento StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 8%Barry Odom, PurduePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 11%Billy Napier, James MadisonPoach watch 18% · Hot seat <1%Bill Belichick, North CarolinaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 13%Bill O'Brien, Boston CollegePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 16%Blake Anderson, Southern MissPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 22%Blake Harrell, East CarolinaPoach watch 9.6% · Hot seat 7%Bob Chesney, UCLAPoach watch 6% · Hot seat <1%Brent Brennan, ArizonaPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 1%Brent Key, Georgia TechPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 28%Brent Venables, OklahomaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 9%Bret Bielema, IllinoisPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 6%Brian Hartline, South FloridaPoach watch 9% · Hot seat <1%Brian Newberry, NavyPoach watch 12% · Hot seat 7%Bronco Mendenhall, Utah StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 4%Butch Jones, Arkansas StatePoach watch 4% · Hot seat 13%Casey Woods, Missouri StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 2%Charles Huff, MemphisPoach watch 6% · Hot seat <1%Charles Kelly, Jacksonville StatePoach watch 6% · Hot seat <1%Chris Creighton, Eastern MichiganPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 41%Chuck Martin, Miami (OH)Poach watch 4% · Hot seat 24%Clark Lea, VanderbiltPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 20%Clay Helton, Georgia SouthernPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 5%Collin Klein, Kansas StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Curt Cignetti, IndianaPoach watch 7% · Hot seat <1%Dabo Swinney, ClemsonPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 5%Dan Lanning, OregonPoach watch 7% · Hot seat <1%Dan Mullen, UNLVPoach watch 12% · Hot seat 1%Dave Aranda, BaylorPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 9.7%Dave Doeren, NC StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 34%David Braun, NorthwesternPoach watch 9% · Hot seat 2%Deion Sanders, ColoradoPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 9%Dell McGee, Georgia StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 19%Derek Mason, Middle TennesseePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 13%Dowell Loggains, App StatePoach watch 5% · Hot seat 6%Eddie George, Bowling GreenPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 23%Eli Drinkwitz, MissouriPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 5%Eric Morris, Oklahoma StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 1%Fran Brown, SyracusePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 12%Gerad Parker, TroyPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 21%G.J. Kinne, Texas StatePoach watch 16% · Hot seat 1%Greg Schiano, RutgersPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 24%Jake Dickert, Wake ForestPoach watch 14% · Hot seat <1%JaMarcus Shephard, Oregon StatePoach watch 4% · Hot seat <1%James Franklin, Virginia TechPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Jason Candle, UConnPoach watch 4% · Hot seat <1%Jay Sawvel, WyomingPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 11%Jedd Fisch, WashingtonPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 5%Jeff Brohm, LouisvillePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Jeff Choate, NevadaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 31%Jeff Lebby, Mississippi StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 19%Jeff Monken, ArmyPoach watch 9% · Hot seat 4%Jeff Traylor, UTSAPoach watch 5% · Hot seat 1%Jerry Mack, Kennesaw StatePoach watch 5% · Hot seat 17%Jimmy Rogers, Iowa StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 2%Jim Mora, Colorado StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 2%Joey McGuire, Texas TechPoach watch 9.9% · Hot seat 1%Joe Harasymiak, MassachusettsPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 6%John Hauser, OhioPoach watch 11% · Hot seat <1%Jon Sumrall, FloridaPoach watch 3% · Hot seat <1%Josh Heupel, TennesseePoach watch 4% · Hot seat 1%Kalani Sitake, BYUPoach watch 11% · Hot seat 1%Kalen DeBoer, AlabamaPoach watch 3% · Hot seat <1%K.C. Keeler, TemplePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 12%Kenny Dillingham, Arizona StatePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 9%Ken Niumatalolo, San José StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 11%Kirby Moore, Washington StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 4%Kirby Smart, GeorgiaPoach watch 2% · Hot seat <1%Kirk Ferentz, IowaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 6%Kyle Whittingham, MichiganPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 1%Lance Leipold, KansasPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 18%Lane Kiffin, LSUPoach watch 3% · Hot seat <1%Lincoln Riley, USCPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%Luke Fickell, WisconsinPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 4%Manny Diaz, DukePoach watch 6% · Hot seat 2%Marcus Freeman, Notre DamePoach watch 12% · Hot seat <1%Mario Cristobal, MiamiPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Mark Carney, Kent StatePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 22%Matt Campbell, Penn StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Matt Drinkall, Central MichiganPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 4%Matt Entz, Fresno StatePoach watch 7% · Hot seat 1%Matt Rhule, NebraskaPoach watch 16% · Hot seat <1%Michael Desormeaux, LouisianaPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 3%Mike Elko, Texas A&MPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 6%Mike Jacobs, ToledoPoach watch 7% · Hot seat <1%Mike Norvell, Florida StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 13%Mike Uremovich, Ball StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 28%Morgan Scalley, UtahPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Neal Brown, North TexasPoach watch 9% · Hot seat <1%Pat Fitzgerald, Michigan StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 5%Pat