The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Bryan Harsin

Followed Gus Malzahn. Bryan Harsin inherited a Power Program I Auburn and won with it.

The ascent
85–36
2013–2022 · 3 stints
Arkansas StateBoise StateAuburn
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerARKANSAS STBOISE STATEAUBURNPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelArkansas State, 2013: 7-5, Regional Program II2013+1.2Boise State, 2014: 12-2, Power Program II2014Boise State, 2015: 9-4, Power Program II2015Boise State, 2016: 10-3, Power Program II2016Boise State, 2017: 11-3, Power Program II2017Boise State, 2018: 10-3, Power Program II2018Boise State, 2019: 12-2, Power Program II2019Boise State, 2020: 5-2, Power Program III2020-3.2Auburn, 2021: 6-7, Power Program I2021Auburn, 2022: 3-5, Power Program II2022-2.5One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Power Program in his 2nd career season — faster than 51% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #170 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Boise State, 7 seasons
−3.2
Power Program II → Power Program III.
Auburn, 2 seasons
−2.5
Power Program I → Power Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Boise State2014–2020▲ 6.5ptAuburn2021–2022▼ 12.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Boise State6.5pt#202 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

5–4 against his rivals. Just 1–2 against Bronco Mendenhall.

Rivalry record
5–4
55.6% · 4 rivals
One-score games
20–13
60.6% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Fresno State4–267%
Georgia0–10%
Alabama0–10%
UL Monroe1–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Bronco Mendenhall1–2
3 meetings, 2014–2017
’14 W · wire to wire’15 L · blew a 10-pt lead’17 L · blew a 7-pt lead
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
0–1 0.0%
Power Program
4–8 33.3%
National Program
14–8 63.6%
Regional Program
55–13 80.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.38
#42 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.29
#39 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2021–2022
Auburninheritor
Power Program I → Power Program I
Bryan Harsin inherited a Power Program I Auburn and won with it.

8th-best Auburn tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-10.5 pts
#151 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+8.4 pts
#70 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Gus Malzahn (2013–2020) · succeeded by Hugh Freeze (2023–2025).

Season20212022Trend
Record & result
Record6–72–2
PostseasonL bowl—
Recruiting rank#30#21
Style — pass rate
Pass rate50.738.7
Coordinators
OCMike BoboEric Kiesau
DCDerek MasonJeff Schmedding
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense5055
Defense8656
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%44.828.9
Red-zone pass%40.830.1
4th-down go%opp. territory28.331.0
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
21
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
46
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-25
#118 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 228 lbs
across 15 of 21 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+9.1 lbs
#24 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#5 of 255 · more than most
Top states: AL (5), GA (2), LA (2), FL (2), IN (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.8
position-weighted
Talent lost
61.0
position-weighted
Net
-8.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Zach Calzada (QB) from Texas A&M
Biggest loss: Cord Sandberg (QB) to Eastern Kentucky
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
223 lbs
6′4″ avg · #116 of 767 · more than most
Running back
209 lbs
5′11″ avg · #301 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
193 lbs
6′1″ avg · #393 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
245 lbs
6′5″ avg · #351 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
314 lbs
6′5″ avg · #178 of 779 · more than most
D-line
315 lbs
6′3″ avg · #10 of 753 · more than most
Linebacker
234 lbs
6′2″ avg · #158 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
191 lbs
6′1″ avg · #325 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Postseason detail2021: Lost to Houston 13–17 TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

10 NFL Draft picks: Anthony Schwartz (2021), Jamien Sherwood (2021), K.J. Britt (2021), Seth Williams (2021), Roger McCreary (2022), Derick Hall (2023), Tank Bigsby (2023), Colby Wooden (2023) + 2 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Roger McCreary (2021)

9–12
2014–2020
Boise Stateinheritor
Power Program I → Power Program II
Bryan Harsin inherited a Power Program I Boise State and won with it.

2nd-best Boise State tenure of 9 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+22.2 pts
#35 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+15.1 pts
#49 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Chris Petersen (2006–2013) · succeeded by Andy Avalos (2021–2023).

Season2014201520162017201820192020Trend
Record & result
Record12–29–410–311–310–312–25–2
PostseasonW CFPW bowlL bowlW bowl—L bowl—
Recruiting rank#63#58#68#64#57#50#65
Style — pass rate
Pass rate42.548.745.245.847.047.249.0
Coordinators
OCMike SanfordEliah DrinkwitzZak Hill / Scott HuffZak HillZak HillEric Kiesau / Zak HillEric Kiesau
DCMarcel YatesMarcel YatesAndy AvalosAndy AvalosAndy AvalosSpencer Danielson / Jeff SchmeddingSpencer Danielson / Jeff Schmedding
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense93718365877752
Defense85925864595862
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%37.245.538.941.645.140.343.2
Red-zone pass%25.833.134.233.336.835.929.1
4th-down go%opp. territory30.032.045.524.434.030.629.4
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Mike Sanford → Eliah Drinkwitz · 2015
93rd pct71st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 37.2% → 45.5% (+8.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 36% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Eliah Drinkwitz → co-Zak Hill / co-Scott Huff · 2016
71st pct83rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 45.5% → 38.9% (-6.7 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 86% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Zak Hill / co-Scott Huff → co-Zak Hill · 2017
83rd pct65th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 38.9% → 41.6% (+2.7 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 61% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Zak Hill → co-Eric Kiesau / co-Zak Hill · 2019
87th pct77th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 45.1% → 40.3% (-4.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 33% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Eric Kiesau / co-Zak Hill → Eric Kiesau · 2020
77th pct52nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 40.3% → 43.2% (+2.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 69% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Marcel Yates → Andy Avalos · 2016the defense collapsed across the change
88th pct61st pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: Andy Avalos → co-Spencer Danielson / co-Jeff Schmedding · 2019the system held
62nd pct60th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Arizona 38–30 CFP2015: Beat Northern Illinois 55–7 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl2016: Lost to Baylor 12–31 Motel 6 Cactus Bowl2017: Beat Oregon 38–28 Las Vegas Bowl2019: Lost to Washington 7–38 Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

17 NFL Draft picks: Demarcus Lawrence (2014), Matt Paradis (2014), Charles Leno (2014), Jay Ajayi (2015), Kamalei Correa (2016), Darian Thompson (2016), Rees Odhiambo (2016), Jeremy McNichols (2017) + 9 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Demarcus Williams (2020)

69–19
2013–2013
Arkansas Statecaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program II
Bryan Harsin moved Arkansas State from Regional Program III to Regional Program II in 1 season.

4th-best Arkansas State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Gus Malzahn (2012–2012) · succeeded by Blake Anderson (2014–2020).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Safety from high school
100%
#201 of 218 stints

2 NFL Draft picks: Don Jones (2013), Ryan Carrethers (2014)

7–5