The Zeitgeist List · Coaching

Where the jobs stand

Every active FBS head-coaching job, with the chance its coach is out by the end of this season: our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract. The outcome counted is being pushed out over results: a firing, a forced resignation, a mutual parting, a contract not renewed. A coach who leaves for a better job or retires on his own terms is not counted. Nothing appears for a coach until his team has played 3 games.

The other way out: who gets poached, the chance a coach leaves for a bigger job.

What last week’s games were worth

The coaches whose last game moved their number most: where each stands now, and where he would stand had it gone the other way. Both outcomes are priced on the model as it stood before kickoff.

Coach	Last game	Now	The other way
Ricky Rahne Old Dominion	L vs. Georgia Southern	43%	30% had he won
Chris Creighton Eastern Michigan	L vs. Toledo	41%	29% had he won
Greg Schiano Rutgers	W vs. Maryland	24%	34.6% had he lost
Sonny Cumbie Louisiana Tech	W vs. UL Monroe	11%	21% had he lost
Sean Lewis San Diego State	W vs. Fresno State	19%	30% had he lost
Mike Uremovich Ball State	W vs. Bowling Green	28%	38% had he lost
Derek Mason Middle Tennessee	W vs. Florida International	13%	23% had he lost
Dell McGee Georgia State	L vs. James Madison	19%	9% had he won

Boiling

35% and up · 8 coaches

#	Chance	Coach	Year	Games	Buyout
1	57%	Bryant Vincent UL Monroe	3	6	$1,200,000
2	54%	Mike Locksley Maryland	8	7	$13,395,417
3	54%	Joe Moorhead Akron	5	7	$664,063
4	53%	Scotty Walden UTEP	3	7	$1,541,667
5	49%	Tim Albin Charlotte	2	7	$2,041,667
6	43%	Ricky Rahne Old Dominion	6	7	$687,886
7	43%	Timmy Chang Hawai'i	5	7	$57,576
8	41%	Chris Creighton · long tenure Eastern Michigan	13	8	$1,500,000

Hot

20–35% · 13 coaches

#	Chance	Coach	Year	Games	Buyout
9	34%	Dave Doeren · long tenure NC State	14	6	$13,129,456
10	31%	Jeff Choate Nevada	3	6	$2,700,000
11	28%	Mike Uremovich Ball State	2	7	$1,200,000
12	28%	Brent Key Georgia Tech	4	6	$11,123,333
13	26%	Rich Rodriguez West Virginia	2	7	$7,645,833
14	24%	Chuck Martin · long tenure Miami (OH)	13	7	$2,250,000
15	24%	Greg Schiano Rutgers	7	6	$23,735,156
16	23%	Eddie George Bowling Green	2	7	$1,676,220
17	22%	Mark Carney Kent State	2	7	$434,272 imputed
18	22%	Blake Anderson Southern Miss	1	6	—
19	22%	Scott Abell Rice	2	7	—
20	21%	Gerad Parker Troy	3	6	$2,025,000
21	20%	Clark Lea Vanderbilt	6	7	$10,855,616 imputed

Warm

10–20% · 23 coaches

#	Chance	Coach	Year	Games	Buyout
22	19%	Sean Lewis San Diego State	3	7	$4,851,113
23	19%	Dell McGee Georgia State	3	6	$1,663,350
24	19%	Jeff Lebby Mississippi State	3	6	$11,006,250
25	18%	Lance Leipold Kansas	6	6	$22,930,000
26	18%	Tyson Helton Western Kentucky	8	7	$2,916,007
27	17%	Phil Longo Sam Houston	2	7	$2,868,750
28	17%	Jerry Mack Kennesaw State	2	7	$1,800,000
29	16%	Bill O'Brien Boston College	3	6	—
30	15%	Tony Sanchez New Mexico State	3	7	$2,077,083
31	15%	Scott Satterfield Cincinnati	4	6	$12,008,333
32	15%	P.J. Fleck · long tenure Minnesota	10	6	$26,600,000
33	13%	Troy Calhoun · long tenure Air Force	20	6	$4,250,216 imputed
34	13%	Butch Jones Arkansas State	6	7	$2,245,833
35	13%	Derek Mason Middle Tennessee	3	7	$3,083,333
36	13%	Mike Norvell Florida State	7	7	$58,667,708
37	13%	Bill Belichick North Carolina	2	6	$20,833,333
38	12%	Fran Brown Syracuse	3	6	—
39	12%	K.C. Keeler Temple	2	7	—
40	11%	Major Applewhite South Alabama	3	7	$1,844,267
41	11%	Jay Sawvel Wyoming	3	7	$3,691,667
42	11%	Ken Niumatalolo San José State	3	7	$4,012,500
43	11%	Sonny Cumbie Louisiana Tech	5	6	$875,000
44	11%	Barry Odom Purdue	2	7	$25,125,000

