The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Dan McCarney

Followed Todd Dodge. Dan McCarney moved North Texas from Regional Program VI to Regional Program V in 5 seasons.

The builder
78–117
1995–2015 · 2 stints
Iowa StateNorth Texas
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerIOWA STATENORTH TEXASNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelIowa State, 1995: 3-8, Regional Program III1995Iowa State, 1996: 2-9, Regional Program IIIIowa State, 1997: 1-10, Regional Program IIIIowa State, 1998: 3-8, Regional Program IIIIowa State, 1999: 4-7, Regional Program IIIIowa State, 2000: 9-3, Regional Program IIIIowa State, 2001: 7-5, Regional Program IIIowa State, 2002: 7-7, Regional Program IIowa State, 2003: 2-10, Regional Program IIIowa State, 2004: 7-5, Regional Program IIIowa State, 2005: 7-5, Regional Program IIowa State, 2006: 4-8, Regional Program I2006+5.6North Texas, 2011: 5-7, Regional Program V2011North Texas, 2012: 4-8, Regional Program VNorth Texas, 2013: 9-4, Regional Program VNorth Texas, 2014: 4-8, Regional Program VNorth Texas, 2015: 0-5, Regional Program V2015+5.1One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Iowa State, 12 seasons
+5.6
Regional Program III → Regional Program I.
North Texas, 5 seasons
+5.1
Regional Program V → Regional Program V.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%North Texas2011–2015▲ 7.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

6–6 against his rivals. Winless in 5 tries against Mack Brown.

Rivalry record
6–6
50.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
28–31
47.5% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–7
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Iowa6–650%
The toughest matchup
vs. Mack Brown0–5
5 meetings, 1998–2006
’98 L’99 L’02 L’03 L’06 L
0% win rate across a real, 5-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–7 0.0%
Blue Blood
2–13 13.3%
Power Program
7–36 16.3%
National Program
10–24 29.4%
Regional Program
49–41 54.4%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.56
#309 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.17
#258 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2011–2015
North Texascaretaker
Regional Program VI → Regional Program V
Dan McCarney moved North Texas from Regional Program VI to Regional Program V in 5 seasons.

13th-best North Texas tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-40.7 pts
#207 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-30.5 pts
#199 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Todd Dodge (2007–2010) · succeeded by Seth Littrell (2016–2022).

Season20112012201320142015Trend
Record & result
Record5–74–89–44–80–5
Postseason—————
Recruiting rank———#103#94
Style — pass rate
Pass rate———41.348.3
Coordinators
OC———Mike CanalesMike Canales
DC———John SkladanyChris Cosh
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense———141
Defense———3912
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%———36.040.2
Red-zone pass%———29.837.3
4th-down go%opp. territory———10.332.5
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Mike Canales → Mike Canales · 2015
14th pct1st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 36.0% → 40.2% (+4.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 72% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: John Skladany → Chris Cosh · 2015
39th pct12th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
22–32
1995–2006
Iowa Statecaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program I
Dan McCarney moved Iowa State from Regional Program III to Regional Program I in 12 seasons.

7th-best Iowa State tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Walden (1987–1994) · succeeded by Gene Chizik (2007–2008).

11 NFL Draft picks: Troy Davis (1997), Tim Kohn (1997), Oliver Ross (1998), Reggie Hayward (2001), Sage Rosenfels (2001), James Reed (2001), Mike Banks (2002), Seneca Wallace (2003) + 3 more

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