Narduzzi, PittsburghPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 7%Pete Golding, Ole MissPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Pete Lembo, BuffaloPoach watch 9.9% · Hot seat 3%Phil Longo, Sam HoustonPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 17%P.J. Fleck, MinnesotaPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 15%Rhett Lashlee, SMUPoach watch 13% · Hot seat 2%Rich Rodriguez, West VirginiaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 26%Ricky Rahne, Old DominionPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 43%Ryan Beard, Coastal CarolinaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 3%Ryan Carty, DelawarePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 3%Ryan Day, Ohio StatePoach watch 8% · Hot seat <1%Ryan Silverfield, ArkansasPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 2%Scotty Walden, UTEPPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 53%Scott Abell, RicePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 22%Scott Frost, UCFPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 5%Scott Satterfield, CincinnatiPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 15%Sean Lewis, San Diego StatePoach watch 6% · Hot seat 19%Shane Beamer, South CarolinaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 9.5%Sonny Dykes, TCUPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 4%Steve Sarkisian, TexasPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%Tavita Pritchard, StanfordPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 3%Timmy Chang, Hawai'iPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 43%Tim Albin, CharlottePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 49%Tony Elliott, VirginiaPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 9.8%Tony Gibson, MarshallPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 2%Tony Sanchez, New Mexico StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 15%Tosh Lupoi, CaliforniaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 2%Tre Lamb, TulsaPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 5%Troy Calhoun, Air ForcePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 13%Tyson Helton, Western KentuckyPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 18%Willie Fritz, HoustonPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 2%Willie Simmons, Florida InternationalPoach watch 5% · Hot seat 8%Will Hall, TulanePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%Will Stein, KentuckyPoach watch 4% · Hot seat <1%Zach Kittley, Florida AtlanticPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 3%
Wanted elsewhereWanted, and on the hot seatSettledOn the hot seatTaylorPolasekEckCumbieVincentLocksleySafe at homePushed out →StayingHired away →Lance Taylor, Western MichiganPoach watch 46% · Hot seat 2%Tim Polasek, North Dakota StatePoach watch 43% · Hot seat <1%Jason Eck, New MexicoPoach watch 41% · Hot seat <1%Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana TechPoach watch 22% · Hot seat 11%Bryant Vincent, UL MonroePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 57%Mike Locksley, MarylandPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 54%Alex Golesh, AuburnPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 1%Alex Mortensen, UABPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 3%Alonzo Carter, Sacramento StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 8%Barry Odom, PurduePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 11%Billy Napier, James MadisonPoach watch 18% · Hot seat <1%Bill Belichick, North CarolinaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 13%Bill O'Brien, Boston CollegePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 16%Blake Anderson, Southern MissPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 22%Blake Harrell, East CarolinaPoach watch 9.6% · Hot seat 7%Bob Chesney, UCLAPoach watch 6% · Hot seat <1%Brent Brennan, ArizonaPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 1%Brent Key, Georgia TechPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 28%Brent Venables, OklahomaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 9%Bret Bielema, IllinoisPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 6%Brian Hartline, South FloridaPoach watch 9% · Hot seat <1%Brian Newberry, NavyPoach watch 12% · Hot seat 7%Bronco Mendenhall, Utah StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 4%Butch Jones, Arkansas StatePoach watch 4% · Hot seat 13%Casey Woods, Missouri StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 2%Charles Huff, MemphisPoach watch 6% · Hot seat <1%Charles Kelly, Jacksonville StatePoach watch 6% · Hot seat <1%Chris Creighton, Eastern MichiganPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 41%Chuck Martin, Miami (OH)Poach watch 4% · Hot seat 24%Clark Lea, VanderbiltPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 20%Clay Helton, Georgia SouthernPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 5%Collin Klein, Kansas StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Curt Cignetti, IndianaPoach watch 7% · Hot seat <1%Dabo Swinney, ClemsonPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 5%Dan Lanning, OregonPoach watch 7% · Hot seat <1%Dan Mullen, UNLVPoach watch 12% · Hot seat 1%Dave Aranda, BaylorPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 9.7%Dave Doeren, NC StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 34%David Braun, NorthwesternPoach watch 9% · Hot seat 2%Deion Sanders, ColoradoPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 9%Dell McGee, Georgia StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 19%Derek Mason, Middle TennesseePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 13%Dowell Loggains, App StatePoach watch 5% · Hot seat 6%Eddie George, Bowling GreenPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 23%Eli Drinkwitz, MissouriPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 5%Eric Morris, Oklahoma StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 1%Fran Brown, SyracusePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 12%Gerad Parker, TroyPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 21%G.J. Kinne, Texas StatePoach watch 