CFB Zeitgeist Score
49
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by long run at the 76th percentile.
Dylan Carson
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
419 RUSH YDS · 4 RUSH TD · 91 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Air Force for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Air Force
Returning around him
- 63% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- Transfer portal: -4 net (0 in / 4 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Air Force · Last season: 4-8 · 2026 recruiting class #129
RB · AIR FORCE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Dylan Carson
- 4
- #5
- 6-0 | 215 lb
- Marysville, WA
Heisman Heat
#3990
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2023–2025-15%
Down 15% — context-dependent (injury / role change?).
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Air Force
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Dylan Carson
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Dylan Carson
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 12g
419Rush yards
91Carries
4Rush TDs
Per game
34.9Rush yards
8Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
453.9Rush yards
99Carries
4Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 419): needs 331/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 419): needs 581/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 419): needs 1,081/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 4): needs 6/game over remaining 1.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 4): needs 11/game over remaining 1.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 4): needs 16/game over remaining 1.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Dylan Carson's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Air Force, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
91 75th
YDS
419 73rd
YPC
4.6 51st
TD
4 79th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 49-13vs Bucknell | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 1 | 17 | |
| Wk 3 | L 30-49@ Utah State | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 | 17 | |
| Wk 4 | L 37-49vs Boise State | 16 | 109 | 6.8 | 1 | 64 | Season-high 109 yds |
| Wk 5 | L 35-44vs Hawai'i | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 6 | L 31-34@ Navy | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 7 | L 48-51@ UNLV | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 8 | W 24-21vs Wyoming | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 10 | L 17-20vs Army | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 11 | W 26-16@ San José State | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 12 | L 16-26@ UConn | 11 | 58 | 5.3 | 2 | 14 | |
| Wk 13 | L 3-20vs New Mexico | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 14 | W 42-21@ Colorado State | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Total | 91 | 419 | 4.3 | 4 | 64 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Air Force9-4HC: Troy Calhoun · Run-heavy, slow tempo
2025Air Force4-8HC: Troy Calhoun · Run-heavy
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 419 | #199/735 | 73rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 4 | #154/739 | 79th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.6 | #364/735 | 51st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.10 | #209/362 | 43rd pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 79 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 10.7% | #296/738 | 60th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 91 | #187/739 | 75th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 64 | #88/733 | 88th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 13.7% | #387/738 | 48th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 12.8% | #277/738 | 63rd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 12.6% | #277/738 | 63rd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 12.1% | #262/738 | 65th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 5.1% | #436/738 | 41st pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 4.5% | #481/738 | 35th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 0.0% | #564/738 | 24th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 37.7 | 4.8 | 0.3 |
| Road6g | 32.2 | 3.9 | 0.3 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins4g | 33.0 | 4.6 | 0.2 |
| Losses8g | 35.9 | 4.2 | 0.4 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 43.0 | 4.3 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 26.8 | 4.4 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
49Mid-pack
Production sits in the middle of the position cohort across the board.
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.1Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Dylan CarsonAir ForceJordan BrunsonMiami (OH)· 76% simTae MeadowsTroy· 74% simBill DavisLouisiana· 74% sim
Long run
Rush TDs
Carries
Rush yards
Yards / carry
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Marcus Major’s 2024 season.
Marcus Major
87%match
#2
Rashad Amos
84%
#3
Tavierre Dunlap
84%
#4
Vavae Malepeai
84%
#5
Adam Cofield
83%
Matches Marcus on
Yards / carry
Weight
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Dedrick Mills’s path through Nebraska.
Dedrick Mills
98%match
#2
Joshua Samuel
98%
#3
Kedrick Reescano
95%
#4
Adam Mohammed
94%
#5
Garrett Groshek
94%
Matches Dedrick on
Yards per carry
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Darvon Hubbard's junior season at Temple (2022).
Darvon Hubbard
87%match
#2
Shomari Lawrence
85%
#3
Kobe Lewis
84%
#4
Brenden Brady
84%
#5
Dominic Richardson
83%
Matches Darvon on
EPA / carry (adj)
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Yards / carry
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Troy Calhoun
Pass share
20.0%
163 pass / 650 run
Plays / game
67.8
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
10.6%
151 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
Troy Calhoun
Air Force
2025
Troy Calhoun
Air Force
Played his entire career under Troy Calhoun.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMarysville, WA
Height6'0"
Weight215 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey5
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamAir Force
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.