The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Dave Clawson

Followed Jim Grobe. Dave Clawson moved Wake Forest from Regional Program II to National Program III in 11 seasons.

The ascent
99–101
2009–2024 · 2 stints
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 13th career season — faster than 2% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #662 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Bowling Green, 5 seasons
−3.9
Regional Program II → Regional Program II.
Wake Forest, 11 seasons
+7.9
Regional Program II → National Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Wake Forest2014–2024▼ 2.2pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Wake Forest10.3pt#128 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–4 against his rivals. Winless in 11 tries against Dabo Swinney.

Rivalry record
1–4
20.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
28–35
44.4% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Toledo1–420%
The toughest matchup
vs. Dabo Swinney0–11
11 meetings, 2014–2024
’14 L · blew a 7-pt lead’15 L’16 L’17 L’18 L’19 L’20 L’21 L’22 L · blew a 8-pt lead’23 L · blew a 3-pt lead’24 L · blew a 7-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 11-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
0–13 0.0%
Power Program
7–22 24.1%
National Program
22–27 44.9%
Regional Program
48–31 60.8%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.11
#202 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.25
#283 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2014–2024
Wake Forestcaretaker
Regional Program II → National Program III
Dave Clawson moved Wake Forest from Regional Program II to National Program III in 11 seasons.

4th-best Wake Forest tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-6.5 pts
#137 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-10.1 pts
#147 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Jim Grobe (2001–2013) · succeeded by Jake Dickert (2025–2026).

Season20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Trend
Record & result
Record3–93–97–68–57–68–54–511–38–54–84–8
PostseasonW bowlW CFPW bowlL bowlL bowlW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#67#51#57#68#64#57#60#66#71#53#52
Style — pass rate
Pass rate50.150.039.844.241.444.545.147.948.640.748.0
Coordinators
OCWarren RuggieroWarren RuggieroWarren RuggieroWarren RuggieroWarren RuggieroWarren RuggieroWarren RuggieroWarren RuggieroWarren RuggieroWarren RuggieroWarren Ruggiero
DCMike ElkoMike ElkoMike ElkoJay SawvelJay SawvelLyle HemphillLyle HemphillLyle HemphillBrad LambertBrad LambertBrad Lambert
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense0978357296084701515
Defense6745794342425037191921
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%50.248.444.450.046.144.237.448.550.538.445.0
Red-zone pass%50.042.934.542.735.838.035.738.538.639.246.8
4th-down go%opp. territory35.320.622.028.640.930.632.329.345.031.042.9
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
18
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
47
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-29
#170 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Mateen Ibirogba On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 241 lbs
across 15 of 18 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+6.9 lbs
#49 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#9 of 255 · more than most
Top states: CA (3), NC (2), TX (2), TN (2), AR (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
47.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
57.5
position-weighted
Net
-9.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Hank Bachmeier (QB) from Louisiana Tech
Biggest loss: Sam Hartman (QB) to Notre Dame
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Mike Elko → Jay Sawvel · 2017the defense slipped
62nd pct43rd pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: Lyle Hemphill → Brad Lambert · 2022the defense slipped
44th pct19th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
207 lbs
6′1″ avg · #558 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
206 lbs
5′10″ avg · #442 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
195 lbs
6′1″ avg · #295 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
242 lbs
6′4″ avg · #490 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
307 lbs
6′4″ avg · #494 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
274 lbs
6′3″ avg · #587 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
227 lbs
6′1″ avg · #462 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
192 lbs
6′0″ avg · #290 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
91%
#163 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2016: Beat Temple 34–26 Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman2017: Beat Texas A&M 55–52 CFP2018: Beat Memphis 37–34 Jared Birmingham Bowl2019: Lost to Michigan State 21–27 New Era Pinstripe Bowl2020: Lost to Wisconsin 28–42 Duke's Mayo Bowl2021: Beat Rutgers 38–10 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl2022: Beat Missouri 27–17 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

16 NFL Draft picks: Michael Campanaro (2014), Kevin Johnson (2015), Marquel Lee (2017), Jessie Bates III (2018), Duke Ejiofor (2018), Phil Haynes (2019), Justin Strnad (2020), Justin Herron (2020) + 8 more

67–69
2009–2013
Bowling Greencaretaker
Regional Program II → Regional Program II
Dave Clawson held Bowling Green at Regional Program II for 5 seasons.

9th-best Bowling Green tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Gregg Brandon (2003–2008) · succeeded by Dino Babers (2014–2015).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: Christopher Jones (2013)

32–32