16% · Hot seat 1%Greg Schiano, RutgersPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 24%Jake Dickert, Wake ForestPoach watch 14% · Hot seat <1%JaMarcus Shephard, Oregon StatePoach watch 4% · Hot seat <1%James Franklin, Virginia TechPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Jamey Chadwell, LibertyPoach watch 33% · Hot seat <1%Jason Candle, UConnPoach watch 4% · Hot seat <1%Jay Sawvel, WyomingPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 11%Jedd Fisch, WashingtonPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 5%Jeff Brohm, LouisvillePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Jeff Choate, NevadaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 31%Jeff Lebby, Mississippi StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 19%Jeff Monken, ArmyPoach watch 9% · Hot seat 4%Jeff Traylor, UTSAPoach watch 5% · Hot seat 1%Jerry Mack, Kennesaw StatePoach watch 5% · Hot seat 17%Jimmy Rogers, Iowa StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 2%Jim Mora, Colorado StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 2%Joey McGuire, Texas TechPoach watch 9.9% · Hot seat 1%Joe Harasymiak, MassachusettsPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 6%Joe Moorhead, AkronPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 54%John Hauser, OhioPoach watch 11% · Hot seat <1%Jon Sumrall, FloridaPoach watch 3% · Hot seat <1%Josh Heupel, TennesseePoach watch 4% · Hot seat 1%Kalani Sitake, BYUPoach watch 11% · Hot seat 1%Kalen DeBoer, AlabamaPoach watch 3% · Hot seat <1%K.C. Keeler, TemplePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 12%Kenny Dillingham, Arizona StatePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 9%Ken Niumatalolo, San José StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 11%Kirby Moore, Washington StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 4%Kirby Smart, GeorgiaPoach watch 2% · Hot seat <1%Kirk Ferentz, IowaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 6%Kyle Whittingham, MichiganPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 1%Lance Leipold, KansasPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 18%Lane Kiffin, LSUPoach watch 3% · Hot seat <1%Lincoln Riley, USCPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%Luke Fickell, WisconsinPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 4%Major Applewhite, South AlabamaPoach watch 10% · Hot seat 11%Manny Diaz, DukePoach watch 6% · Hot seat 2%Marcus Freeman, Notre DamePoach watch 12% · Hot seat <1%Mario Cristobal, MiamiPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Mark Carney, Kent StatePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 22%Matt Campbell, Penn StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Matt Drinkall, Central MichiganPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 4%Matt Entz, Fresno StatePoach watch 7% · Hot seat 1%Matt Rhule, NebraskaPoach watch 16% · Hot seat <1%Michael Desormeaux, LouisianaPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 3%Mike Elko, Texas A&MPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 6%Mike Jacobs, ToledoPoach watch 7% · Hot seat <1%Mike Norvell, Florida StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 13%Mike Uremovich, Ball StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 28%Morgan Scalley, UtahPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Neal Brown, North TexasPoach watch 9% · Hot seat <1%Pat Fitzgerald, Michigan StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 5%Pat Narduzzi, PittsburghPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 7%Pete Golding, Ole MissPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Pete Lembo, BuffaloPoach watch 9.9% · Hot seat 3%Phil Longo, Sam HoustonPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 17%P.J. Fleck, MinnesotaPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 15%Rhett Lashlee, SMUPoach watch 13% · Hot seat 2%Rich Rodriguez, West VirginiaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 26%Ricky Rahne, Old DominionPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 43%Ryan Beard, Coastal CarolinaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 3%Ryan Carty, DelawarePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 3%Ryan Day, Ohio StatePoach watch 8% · Hot seat <1%Ryan Silverfield, ArkansasPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 2%Scotty Walden, UTEPPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 53%Scott Abell, RicePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 22%Scott Frost, UCFPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 5%Scott Satterfield, CincinnatiPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 15%Sean Lewis, San Diego StatePoach watch 6% · Hot seat 19%Shane Beamer, South CarolinaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 9.5%Sonny Dykes, TCUPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 4%Spencer Danielson, Boise StatePoach watch 39% · Hot seat <1%Steve Sarkisian, TexasPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%Tavita Pritchard, StanfordPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 3%Timmy Chang, Hawai'iPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 43%Tim Albin, CharlottePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 49%Tony Elliott, VirginiaPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 9.8%Tony Gibson, MarshallPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 2%Tony Sanchez, New Mexico StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 15%Tosh Lupoi, CaliforniaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 2%Tre Lamb, TulsaPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 5%Troy Calhoun, Air ForcePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 13%Tyson Helton, Western KentuckyPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 18%Willie Fritz, HoustonPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 2%Willie Simmons, Florida InternationalPoach watch 5% · Hot seat 8%Will Hall, TulanePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%Will Stein, KentuckyPoach watch 4% · Hot seat <1%Zach Kittley, Florida AtlanticPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 3%

