Wake Forest9-42Jake Dickert's first season at Wake Forest begins with a 9-4 record, but the program's identity shift and uneasy fanbase signal untested challenges for a coach inheriting a middle-tier P5 school.
Wake Forest is the smallest school in the Power conferences and the program that keeps winning anyway — the place that turns three-star quarterbacks into NFL draft picks and just won nine games in a brand-new coach's first try.
Wake fans are used to being the team analysts forget to mention and the campus visitors can't find. They say being overlooked is a feature — the Deacons recruit the players everyone else passed on and…
Approaching
28 days
until kickoff · vs Akron · Thu Sep 3 · 23:00 UTC
Wake Forest is the smallest P5 school by enrollment and the program that quietly produces nine-win seasons by ignoring its size.
With a roster.reload score of "Low continuity / heavy reload" and only 26% returning players, Wake Forest faces a heavy reload, but incoming transfers like Wondame Davis Jr. could bolster the WR position. The team's ceiling scenario projects a 10-3 record with a bowl game appearance.
The Demon Deacon tips his hat.
the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Jake Dickert replaces Dave Clawson’s 29-28 run with a 9-4 roster and just 26% production returning — Wake Forest’s small-school identity meets its first test under a new coach.
Gio Lopez's arrival as Wake Forest's top portal addition caps a top-3 ACC class for Dickert in his first season, doubling down on nine-win stability over roster turnover.
Jake Dickert's first season at Wake Forest begins with a 9-4 record, but the program's identity shift and uneasy fanbase signal untested challenges for a coach inheriting a middle-tier P5 school.
Chris Barnes is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Sawyer Racanelli is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Wake Forest leaped 41 spots in SP+ — the program’s 9-4 record and #74 talent rank highlight a quiet ascent, but the smallest P5 school’s identity hinges on sustaining momentum.
Wake Forest: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Wittingburg commits to Wake Forest
Two NFL Draft departures gutted the WR room and a 63rd-ranked class wasn't going to paper over it alone — Wittingburg is Dickert's most direct answer to a depth problem that's been on the board since January.
Gabe Fraser commits to Wake Forest
Dickert's class sits 63rd nationally and the WR room has been the loudest concern all spring — Fraser is pressure relief, not just a depth add.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
69th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Wake Forest · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Jake Dickert took over as Wake Forest's head coach, replacing Dave Clawson. It is replaces 6-year head coach Dave Clawson (36-33). It's not the hire that's the story anymore — it's everything it set in motion. The room has bought in, but early believers have been wrong before.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
Wake Forest signed a top-21 transfer-portal class — 33 additions headlined by Deshawn Purdie (QB) from Charlotte and Robby Ashford (QB) from South Carolina. It is a top-3 portal class in the ACC this cycle. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 2 of 75 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
Board health this week (60 posts): 10% positive · 83% neutral · 7% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Opens Sep 3
vs Akron · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
GA leads the 2026 class with 7 commits. National footprint reaching 13 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
96 signees across 21 states, 2023-2026. GA leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Just one AP voter, Chad Bishop (Atlanta Journal-Constitution), has them ranked — at #24. The other 65 voters left them off entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
12 games with TV coverage: 4 ESPN, 4 conference network, 4 streaming
Kickoff windows: 4 noon, 3 afternoon, 5 primetime
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 79% recovered, vs. ~49% expected.
11 of 14 forced fumbles recovered; 14 of 24 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Deflections without payoff: 7% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~19% league-wide.
4 interceptions of 55 disrupted passes (51 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2025 only.
The flags haven't favored them: 96 penalties committed vs. 74 drawn on opponents, 236 yards behind.
903 penalty yards committed vs. 667 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 4 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Wake Forest fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
I mean, aside from being 6'5, 230, and absolutely shredded, you'd have no idea.
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readWake Forest fans are split right down the middle, with almost nothing concrete behind it yet.
✓ counted We read 60 posts from Wake Forest fans this week.
