The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Zach Kittley

4–8
2025–now · 1 stint
← all coaches

In his own words

Self-inflicted wounds; we got to clean that up
Upressonline · · the day after Florida Atlantic's 2026 opener
We gotta be great all around. We’ve got to communicate great, we’ve got to make sure we line up properly, we’ve got to tackle
Upressonlinethe day before the opener
I’m excited; we’ve got a lot of continuity back. Just excited about the leadership and maturation we’ve had going into the new year
Upressonline9 days before the opener

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFLORIDA ATLANTICRegional Programthe building-block levelFlorida Atlantic, 2025: 4-8, Regional Program III2025Florida Atlantic, 2026: in progress, Regional Program III2026-1.4One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Florida Atlantic, 2 seasons (active)
−1.4
Regional Program III → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%60%Florida Atlantic2025–2026▼ 10.6pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

One-score games
2–0
100.0% · margin ≤8
Buyout owed
$5,083,333 (est.)
bigger than 43% of FBS buyouts
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0–1 0.0%
National Program
1–3 25.0%
Regional Program
2–2 50.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Defense marginal impact
-0.19
#265 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2025–now
Florida Atlantic
too new to grade yet

5th-best Florida Atlantic tenure of 9 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-3.1 pts
#125 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-38.1 pts
#202 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Tom Herman (2023–2024).

Season20252026Trend
Record & result
Record4–80–0
Postseason
Recruiting rank#85#130
Style — pass rate
Pass rate62.151.5
Coordinators
OC
DCBrett DewhurstBrett Dewhurst
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense4455
Defense95
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%61.155.8
Red-zone pass%53.745.0
4th-down go%opp. territory53.8
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
60
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
66
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-6
#7 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 230 lbs
across 42 of 60 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+0.7 lbs
#219 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#234 of 255 · less than most
Top states: FL (8), GA (6), TX (5), LA (5), OH (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
53.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
53.2
position-weighted
Net
+0.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Drew Devillier (QB) from Rice
Biggest loss: Cam Fancher (QB) to UCF
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys D-line via the portal
86%
#12 of 239 stints
Buys Edge via the portal
78%
#21 of 208 stints

AI Narratives — “Florida Atlantic — stat check”.

4–8
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.