Bronco Mendenhall

Head coach · Utah State
2nd season · since 2025 · New Mexico before

At Utah State9-12since 2025 · 3-5 this seasonHot seatCool3% · 71st of 132 jobsLast gameW 31-14vs Colorado State · Oct 31Nextvs Fresno StateSat Nov 7 · 9:30 pm ET · USA Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, on track for 4-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianBYUVirginiaNew MexicoUtah StateUtahUtahVirginia TechVirginia TechPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelBYU when he took over: 34.2 (National Program II), its final 2004 readingBYU, 2005: 6-6, National Program IIBYU, 2005: 6-6, National Program II2005BYU, 2006: 11-2, National Program IBYU, 2007: 11-2, Power Program IIIBYU, 2008: 10-3, Power Program IIIBYU, 2009: 11-2, Power Program IIIBYU, 2010: 7-6, Power Program IIIBYU, 2011: 10-3, Power Program IIIBYU, 2012: 8-5, Power Program IIIBYU, 2013: 8-5, Power Program IIIBYU, 2014: 8-5, Power Program IIIBYU, 2015: 9-4, National Program IBYU, 2015: 9-4, National Program I2015+10.2Virginia when he took over: 29.3 (National Program III), its final 2015 readingVirginia, 2016: 2-10, National Program IIIVirginia, 2016: 2-10, National Program III2016Virginia, 2017: 6-7, Regional Program IVirginia, 2018: 8-5, National Program IIIVirginia, 2019: 9-5, National Program IIVirginia, 2020: 5-5, National Program IIVirginia, 2021: 6-6, National Program IIIVirginia, 2021: 6-6, National Program III2021+1.7New Mexico when he took over: 4.7 (Regional Program VI), its final 2023 readingNew Mexico, 2024: 5-7, Regional Program VNew Mexico, 2024: 5-7, Regional Program V2024+0.9Utah State when he took over: 15.8 (Regional Program III), its final 2024 readingUtah State, 2025: 6-7, Regional Program IIIUtah State, 2025: 6-7, Regional Program III2025Utah State, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program IIIUtah State, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program III2026-0.3best: 2009bracket: consecutive-win streak · gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes16-game win streak (2007-08)

Bowls and playoffs: 7-8

BYU’05L’06W’07W’08L’09W’10W’11W’12W’13L’14L’15LVirginia’17L’18W’19LUtah State’25L

Show all 15 games
BYU2005Las Vegas BowlL 28-352006Las Vegas BowlW 38-82007Las Vegas BowlW 17-162008Las Vegas BowlL 21-312009Maaco Bowl Las VegasW 44-202010New Mexico BowlW 52-242011Armed Forces BowlW 24-212012Poinsettia BowlW 23-62013Fight Hunger BowlL 16-312014Miami Beach BowlL 48-552015Las Vegas BowlL 28-35Virginia2017Military BowlL 7-492018Belk BowlW 28-02019Orange BowlL 28-36Utah State2025Famous Idaho Potato BowlL 21-34

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 31-14 vs. Colorado State Sat Oct 31
  • This season3-5
  • On track for4-7 regular season
  • Nextvs. Fresno State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature99th of 138 FBS programs

Saturday: vs. Fresno State

Sat Nov 7, 9:30 pm ET USA Network · Fresno State is 5-3 · Mendenhall vs. Matt Entz: 1-0 · Utah State’s chance to win: 44% (the site’s model)

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 122nd of 138 per play. Defense: 27th.

Offense, per play122ndOffense, staying on schedule134thDefense, per play27thDefense, big plays allowed9thWorstBest
Offense, per play122nd of 138Offense, staying on schedule134th of 138Defense, per play27th of 138Defense, big plays allowed9th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Utah State. The other two rows are where Utah State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Fresno State (5-3)USA Network44%
  2. Sat Nov 14at San Diego State (4-5)USA Network65%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Oregon State (5-3)CBS Sports Network33%

Percent: Utah State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Utah State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

94th100th106thPreseason102ndIdaho State L 17-29Idaho State L 17-29L 17-29Idaho State102ndWashington L 14-16Washington L 14-16L 14-16Washington100thUtah L 0-33Utah L 0-33L 0-33Utah100thTroy W 21-10Troy W 21-10W 21-10Troy100thBoise State L 18-37Boise State L 18-37L 18-37Boise State99thWashington State W 17-16Washington State W 17-16W 17-16Washington St…99thTexas State L 17-20Texas State L 17-20L 17-20Texas State101stColorado State W 31-14Colorado State W 31-14W 31-14Colorado State101stBye99th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 31-14 vs. Colorado State1 headline · 87th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25L 17-20 at Texas State0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18No game0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11W 17-16 vs. Washington State0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 18-37 at Boise State1 headline · 82nd of 138
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 21-10 vs. Troy1 headline · 83rd of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Utah State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

3%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool71st-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 130th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, 130th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 126th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 57th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 5%, 64th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 4%, 69th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 4%, 70th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 4%, 70th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 77th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    $11.3M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 5.6× his pay, a multiple among the largest in FBS — costly to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscored by 40
  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 2 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$11,270,153 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 5.6× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 8%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.