3rd-best North Carolina tenure of 17 by the numbers.
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+11.6 pts
#59 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-25.9 pts
#191 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Followed Dick Crum (1978–1987) · succeeded by Bill Belichick (2025–2026).
Roster construction · portal era
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Portal arrivals
26
3.2★ avg rating
Portal departures
78
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-52
#155 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Howard Sampson On3 modeled · $2,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 247 lbs
across 21 of 26 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+9.1 lbs
#24 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#4 of 255 · more than most
Top states: GA (6), FL (4), NC (2), TX (2), TN (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
57.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
60.6
position-weighted
Net
-3.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Max Johnson (QB) from Texas A&M
Biggest loss: Tad Hudson (QB) to Coastal Carolina
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-Chris Kapilovic / co-Seth Littrell → Seth Littrell · 2015
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 47.0% → 41.5% (-5.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 88% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Seth Littrell → co-Chris Kapilovic / co-Gunter Brewer · 2016
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 41.5% → 46.4% (+5.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 57% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Chris Kapilovic / co-Gunter Brewer → Chris Kapilovic · 2018
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 43.0% → 45.5% (+2.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 82% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: co-Dan Disch / co-Ron West → Gene Chizik · 2015
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Gene Chizik → John Papuchis · 2017the system held
2-season window either side.
DC: co-Jay Bateman / co-Tommy Thigpen → co-Charlton Warren / Gene Chizik / co-Tommy Thigpen · 2022the system held
2-season window either side.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
224 lbs
6′3″ avg · #95 of 767 · more than most
Running back
215 lbs
5′11″ avg · #134 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
192 lbs
6′0″ avg · #450 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
241 lbs
6′4″ avg · #520 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
311 lbs
6′4″ avg · #310 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
288 lbs
6′4″ avg · #303 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
229 lbs
6′2″ avg · #362 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
194 lbs
6′0″ avg · #178 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows P from high school
80%
#29 of 29 stints
Grows K from high school
89%
#52 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Rutgers 21–40 Quick Lane Bowl2015: Lost to Baylor 38–49 Russell Athletic Bowl2016: Lost to Stanford 23–25 CFP2019: Beat Temple 55–13 Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman2020: Lost to Texas A&M 27–41 Capital One Orange Bowl2021: Lost to South Carolina 21–38 Duke's Mayo Bowl2022: Lost to Oregon 27–28 San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl2023: Lost to West Virginia 10–30 Duke's Mayo Bowl2024: Lost to UConn 14–27 Wasabi Fenway Bowl
116 NFL Draft picks: Darrell Hamilton (1989), Torin Dorn (1990), Kevin Donnalley (1991), Brian Bollinger (1992), Dwight Hollier (1992), Roy Barker (1992), Deems May (1992), Thomas Smith (1993) + 108 more
3 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Chazz Surratt (2020), Omarion Hampton (2023), Omarion Hampton (2024)
