recruitingthis cycle✓ factnew
Texas signed a top-7 recruiting class.
the contexta top-3 recruiting class in the SEC
our readfront page
Texas
3-0AP #1Latest
SEC · Steve Sarkisian, year 6 (51-20) · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 100,119 · 103,845 avg in 2026
The nationAP #1 · Coaches #1no change
The model#4 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #6 (+24.1) · FPI #2
The marketTexas by 5.5at Tennessee · our model 59% Texas · a number, not a pick
LastW 30–6 vs UTSA · Sat Sep 19 · Arch Manning 164 pass yds, 2 TD, 50 rush yds
Nextat Tennessee · Sat Sep 26 · 12 pm ET · Neyland Stadium · Texas by 5.5 · series 2-1, won the last 2 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
Texas · 2026 schedule & results3-0
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #5 | #34 | -29.5✓ | Texas State | W 59–7 140 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #5 | #4 | -2.5✗ | Ohio StateTop 10 win | W 24–23 141 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 20 | #4 | #14 | -29.5✗ | UTSA | W 30–6 130 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #4 | #24 | -5.5 | @Tennessee | |||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Oklahoma (N) | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Florida | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Ole Miss | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Mississippi State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Missouri | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @LSU | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Arkansas | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Texas A&M |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | UTSA | W 30–6 | 400 | 0 | 36:51 | +0.039 | 47.0% | 84.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Ohio State | W 24–23 | 336 | 2 | 31:28 | +0.063 | 48.7% | 102.7% | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | Texas State | W 59–7 | 516 | 1 | 29:34 | +0.459 | 50.0% | 158.0% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (3 games) | 417 | 1.0 | +0.187 | 48.6% | 115.1% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Texas spent fifteen years as the sport's punchline, climbed back to the brink under Sarkisian and Arch Manning — and then a 2025 that missed the Playoff turned the swagger into a question.
AP Poll#1 AP
Every flicker of struggle reignites the punchline the program wore for a decade — 'Texas is back?' said with a smirk. The fanbase uses it on itself now, but it wants to bury it for good.
settled
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Texas fans
Texas fans
r/CFB
▲ 2958 · 1w ago
Ohio State fans on Texas
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 10-3 · last season
Game feel51even gamescombined pts / game7th highest-scoring of 16 in the SEC
Heart rate3-2some dramain one-score games (5 of 13)10th most one-score games of 16 in the SEC
Margin+10.2competitiveavg scoring margin9th best margin of 16 in the SEC
Tempo65average paceoffensive plays / game12th fastest of 16 in the SEC
Big plays1.39highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)2nd most explosive of 16 in the SEC
Home crowd102,367avg attendance2nd biggest crowds of 16 in the SEC
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Texas has won five straight.
Hot. 9-1 over the last 10, and won the last six.
Streak W6Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 9-1
In order to be one of those first 300 people to be eligible (to enter into the field goal raffle), you had to camp out the night
The forecast
Next Sep 26
vs Tennessee · away
Season line10.0 winsover +145
SolidMethodical, ball-controlSolid
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total2 booksO/U 10
CFP championship#3 in field+550
SEC title#2 in market+225
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
Texas · the story right now
12 storylines developing
What Texas's recruiting class is really about
the open questiondoes the recruiting haul translate on the field?
power broker conflictthis cycle~readnew
Steve Sarkisian's sixth season at Texas begins with a 10-3 record and a program trying to move past an off-field feud while redefining its present-tense identity.
what happenedTexas: an off-field feud following the program. ✓ fact
our readdeveloping
playoff paththis cycle~readnew
Steve Sarkisian enters his sixth season with a 10-3 record, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions if Texas can sustain its playoff path amid shifting expectations and lingering identity gaps.
what happenedTexas: the playoff path shifting. ✓ fact
our readdeveloping
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Steve Sarkisian enters his sixth season with a 10-3 record, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions whether the coordinator-driven reshaping can sustain a national power's present tense.
what happenedTexas: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
our readbackground
marketthis cycle✓ factnew
Texas: the betting market's belief swinging.
our readdeveloping
money down2025 cycle✓ factnew
DeAndre Moore Jr. is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
DeAndre Moore Jr. is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Emmett Mosley V is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Jack Endries is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Parker Livingstone is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Tre Wisner does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
our readbackground
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Texas enters 2026 — a 10-3 record and No. 17 SP+ rating highlight a program trying to reconcile its past glory with a present that demands new proof of its national power identity.
what happenedTexas enters 2026 rated No. 17 in 2025 SP+ (+16.2), down 10 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
Died downTexas's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Texas · 2026
Outcome band · Texas · 2026Texas' most likely season is 12-3 — a conference title and a CFP semifinal. The floor is 8-5; the ceiling is 16-0.
Floor 8-5Ceiling 16-0Base 12-3
0 wins16 wins
Floor8-5A bowl game.
Base12-3A conference title and a CFP semifinal.
Ceiling16-0A conference title and a national title.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Texas · Recruiting Confidence
Texas signed the top-7 class. Talent in the door isn't the same as talent on the field.
Texas signed a top-7 recruiting class. It is a top-3 recruiting class in the SEC. A top-7 class is a program-level investment. Development timelines decide the return. The bulls are loud — the coverage treats this class as a program-level statement.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers20 bull takes
💬 fans: 2% volume · negative overall
Developing5 new this week
yesterdayTexas DT commit Jason Johnson Recaps Recruitment, Austin Trip, and Who wants to Flip him — On3
yesterdayRising RHP Harlie Wright commits to Texas Tech — news
4 days agoTexas co-DC charged with DWI — Reported
4 days agoFriday Night Longhorns Under the Lights: Week 3 schedules for Texas 2027 commitments — On3
5 days agoTexas boosters fund Bo French — Reported
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Major Player Recruit
“Texas Could Become a Major Player for Elite 2028 WR Recruit” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-16
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Near-unanimous belief in the class — which means the expectations bar just moved up before a single snap.
Next · what to watch
The obvious read is 'more talent.' The non-obvious one: a big class intensifies the depth-chart squeeze, which is itself a portal pressure the signing-day headline never mentions. Watch attrition and portal balance once camp opens — early enrollees and portal departures will tell you which of these names actually stick.
Source of record: Texas signed a top-7 recruiting class — a top-3 recruiting class in the SEC.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers20 bullish/recruiting items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: the class is real, the program is a destination again.
“Texas DT commit Jason Johnson Recaps Recruitment, Austin Trip, and Who wants to Flip him”
On3 · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Recruiting Humidor: Top Recruits for Texas-UTSA, plus where 2028 elite targets are headed this weekend”
On3 · 2026-09-18 · read ↗
“Texas RB commit Landen Williams-Callis breaks Houston-area touchdown record”
On3 CFB · 2026-09-18 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'rankings don't tell the whole story' counter -- development gaps, position holes still open.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards2% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (72%).›
This event was in 349 of 16223 board posts (2%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"I’m not so sure he’d be good at a true big money school. He still thinks he’s an east texas high school ball coach. I don’t think he’s the kinda guy that could handle a player hold"
r/LonghornNation ~ fan take
"Are we talking about the same Jeff traylor? Recruiting is his biggest strength. He’s like the east Texas Mack brown. He’s never been a x/o type coach. Was never a coordinator. Sure"
r/LonghornNation ~ fan take
Board health this week (705 posts): 20% positive · 43% neutral · 37% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Texas · Developing Confidence
Texas: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers5 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 10% volume · negative overall
Developing2 new this week
4 days agoTexas co-DC charged with DWI — Reported
5 days agoTexas boosters fund Bo French — Reported
last weekTexas excuses Sarkisian's postgame behavior — Reported
last week[USA Today] Texas politician condemned for posts targeting students at UT football game — r/CFB
last weekBob McKay, former Texas OL, dies at 78 — Reported
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Steve Sarkisian enters his sixth season with a 10-3 record, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions whether the coordinator-driven reshaping can sustain a national power's present tense.
Source of record: Texas: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“ESPN Analyst Gives Troubling Arch Manning Message Before…” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“ESPN Analyst Gives Troubling Arch Manning Message Before Texas-Tennessee”
heavy.com · 2026-09-22 · read ↗
📣Believers5 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Will Stein earns national award for upset win at Texas A&M”
Saturday Down South · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Following Florida flop in 2025, No. 1 Texas looks for a better SEC start at Tennessee - Austin American-Statesman”
news · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Texas received mixed results on special teams in non-conference play”
Beat writer · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“CONCERN: Arch Manning, Texas NEED to Fix GLARING Issue on…” — the real counter.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
“CONCERN: Arch Manning, Texas NEED to Fix GLARING Issue on Offense Before SEC Play | Texas Football”
9News · 2026-09-22 · read ↗
“This Texas headliner is bigger concern for Tennessee football than QB Arch Manning”
Knoxville News Sentinel · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
💬The boards10% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (72%).›
This event was in 1606 of 16223 board posts (10%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Thought this could be fun with a few Texas fans. It’s a daily streak challenge—last fan standing wins. If we can check football news 30 times a day during the offseason, we can pro"
r/LonghornNation ~ fan take
"/r/LonghornNation Free Talk Thread ======================================================================= ##### Today: September 22 [Last Thread]("
r/LonghornNation ~ fan take
Board health this week (705 posts): 20% positive · 43% neutral · 37% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasonsWire eventStory arc
Rival pulse
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Texas is the program that spent fifteen years explaining what it used to be, and is now remembering how to speak in present tense.
Offense: SolidTempo: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Solid
Open questions
Active arcs
Hot
Steve Sarkisian and Arch Manning face backlash over ESPN reporter controversy
How will the public and media react to Sarkisian’s and Manning’s handling of the Holly Rowe…
Cooling
Texas alters football uniform for 2026 season
What specific changes have been made to the Texas Longhorns' uniforms?
Cooling
Texas A&M vs. Missouri: Matchups That Will Decide the Game - Sports Illustrated
Can LSU secure a College Football Playoff spot with a strong performance in their key matchup?
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025 · Wk 13Fell to No. 17 in both the AP Top 25 and the CFP rankingsWeek 12 · Lost 10-35 at Georgia
- 2025 · Wk 11Climbed to No. 13 in the AP Top 25Week 10 · Won 34-31 at home over Vanderbilt
- 2025 · Wk 8Entered the AP Top 25Week 7 · Won 23-6 over Oklahoma at a neutral site
- 2025 · Wk 7Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 6 · Lost 21-29 at Florida
- 2025 · Wk 2Fell to No. 7 in the AP Top 25Week 1 · Lost 7-14 at Ohio State
Roster
Roster Reload - Texas
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22Returning Production72%High continuity
Talent Composite#2 nationally247 composite 985.2
Portal Additions22Primary repair: LB
Portal Losses28Primary pressure: RB
Draft Loss6Heavy NFL Draft loss (6) — 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#7Top-10 recruiting class
RBin 2 - Hollywood Smothersout 6 - Quintrevion WisnerStarter Risk
current room: 206 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 4 - Rasheem Bilesout 2 - Liona LefauNeed Filled
current room: 235 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Sideline-to-Sidelineranges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles
WRin 2 - Cam Colemanout 4 - DeAndre Moore Jr.Starter Risk
current room: 198 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receiver2025 profilemoves the chains on third down
Former five-star
CBin 2 - Bo Mascoeout 3 - Kobe BlackDowngrade
current room: 191 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Hybrid Nickel2025 profileTakeaway threatmoves between deep coverage and the slot the kind of DB who takes it back the other way
Homegrown
DLin 2 - Ian Geffrardout 2 - Lavon JohnsonEven
current room: 316 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Nose Anchor2025 profilecontrols the point of attack and doesn't move
Homegrown
Next man up
Full roster (112 players)
DBBo Mascoe, Derek Williams Jr., Graceson Littleton, Hayward Howard Jr., Jackson Duffey, Jelani McDonald, Jonah Williams, Jordon Johnson-Rubell, Kade Phillips, Kobe Black, McCoy Bruce, Nick Hudson, Samari Matthews, Toray Davis, Wardell Mack, Warren Roberson, Xavier Filsaime, Yaheim Riley, Zelus Hicks, Ziky Umeozulu
DLAlex January, Elijah Ali, Hero Kanu, Ian Geffrard, Isaiah Coleman, James Johnson, Josiah Sharma, Justus Terry, Maraad Watson, Myron Charles
LBBrad Spence, Brady Sarkisian, Colton Vasek, Darius Snow, Eric Garza, Jonathan Cunningham, Justin Cryer, Kosi Okpala, Markus Boswell, Rasheem Biles, Rocky Cummings, Ty'Anthony Smith, Tyler Atkinson, Zina Umeozulu
OLAndre Cojoe, Brandon Baker, Brooks Kieschnick Jr., Cole Hutson, Connor Robertson, Devin Coleman, Dylan Sikorski, Jackson Christian, Jaydon Chatman, John Turntine III, Jonte Newman, Jordan Coleman, Kaden Scherer, Laurence Seymore, Melvin Siani, Nicolas Robertson, Paris Patterson Jr., Robert Sweeney, Trevor Goosby
RBCarson Berger, Derrek Cooper, James Simon, Jett Walker, Michael Terry III, Raleek Brown, Ryan Niblett
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Texas
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Texas co-DC charged with DWI
Co-DC on a DWI charge while Sarkisian is selling national title contention — the off-field noise hits different when the staff is supposed to be the grown-up room.
- News
Texas boosters fund Bo French
Boosters dropping NIL money on French while the RB room waits on Cooper's health — Texas isn't leaving that backfield depth to chance with a top-7 class to protect.
- News
LB Ty’Anthony Smith dismissed from Texas
Smith out while Biles and Simmons are racking up Bednarik watch buzz — Sark's trimming the roster at a position that can afford the cut right now, but depth math is unforgiving in the SEC.
- News
Cole Hutson sues NCAA for eligibility
Hutson's lawsuit isn't just a personal fight — if the age-based waiver holds, Sarkisian gets an experienced OL anchor back on a line already absorbing NFL Draft attrition from a top-heavy 2025 class.
- News
AD rejects uniform redesign
Burnt Orange stays Burnt Orange — with Ohio State rolling into Austin and 6 draft picks to replace, Sarkisian's AD isn't burning bandwidth on a rebrand when the roster rebuild is the only redesign that matters right now.
- News
Texas LB Ty’Anthony Smith dismissed
Smith's dismissal thins a linebacker room that was already banking on youth — with Biles and Simmons carrying the Bednarik buzz, depth behind the stars just got shorter.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-1.4 net portal points
(raw ledger: -20.6 — unweighted, no position adjustment)RB-11.6
starter risk
S-8.9
starter risk
OT+8.1
need filled
IOL-7.8
starter risk
LB+7.1
need filled
WR-6.9
starter risk
CB-3.9
LS+2.0
low confidence
P+1.0
low confidence
DL+0.6
TE-0.2
QB-0.1
K+0.0
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★★
Dia Bell
#18 national
★★★★★
John Meredith III
#20 national
★★★★★
Tyler Atkinson
#31 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical linebacker — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Linebacker archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
26
TX · 14CA · 3FL · 3GA · 2CO · 1LA · 1MI · 1NC · 1
TX leads the 2026 class with 14 commits. National footprint reaching 8 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
100 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Texas player grew up 205 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
24th-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%146–836 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi16%18 of 110 players
Farthest1,751 miDylan Sikorski · Sumner, WA
Closest1 miConnor Robertson · Austin, TX
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 110 of 112 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
Recruiting & portal buzz
2028 4* QB Neimann Lawrence commits to Texas
2027 4* S Junior Tu'upo commits to Texas
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
How it turned out
Belief history
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
37th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
37th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
10
Vegas O/U wins
(97th among FBS)
(97th among FBS)
Market 60pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 2 books
Pollster gap
Voter spread
68 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #1, Adam Lichtenstein (South Florida Sun-Sentinel), to #5, Murray Evans (Lawton Constitution).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.
Turnover luck
Fumble luck
83% recovery rate on their own fumbles — well above the ~52% league baseline.
5 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Takeaway conversion
23% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
3 interceptions of 13 disrupted passes (10 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
14 penalties committed, 19 drawn on opponents — netting a 45-yard field-position edge.
135 penalty yards committed vs. 180 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site