“Had to watch the game in Spanish due to the YouTube tv situation and was very impressed by the announcers”— r/CFB
“What changed since then. NIL. Kiss those days goodbye. Little ole wake forest will never beat up big brother again”— r/CFB
“Pro Humanitate & Winning Championships: Wake Forest Celebrates Historic $20 Million Gift from Bob McCreary (’61) & Launches the McCreary Triple Double Challenge — A $100 Million Initiative Wake Forest University Athletics”— google_news_wake-forest
“Well, if we hadn't gotten hosed last game by blatantly bad reffing, this season looks a lot better. But so far every game has looked ugly except WCU.”— r/CFB
“ACC chaos is all a conspiracy to funnel dark money to the hospitals and cardiologists at the Tobacco Road schools. It’s the only logical way to explain my heart palpitations this season”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Wake Forest · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.26 EPA/play | 2 | 12 | 191 / 322 | 59.3 | 2472 #65 FBS | 7.7 | 12 | 8 | 131.1 | 52.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage28.8% 73th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 25th percentile to the 68th among FBS QBs | |||||||||||||
| Vertical Passer · +0.23 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 41 / 82 | 50 | 618 | 7.5 | 6 | 3 | 130.1 | 33.2 | 6.8 | 3.5 | |
Yards by week → Vertical PasserElite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 9 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt9.1 81th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %56.5% bottom 10th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Deshawn Purdie's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · -0.00 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 179 | 905 #59 FBS | 5.1 | 10 #46 FBS | 85 | 18.8 | 17.6 | 18.3 | 13.6 | 11.4% (38/333) | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior · 4-star, 2022 class our readthe ball security is the one real worry — 3.38 fumbles per 100 touches (top-decile concern) | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.44 EPA/play | 23 | 12 | 75 | 323 | 4.3 | 3 | 15 | 11.5 | 8.1 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share18.5% 85th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception12.3 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ty Clark III's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.16 EPA/play | — | 7 | 22 | 63 | 2.9 | 0 | 9 | 3.2 | 4.4 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.33 EPA/play | 8 | 13 | 40 | 611 | 15.3 | 3 | 93 | 7.7 | 12.1 | 19.8% (66/333) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Return threatReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. a house-call threat every time he fields it The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior View Carlos Hernandez's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.32 EPA/play | 10 | 11 | 39 | 547 | 14.0 | 3 | 70 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 16.5% (55/333) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.8 64th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.3 bottom 25th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chris Barnes's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.59 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 30 | 416 | 13.9 | 2 | 51 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 14.1% (47/333) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 50th percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 8th | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +1.00 EPA/play | 9 | 7 | 18 | 315 | 17.5 | 1 | 62 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 7.8% (26/333) | |
Yards by week → Deep Threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception18.4 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sawyer Racanelli's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.31 EPA/play | 7 | 8 | 18 | 302 | 16.8 | 2 | 52 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 10.2% (34/333) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 4-star, 2023 class View Micah Mays Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.69 EPA/play | — | 8 | 21 | 228 | 10.9 | 2 | 42 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 7.5% (25/333) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.4 bottom 43th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 69th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Eni Falayi's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.46 EPA/play | — | 8 | 11 | 122 | 11.1 | 1 | 25 | 2.4 | 2.2 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.1 52th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume11 bottom 18th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kamrean Johnson's full player page | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 11 | 13 | 65 | 25 | 14.5 #25 FBS | 6.5 #55 FBS | 9 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Langston Hardy's full player pageTFL rate22.3% 79th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 91 | 13 | 44 | 15 | 9 | 2.5 | 5 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight317 lb 88th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 7 | 12 | 39 | 17 | 8.5 | 6 #74 FBS | 8 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate21.8% 77th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Nuer Gatkuoth's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 10 | 13 | 37 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate24.3% 85th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Gabe Kirschke's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 52 | 12 | 33 | 11 | 6 | 3.5 | 8 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.2% 64th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dallas Afalava's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 94 | 13 | 25 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 7 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.0% 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 5th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 65th | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 99 | 11 | 21 | 7 | 3.5 | 2 | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 58th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mateen Ibirogba's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 42 | 12 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyler Walton's full player page | |||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 24 | 13 | 73 | 30 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Dylan Hazen's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 21 | 13 | 73 | 26 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2023 class View Aiden Hall's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 9 | 13 | 57 | 16 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume57 59th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Quincy Bryant's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 43 | 12 | 45 | 18 | 27 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume45 bottom 