Each dot is a head coach. Across: the hot seat, the chance his school pushes him out by the end of this season. Up: Poach watch, the chance he leaves this winter for a job he chooses. The white lines mark 10% on each. Both scales stretch the low end so the crowd of small chances spreads out. Hover a dot to see whose it is; every coach is also in the table below.

Every head coach

Settled under 10% · Noticed 10–20% · Wanted 20–35% · Coveted 35% and up. Words for the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

Coveted

35% and up · 4 coaches

#Poach watchCoachHot seatWhat drives his number
146%Lance Taylor Western Michigan2% Cool▲His team is 5-2, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points a game
243%Tim Polasek North Dakota State<1% Cool▲His team is 6-1, outscoring opponents by 18.1 points a game
341%Jason Eck New Mexico<1% Cool▲His team is 5-1, outscoring opponents by 29.2 points a game
439%Spencer Danielson Boise State<1% Cool▲His 3rd season at Boise State

Wanted

20–35% · 2 coaches

#Poach watchCoachHot seatWhat drives his number
533%Jamey Chadwell Liberty<1% Cool▲His team is 6-1, outscoring opponents by 17.6 points a game
622%Sonny Cumbie Louisiana Tech11% Warm▲His team is 4-2, outscoring opponents by 8.8 points a game

Noticed

10–20% · 11 coaches

#Poach watchCoachHot seatWhat drives his number
718%Billy Napier James Madison<1% Cool▲His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 23.1 points a game
816%Matt Rhule Nebraska<1% Cool▲Age 51 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in, a former NFL head coach
916%G.J. Kinne Texas State1% Cool▲His 4th season at Texas State
1014%Jake Dickert Wake Forest<1% Cool▲Age 43 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
1113%Rhett Lashlee SMU2% Cool▲Age 43 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
1212%Brian Newberry Navy7% Cool▲His 4th season at Navy
1312%Marcus Freeman Notre Dame<1% Cool▲Age 40 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
1412%Dan Mullen UNLV1% Cool▲His team is 4-3, outscoring opponents by 0.4 points a game
1511%Kalani Sitake BYU1% Cool▲His team is 6-0, outscoring opponents by 18.3 points a game · AP-ranked
1611%John Hauser Ohio<1% Cool▼His first season at Ohio
1710%Major Applewhite South Alabama11% Warm▲His 3rd season at South Alabama