Cool

under 10% · 93 coaches

#	Chance	Coach	Year	Games	Buyout
45	9.8%	Tony Elliott Virginia	5	7	$11,175,000
46	9.7%	Dave Aranda Baylor	7	6	$15,082,833 imputed
47	9.5%	Shane Beamer South Carolina	6	6	$27,903,958
48	9%	Brent Venables Oklahoma	5	6	$36,158,333
49	9%	Deion Sanders Colorado	4	6	$33,625,000
50	9%	Kenny Dillingham Arizona State	4	6	$24,683,333
51	8%	Willie Simmons Florida International	2	7	$1,550,602 imputed
52	8%	Alonzo Carter Sacramento State	1	7	—
53	7%	Brian Newberry Navy	4	6	—
54	7%	Pat Narduzzi · long tenure Pittsburgh	12	7	$27,570,374 imputed
55	7%	Blake Harrell East Carolina	2	7	$2,245,833
56	6%	Joe Harasymiak Massachusetts	2	7	$5,200,000
57	6%	Mike Elko Texas A&M	3	7	$21,875,000
58	6%	Kirk Ferentz · long tenure Iowa	26	6	$25,729,167
59	6%	Dowell Loggains App State	2	7	$2,450,000
60	6%	Bret Bielema Illinois	6	6	$49,491,667
61	5%	Eli Drinkwitz Missouri	7	7	$28,875,685
62	5%	Tre Lamb Tulsa	2	7	—
63	5%	Scott Frost UCF	2	6	$13,793,750
64	5%	Dabo Swinney · long tenure Clemson	18	6	$60,000,000
65	5%	Pat Fitzgerald Michigan State	1	7	—
66	5%	Jedd Fisch Washington	3	7	$33,686,666
67	5%	Clay Helton Georgia Southern	5	7	$3,159,375
68	4%	Kirby Moore Washington State	1	7	—
69	4%	Bronco Mendenhall Utah State	2	6	$11,270,153
70	4%	Luke Fickell Wisconsin	4	6	$27,493,333
71	4%	Jeff Monken · long tenure Army	13	6	$7,700,000
72	4%	Sonny Dykes TCU	5	6	$26,396,475 imputed
73	4%	Matt Drinkall Central Michigan	2	7	$2,000,000
74	3%	Pete Lembo Buffalo	3	7	$2,205,000
75	3%	Ryan Carty Delaware	2	7	—
76	3%	Michael Desormeaux Louisiana	5	7	$1,847,708
77	3%	Tavita Pritchard Stanford	1	7	—
78	3%	Ryan Beard Coastal Carolina	1	7	—
79	3%	Alex Mortensen UAB	1	7	—
80	3%	Zach Kittley Florida Atlantic	2	6	$5,083,333
81	2%	Ryan Silverfield Arkansas	1	7	—
82	2%	Manny Diaz Duke	3	6	—
83	2%	Casey Woods Missouri State	1	7	—
84	2%	Rhett Lashlee SMU	5	6	$6,169,714 imputed
85	2%	David Braun Northwestern	4	6	—
86	2%	Willie Fritz Houston	3	7	$10,375,000
87	2%	Tony Gibson Marshall	2	7	$4,166,667
88	2%	Jimmy Rogers Iowa State	1	6	—
89	2%	Tosh Lupoi California	1	7	—
90	2%	Lance Taylor Western Michigan	4	7	$2,358,750
91	2%	Jim Mora Colorado State	1	6	—
92	1%	Brent Brennan Arizona	3	6	$10,650,000
93	1%	Lincoln Riley USC	5	7	$52,466,918 imputed
94	1%	Matt Campbell Penn State	1	7	—
95	1%	Kyle Whittingham Michigan	1	6	—
96	1%	Steve Sarkisian Texas	6	6	$60,307,500
97	1%	Eric Morris Oklahoma State	1	6	—
98	1%	Jeff Brohm Louisville	4	7	$33,633,333
99	1%	Matt Entz Fresno State	2	7	$4,800,000
100	1%	Will Hall Tulane	1	6	—
101	1%	Josh Heupel Tennessee	6	7	$37,500,000
102	1%	Joey McGuire Texas Tech	5	6	$9,940,761
103	1%	Alex Golesh Auburn	1	6	—
104	1%	G.J. Kinne Texas State	4	6	$9,553,125
105	1%	Dan Mullen UNLV	2	7	$11,433,333
106	1%	Kalani Sitake · long tenure BYU	11	6	—
107	1%	Jeff Traylor UTSA	7	7	$11,165,000
108	<1%	Matt Rhule Nebraska	4	7	$49,612,500
109	<1%	James Franklin Virginia Tech	1	7	—
110	<1%	Collin Klein Kansas State	1	6	—
111	<1%	Jason Candle UConn	1	6	—
112	<1%	JaMarcus Shephard Oregon State	1	7	—
113	<1%	Dan Lanning Oregon	5	6	$56,733,333
114	<1%	Jon Sumrall Florida	1	7	—
115	<1%	Charles Kelly Jacksonville State	2	7	$3,470,833
116	<1%	Lane Kiffin LSU	1	7	—
117	<1%	Charles Huff Memphis	1	8	—
118	<1%	Kirby Smart · long tenure Georgia	11	7	$105,107,583
119	<1%	Spencer Danielson Boise State	3	6	$6,650,025
120	<1%	Will Stein Kentucky	1	7	—
121	<1%	Pete Golding Ole Miss	1	6	—
122	<1%	Neal Brown North Texas	1	6	—
123	<1%	Mike Jacobs Toledo	1	7	—
124	<1%	Kalen DeBoer Alabama	3	7	$60,843,750
125	<1%	Brian Hartline South Florida	1	7	—
126	<1%	Jake Dickert Wake Forest	2	7	—
127	<1%	Ryan Day Ohio State	8	7	$70,916,667
128	<1%	Jamey Chadwell Liberty	4	7	$27,445,742 imputed
129	<1%	Tim Polasek North Dakota State	1	7	—
130	<1%	Mario Cristobal Miami	5	6	$33,221,422 imputed
131	<1%	Marcus Freeman Notre Dame	5	7	$37,422,163 imputed
132	<1%	Bob Chesney UCLA	1	6	—
133	<1%	Morgan Scalley Utah	1	6	—
134	<1%	John Hauser Ohio	1	7	—
135	<1%	Billy Napier James Madison	1	8	—
136	<1%	Jason Eck New Mexico	2	6	$5,195,833
137	<1%	Curt Cignetti Indiana	3	7	$56,700,000