42th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate3.3% bottom 20th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Frank Cusano's full player page | |||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 45 | 13 | 107 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1.5 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume107 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Rover | 5 | 13 | 80 | 9 #36 FBS | 0 | 4 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.2% 67th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Davaughn Patterson's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 3 | 13 | 40 | 8 #45 FBS | 1 | 2 | 1 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.0% 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Karon Prunty's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | — | 12 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior View Braylon Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | — | 11 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.0% 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Lardarius Webb Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 27 | 12 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Travon West's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 22 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Myles Turpin's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 17 | 9 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Zamari Stevenson's full player page | |||||||
| — | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 15 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 37 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | — | 13 | 18/22 | 81.8 | 32/32 | 86 | 50 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 91 | 12 | 63 | 2402 | 38.1 | 55 | 19 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.32 EPA/play | 10 | 11 | 7 | 263 | 37.6 | 1 | 98 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.33 EPA/play | 8 | 13 | 23 | 253 | 11 | 1 | 88 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+23 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #99 | #185 | -18.5 | Kennesaw State | W 10–9 151 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #125 | #204 | -17.5 | Western Carolina | W 42–10 133 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 11 | #108 | #26 | +7 | NC State | L 24–34 133 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #105 | #42 | +11.5 | Georgia Tech | L 29–30 155 | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #92 | #57 | +4.5 | @Virginia Tech | W 30–23 135 | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #75 | #106 | -1.5 | @Oregon State | W 39–14 134 | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #59 | #20 | +5.5 | SMU | W 13–12 139 | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #55 | #63 | +13 | @Florida State | L 7–42 128 | 5-3 | 2-3 |
| 11 | Nov 9 | #69 | #43 | +7.5 | @VirginiaTop 25 win | W 16–9 128 | 6-3 | 3-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #60 | #123 | -3.5 | North Carolina | W 28–12 125 | 7-3 | 4-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #60 | #152 | -17.5 | Delaware | W 52–14 136 | 8-3 | 4-3 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #46 | #75 | +2.5 | @Duke | L 32–49 149 | 8-4 | 4-4 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 19 | Jan 3 | #56 | #90 | +3 | Mississippi State (N) | W 43–29 | 9-4 | 4-4 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3 | Mississippi State | W 43–29 | — | — | — | +0.332 | 44.1% | 154.0% | |
| Nov 29 | @Duke | L 32–49 | 466 | 4 | 25:21 | +0.224 | 42.7% | 134.6% | |
| Nov 22 | Delaware | W 52–14 | 577 | 2 | 26:57 | +0.591 | 47.5% | 183.9% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 15 | North Carolina | W 28–12 | 414 | 1 | 29:58 | +0.324 | 42.9% | 147.9% | |
| Nov 9 | @Virginia | W 16–9 | 203 | 0 | 31:42 | -0.180 | 28.8% | 121.8% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 1 | @Florida State | L 7–42 | 247 | 2 | 34:24 | -0.001 | 37.8% | 134.4% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 25 | SMU | W 13–12 | 301 | 5 | 32:22 | -0.259 | 28.2% | 129.7% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 11 | @Oregon State | W 39–14 | 468 | 0 | 24:48 | +0.392 | 38.5% | 196.1% | |
| Oct 4 | @Virginia Tech | W 30–23 | 347 | 1 | 32:40 | +0.217 | 37.1% | 128.7% | One-score win |
| Sep 27 | Georgia Tech | L 29–30 | 445 | 0 | 27:14 | +0.264 | 39.7% | 135.9% | One-score loss |
| Sep 11 | NC State | L 24–34 | 311 | 2 | 21:55 | +0.040 | 29.8% | 139.4% | |
| Sep 6 | Western Carolina | W 42–10 | 542 | 3 | 24:02 | +0.257 | 35.1% | 243.5% | Most explosive |
| Aug 29 | Kennesaw State | W 10–9 | 348 | 0 | 35:01 | +0.053 | 42.5% | 101.4% | One-score win |
| Season average (13 games) | 389 | 1.7 | +0.173 | 38.0% | 150.1% | ||||
Wake Forest fields a capable explosive, big-play offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
42nd percentile quality, 72nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 31st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 11th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
21st percentile success on standard downs, 31st on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 64th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 21st — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.17; 80th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.06. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.15 raw vs. 0.00 adjusted.
Wake Forest reads strongest in explosive plays (top 2%) and success rate allowed (top 10%); the crux lives in success rate, where Wake Forest sits at the 16th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Wake Forest
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Wake Forest · 2018-present
60% home win rate vs 48% on the road. margin runs +7.5 better at home. Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium seats 31,500, averaging 95% full (29,909 attendance, 27 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Demond Claiborne and Ty Clark III split the carries (169/199 vs 30/199) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Carlos Hernandez (WR) and Eni Falayi (TE) split the targets (66/90 vs 24/90) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Eni Falayi produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 7 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 8 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Wake Forest’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.5% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 198-play sample) — mid-pack, 60 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
69°F average kickoff temp; 9% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 76 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Wake Forest's 2014–2025 record is 75-72. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1908 · 118 seasons · .406 win rate
Wake Forest has 5,400 undergraduates and just won nine games in a first-year coach's debut — the most wins any Wake Forest first-year coach has ever produced. The model outlasted the man who built it. That is the whole argument.
