The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Troy Calhoun

Followed Fisher DeBerry. Troy Calhoun moved Air Force from Regional Program I to National Program III in 20 seasons.

139–97
2007–now · 1 stint
← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 4th career season — faster than 19% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #505 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Air Force, 20 seasons (active)
+4.2
Regional Program I → Regional Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

10%20%Air Force2007–2026▼ 5.3pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Air Force10.8pt#115 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

20–17 against his rivals. Just 1–8 against Rocky Long.

Rivalry record
20–17
54.1% · 2 rivals
One-score games
35–44
44.3% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Army11–858%
Navy9–950%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Rocky Long1–8
9 meetings, 2007–2018
’07 L’08 W’11 L’12 L’13 L’14 L · blew a 1-pt lead’15 L · blew a 7-pt lead’17 L · blew a 9-pt lead’18 L · blew a 3-pt lead
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–1 0.0%
Power Program
9–24 27.3%
National Program
11–14 44.0%
Regional Program
91–55 62.3%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.81
#8 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.38
#22 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2007–now
Air Forcecaretaker
Regional Program I → National Program III
Troy Calhoun moved Air Force from Regional Program I to National Program III in 20 seasons.

3rd-best Air Force tenure of 6 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+48.4 pts
#2 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+24.6 pts
#18 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Fisher DeBerry (1984–2006).

Season20072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record9–48–58–59–47–66–72–1010–38–610–35–75–711–23–310–310–39–45–74–80–0
PostseasonW bowlL bowlW CFPW bowlW bowlW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#111#122#114#109#121#107#107#89#112#103#136#129#136
Style — pass rate
Pass rate20.617.215.415.619.114.316.411.99.812.917.120.115.3
Coordinators
OCMike ThiessenMike ThiessenMike ThiessenMike ThiessenMike ThiessenMike ThiessenMike ThiessenMike ThiessenMike ThiessenMike ThiessenMike ThiessenMike ThiessenMike Thiessen
DCSteve RussSteve RussSteve RussSteve RussJohn RudzinskiJohn RudzinskiJohn RudzinskiJohn RudzinskiBrian KnorrBrian KnorrBrian KnorrBrian KnorrSteve Russ
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense61886660728785817468418065
Defense6625571336706848856236089
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%18.915.215.715.113.69.015.710.810.79.713.417.29.8
Red-zone pass%10.65.411.47.211.95.012.88.05.69.64.712.318.2
4th-down go%opp. territory42.040.622.750.050.045.523.150.035.338.944.462.8
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
2
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
48
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-46
#184 of 187 FBS stints
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
4.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
49.1
position-weighted
Net
-44.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Tim Mcclendon (LB) from Air Force
Biggest loss: Jacob Kilzer (QB) to North Dakota State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Steve Russ → John Rudzinski · 2018the system held
35th pct53rd pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: John Rudzinski → Brian Knorr · 2022the system held
58th pct74th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: Brian Knorr → Steve Russ · 2026
0th pct89th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
200 lbs
6′1″ avg · #690 of 767 · less than most
Running back
211 lbs
5′11″ avg · #236 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
191 lbs
5′11″ avg · #472 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
245 lbs
6′6″ avg · #370 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Linebacker
231 lbs
6′2″ avg · #280 of 772 · a typical amount
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows LS from high school
100%
#12 of 12 stints
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Western Michigan 38–24 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2015: Lost to California 36–55 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl2016: Beat South Alabama 45–21 CFP2019: Beat Washington State 31–21 Cheez-It Bowl2021: Beat Louisville 31–28 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl2022: Beat Baylor 30–15 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl2023: Beat James Madison 31–21 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Austin Cutting (2019), Jordan Jackson (2022), Trey Taylor (2024)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Trey Taylor (2023)

139–97