The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Bronco Mendenhall

Followed Danny Gonzales. Bronco Mendenhall moved New Mexico from Regional Program VI to Regional Program V in 1 season.

Peak, then fade
146–95
2005–now · 4 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

The clock is already ticking. Monday morning can’t come fast enough, in terms of the improvements we need to make. We played exactly as we were prepared to play, and that was really good feedback to me

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 3rd career season — faster than 46% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #194 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

BYU, 11 seasons
+10.2
National Program II → National Program I.
Virginia, 6 seasons
+1.7
National Program III → National Program III.
Utah State, 2 seasons (active)
−0.3
Regional Program III → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%60%BYU2005–2015▲ 9.0ptVirginia2016–2021▲ 6.1ptNew Mexico2024–2024– 0.0ptUtah State2025–2026▲ 2.5pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Virginia20.2pt#10 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

12–13 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Brian Kelly.

Rivalry record
12–13
48.0% · 4 rivals
One-score games
37–35
51.4% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
2–6
25.0%
Buyout owed
$11,270,153 (est.)
bigger than 60% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Utah3–730%
Utah State7–278%
The toughest matchup
vs. Brian Kelly0–3
3 meetings, 2012–2019
’12 L’13 L’19 L · blew a 7-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
2–6 25.0%
Power Program
15–40 27.3%
National Program
32–24 57.1%
Regional Program
75–19 79.8%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.12
#101 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.01
#169 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

program directionOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Bronco's time at BYU was unprofessional

He's a very strange man and sometimes a little off-putting, and he was often cringey and self-righteous when he was in Provo.

Let's be real - there is more than a few on here and in the fanbase in general that will never like Bronco because of his time at BYU.

Based on 2 comments across 1 thread · Jul 8, 2026 · via Merlin Olsen Field (Aggie Football)

Coaching career

2025–now
Utah State
too new to grade yet

15th-best Utah State tenure of 22 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+26.5 pts
#18 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-7.5 pts
#135 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Blake Anderson (2021–2024).

Season20252026Trend
Record & result
Record6–70–0
PostseasonL bowl
Recruiting rank#87#97
Style — pass rate
Pass rate47.550.0
Coordinators
OCKevin McGivenRobert Anae
DCNick HowellNick Howell
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense6514
Defense3240
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%47.148.4
Red-zone pass%36.446.7
4th-down go%opp. territory28.1
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
53
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
57
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-4
#17 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 221 lbs
across 41 of 53 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-2.2 lbs
#243 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#228 of 255 · less than most
Top states: CA (8), TX (8), UT (5), NC (3), TN (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
54.4
position-weighted
Net
-2.0
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: McCae Hillstead (QB) from BYU
Biggest loss: CJ Tiller (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Kevin McGiven → Robert Anae · 2026
65th pct14th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 47.1% → 48.4% (+1.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 65% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Safety via the portal
69%
#24 of 218 stints
Buys Edge via the portal
71%
#33 of 208 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
80%
#146 of 188 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
86%
#189 of 223 stints
Postseason detail2025: Lost to Washington State 21–34 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

1 NFL Draft pick: Jalen Royals (2025)

6–7
2024–2024
New Mexicocaretaker
Regional Program VI → Regional Program V
Bronco Mendenhall moved New Mexico from Regional Program VI to Regional Program V in 1 season.

22nd-best New Mexico tenure of 22 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+42.4 pts
#4 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-34.8 pts
#202 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Danny Gonzales (2020–2023) · succeeded by Jason Eck (2025–2026).

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
28
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
26
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+2
#13 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 255 lbs
across 21 of 28 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+6.9 lbs
#49 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#12 of 255 · more than most
Top states: CA (6), TX (4), FL (2), VA (2), AZ (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
50.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
51.2
position-weighted
Net
-0.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Sol-Jay Maiava (QB) from BYU
Biggest loss: DC Tabscott (QB) to North Alabama
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys D-line via the portal
100%
#1 of 239 stints
Buys Cornerback via the portal
100%
#1 of 236 stints
5–7
2016–2021
Virginiacaretaker
National Program III → National Program II
Bronco Mendenhall moved Virginia from National Program III to National Program II in 6 seasons.

5th-best Virginia tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-4.4 pts
#132 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-17.9 pts
#170 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mike London (2010–2015) · succeeded by Tony Elliott (2022–2026).

Season201620172018201920202021Trend
Record & result
Record2–106–78–59–55–56–6
PostseasonL bowlW CFPL bowl
Recruiting rank#63#58#59#39#48#31
Style — pass rate
Pass rate55.957.241.954.150.962.0
Coordinators
OCRobert AnaeRobert AnaeRobert AnaeRobert AnaeRobert AnaeRobert Anae
DCNick HowellNick HowellKelly Poppinga / Nick HowellKelly Poppinga / Nick HowellKelly Poppinga / Nick HowellKelly Poppinga / Nick Howell
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense7763666480
Defense264172114016
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%57.154.941.855.752.668.7
Red-zone pass%56.655.238.850.746.258.5
4th-down go%opp. territory36.137.827.828.337.935.3
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
6
2.8★ avg rating
Portal departures
9
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-3
#160 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 240 lbs
across 2 of 6 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+15.6 lbs
#1 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#241 of 255 · less than most
Top states: MD (1), GA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
21.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
28.8
position-weighted
Net
-7.0
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Anthony Johnson (CB) from Louisville
Biggest loss: Shawn Smith (CB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Nick Howell → co-Kelly Poppinga / Nick Howell · 2018the system held
34th pct42nd pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
216 lbs
6′1″ avg · #301 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
206 lbs
5′10″ avg · #443 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
198 lbs
6′1″ avg · #152 of 791 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Linebacker
228 lbs
6′3″ avg · #388 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
187 lbs
6′0″ avg · #544 of 771 · a typical amount
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
80%
#146 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2017: Lost to Navy 7–49 Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman2018: Beat South Carolina 28–0 CFP2019: Lost to Florida 28–36 Capital One Orange Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Maurice Canady (2016), Micah Kiser (2018), Andrew Brown (2018), Juan Thornhill (2019), Tim Harris (2019), Joe Reed (2020), Bryce Hall (2020), Jelani Woods (2022)

36–38
2005–2015
BYUcaretakerborderline
National Program II → Power Program III
Bronco Mendenhall moved BYU from National Program II to Power Program III in 11 seasons.

3rd-best BYU tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+20.5 pts
#38 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+36.8 pts
#3 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Gary Crowton (2001–2004) · succeeded by Kalani Sitake (2016–2026).

Season20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Trend
Record & result
Record6–611–211–210–311–27–610–38–58–58–59–4
PostseasonL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#64#65
Style — pass rate
Pass rate46.055.0
Coordinators
OCRobert AnaeRobert Anae
DCNick HowellNick Howell
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense7471
Defense7587
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%50.555.3
Red-zone pass%40.646.7
4th-down go%opp. territory43.631.4
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Memphis 48–55 Miami Beach Bowl2015: Lost to Utah 28–35 Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl

12 NFL Draft picks: Brady Poppinga (2005), Scott Young (2005), Shaun Nua (2005), Todd Watkins (2006), John Beck (2007), Bryan Kehl (2008), Austin Collie (2009), Fui Vakapuna (2009) + 4 more

99–43