Settled

under 10% · 120 coaches

Show the 120 Settled
#Poach watchCoachHot seatWhat drives his number
189.9%Joey McGuire Texas Tech1% Cool▲His team is 6-0, outscoring opponents by 20.2 points a game · AP-ranked
199.9%Pete Lembo Buffalo3% Cool▲His 3rd season at Buffalo
209.6%Blake Harrell East Carolina7% Cool▲Age 47 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
219%David Braun Northwestern2% Cool▲His 4th season at Northwestern
229%Neal Brown North Texas<1% Cool▼His first season at North Texas
239%Jeff Monken Army4% Cool▲His team is 4-2, outscoring opponents by 14.8 points a game
249%Brian Hartline South Florida<1% Cool▼His first season at South Florida
258%Brent Brennan Arizona1% Cool▲His 3rd season at Arizona
268%Ryan Day Ohio State<1% Cool▲Age 47 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
278%Matt Drinkall Central Michigan4% Cool▲Paid $622,450 in 2025, the 3rd percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
288%Michael Desormeaux Louisiana3% Cool▲His team is 5-2, outscoring opponents by 10.7 points a game
297%Tyson Helton Western Kentucky18% Warm▲Age 49 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
307%Clay Helton Georgia Southern5% Cool▲Paid $900,000 in 2025, the 19th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 12% on the season before
317%Curt Cignetti Indiana<1% Cool▼Age 65 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
327%Dan Lanning Oregon<1% Cool▲Age 40 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
337%Mike Jacobs Toledo<1% Cool▼His first season at Toledo
347%Ricky Rahne Old Dominion43% Boiling▲Age 46 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
357%Gerad Parker Troy21% Hot▲His 3rd season at Troy
367%Matt Entz Fresno State1% Cool▲His team is 4-3, outscoring opponents by 6.7 points a game
377%Tony Elliott Virginia9.8% Cool▲Age 46 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
386%Manny Diaz Duke2% Cool▲His 3rd season at Duke
396%Bob Chesney UCLA<1% Cool▼His first season at UCLA
406%Charles Huff Memphis<1% Cool▼His first season at Memphis
416%Sean Lewis San Diego State19% Warm▲Age 40 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
426%Charles Kelly Jacksonville State<1% Cool▼Age 59 · in the state he was born in
435%Willie Simmons Florida International8% Cool▲Paid $750,000 in 2025, the 10th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
445%Dowell Loggains App State6% Cool▲Age 46 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
455%Jeff Traylor UTSA1% Cool▲His team is 6-1, outscoring opponents by 5.3 points a game
465%Jerry Mack Kennesaw State17% Warm▼His team is 1-6, outscored by 5.0 points a game
474%JaMarcus Shephard Oregon State<1% Cool▼His first season at Oregon State
484%Chuck Martin Miami (OH)24% Hot▲His team is 4-3, outscoring opponents by 1.3 points a game
494%Will Stein Kentucky<1% Cool▼His first season at Kentucky
504%Mike Elko Texas A&M6% Cool▲His 3rd season at Texas A&M
514%Josh Heupel Tennessee1% Cool▲Age 48 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
524%Eli Drinkwitz Missouri5% Cool▲Age 43 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
534%Butch Jones Arkansas State13% Warm▼Age 58 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
544%P.J. Fleck Minnesota15% Warm▲Age 45 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
554%Jason Candle UConn<1% Cool▼His first season at UConn
563%Kalen DeBoer Alabama<1% Cool▲His 3rd season at Alabama
573%Mark Carney Kent State22% Hot▼His team is 2-5, outscored by 20.0 points a game
583%Dave Aranda Baylor9.7% Cool▲Age 50 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
593%Tony Gibson Marshall2% Cool▼5-7 over his previous season here
603%Lane Kiffin LSU<1% Cool▲Age 51 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in, a former NFL head coach
613%Zach Kittley Florida Atlantic3% Cool▼4-8 over his previous season here
623%Lincoln Riley USC1% Cool▲Age 43 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
633%Kenny Dillingham Arizona State9% Cool▲His 4th season at Arizona State
643%Will Hall Tulane1% Cool▼His first season at Tulane
653%Steve Sarkisian Texas1% Cool▼Paid $10.8 million in 2025, the 96th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 2% on the season before
663%Troy Calhoun Air Force13% Warm▼Age 60 · coaching at his alma mater
673%Jon Sumrall Florida<1% Cool▼His first season at Florida
682%Kirby Smart Georgia<1% Cool▲His team is 6-1, outscoring opponents by 27.1 points a game · AP-ranked
692%Dave Doeren NC State34% Hot▲His 14th season at NC State
702%Jay Sawvel Wyoming11% Warm▼7-17 over his previous two seasons here
712%Tre Lamb Tulsa5% Cool▼4-8 over his previous season here
722%Scott Satterfield Cincinnati15% Warm▲His 4th season at Cincinnati
732%Ryan Carty Delaware3% Cool▼7-6 over his previous season here
742%Dell McGee Georgia State19% Warm▼4-20 over his previous two seasons here
752%Chris Creighton Eastern Michigan41% Boiling▼9-15 over his previous two seasons here
762%Jeff Lebby Mississippi State19% Warm▼7-18 over his previous two seasons here
772%Joe Harasymiak Massachusetts6% Cool▼0-12 over his previous season here
782%Eric Morris Oklahoma State1% Cool▼His first season at Oklahoma State
792%Derek Mason Middle Tennessee13% Warm▼6-18 over his previous two seasons here
802%Alex Golesh Auburn1% Cool▼His first season at Auburn
812%Fran Brown Syracuse12% Warm▼His team is 2-4, outscoring opponents by 6.0 points a game
822%Brent Key Georgia Tech28% Hot▲His 4th season at Georgia Tech
832%Jedd Fisch Washington5% Cool▲His 3rd season at Washington
842%Luke Fickell Wisconsin4% Cool▲His 4th season at Wisconsin
852%Dabo Swinney Clemson5% Cool▼Paid $11.4 million in 2025, the 97th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 3% on the season before
862%Mike Uremovich Ball State28% Hot▼His team is 2-5, outscored by 17.6 points a game
871%Pete Golding Ole Miss<1% Cool▼His first season at Ole Miss
881%Tony Sanchez New Mexico State15% Warm▼7-17 over his previous two seasons here
891%Scott Frost UCF5% Cool▼5-7 over his previous season here
901%Timmy Chang Hawai'i43% Boiling▼Age 45 · coaching at his alma mater, in the state he was born in
911%Eddie George Bowling Green23% Hot▼His team is 2-5, outscored by 11.6 points a game
921%Pat Narduzzi Pittsburgh7% Cool▼Age 60 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
931%Willie Fritz Houston2% Cool▼Age 66 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
941%James Franklin Virginia Tech<1% Cool▼His first season at Virginia Tech
951%Ken Niumatalolo San José State11% Warm▼Age 61 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
961%Mario Cristobal Miami<1% Cool▼Age 56 · coaching at his alma mater, in the state he was born in
971%Clark Lea Vanderbilt20% Hot▼Age 43 · coaching at his alma mater, in the state he was born in
981%Mike Norvell Florida State13% Warm▼7-17 over his previous two seasons here
991%Sonny Dykes TCU4% Cool▼Age 56 · in the state he was born in
1001%Collin Klein Kansas State<1% Cool▼His first season at Kansas State
1011%Jimmy Rogers Iowa State2% Cool▼His first season at Iowa State
1021%Matt Campbell Penn State1% Cool▼His first season at Penn State
1031%Bill O'Brien Boston College16% Warm▼His team is 3-3, outscored by 2.7 points a game
1041%Joe Moorhead Akron54% Boiling▼His team is 1-6, outscored by 13.6 points a game
1051%Shane Beamer South Carolina9.5% Cool▼His team is 3-3, outscoring opponents by 12.2 points a game
1061%Jeff Choate Nevada31% Hot▼6-19 over his previous two seasons here
1071%Jeff Brohm Louisville1% Cool▼Age 55 · coaching at his alma mater, in the state he was born in
1081%Bret Bielema Illinois6% Cool▼Age 56 · in the state he was born in
1091%Casey Woods Missouri State2% Cool▼His first season at Missouri State
1101%Brent Venables Oklahoma9% Cool▼A Power Four program · 95th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
1111%Ryan Silverfield Arkansas2% Cool▼His first season at Arkansas
1121%Ryan Beard Coastal Carolina3% Cool▼His first season at Coastal Carolina
1131%Morgan Scalley Utah<1% Cool▼His first season at Utah
1141%Deion Sanders Colorado9% Cool▼His team is 2-4, outscored by 6.2 points a game
1151%Alex Mortensen UAB3% Cool▼His first season at UAB
1161%Greg Schiano Rutgers24% Hot▼His team is 2-4, outscored by 0.7 points a game
1171%Bryant Vincent UL Monroe57% Boiling▼His team is 0-6, outscored by 21.2 points a game
118<1%Kirby Moore Washington State4% Cool▼His first season at Washington State
119<1%Scotty Walden UTEP53% Boiling▼His team is 1-6, outscored by 22.1 points a game
120<1%Jim Mora Colorado State2% Cool▼His first season at Colorado State
121<1%Barry Odom Purdue11% Warm▼2-10 over his previous season here
122<1%Lance Leipold Kansas18% Warm▼Age 62 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
123<1%Pat Fitzgerald Michigan State5% Cool▼His first season at Michigan State
124<1%Kirk Ferentz Iowa6% Cool▼Age 71 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
125<1%Bronco Mendenhall Utah State4% Cool▼Age 60 · in the state he was born in
126<1%Tavita Pritchard Stanford3% Cool▼His first season at Stanford
127<1%Phil Longo Sam Houston17% Warm▼His team is 1-6, outscored by 5.1 points a game
128<1%Mike Locksley Maryland54% Boiling▼His team is 2-5, outscored by 5.0 points a game
129<1%Tosh Lupoi California2% Cool▼His first season at California
130<1%Scott Abell Rice22% Hot▼His team is 1-6, outscored by 12.0 points a game
131<1%Alonzo Carter Sacramento State8% Cool▼His team is 1-6, outscored by 17.7 points a game
132<1%Kyle Whittingham Michigan1% Cool▼Age 66 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
133<1%Tim Albin Charlotte49% Boiling▼His team is 1-6, outscored by 21.4 points a game
134<1%Rich Rodriguez West Virginia26% Hot▼Age 63 · coaching at his alma mater
135<1%K.C. Keeler Temple12% Warm▼Age 67 · in the state he was born in
136<1%Bill Belichick North Carolina13% Warm▼Age 74 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in, a former NFL head coach
137<1%Blake Anderson Southern Miss22% Hot▼His team is 1-5, outscored by 8.5 points a game

Not rated: Rob Harley (Northern Illinois). An interim head coach has no number: it is only for a school’s permanent head coach.

The coordinators most likely to move up

Their number counts a bigger coordinator job as moving up too, and going with a head coach who is hired away.

#Poach watchCoordinator
138%Nate Potter Boise State OC
233%Landon Keopple Texas State OC
333%Shannon Dawson Miami OC
429%Mike Denbrock Notre Dame OC
526%Luke Schleusner New Mexico OC

All 329 FBS coordinators →

How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
What counts as leaving? A job he chooses. The details

Counted: any head-coaching job he takes, college at any level or NFL, and an NFL coordinator job. A coach who leaves while his job is in danger still counts, since the move was his. Not counted: an interim stint, or a coach his school let go who is then hired somewhere else — that is the hot seat’s outcome, being pushed out. Each of the 139 departures the model learned from, 2004–2025, was read case by case.