The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Tony Sanchez

Followed Jerry Kill. Tony Sanchez held New Mexico State at Regional Program V for 3 seasons.

The journeyman
27–57
2015–now · 2 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerUNLVNEW MEXICO STATERegional Programthe building-block levelUNLV, 2015: 3-9, Regional Program V2015UNLV, 2016: 4-8, Regional Program V2016UNLV, 2017: 5-7, Regional Program V2017UNLV, 2018: 4-8, Regional Program V2018UNLV, 2019: 4-8, Regional Program V2019+2.5New Mexico State, 2024: 3-9, Regional Program V2024New Mexico State, 2025: 4-8, Regional Program VI2025New Mexico State, 2026: in progress, Regional Program VI2026-3.0One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

UNLV, 5 seasons
+2.5
Regional Program V → Regional Program V.
New Mexico State, 3 seasons (active)
−3.0
Regional Program V → Regional Program VI.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%60%UNLV2015–2019▲ 4.5ptNew Mexico State2024–2026▲ 12.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
UNLV10.6pt#121 of 258 · a typical amount
New Mexico State17.7pt#23 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

5–6 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Bryan Harsin.

Rivalry record
5–6
45.5% · 3 rivals
One-score games
12–17
41.4% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Buyout owed
$2,077,083
bigger than 21% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Nevada3–260%
Hawai'i2–250%
New Mexico0–20%
The toughest matchup
vs. Bryan Harsin0–3
3 meetings, 2015–2019
’15 L’16 L · blew a 3-pt lead’19 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–1 0.0%
Power Program
0–10 0.0%
National Program
1–10 9.1%
Regional Program
18–34 34.6%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.16
#222 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.27
#286 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2024–now
New Mexico Statecaretaker
Regional Program V → Regional Program V
Tony Sanchez held New Mexico State at Regional Program V for 3 seasons.

13th-best New Mexico State tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-22.8 pts
#182 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
+7.4 pts
#73 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Jerry Kill (2022–2023).

Season202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record3–94–80–0
Postseason
Recruiting rank#131#126#134
Style — pass rate
Pass rate39.357.051.3
Coordinators
OCTyler Wright / Andrew MitchellDavid YostDavid Yost
DCJoe MorrisJoe MorrisJoe Morris
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense9789
Defense156431
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%30.753.448.6
Red-zone pass%31.857.636.4
4th-down go%opp. territory18.819.5
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
59
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
97
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-38
#40 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 238 lbs
across 33 of 59 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+1.1 lbs
#212 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#117 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: CA (10), TX (7), MS (2), LA (2), AZ (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
56.1
position-weighted
Net
-3.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Deuce Hogan (QB) from Kentucky
Biggest loss: Diego Pavia (QB) to Vanderbilt
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
205 lbs
6′1″ avg · #600 of 767 · less than most
Running back
210 lbs
6′0″ avg · #291 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
190 lbs
6′0″ avg · #534 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
240 lbs
6′4″ avg · #547 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
301 lbs
6′4″ avg · #683 of 779 · less than most
D-line
283 lbs
6′2″ avg · #399 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
219 lbs
6′1″ avg · #718 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
185 lbs
6′0″ avg · #629 of 771 · less than most
Safety
188 lbs
6′0″ avg · #326 of 346 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys D-line via the portal
100%
#1 of 239 stints
Buys Tight end via the portal
100%
#1 of 188 stints
Grows Linebacker from high school
100%
#205 of 225 stints

AI Narratives — “New Mexico State — stat check”.

7–17
2015–2019
UNLVcaretaker
Regional Program V → Regional Program V
Tony Sanchez held UNLV at Regional Program V for 5 seasons.

10th-best UNLV tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+6.2 pts
#80 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-24.4 pts
#187 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Bobby Hauck (2010–2014) · succeeded by Marcus Arroyo (2020–2022).

Season20152016201720182019Trend
Record & result
Record3–94–85–74–84–8
Postseason
Recruiting rank#106#81#117#99#100
Style — pass rate
Pass rate42.236.136.239.046.7
Coordinators
OCBarney CottonBarney CottonBarney CottonBarney CottonGarin Justice
DCKent BaerKent BaerKent BaerTim SkipperTim Skipper
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense4850594731
Defense1117201027
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%37.732.429.931.540.3
Red-zone pass%41.223.624.831.227.7
4th-down go%opp. territory30.826.926.045.241.5
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Barney Cotton → Garin Justice · 2019
47th pct31st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 31.5% → 40.3% (+8.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 80% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Kent Baer → Tim Skipper · 2018the system held
18th pct19th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
20–40