Wake Forest is the smallest school in the Power conferences by enrollment, and the program has spent twenty years making that fact irrelevant. The 2006 ACC championship and Orange Bowl appearance came from a 5,400-student campus. The quarterback pipeline — Riley Skinner, John Wolford, Sam Hartman — came from a recruiting class that every school the Deacons compete against would have passed on. Dave Clawson's decade of bowls and an 11-3 peak in 2021 proved the model was repeatable. Then Clawson stepped away after 2024 and Winston-Salem braced for the thing that usually follows when a small program loses the coach who made it work.
Jake Dickert, hired from Washington State, went 9-4 in year one and won the Duke's Mayo Bowl 43-29 over Mississippi State — the most wins any Wake Forest first-year coach had ever managed. The program signed Dickert to a long-term extension in December 2025. The bowl MVP was Robby Ashford, who is now out of eligibility, and the 2026 quarterback situation is unresolved. The model is intact. The personnel question is open.
The 2026 question in Winston-Salem is the one Dickert's debut made worth asking: is this the floor of an era, or was year one the high? Wake Forest has answered that question the same way every time it has been asked — by finding a quarterback nobody else wanted and turning him into a system piece that works. The 2006 answer was an ACC title. The 2025 answer was nine wins. The 2026 answer starts at quarterback.
Patient, development-first football: redshirt early, install the slow-mesh or run-pass option system, and out-execute teams with deeper rosters. Wake Forest recruits the three-star prospect other schools deprioritize and turns the deliberate development timeline into a competitive advantage over four years. Defense is sound by design rather than imposing by personnel. The Demon Deacons do not out-talent anyone — they out-develop, and the model has produced NFL quarterbacks from a private school in Winston-Salem that most recruiting services ignore.
Wake Forest 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.13 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4
Wake Forest: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
ACC Standing · 2025
Wake Forest is 11th of 17 in the ACC at 4-4. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 7-2 |
| 2 | Virginia | 7-3 |
| 3 | Georgia Tech | 6-2 |
| 4 | Miami | 6-2 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 6-2 |
| 6 | SMU | 6-2 |
| 7 | NC State | 5-4 |
| 8 | California | 4-4 |
| 9 | Clemson | 4-4 |
| 10 | Louisville | 4-4 |
| 11 | Wake Forest | 4-4 |
| 12 | Stanford | 3-5 |
| 13 | Florida State | 2-6 |
| 14 | North Carolina | 2-6 |
| 15 | Virginia Tech | 2-6 |
| 16 | Boston College | 1-7 |
| 17 | Syracuse | 1-7 |
Coaching Era · Wake Forest
Jake Dickert in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1923
The Demon Deacon (the costumed top-hat-and-tails figure) is one of the most-distinctive mascots in CFB. Born of a 1923 student-cheer joke about the strict Baptist school's 'Deacons' — the mascot leans into the contradiction. Acrobatic sideline routines became viral in the 2010s.
since 1895
Wake's color combination (old gold + black) is the program's defining visual marker — distinct from competitor schools' brighter palettes. The metallic-gold helmet decals reflect light unusually under stadium lighting; the Reggie Williams-era 2006-2008 teams photographed at twilight became the program's iconic imagery.
since 1888
Wake Forest is in a three-way in-state Tobacco Road football rivalry with UNC and NC State. Smallest of the three programs by enrollment, frequently underestimated, occasionally winning the round-robin. The 2024 ACC realignment continues to test the rivalry continuity.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Wake Forest wins the ACC and reaches the Orange Bowl — the most improbable major-bowl run of its era
2021
A program-best modern season behind the slow-mesh offense and a Top-25 finish
2025
A new coach goes 9-4 and wins the Duke's Mayo Bowl, proving the model survived Clawson's exit
Moment of the Year · Wake Forest · 2025
Week 19 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — win 29-43 (away). Last 5 postseason: 3-2.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–20269 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Wake Forest · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Wake Forest · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Wake Forest
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4
Coaching Era · Wake Forest
Moment of the Year · Wake Forest · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline