Texas 59-7 Texas State (Sep 5, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Texas State · Texas

Texas State0-17

No. 5 Texas1-059Final

Sat, Sep 5 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas · Crowd 102,738

No. 5 Texas routed Texas State 59-7.

We had Texas favored. It won.

Next: Texas State lost to UTSA 31-26, Sat Sep 12

Next: Texas beat Ohio State 24-23, Sat Sep 12

Top comment in the game thread

That looked like a CFB 27 glitch that causes a rage quit. Ball went right to Biles.

Q3 6:03 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 5

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Texas an 85% chance, and the closing betting line (Texas was a 29.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Texas led by 14 after the first quarter and by 21 at the half.

FinalTexas 59-7 Texas StateTexas wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 14:11Texas State misses a 24-yard field goal as Texas leads 20-0I kinda feel bad for the Texas State offense after thatr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:11Texas fans criticize Manning for throwing an interception into triple coverageThrowing into triple coverage… yikesr/CFB game threadEh. Pretty garbage first half that somehow isn't reflected on the scoreboard.r/CFB game thread
Q3 6:03Biles intercepts Jackson as Texas fans celebrate the clean hitQuoted at the top of the page.
Q3 5:00A player faked an injury during a celebration.Oh god the fake leg cramp celly would freak me outr/CFB game thread

Texas’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Texas -29.5), at 98% for Texas (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Texas or Texas State flair (1,013 and 90); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Texas’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Texas scored on 8 of its 9 drives; Texas State on 1 of its 11.

Texas’s drives are teal, Texas State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

““That’s a catch Ryan Wingo usually makes.” No it isn’t lol. That’s actually his biggest problem.”

A fan of another team

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans were loudest in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

What it cost

Texas’s chance to make the playoff rose from 69% to 72%.

Make the playoff

Texas State · lost7% → ▼6%

Texas · won69% → ▲72%

Win the conference

Texas State · lost17% → 17%

Texas · won16% → ▼15%

Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Texas 59, Texas State 7

Texas covered −29.5 by 22.5. The total, 66, went over 61.5.

Team totals	Texas State	Texas
Total yards	349	516
Passing	20 of 29, 188 yds	26 of 34, 360 yds
Rushing	41 for 161 yds	36 for 156 yds
First downs	18	26
Third down	8 of 14	11 of 15
Fourth down	1 of 3	2 of 2
Turnovers	3	1
Penalties	3 for 30 yds	4 for 35 yds
Time of possession	30:26	29:34

Texas State leaders

Passing Brad Jackson 15 of 23, 150 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Jaylen Jenkins 6 for 34 yds; Torrance Burgess Jr. 12 for 34 yds
Receiving Tucker Cusano 3 for 58 yds; Chris Dawn Jr. 4 for 40 yds

Texas leaders

Passing Arch Manning 20 of 27, 305 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Daylan Smothers 10 for 70 yds; Raleek Brown 11 for 34 yds, 2 TD
Receiving Ryan Wingo 7 for 121 yds, 1 TD; Cam Coleman 3 for 70 yds, 2 TD

Feels like 100° to 102° through the game

98° at kickoff · feels like 100° to 102° · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 15

A feels-like 102° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 61 other games played at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 86°, with about 7 in 10 games between 78° and 93°.

September game-day temperatures at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:51 left2:36 p.m.

Texas State 0, Texas 0 · Texas 98% to win

no rain · wind 4 mph from the east · 98°

Jackson 1-yd pass to Sparks

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Austin - City/camp Mabry airport, 3.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Texas State · 7-6

Rated 34th in our preseason ratings.

W 41-10 vs Rice #225 of 667

won by 31 as a 19.5-point favorite

W 49-26 vs South Alabama #134 of 667

won by 23 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 31-14 vs UL Monroe #204 of 667

won by 17 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 41-14 @ Southern Miss #103 of 667

won by 27 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 39-42 @ Louisiana #133 of 667

lost by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 20-52 vs James MadisonTop 25 #34 of 667

lost by 32 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 37-40 @ Marshall #92 of 667

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 41-48 vs Troy #88 of 667

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

L 30-31 @ Arkansas State #147 of 667

lost by 1 as a 14.5-point favorite

W 35-3 vs Nicholls #202 of 667

won by 32 as a 32.5-point favorite

L 15-34 @ Arizona StateTop 25 #31 of 667

lost by 19 as an 18.5-point underdog

W 43-36 @ UTSA #52 of 667

won by 7 as a 4.5-point underdog

W 52-27 vs Eastern Michigan #133 of 667

won by 25 as a 13.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Texas · 10-3

Rated 5th in our preseason ratings.

W 41-27 vs MichiganTop 25 #30 of 667

won by 14 as a 4-point favorite

W 27-17 vs Texas A&MTop 25 #16 of 667

won by 10 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 52-37 vs Arkansas #32 of 667

won by 15 as a 10.5-point favorite

L 10-35 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #4 of 667

lost by 25 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 34-31 vs VanderbiltTop 25 #25 of 667

won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 45-38 @ Mississippi State #41 of 667

won by 7 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 16-13 @ Kentucky #45 of 667

won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 23-6 vs OklahomaTop 25 #16 of 667

won by 17 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 21-29 @ FloridaTop 25 #18 of 667

lost by 8 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 55-0 vs Sam Houston #148 of 667

won by 55 as a 39.5-point favorite

W 27-10 vs UTEP #95 of 667

won by 17 as a 40.5-point favorite

W 38-7 vs San José State #104 of 667

won by 31 as a 36.5-point favorite

L 7-14 @ Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667

lost by 7 as a 1.5-point underdog

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Texas’s rushing EPA against Texas State, 43 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Texas’s rushing EPA against Texas State’s defense
Texas offense, 10th percentile · Texas State defense, 53rd
Texas State’s explosive plays against Texas’s defense
Texas State offense, 77th percentile · Texas defense, 98th
Texas State’s EPA/play against Texas’s defense
Texas State offense, 95th percentile · Texas defense, 76th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Texas StateTexas

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Texas leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 1930 · Texas won the last meeting

1930Texas 36-0

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Texas State fans are in a better mood than Texas fans (61st vs 42nd among FBS fanbases), even with Texas favored.

Texas favored by 29.5 · Total 61.5

How games like this usually go

Texas by 29.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Texas State.

The books’ cut: 2.7%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 101° at kickoff.

Texas State at Texas · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin

101°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
42weather score, Harsh
Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's seven kickoff times. At DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 61, against 42 at 2:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

11 am: 46, Harsh
noon: 45, Harsh
2:30 pm: 42, Harsh (this game)
3:15 pm: 42, Harsh
4 pm: 42, Harsh
6 pm: 53, Rough
7 pm: 61, Rough

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Texas is worth +7.3 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 95th percentile.

81% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (44-10 home, 22-13 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.4 at home vs. away over 89 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 29 miles to get here.

The story going in

LB Ty’Anthony Smith dismissed from TexasAug 23, 2026

No. 5 Texas routs Texas State 59-7